What Are Each Actor's Chances at Oscars Post-SAG Nominations?

By: Christopher James

After a surprise omission at the SAG Awards, what are Michelle Williams' chances at scoring an Oscar nomination for The Fabelmans?Now that the SAG Awards nominations have been announced, we have a slightly clearer picture of the acting races as we get closer to Oscar nomination morning. I use the word “slightly” because there’s always room for surprises. In fact, last year saw four acting nominees earn Oscar nominations without any precursor citations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards.

At this stage of the awards race, we have two questions to ask. Which actor with nominations from all three groups will be snubbed by Oscar? Which actor can sneak in without these precursors?

The Stats

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsYes, more precursor nominations from the central three awards bodies - Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards - means an actor has a greater chance at earning an Oscar nomination. Roughly nine out of ten actors who receive this triple crown of nominations go onto the Oscars. Now we apply that to this year’s crop of hopefuls. Thirteen actors have managed to earn nominations from all three awards bodies. Based on this data, one actor will be the big snub of Oscar nomination morning.

Likewise, if we apply the success rate of each of the precursor performances, we can see that 18 actors cited by these three awards groups will move onto the Oscars. That means two slots will come from actors who have not received any of these high profile nominations.

If anything, the Oscars have tended to skew more towards these shocking acting nominees than in years past. Last year, a whopping four acting nominees earned Oscar nominations without corresponding precursor nominations:

• Best Actress - Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers (2021)

• Best Supporting Actor - Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog (2021)

• Best Supporting Actress - Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter (2021)

• Best Supporting Actress - Judi Dench - Belfast (2021)

Which Frontrunner Will Be Snubbed?

Since we’ve already determined at least one nominee will be snubbed, let’s figure out who that might be. Since 2003, there have been 25 people who have been snubbed after receiving three major precursor nominations. We’ve divided them into four categories (seen below):

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsThe most consistent type of snub comes from a “This Had Oscar Buzz” contender, where a movie’s Oscar chances were solely for a singular performer (think Jennifer Aniston in Cake). Following that, a famous actor in an Oscar underperformer (think Lady Gaga in House of Gucci) is tied with an Anomaly from a Best Picture nominee (think Amy Adams in Arrival) for second place. In essence, if your movie is not going to be a major Best Picture player, you may find yourself snubbed.

Of the thirteen people who have scored the hat trick this year, here are the following performers that may fall into the This Had Oscar Buzz/underperforming film category:

• Viola Davis (The Woman King)

• Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

• Bill Nighy (Living)

• Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

After winning the Golden Globes last night, Angela Bassett feels more secure in her path towards an Oscar nomination. Likewise, it would be a major shock for Brendan Fraser to miss a nomination for The Whale, since he is still in the hunt for a win. That means that either Viola Davis or Bill Nighy would be the most likely snubs for Oscar.

However, we shouldn’t ignore the possibility that someone from a Best Picture nominee finds themselves missing on Oscar morning. There’s little rhyme or reason, as few predicted Amy Adams missing for Arrival or Tom Hanks missing for Captain Phillips. In both cases, they were not at the top of the pack to win. Realistically, that only hurts Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin, since Supporting Actress is wide open enough that both Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) and Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) have paths to win.

One other helpful lens is to look at these snubs by category:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsOver two-thirds of the snubs occurred in the lead acting races, compared to the supporting acting races. This only further supports that Davis and Nighy are the most in trouble heading into Oscar nomination morning.

What Nomination Combination Has The Highest Correlation With Oscar?

