April Foolish Pt 7 - All Oscar Charts Are Complete!
Monday, April 18, 2022 at 9:01AM by Nathaniel R
The annual 'April Foolish' Oscar speculation charts are up for the 95th Academy Awards. They'll be held next winter or spring in 2023 honoring the films of 2022. Normally by now we'd have a ceremony date but perhaps burnt by two years of COVID and media fallout from Oscar night, the Board of Governors is being coy about the dates for the new season. Now about these predictions...
While we did Best Picture first (knowing it would influence other categories) and posted it last, somehow we still ended up with a confused overall spread. If all of these way-too-early predicted nominations came to pass (not that that's remotely likely!) that would mean we'd have the lowest nomination tally for Best Pictures since, like, 2005 when Brokeback Mountain was the nomination leader with only 8 citations.
While we can't say necessarily that we have "faith" in these ten pictures predicted... you have to predict something with almost everything sight unseen so in the end these pictures were in the crystal ball.
- AVATAR 2 (Disney) James Cameron's long gestating sequel to his box office behemoth. The internet likes to make fun of Avatar and pretends that nobody ever liked it but they would be very wrong. It's only one of the biggest hits of all time and Cameron has defied expectations over and over again. People also predicted Titanic would tank at the box office before it opened.
- BABYLON (Paramount) Damien Chazelle is back with an original story about Old Hollywood. They love movies about showbiz.
- BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (Searchligh) Playwright/Director Martin McDonagh reunites his In Bruges co-stars and we're expecting magic. Of course it could be another Seven Psychopaths and land with a thud. You never know!
- ELVIS (Warner Bros) Baz Luhrmann's music biopic of the King of Rock n Roll. There's usually one summer release in the mix.
- THE FABELMANS (Universal) Steven Spielberg's autofiction about his adolescence and dreaming of becoming a filmmaker
- KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON (Apple/Paramount) Martin Scorsese's adaptation of the non-fiction book about the investigation into murders of Osage people in the 1920s. Last year's results proved that Apple is willing to pour money and efforts into Oscar campaigning
- POOR THINGS (Searchlight) Yorgos Lanthimos returns with another oddity so this is kind of a big swing. It's an adaptation of a darkly comic Victorian novel which has echoes of Frankenstein. Is this one "hope-dicting"? Perhaps!
- THE SON (Sony Pictures Classics) Florian Zeller brings us the second feature in his thematic trilogy which began with The Father
- THIRTEEN LIVES (MGM/UA) Ron Howard directs a narrative version of the Thai cave rescues. A story that was just made into the documentary The Rescue last year. Howard hasn't had an Oscar hit since Frost/Nixon but perhaps this one will be a maintream crowdpleaser? CODA proved they still want their heartstrings pulled in super accessible non-artsy ways.
- WHITE NOISE (Netflix) writer/director Noah Baumbach adapts the famous Don DeLillo novel about a professor pioneering the field of Hitler studies and his relationship with his fourth wife (played by Baumbach's partner Greta Gerwig)
Immediately we know we've erred by undersestimating Netflix which will surely be more present than just one picture nominee but we didn't quite have faith that Oscar would fully embrace Rustin, outside of acting and maybe screenplay. And since it's a biopic about gay civil rights icon... well, Oscar can be hard to predict when it comes to gay stories.
Other possibilities that we didn't quite predict were the journalism #MeToo drama She Said, the romantic drama Empire of Light, the biopic Till, and James Gray's Armageddon Time which we have a good feeling about (so we're perplexed that it's not higher up in multiple charts... but you try doing this. It gets confusing!)
Finally, you'll notice in Best Director there's a big predictive swing: DAVID CRONENBERG for Crimes of the Future. Consider it a Blue Velvet or Last Temptation of Christ style nomination prediction. Even if other branches can't quite deal with the reportedly shocking body horror picture maybe the directors branch will finally realize that Cronenberg is getting on in years and is hugely influential and awesome and he's never been nominated for anything and they really screwed up back in 2005 by not nominating him for A History of Violence (which is surely the closest he ever came). This isn't as outlandish as it sounds. If could happen if the film is a critical sensation. Will it be? Well we'll find out soon enough since it's in competition at Cannes next month.
