'Elvis', Austin Butler, and Oscar ~Best Actor/Supporting Actor Chart Updates
Thursday, June 30, 2022 at 5:36PM by Nathaniel R
Though 2022 is half over we must acknowledge that the Oscar race is only really just beginning. Oscar voters rarely pay attention, sadly, until late in the year so honors like the HCA "midyear" awards (just announced) and our own list-making of Halfway Mark Best Of the Year Thus Far surely fall on deaf ears, especially since Hollywood is deep in Emmy campaign season (well, waiting-for-Emmy-nomination seasons to be exact). Nevertheless let's talk about what's happened so far and what could happen going forward while we update the Oscar charts.
There's a lot of people saying a lot of things...
BEST ACTOR <--- Updated Chart
Of the four acting categories, this is the only one that got "All Shook Up" this past week...
That was on account of Baz Luhrmann's Elvis opening in theaters. The film's immediate embrace by audiences removes the most serious obstacle the film had. If it had been perceived as a flop it would have had an extremely difficult time being taken seriously late in the year. You can flop and still hit with the Oscars but you're about thousand percent more likely to do that if you flop DURING the heat of the season when they're considering you regardless of whether the audience turns up. That's just one of the many non-level playing field advantages late year releases have.
All of which is a long way of saying that we're feeling very good about Austin Butler's chances. He was already in our top five on the year-in-advance chart when we only had the film's genre to go on. Given that he's electric in the film and it's hard to resist those 'star is born' performances, we've booted him up to #1. This is not a 'he's going to win' prediction -- the charts are never about that pre-nominations -- we still have a lot of movies yet to enter the race. Plus he's young. He turns 31 this August so if he wins, he'll be the fourth youngest Best Actor winner of all time.
Youngest winners
- Adrien Brody (The Pianist) - 29 (one month shy of 30)
- Richard Dreyfus (The Goodbye Girl) - 30
- Marlon Brando (On the Waterfront) - 30 (just a few days shy of 31)
- Maximillian Schell (Judgment at Nuremberg) - 31 and 4 months
.... this is where Austin Butler would go if he wins as he'd be 31½ - Nicolas Cage (Leaving Las Vegas) - 32
HAS ANYTHING ELSE HAPPENED THAT WILL AFFECT BEST ACTOR?
You could point to Top Gun Maverick's historic success and suggest Tom Cruise but we'd have to giggle and then worry. Okay, now stranger things have happened at the Oscars and there has been an overall kind of lionization of Tom Cruise as THE LAST MOVIE STAR this summer but in the end we just don't think they'll think of it as an acting movie. Plus Cruise stopped chasing Oscar favor long ago (it must have hurt to lose for both Jerry Maguire and Born on the 4th of July, either of which would have aged well as wins). Regardless Top Gun Maverick will snag Oscar nominations given its #1 of the year popularity. The question is how many and can it break out of the tech categories?
In our April Foolish chart we also suggested that Viggo Mortensen could surprise if Crimes of the Future was another A History of Violence/Eastern Promises. Alas, it wasn't. Audiences didn't turn out for his third collaboration with David Cronenberg and critics weren't excited even though they were respectful. So we've removed Viggo from the chart (even though he's very good in the film) and have replaced him with the Cannes Best Actor winner Song Kang-ho for the Korean language film Broker.
Subtitled performances always have a hard time courting Oscar favor, so we didn't place him high on the chart, but Broker has at least two specific things going for it: First, it's got NEON behind it and they've already made Oscar history with Parasite; Second, Song Kang-ho was the star of Parasite so voters will be somewhat familiar with him even if they're mostly otherwise ignorant of Korean cinema (where Song is, of course, ubiquitous and a bonafide movie star).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR <-- Updated Chart
Despite our own love for Elvis and probably the Academy's too, it's unlikely that Tom Hanks is on his way to a seventh nomination. It took the Academy skipping over numerous worthy performances from him to finally welcome him back with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2019). What's more many people are citing this Elvis performance as the worst of his career. We wouldn't go that far but it is definitely a strange one. The Academy has nominated over the top acting before simply because they like the actor and/or the movie or it was "time", but all the reasons that normally help that occur won't apply to a two-time winner who just recently made an awards comeback. There's just no incentive to honor him for this. Nevertheless we have to leave him on the chart (albeit at the end of tier 3) because they will be watching and taking the movie seriously since it's a) a bit hit and b) a musician biopic which is arguably their all time favourite subgenre of movies.