Not all precursors are correlative to Oscar. Getting just a Golden Globe Comedy/Musical nomination does not present you with the same odds as only having a SAG Awards nomination. For the actors who didn’t receive the perfect hat trick, here is the breakdown of success rates when it comes to receiving an Oscar nomination:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsBased on the first chart in this article, six of the 28 actors in this list will compete at the Oscars. The strongest pairing of nominations one could have includes SAG plus Critics Choice. Danielle Deadwyler, Stephanie Hsu and Paul Dano all achieved that this year. Based on the 70% success rate for actors with this precursor haul, two of these three actors will hear their names called on Oscar nomination morning. I could see any combination of these three actors 

While it is further down the chart, we must take into consideration those actors who only received a Critics Choice nomination. Six actors fall into this category this year, with likely only one of them destined for an Oscar nomination. Tom Cruise seems like the safest bet, since Top Gun: Maverick is an Oscar favorite. However, either Jessie Buckley or Janelle Monáe could earn nominations, likely in conjunction with their film breaking into Best Picture. In the war of The Fabelmans supporting actors, it seems like Dano will edge out Judd Hirsch. Or they may cancel each other out.

Finally, we have nine actors who fall in between the two scenarios we just outlined. It would be reasonable to expect three of them to earn Oscar nominations. Based on the “This Had Oscar Buzz” stats for snubs above, the most likely nominees to remove would be Ana De Armas (Blonde), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Adam Sandler (Hustle) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). Michelle Williams still feels like a good bet for The Fabelmans, even after missing at SAG. She had previously missed at SAG before earning a nomination in 2010 for Blue Valentine. From there, it feels like two out of the three of the following actors will follow Williams: Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Brad Pitt (Babylon) and Hong Chau (The Whale). 

Who Will Surprise Come Oscar Nomination Morning?

Many people correctly predicted nominations for Cruz, Plemons and Buckley last year (with Dench being the wildest of wild cards). That’s because the Oscars usually only pick surprises from a couple of buckets. Taking a look at the 23 actors who earned Oscar nominations without major precursors since 2003, here were the most frequently occurring groupings:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsMore than ⅔ of the time, these out-of-nowhere nominations are a result of coattails, either from a Best Picture nominee or Leading Actor lock. Based on the current state of the race, here are some performers that could apply to:

• Coattails from Best Picture

  • Gabriel LaBelle - The Fabelmans

  • Tom Hanks - Elvis

  • Jennifer Connelly - Top Gun: Maverick

  • Miles Teller - Top Gun: Maverick

  • Nina Hoss - Tár

  • Ben Whishaw - Women Talking

  • Sigourney Weaver - Avatar: The Way of Water

  • Felix Kammerer - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Daniel Brühl - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Albrecht Schuch - All Quiet on the Western Front

• Coattails from Lead Performer

  • Thuso Mbedu - The Woman King

  • Lashanna Lynch - The Woman King

Seeing as we just said Viola Davis could still be the victim of a snub, I don’t think her co-stars Mbedu and Lynch are likely surprises, unless the movie surprises in Best Picture and other categories. Of the Best Picture coattail riders, the most likely candidates are LaBelle, Hanks, Whishaw, Hoss or any of the All Quiet on the Western Front stars.

Like before, let’s take a look at which categories typically see a surprise:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsSince supporting surprises are usually more common, this means that our two potential surprises could be Tom Hanks, Nina Hoss, Ben Whishaw, Daniel Brühl or Albrecht Schuch. It’s usually best to bet on actors that can be paired with a lead lock, so I would predict Tom Hanks and Nina Hoss to surprise. However, nothing is set in stone.

Which actors do you think will earn Oscar nominations for acting and why? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[Carlos Fernández]

I predict Tom Hanks for A man called Otto as a surprise nominee.
Snub for Williams and women talking ladies.

[Gallavich]

The sphere tell me that Viola Davis will be snubbed and Labelle will be the out of nowhere nominee

[Peter]

I love the analysis. Agree if 1 of the 13 contenders with all three precursors is most likely to miss that it's Davis. Very easy to see de Armas or Robbie wind up in that slot.

That said the last two Best Actor slots seem wide open and Nighy isn't of a stature where he is a "must nominate". But in a weak field it doesn't seem like the alternatives (Cruise, Mescal, Labelle, Jackman, Calva... Sandler?) are strong enough to box him out. I'd pick Cruise at gunpoint but nothing would shock me here.