Hope you enjoy the charts.
Oscar Charts *ALL NEW*
- Prediction Index
- Picture
- Director
- Lead Actress
- Lead Actor
- Supporting Actress
- Supporting Actor
- Screenplays
- Visual Charts
- Music Charts
- International Feature Film
- Animated Feature Chart
Best Director, Best Picture, David Cronenberg, Oscars (22), Punditry
Reader Comments (23)
Great picks. The only one I think is too far down your lists is Women Talking... Sarah Polley has zero misses, rarely makes films, and that cast is unbelievable. I could see it and her grabbing a lot of momentum.
I'm excited already.
I think your predictions are logical, but I don't see a Best Picture line-up directed entirely by white men. That hasn't happened for 10 years and doesn't seem likely to happen again. She Said or Till would definitely make sense just because they appeal to different perspecitves in the Academy.
In the last few years we had two winners directing foreign-language pictures and three other nominees. Even if you don't predict them, I think yoiu need some international contenders (but before Cannes it may be too early too know).
cal -- oh i absolutely agree. but since we won't even hear who picks up any of the 100s of foreign titles it's way too early to have even an inkling. with these english language pictures we know who is distributing them and whether or not they campaign for Oscars.
jules -- that's a great point. Early on i had SHE SAID in the lineup but then thought 'maybe they won't want to revisit this very painful Hollywood chapter so quickly?" and took it up. my concerns with TILL are not qualitiative based as she's a very good director but whether it will be too art film for them. Clemency was such a molasses slow burn and it's hard to picture academy member grooving to that kind of energy (although they made an exception for drive my car so...) but perhaps this one will be more accessible.
peter -- i would love to see it!
My April Foolish picks for Director would be:
- Kelly Reichardt
- Gina Prince-Bythewood
- George Miller
- David Cronenberg
- James Cameron
A little surprised not to watch Daniel Gimenez Cacho considered in the actor race for Bardo or maybe is just my desire that were more known as he deserves.
He is gaining great reviews (as always) right now for his leading performance in the theatre adaptation of Network, I'd love to watch him on stage but: "help me, i'm poor"
It would really be something if Cronenberg finally got a Best Director nomination for what is reportedly one of his most controversial and shocking films to date (according to early word) considering he’s made a few more palatable/accessible movies (relatively speaking) — he definitely would have been deserving for A History of Violence, as you mentioned. Funny story about that, though: as ostensibly mainstream-friendly as that movie was considered in comparison to most of his other films, I’ve personally never witnessed as many walkouts in a theater as I did seeing A History of Violence on opening night in a crowded multiplex. Even supposedly less extreme Cronenberg is apparently too much for a lot of people to handle.
I hope The Fabelmans flops, it's so self indulgent and is coattailing these recent "childhood story" pictures...
Thoughtful picks as always Nat - love your work on this - in April this year too ;)
Your picture line-up seems quite 'safe' for want of a better word given some of your riskier acting picks - safe and sensible - which is smart but not always like you ;)
Do we really think they'll get away without a woman in director again? I know the last two years have been amazing for women and that can't continue but I can't imagine the outrage if they go with an all male line up again...
Maybe the last two years have made me more hopeful than i should be given the 92 years preceding them.
Elazul Atwater: Love love your comment!
I rooting for a lineup with:
Aronofsky, Cronenberg, Park, Field, Fincher
morganb123 -- i suspect there has to be a year where the cards fall that way again until there's equity in directing jobs. Just as some day (when there is) the chips might fall to where its majority or even all women some random year. But it was more a case that i didn't have any strong hunches about the women in the mix this year (from this distance at least) so i used my wild swing for Cronenberg instead. I did consider predicting Maria Schrader who is amazing BUT i really do feel like there might be a general 'do we have to do this *already* ' when it comes to watching a movie about that ugly topic which is still in the very recent past and which a lot of academy members might feel complicit in still. I hope it's great i just wonder if people will be ready. Oscar tends to prefer history a little further back.