The big addition to the chart, in tier 2 currently, is Ke Huy Quan for his comeback role in Everything Everywhere All At Once after his brief childhood stardom in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies. We hope A24 launches a healthy campaign for the film in all categories since it deserves it. Nevertheless it would take quite a campaign since voters ALWAYS resist acting work in genre films. We've never understood that because it's not like it's easier to do genre acting well.
Will Quan's story and performance be enough or will the Academy's longstanding resistance to Asian actors AND "silly" films block the appeal? We suspect that Michelle Yeoh is the only real bet for awards glory but it would be nice if Quan and Curtis could get some attention along the way.
Two actors emerged from Cannes as real possibilities here. There were rave reviews for Sir Anthony Hopkins grandfather role in Armageddon Time so we've moved into the top five for now because... why not? The wealth/fame satire Triangle of Sadness was the top winner at Cannes so if the Academy's acting branch responds to it we could see Woody Harrelson get an awards run for playing the captain of the messy luxury cruise. Voters do like him; 2 of his 3 Oscar nominations were for movies that were not Best Picture nominees.
How are you feeling about these two races?
Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Oscars (22), Punditry
Reader Comments (21)
I don't think Tom has a chance but he might present Best Picture.
I don't think he's the last Movie Star after him there was Leo,Julia,Sandra,Tom H and Brad then came Jim Carrey and he was HUGE bigger than Tom for a good few years so Cruise may be the last of the Movie Stars to make big money bar Bullock and DiCaprio but he's not strictly the last.
If Ke Huy Quan is not nominated I am going to lose my shit in a major, public way. Michelle Yeoh is the star, but he is the heart & soul of that movie. On subsequent viewings, I cried many times during the film, always due to his tender and touching performance. This isn't even a "comeback"--this performance is a revelation.
I suspect that the Academy will likely embrace David Lynch’s upcoming cameo in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans. Though not confirmed, gossip indicates that Lynch will play great film director John Ford. At age 15 aspiring filmmaker Spielberg briefly met Ford in his office to gather words of wisdom. It won’t be the first time that a brief role has been rewarded with a supporting Oscar.
If you have never heard Spielberg recount the events that transpired, listen to him here retell the tale. I am looking forward to seeing Lynch sink his chops into this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqIYH-FsWDM
Saw this movie yesterday and Austin is great in it. Can't say that he produced the same 'Pelvis' excitement as the original King, but he certainly has the moves down. (Spoiler Alert) - I waited for to a 'Fat Elvis' performance to convince me that he deserves the award..
Tom Hanks ruined the movie for me. Less Colonel Parker and more Elvis, please.
I have a hard time seeing Harrelson getting the nom for Triangle. It’s a great role but a very small part in the scheme of things, with equivalent screentime to Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. The film is great though and I could see it breaking into Pic Dir or Screenplay
I know it's very early, but I think Austin is getting that nomination. He's terrific.
The only thing I'm pretty sure about is Ke Huy Quan being invited to join the Academy next year.
I thought Hanks was perfect - for the movie he was in. He played Harold Ziegler to Austin Butler’s Satine.
Dustin -- i was thinking that too. It's a very Harold Zigler role. Unfortunately he doesn't have the knack for broad cartoon outlines the way that Jim Broadbent had.
Call me crazy, but I think Quan is the natural choice for the win at Supporting Actor. A24 only needs to not mess up his campaign (which already started, by the way)
Tom Cruise is bound for a career-achievement Oscar (out of competition), and THEN, he might be nominated (and win) again, for some non-blockbuster film.
But are we seriously thinking TG:M is on Mad Max: Fury Road levels of popularity and Oscar chances? I don't think so, by any means. Sound, VFX, Film Editing and maybe Song are obvious chances, and I will shrug if it gets anywhere in the top 8
I'm going to spend all season kvetching that Jack Lowden's brilliant work in BENEDICTION is overlooked, aren't I?
I think Everything Everywhere All At Once has a great shot all around… and I won’t let that optimism go until I’m convinced otherwise.
But I’m surprised to hear everyone here putting Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor. He’s Lead Actor, no?
Ke Huy Quan's role straddles the line between Lead and Supporting. I am fine with either placement though like Philip H. he feels more like a Lead to me.