It's very interesting that the "out of nowhere snubs" tend to be in the lead categories while "out of nowhere nominees" tend to be in supporting. If we have to pick two surprises I'd lean towards Hoss and Whishaw if Women Talking can regain some momentum and stay in Best Pic and get at least Buckley a nom (I think it will). The Hanks performance in Elvis is just too ridiculous.

I'd be curious how many of the "shock" nominees were in international films, and how much overseas support they had. The two I recall are Cruz last year - who I think had won a bunch of international precursors - and Marina de Tavira from Roma which truly seemed out of nowhere. Seems like the AQOTWF guys would be in the latter category.

[Joe G.]

Angela gave a great speech at the Globes, so I think she's in. She's been the focus of Disney's campaign as well (she is in the picture for all of their FYC ads), so I suspect she has enough momentum to make it all the way. Only two supporting globe winners in the past 20 years haven't been nominated, and neither of them got a SAG or CC nomination.

I think Viola could be on the chopping block, but the issue is more that her category has less more folks fighting it out for fifth. This doesn't seem to be a year with a tight five. I think her stature could help her out (much like it has when Meryl has missed a few nominations in the past) and the fact that she's waged a strong campaign. However, she seems the likeliest.

I think Nighy is in. He's got SPC backing his campaign and he feels like a Richard Jenkins/Johnathon price sort of nominee. Well respected actor getting his due for a small, but moving, picture.

I do think there's a world where Daniel Brühl sneaks in ahead of someone like Barry Keoghan. However, Banshees has a lot of love. Dano could, easily, be switched out for Hirsch. Hirsch is showier and more impactful, even though Dano is just in more of the film. Hirsch gets at some of the key themes in a really impactful way.

[Mr Ripley79]

Best Actor the out of nowhere nominee i'd lean towards LaBelle,the snub I could see being Nighy but it's a very weak year so i'm inclined to think he gets in

Best Actress I tend to think though I love the performance that Danielle could be the snub,if I had to pick an out of nowhere it would be Naomi Ackie cos Oscar loves that stuff.

Supporting Actor Hirsch may replace Dano,someone no-one saw coming would be Whishaw,the SAG ensemble nod is telling or maybe James Hong.

Supporting Actress if I had a snub it would be Monae or Chau for Hoss or Foy,I think Jessie B is going to be nominated.

[Paranoid Android]

I love that Michael Shannon is in his own category. Didn’t both of his nods come completely out of the blue? I don’t remember precursor love for either before nominations morning. Both were well-deserved.

[jules]

If the PGA nominations are anything to go by, The Whale may be peaking at the right time and Chau is in.

I have been bullish on The Woman King and Davis all season, but it's bad that a hit released early in the year couldn't make the SAG ensemble nomination list or the PGA list. I think Davis may be out.

I have been hoping that Nina Hoss would get a coattail nod all season. As Peter notes, the "shock" nominees are often from international films, and while Tar isn't an international film, Hoss is a respected presence in German-language movies, so that could play in her favor. Tar is also finishing the season strong, with the DGA nod yesterday.

[Peggy Sue]

I think Viola is shakier than Michelle.

Have you guys seen the last minute campaign praising Andrea Riseborough?

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

Great analysis, Mr. James. Congrats!

SURPRISES:
Paul Mescal, Emma Thompson, Judd Hirsch and Nina Hoss.
That's for whom I'm rooting for!

Daniel Brühl, Albrecht Schuch, Stephanie Hsu and Hong Chau would be also great.

LONG-LONG SHOTS: Tobey Maguire, Jean Smart, Sadie Sink.

[eurocheese]

Loved this breakdown. Thanks for sharing.

[Juan carlos]

The grassroots campaign has me hoping Andrea Riseborough gets in for To Leslie.

[Michael Rosenberger]

Such a cool breakdown. I think Hoss could be the surprise.