Best Supporting Actress is wide open!
Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 3:12PM by Nathaniel R
Image © A24
While we can be reasonably certain who the major players are in Best Actress and Best Actor (both charts updated), can we really know about Supporting Actress yet? With Michelle Williams having vacated the Supporting Actress race it feels truly like anyone's Oscar to grab this coming March. But do we really even know who is competing? No, we do not! The shortlist also feels wide open with no locks as of yet. So here is where we are right now and where we might be heading...
The first possibilities to emerge in the spring were Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All At Once. That eccentric and extremely enjoyable film has built a lot of steam ever since and is now a credible threat for Picture/Screenplay/Editing nominations, though other category dreams feel possible but more difficult. Obviously Michelle Yeoh is a threat in Best Actress (IF Oscar voters choose to embrace this as a huge moment in her long international career, despite their aversion to genre acting) but will she have enough juice to drag in a co-star or two with her? Hsu has a large role (which always helps) and many media types are pushing for her while Curtis has the advantage of a very long and underrewarded career if the campaign is able to capitalize on it. While that whole cast is uniformly terrific, Oscar's acting branch is still extremely conservative in terms of what they view as "Great Acting" (aka biopics, heavy dramas, crying, screaming), and only very rarely embrace genre performances. You can just about count on one hand the amount of performers that have been nominated for sci-fi, action, or superheroics (all three of which apply to the movie). Comedy is also a tricky sell for voters but there are far more examples of comedic performances making it in then genre performances. In short we are hopeful and fearful for this true wild card.
No films from the summer brought forth real contenders for this category which brings us to the fall festivals.
Women Talking image © United Arts Releasing
Film critics have been helpful in terms of agreeing on the standouts of some ensemble films (most of which haven't yet opened in movie theaters) like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley for Women Talking, and Janelle Monae and Kate Hudson for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. But it's worth noting that who pundits, media, and critics push is not always what the Academy wants (consider the shift from internet-appointed Caitronia Balfe early last Oscar season to Academy favourite Judi Dench when it came time for voting on Belfast)
Critics are not as unified around other films with more than one supporting actress. While Brendan Fraser feels nearly-lockish for a Best Actor nomination for The Whale will the Academy go for either or his supporting players? The film costars the always superb Hong Chau (who Oscar passed on despite precursor love for Downsizing five years ago) and Sadie Sink who has a more divisive role but is riding a "new star!" wave of fame at the moment. Another "but who?" question pops up in terms of The Woman King. Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim have all received praise but will a consensus emerge among industry voters or will they just consider it Viola's show? What's more Babylon and Black Panther Wakanda Forever haven't yet screened so who knows how their casts will play to critics, audiences, and awards types.
In short, it feels like anything could happen but here is the guesswork for September 24th...
Reader Comments (19)
I have a weird idea that Curtis is getting the veteran nod in supporting she's more well known than Hsu who is as good as Curtis in EEAAO.
I have no idea who gets nominated after that,Smart could be in if Babylon is a hit,I think the 2 Women Talking ladies will be critics faves,Sink seems more likely than Chau and can Hathaway breakout.
If the campaign is good, Curtis gets in no problem. Her role is already iconic, darkly comic with substance, the epitome of deglam, and her unrewarded veteran status will lock in her spot. Hsu will have a much harder time getting in, as she's not a veteran, and her role will feel more "genre" to them than Curtis'.
I feel like Kerry Condon might get in. Not famous at all, but it's a -reportedly- scene stealing turn in a very buzzy film that will surely get a couple of high profile nods (Actor, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor). Critics have been very embracing of The Banshees of Inisherin and her performance.
Curtis is well-overdue and probably stands more of a chance of getting nominated than Hsu, but the latter would absolutely be my choice for a Supporting Actress nom from the movie. Lashana Lynch has already earned a spot in my personal BSA rankings, but I'm still skeptical of The Woman King's chances, however deserved I think they may be. I feel similarly about Angela Bassett in Wakanda Forever.
I'd be surprised if none of the Women Talking ladies got in, based on all the chatter. Just seems like a matter of WHO for that one.
I would love Queen Jean for "Babylon." She's my favorite part of the trailer. And Scream Queen Jamie Lee of course. My only additional thought at this early stage is McDormand gets the Judi Dench spot for "Women Talking," the case of a veteran nominee who gets in over shiny costars.
Lucky -- now i feel bad for dropping Condon (who i had much higher before) but all i heard anyone talk about was Colin this and Colin that
I feel like Isabel Huppert should be in the conversation for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. That is a real stealth performance with hidden strength. I think Lesley could get in for lead and she would bring Isabel along with her easily.
PS. Rest in peace, Louise Fletcher. Sigh.
I have Condon in my top 5. Her reviews have been INCREDIBLE and The Academy is going to love this movie. Regardless, Supporting Actress is my favorite category this year.
Could be the rare year without any mother/grandmother-of-the-lead roles nominated
I feel like it’s an error to omit Sally Field (Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies) so early in the game. Her role as Marilyn Cowan who watches for 11 months as her happily married gay son, Kit, succumbs to neuroendocrine cancer has all the earmarks of Oscar bait.
No Dolly de Leon in Triangle of Sadness?
I love both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu, both so good, so versatile, so committed.
For the rest, in the “consideration” process, it’s always fun to not only have the serious usual suspects in the important movies.
So I’m thinking, in the list of 10, Avatar 2 is going to be there. So how about an acting nom?
I suggest nominating Sigourney Weaver as the teenager Kiri in Avatar 2. Showing us how it’s all done, capturing adolescent angst and longing and bravery.
I wouldn't put Hsu ahead of Jamie Lee Curtis in the predictions.
We can assume that Yeoh has the lion's share of passion for that movie. And if there are acting coattails they're likely to benefit Curtis and Quan, who have sticky narratives of their own. Those two (IMO) also gave superior performances, not that Hsu wasn't very good because she was.
I think it's very possible (even likely?) that the HFPA and SAG will want to give Curtis some love. She's both a big movie star (with a nice Globe record) and an actor's actor and those are natural advantages for precursors.
I actually think Sheila Atim is best in show with regards to the supporting cast in THE WOMAN KING, but she'll unlikely get anything as she's like 7th at best in terms of name recognition. But I can't wait to see more of her in the future.
I'm rooting hard for Stephanie Hsu (and really everyone/everything connected to that movie) even over Curtis. I also wish Bassett's is Oscar-worthy and they randomly nominate her because her getting the first MCU acting nom would be kinda sweet.
Maybe they will change the release schedule of Allelujah... just so they could nominate Judi Dench again.. :)))
Condon, Buckley, and Foy feel fairly safe for nominations imo. Those ladt two spots are anyone's game : Hsu, Curtis, Mara, Smart, Chau, Sink, Field, Dern, Kirby, Mbuso, de Leon, Lynch, Akin, etc etc etc!
Also, why do I have a sneaking suspicion that Robbie might go Supporting for Babylon? Please God, no...
@Michael R: My sneaking suspicion is that Robbie will go supporting for “Amsterdam”, citing Christian Bale as the lead.