Philip H. - The comparison I keep coming back to for how I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will fare in awards season is Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, another mind-bending crossover hit with rave reviews that wasn’t necessarily a major awards contender but definitely maintained enough passion to break through in a few categories. I’m currently predicting it to get in for Actress, Original Screenplay, (those two being the exact categories Eternal Sunshine was nominated in), and Picture (which Eternal Sunshine almost certainly would have been nominated for in a field of 10 nominees). It’ll take the critics going all in for it at the end of the year to be a safe bet for more than that, I think (which could very well happen, but we’ll have to see).
@Edwin
EEAAO's Oscar chances also depend heavily on what happened the year before. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind happened the year after another unusual Oscar pic actually swept the Oscars (Return of the King), so they went with something more "familiar" (the deeply flawed, in my opinion, Million Dollar Baby, safe and manipulative).
EEAAO's run happens right after Oscar chose the most safe and manipulative of the bunch, CODA, so chances are that they would actually turn their heads to something truly original - CODA's win won't age well.
EEAAO seems a no-brainer pick for Film Editing and Original Screenplay. Yeoh and Quan has two of the best narratives I've seen in years (yes, Quan should be a lead, but in Supporting he is a slam dunk for the win, if you ask me). So I am thinking - still - that at the very least, it will get those five nominations, with still strong chances for Director, VFX, Costume and Production Design, maybe Cinematography and Make up as well.... those last ones, for nominations.
Oh, regarding the supporting actress charts, I assume they are coming as well... Hsu might also be a co-lead in EEAAO, but I still think that is Curtis the real deal for a Supporting nom for the film - as she's clearly supporting and showing an amazing range in the film. Her work is not being raved enough, though... but she's SO due for some recognition... she could have an Alan Alda kind of nomination (The Aviator), based mostly in going along with the film's buzz and her dueness/likable factor.
Your point about voters possibly wanting to go in a different direction after this past year’s ceremony was so widely criticized — mostly for the slap, granted, but lost among the coverage of that was a nearly overwhelming consensus that the actual winners were mostly poor choices— is definitely worth considering, but at the moment I’m probably being a bit pessimistic in thinking that might not result in them embracing EEAAO in a big way but more likely in rallying around a more overtly populist movie in an attempt to improve their reputation among the general public (which I frankly think is a lost cause by now, but they will still try). Not that I’m criticizing Top Gun: Maverick (I haven’t seen it), but I honestly expect it to end up with more nominations than EEAAO and possibly more wins as well. That seems more like the direction they’ll want to go.
@Edwin...
a good chunk of the AMPAS isn't American (I'd dare to say that maybe even most of it?), so Top Gun: Maverick ain't going to be their thing, granted. Technicals, yes. Above the line? Picture could happen but it is an extreme longshot.
Even more so... critics are way more likely to embrace EEAAO than Top Gun: Maverick... I think that's pretty obvious. And that goes also for SAG, PGA, DGA... we need to not lose sight of the whole hurdles of the race, and the way of TG:M to Oscar night is WAAAAY more bumpy than EEAAO.
Think of Spiderman: No Way Home, for example. Reviews and money wasn't enough.
I believe Daniel Gimenez Cacho has a very good chance of being nominated as best actor next year. He's staring in Gonzalez Iñarritu's Bardo. Every movie that Gonzalez Iñarritu has ever done have been nominated for something and I think he is especially strong with actors. He's really loved in the Academy. His first film, Amores perros, was just nominated in the foreign film category. it didn't get an acting nomination, but that film launched Gael Garcia Bernal's career. Then there was 21 grams which got Naomi Watts an Benicio del Toro nominated. Babel got 2 little known actresses nominated: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. Biutiful gave the great Javier Bardem his third nomination. Birdman had MIchael Keaton, Edward Norton and Emma Stone. Finally The Revenant gave Leonardo DiCaprio his much deserved an awaited Oscar, and also nominated Tom Hardy in a surprising turn of events. That's 10 acting nominations in 6 movies.
Daniel Gimenez Cacho is a very respected actor in Mexico that has participated in several important productions and has worked with some very important authors. I think he is gonna be great.
I’m guessing that nominations will go in two extremes, rather than include the middling fare that gets nominated as 4th and 5th choices.
At one end: serious meaningful pictures that address our current unbearable and justified anxiety: Colman Domingo
At the other end: comedies that help us escape for a moment: Daniel Craig in Knives Out 2 (The Glass Onion).