Nathaniel's Final Predix (and Cruel Father Time)

by Nathaniel R

Hello faithful very patient readers! Time to put our cards down on the table or a protective cloth over our crystal ball and other such metaphors. FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS MUST NOW BE UTTERED...

Father Time (why it gotta be patriarchal?) is a trickster in 2023 and we're already out of days to futz around which came as such a surprise. While it is *always* better to post personal preferences (i.e. the film bitch awards) before the Oscar nominations -- in the traditional categories that is -- so as not to be seen as contrarian or reactionary, the clock aint cooperating! And with Oscar nominations coming Tuesday there's not even time to update every Oscar chart before they have to be removed and replaced with the actuals so we've just removed them for now. Everything is right here in this post until Tuesday.

This isn't all that's going on this weekend and across next week of course. There is also one last poll of the team predictions to post. And Sundance screenings have begun and we still have to share top ten lists. It's chaos at TFE HQ. It's such a pity always that some months of each year are wastelands and other months you couldn't possibly fit everything in even if the days were each 48-72 hours long.

OSCAR NOM PREDICTIONS

Important note: The followings ranking have nothing to do with "who will win"... it is entirely about order of confidence in the actual nomination. We have always mantained (though the modern social media and web discourse don't agree/won't cooperate) that those are two totally different things and "who will win?" would be a more exciting conversation if we could reserve it until we're in the reality of the official competitive set. 

BEST PICTURE

BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Top Gun Maverick
4. The Fabelmans
5. Avatar The Way of Water
6. Elvis
7. TÁR
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. The Whale
10. Women Talking
    
    Why? It's really only the last two spots that feel difficult to pin down. The Whale, while undeserving, has the distinct advantage of containing the frontrunning Best Actor performance and the Oscars have historically been very kind to Best Actor-focused picture. As for Women Talking. It could easily be left out but it has recency bias over Triangle of Sadness, important messaging over the popcorn silliness of Glass Onion, and is better reviewed than Babylon. All three of those films are possible as BP nominees, though.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Todd Field, TÁR
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
   
   Why? I wanted to go way out on a limb for spot #5 for bragging rights just in case something crazy happens. Other possibilities in approximate crystal ball descending order: James Cameron (Avatar The Way of Water), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Joseph Kosinki (Top Gun Maverick), or Baz Lurhmann (Elvis).
   
   Why Charlotte Wells? Listen I could just have easily have said SS Rajamouli (RRR), Park Chan Wook (Decision to Leave), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) or Jerzy Skolimowski (EO) for the 'shock' nomination but I'd like to think her constant flow of "debut" prizes and that DGA nomination for first timers means something within the director's branch. 

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
4. Ana de Armas, Blonde
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon
   
   Why? We didn't believe the de Armas buzz until the Globes but she's much better than Michelle Williams was at playing Marilyn Monroe and the Academy (and everyone really) nominated Williams for it! Oscar voters have always worshipped biopics, whether or not they're any good.
   
   Why not Viola? For what it's worth, I've never placed Davis in the top five all year for The Woman King. It was always just a hunch that she'd be left out. You cant be nominated every time unless you're Streep and The Woman King is arguably an action film. Only two women in history have landed in this category for that: Sigourney Weaver in Aliens and Sandra Bullock in Gravity. Plus a good chunk of the narrative arc in that particular film belongs to Viola's younger co-star Thuso Mbedu. This hunch became harder to stick with as the precursors lined up with ease for the Emmy, Tony, and Oscar winner. So perhaps my hunch is way off base? We'll see on Tuesday!
   
   Possible spoilers in order: Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) who I'm predicting falls to Margot but just barely given that some people consider her supporting and is likely to have boths in both categories. Plus maybe Viola Davis (The Woman King), and yes even chameleonic Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) given the surge in peer support.