still i am personally very excited about all of the female directed movies we know about (except for the whitney houston biopic which for whatever reason i have a bad feeling about - hopefully that's wrong!). but especially TILL (since i think Clemency was so good) and WOMEN TALKING (since i always love Sarah Polley) and GODS CREATURES (since I loved-loved-loved "The Fits" from the same directors)
morganb123 -- i suspect there has to be a year where the cards fall that way again until there's equity in directing jobs. Just as some day (when there is) the chips might fall to where its majority or even all women some random year. But it was more a case that i didn't have any strong hunches about the women in the mix this year (from this distance at least) so i used my wild swing for Cronenberg instead. I did consider predicting Maria Schrader who is amazing BUT i really do feel like there might be a general 'do we have to do this *already* ' when it comes to watching a movie about that ugly topic which is still in the very recent past and which a lot of academy members might feel complicit in still. I hope it's great i just wonder if people will be ready. Oscar tends to prefer history a little further back.
still i am personally very excited about all of the female directed movies we know about (except for the whitney houston biopic which for whatever reason i have a bad feeling about - hopefully that's wrong!). but especially TILL (since i think Clemency was so good) and WOMEN TALKING (since i always love Sarah Polley) and GODS CREATURES (since I loved-loved-loved "The Fits" from the same directors)
I'm hopeful about Signourney Weaver in Avatar 2—less so knowing that Cameron gave her very little to do in the first one. Moreso thinking he might right that wrong this time. If the material is there, she's going to kill it and she's going to be Oscar-worthy...just wondering if Cameron was smart enough to give it to her.
Here's a general (nonjudgmental) thought: This "sight unseen" prediction game that lots of pundits play plants the seeds of narratives that create the facts of the Oscar race. Unless something is really bad and disqualifies itself in some way, early anticipation/expectations tend to become "fundamentals" in the race, once a film or performance starts passing tests (festival reactions, reviews, box office).
All to say—a genre or "atypical" performance dismissed as "too outside the box" in April is likely to get dismissed that way later in the year, even if they're deserving. So maybe these foolish predictions should take more of the big Michelle Yeoh swings as a rule...don't give the Oscars permission to be boring 11 months before the ceremony! You haven't (totally) done that here but c'mon, if **we're** not bullish about Signourney winning an Oscar for a motion capture performance, who will be in December?
I honestly you're either being too shy or underestimating "Everything Everywhere All at Once"...
It's a contender right away for Picture, Director, 5 acting noms (realistically 2 of them seem extremely possible), Original Screenplay (frontrunner right away), Film Editing, and it can do great at technicals (Production Design, Costume, Make Up, VFX) and specially - let's underline it - it's a wildly creative, original film that comes out - and it is raved by critics and audiences alike - after the most lazy Best Picture pick in decades (it WILL backfire in an A Beautiful Mind / Crash kind of way). There are three extremely possible Oscar wins already
Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor - the narrative of him having to actually retire from acting so early because of the lack of opportunities for Asian actors, and coming back with one of the most celebrated performances of the year, in one of the films of the year. Irresistible, it would be an "apology" to hand him the nomination AND the Oscar.
Original Screenplay - they would totally go for it.
Film Editing - the genres mixed up kind of warrant it, plus the agreement, that despite how wild the film gets, it is always understood what's going on, and that it works (only complaint about the film is, that it's a bit long, but nobody seems specially bothered by it).
VFX is also a possible win thanks to everyone's praise of how much they do with so little (and they love awarding VFX that support a story, instead of a VFX that have a story written for a film to show them off).
So if it wins 1 acting + Screenplay + Editing + 1 other technical, I think Picture is possible. I don't recall any film that this early seemed so strong - already released and reviewed - to actually win at Oscar nights. And no, after Mad Max Fury Road and Moulin Rouge!, I don't think AMPAS wouldn't find this one "avoidable", actually it really might embrace it.