BEST ACTOR

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
2. Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
   
   why? Mescal is a reach of course since he's younger than Oscar voters are comfortable with in the category and it's also a lower profile indie than they usually go for in this marquee category. But Mescal has already won a deserved reputation as a revelatory young actor and given the film's popularity in "breakthrough filmmaker" categories, we're hoping enough voters will have seen it and give him the Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson kind of "welcome!" nomimation. It's a risky prediction but so is any prediction for this fifth slot in this category when only four men are clearly in play. 
   
   possible spoilers: If it's not Paul Mescal than, in this order, we could see Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Gabriel Labelle (The Fabelmans), or Tom Cruise (Top Gun Maverick) as the spoilers. We were going to list Felix Kamerrer (All Quiet on the Western Front) but given that he was the film's ONLY snub at BAFTA people are treating it like an auteur film rather than an actor's film. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther Wakanda Forever
4. Hong Chau, The Whale
5. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
   
   why?  This still feels like the single most volatile category. Only Condon feels truly safe (though not for the win) in terms of nominations. Curtis has the 'silly comedic work is not what actors tend to take that seriously' and the 'what about her co-star?' problems and Bassett has the 'superhero films are not what actors tend to take that seriously' kind of problem -- in short, neither of them would be landing these nominations if they weren't already legendary actors. Which is not the same thing as saying they're undeserving, please understand. 
   
   Hong Chau, as reliably perfect as she is every time she's onscreen in anything, is mostly predicted due to coattails from working with the Best Actor frontrunner, and Dolly de Leon  might just be 'hope-dicting' at this point. But BAFTA came through... so we think maybe. 
   
   possible spoilers? So many! In descending order of likelihood to crash this party: Janelle Monae (Glass Onion), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans -- if enough voters put her here instead), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once), and two star lead actresses who have been shamelessly pushed as supporting and then approved by critics groups despite that: Carey Mulligan (She Said) and Keke Palmer (Nope). Both of those performances, especially Palmer's, are wonderful but category Fraud is always irritating and it's especially painful in years where the field of options to voters is so very rich. Not every one can be honored so every vote for a first or second billed movie star in a leading role in this category, literally takes away a vote for an undersung supporting actress to win honors for her hard work crafting a full character without the benefit of the entire movie and lots of screen time supporting her. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan, Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
   
   why/spoilers Listen. Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) is in a great position given the lockstep precursor approval. But we're still mystified how that came to be for a performance and film that didn't make waves when it was released and appears to have no sizeable fan base. Perhaps this is a blindspot on my part? Have any of you met any fans of this film or performance?
   
   Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) is  obviously a longshot despite the Gotham and Spirit attention but he's so worthy that we hope he is the surprise in the fifth spot.  Brad Pitt (Babylon) might have an outside shot but we'd be surprised given the reception of the film and that he's already been amply rewarded and quite recently too. Which left us with... will it really be Judd Hirsch? And will we really have only 3 films nominated in this category? It would be an unusual result but we're going for it. No guts no glory. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Close (Belgium)
3. Argentina 1985 (Argentina)
4. EO (Poland)
5. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
   
   potential spoilers This race is so ultra competitive that we think ONLY All Quiet on the Western Front is locked up and any combo of four from the the other fourteen finalists is possible. Anything could become the weird snub... yes, even the much lauded Decision to Leave (Oscar voters have historically been resistant to Asian cinema and that's a grudge we have that will take a few years of Oscar being generous for us to shake). What's more, can anything even be considered a snub when the finalist list is so strong this year? The most poorly reviewed film of the 15 is surely Bardo (Mexico) but that has the advantage of coming from a director Oscar voters are undeniably obsessed with; Inarittu has won four Oscars and a special achievement award... all in the past eight years! 
   
   Among the other finalists Joyland (Pakistan), The Quiet Girl (Ireland) and Return to Seoul (Cambodia) have very devout cheerleaders and are easy to picture as "upset" nominees. And please see them the first chance you get as they're all great. Corsage (Austria), Saint Omer (France) and Holy Spider (Denmark) also have fanbases and reasons to highly recommend them.  The three lowest profile titles Blue Caftan (Morocco), Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden), and Last Film Show (India) would be more of a surprise as nominees but anything is possible in this category. In short: hoorah for a strong finalist list. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
3. Turning Red
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. Little Nicholas
   
   why? predicting Little Nicholas on account of "no guts no glory" and because otherwise this list will be soooo mainstream. P.S. I don't actually think Marcel the Shell is safe (though it is likely) since animators sometimes get picky about things with "limited" animation...see that infamous snub of Lego Movie
   
   possible spoilers: 27 films are eligible but the most likely spoilers are The Sea Beast (from a previous nominee), The Bad Guys (because it was a big hit), Strange World (for recency bias and Disney dominance), Lightyear or Minions The Rise of Gru (if they're feeling super lazy about voting), My Father's Dragon (if they're still loyal to Cartoon Saloon) Inu-Oh (if they watched it after the Globe nomination) or Mad God (if they're feeling risky/frisky).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. All that Breathes
2. Fire of Love
3. Navalny
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
5. Descendant
   
   why? As much as we love Moonage Daydream, voters are weird about archival footage docs AND box office hits in this category.
   
   possible spoilers the 10 other finalists in order of whether Oscar might go for them. Let's say in this order: Moonage Daydream, The Territory, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home, Retrograde, House Made of Splinters, The Janes, Children of the Mist, Hidden Letters , and Hallelujah Leonard Cohen a Journey a Song. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. Triangle of Sadness
5. Aftersun
   
   why? Predicting a snub for The Fabelmans... though we're not happy about it. In reality there are six well received high profile options for them in this category so one of them is waking up to very bad news on Tuesday morning. Aftersun feels like it's still on the rise while Triangle of Sadness and The Fabelmans feel like they're a bit more faded and divisive. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Glass Onion
2. Women Talking
3. Living
4. The Whale
5. Top Gun Maverick
   
   why? We really did not want to predict Top Gun Maverick here but that USC Scripter nod might have been telling. Quite a few actually feel plausible but mostly (in descending order) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, She Said, and All Quiet on the Western Front. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Top Gun Maverick
2. Avatar The Way of Water
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Empire of Light
   
   why/spoilers Going out on a limb here and predicting that the ACS goes 3/5 rather than their usual 4/5 with Elvis and Bardo falling to Avatar and the surging German film All Quiet on the Western Front. That said we're still rooting for Nope to magically appear in the final lineup because it's so much better than some of its competitors.
   
   Pity that none of the strong foreign options other than All Quiet / Bardo  really caught on in this category because the American films haven't been quite as strong in this field. EO, for example, would be a dream nominee.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Elvis
2. Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
3. Black Panther Wakanda Forever
4. Babylon
5. Living
   
   why While Living wasn't CDG nominated, Oscar's costume branch likes the three time Oscar winner Sandy Powell more than the guild does. Just a hunch given all those wonderful 1950s suits and hats.  
   
   possible spoilers: If Babylon's anachronisms piss off enough of the costume branch members we could see it replaced here. Possible alternates (in descending order): The Fabelmans, All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and even Glass Onion (though Oscar tends to be allergic to contemporary fashion)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Avatar The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. Elvis
4. Glass Onion
5. The Fabelmans
   
   spoilers? Other films that might snag nominations (in descending order of likelihood) include Black Panther Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman , and Everything Everywhere All At Once
   
   three loveable longshots: BAFTA nominee Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio would be an amazing nomination but Oscar has never sprung for an animated film in this category. White Noise would be a fun nomination but the film hasn't gotten much attention. Finally, we can't understand how Nope hasn't caught on in this category in particular as it runs circles around so many other films in this department and we'd be tempted to give it the win. 