It has strong narratives for PGA as well, specially if it becomes the sleeper of the year, let's see how b.o. turns out, but so far, it is starting to look good thanks to the great word of mouth.
... and of course, the cast is as likeable as "CODA"'s... SAG Ensemble nom (and maybe win) is up there, as well.
Somewhat surprisingly, if both Spielberg and Scorsese are nominated next year, it’ll be the first time they’ve EVER been nominated in the same year. The two most nominated living directors, but they’ve never been nominated alongside each other.
Jesus -- i admire your faith but I cannot imagine it picking up any acting nominations outside of Michelle Yeoh (and even that will require a majorly committed campaign which A24 doesn't always do). The Academy has historically had trouble seeing the worth of comedy, sci-fi, action films, and Asian performers, and the film has all four of those elements. It would require them overcoming several biases at once. it COULD happen. Especially in Best Picture as its fans are very passionate but I fear it's not just very out there (for them) but very out there in a blissfully silly way and Oscar hasn't liked silly very much since the 1930s.
I really really hope critics rally but critics are fickle at year's end. we'll see! It would be so fun if it could land in multiple categories.
Yeah, I agree with Nathaniel here. As much as I love the movie, I don't have too much faith in the Academy remembering a genre film that opened in April. If EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE wants to make a dent then A24 needs to campaign for it aggressively and critics need to champion it at year's end. For now I'm keeping my expectations severely low.
@Ryan T. They did with Silence of the Lambs (winner) and Get Out (Original Screenplay winner, Acting nominee), and I'd dare to make Moulin Rouge! (2 wins, released in Cannes) to the obvious precedents for a nom - even win(s) - of EEAAO
I haven't seen the film yet, I am just watching / reading the reviews and this is Mad Max: Fury Road all over again, with the difference, that there is strong passion for the performances (specially Yeoh's and Quan's). Again both narratives are almost unbeatable, when you think about it.
Yes, critics are fickle. Yes, there will be plenty of baity films in Oscar season. Yes, it can be forgotten. But...
... this film REALLY stands out from the rest. And it has been released right in the best time, to build its narratives till the year's end. Plus, just think of how many cathegories is this film in contention for... VFX, Make up, Film Editing, Sound, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume, Acting, Screenplay, Directing... it really depends only on A24 betting on it, and doing a smart campaign, not overkilling it, and letting this "discovery" feel, last.
I think both Yeoh and Quan can actually win... the fact that there's never been an Asian Lead Actor winner, and that Quan had to retire and this is his return to cinema (and why he had to retire) are two extremely huge narratives to be ignored.
Of course this is all a huge "If", but remember, there are reviewers calling it one of the best films / theater experiences of the Century. Those are strong raves to be added for the FYC ads.
Jesus -- i hope you love the film when you see it but know that it is intensely silly (while also being moving etcetera)... it's the sillinees factor (most of all) that i think will be a huge problem with stuffy awards bodies. It would be even more unusual than that year when BABE somehow became a best picture nominee (which was deserving but still a basically G rated family talking animals picture which is just so different than anything else they nominated that entire decade.)
nice that you mention "Babe". To me, it is the 2nd best film of the 90s (of course, that I've seen) and the BEST directed film of the decade (an insane challenge).
My #1 of the 90s is "Trainspotting" (2nd Best Directed). Pulp Fiction goes 3rd, and Fight Club and El Milagro de P. Tinto probably round the top 5 of the decade, in my taste.
Thanks for the predictions, Nathaniel!
I agree with the posters above: this is not the time to kill any films chances. We need to believe in them in order for the rest of the people -and eventually the Academy- to believe in them too.
I think Everything Everywhere All At Once is possible and, even if I didn't love it, I left the theater thinking it would get at least Actress and Editing. How can it not? And upon further thought, the VFX they achieved don't look like they're from a 25 million picture. Then you throw the really original screenplay in there. And then you remember Ke Huy Quan, who was amazing and... is Best Picture really out of the question? In a field of 10?
It's already tested and it has the critics and the public on its side. I'd rather predict this than whatever Ron Howard is cooking, no offense.