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Top Gun Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Elvis
4. Avatar the Way of Water
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
   
   why? It's dangerously free of possible Best Picture winners, this list, but that's what I landed on without the guild to help (ACE Eddie nominations come after the Oscar nods this year for some reason).
   
   potential spoilers: Banshees of Inisherin (BAFTA nominated in this category) and The Fabelmans feel like the most likely disruptors given their Best Picture heat. The Fabelmans even contains that nifty sequence that's all about film editing! 
   
   loveable longshot: how cool would a nomination for Aftersun be in this category? 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar the Way of Water
2. Top Gun Maverick
3. The Batman
4. Nope
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
   
   why? Kind of a risk to exclude Black Panther BUT the original wasn't nominated in this category (whereas the original Doctor Strange was) and it's underwater stuff looks so shabby next to Avatar... All that plus the heat Marvel has taken about their overall visual effects sloppiness across all franchises in the past few years. The other 5 finalists just don't seem quite as likely though we'd rank them in this order of predicted Oscar preference as spoilers (though that's definitely not our preference!!!) Black Panther Wakanda Forever  (still very possible) Jurassic World Dominion  (but they skipped the last installment in this category) All Quiet on the Western Front, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, and Thirteen Lives.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
   
   why? / spoilers I've been predicting most of these for a long time but have subbed in the surging All quiet on the Western Front at the last moment in place of Amsterdam. Still as I've mentioned all year long just because twitter hates Amsterdam doesn't mean the Academy will! The other five finalists in descending order of Oscar preference guessing: Amsterdam, Blonde, Crimes of the Future (so awesome that it made the finals but we dare not assume a nomination is likely), Babylon, and Emancipation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
2. The Fabelmans
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
   
   why? Two sure things from beloved composers Desplat & Williams. The rest is guesswork based on enthusiasm for those scores and one undersung composer (Carter Burwell) with a major Best Picture player in Banshees of Inisherin
   
   potential spoilers: The other finalists in order of their likelihood to interfere with this prediction? Avatar the Way of Water, All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Nope, Devotion, Don't Worry Darling, The Woman King, She Said, and Glass Onion

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Naatu Naatu" -RRR
2. "Ciao Papa" -Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
3. "Hold My Hand" -Top Gun Maverick
4. "New Body Rhumba" -White Noise
5. "Lift Me Up" -Black Panther Wakanda Forever
   
   why? Famous stars or memorable songs/scenes. This category is one of Oscar's weakest year by year with lots of strange choices. I readily admit that I'm not good at predicting what they'll go for... especially since my own tastes are diametrically opposed, nearly always preferring songs that contribute to the narrative over Oscar's preference of end credit scroll songs. 
   
   potential spoilers? The other finalists in descending order of predicted likelihood: "Good Afternoon", Spirited (if they're in a joke song mood... which they sometimes are!), "This is a Life" Everything Everywhere All At Once (if it's a sweeper), "Applause" Tell It LIke A Woman (if that honorary Oscar for Diane Warren doesn't allow them to take a break for a year), "Carolina" When the Crawdads Sing (if they're finally done ignoring Taylor Swift), "Til You're Home" A Man Called Otto (if they want to honor Mrs Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson!) and  "Stand Up" Till (if they watched it), or the titular songs from  Voice of Dust and Ash, and Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me.

SOUND

1. Top Gun Maverick
2. Avatar the Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once
   
   why / potential spoilers: The other finalists in order of probability at busting into this lineup... The Batman, Babylon, Guilldermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, and Moonage Daydream which would be very cool but the fact is that they've only ever nominated one documentary for this prize and that was over 50 years ago (Woodstock). 

We'll annnounced the shorts predictions soon (finishing up the screenings we've been able to find)

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Who knows but we're out of time so this is the final nomination-tally prediction as weird as it reads. Apparently we're predicting a year where no film breaks the double digit mark... which is against Oscar trending since they tend to be "all in" and not think about category particulars these days. We think Banshees and Top Gun Maverick and even Avatar are probably predicted at their maximum capacities but EEAAO, AQOTWF, The Fabelman, Elvis, and Babylon all feel like they have a wide range of possibility in terms of final nomination count, so we shall see.

8 nominations
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

7 nominations
ELVIS
TOP GUN MAVERICK

6 nominations
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT -the overperformer ???
AVATAR THE WAY OF WATER
THE FABELMANS -- weirdly it's become a wild card. could see this with anywhere from 4 to 10 nominations

5 nominations
THE WHALE

4 nominations
BABYLON  - predicted as most nominations without a Best Picture citation
TAR

3 nominations
AFTERSUN - but obviously could be entirely shut out, too.
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER WAKANDA FOREVER 
GUILLERMO DEL TORO'S PINOCCHIO
WOMEN TALKING - predicted least citations for a Best Picture nominee this year... but theoretically could end up with just 1 nom (adapted screenplay)

2 nominations
GLASS ONION - the underperformer ???
LIVING
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

1 nomination
BLONDE
DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS
EMPIRE OF LIGHT
MRS HARRIS GOES TO PARIS
NOPE
RRR
TILL
WHITE NOISE

Comments

[Mr Ripley79]

I liked Redmayne and the film,I found it very interesting and his performance though full of tics is quite mesmerising,he's in my Top 3.

Final predictions acting only

Actor Cruise,Mescal,Fraser,Farrell,Butler
Actress Yeoh,De Armas,Blanchett,Deadwyler,Davis
S Actress Curtis,Chau,Condon,Bassett,Buckley
S Actor Quan,Dano,Gleeson,Keoghan,Hong

[Max Brandt]

Love your predictions, especially Supporting Actress even if I don’t think Bassett is deserving. Also crossing my fingers for Mescal.

I don’t have a problem with Redmayne. I think it was a solid performance and the movie itself wasn’t bad.

My predictions (in order of who I hope would win)
Actor: Farrell, Butler, Fraser, Nighy, Cruise
Actress: Blanchett, Deadwyler, Yeoh, Davis, de Armas
Supporting Actor: Quan, Keoghan, Schuch, Gleeson, Redmayne
Supporting Actress: de Leon, Chau, Condon, Curtis, Bassett
Director: Field, McDonagh, Berger, the Daniels, Spielberg

Really hoping for lesser known or unknown actors to be recognized. It’s about damn time for the Academy to realize the Oscars isn’t just about famous people!

[whunk (he/him)]

Just saw Bad Axe recently and I think it has a really good shot at making it.

[Ryan T.]

Not bad. Though I don't really see a world where Fabelman gets TWO Supporting Actor noms and then NOT get a Screenplay nod. I know different categories and whatnot, but that would be so strange.

I kinda am hoping for a chaotic "Michelle Williams ends up in Supporting Actress" result, but I'm mostly focused on the "please god I know it probably won't happen but Stephanie Hsu is right there please."

[Score and Cinematography]

I second your “would be a dream” nominations for Aftersun editing, EO cinematography and Pinocchio production design (if Avatar is a contender - why not this). Haven’t seen Nope to comment.

Hope your Aftersun predictions come true (Mescal!) and international film including EO and Close and Women Talking making best pic. Went from seemingly like a front runner to now almost nothing at all. Would be sad to see it dropped. Those are my wishes this year. Oh and I loved The Fabelmans so don’t want it to underperform.

[Marsha Mason]

All the likely nods for the extremely meh Top Gun make me sad, especially as I'm betting Cruise gets in for actor in a paycheck role he could do in his sleep. (Rewatching Eyes Wide Shut recently I was struck by how uniquely Cruise handles his role; it's hard to imagine anyone else doing that role the way he does.) I can't see them going for Mescal -- rather young and in a vibes picture -- over Cruise -- decades-long survivor in a loud picture!

[jules]

I think Aftersun would have done better at the BAFTAs if it were going to get three major Oscar nominations.

[Edwin]

I thought my prediction of James Hong showing up in Supporting Actor was my unique “no guts, no glory” pick this year, but now I’m seeing other people making the same prediction, so maybe he actually does have some last-minute momentum?

So I’ll go with another “no guts, no glory” prediction on top of that. Last year I correctly predicted Villeneuve would be left out of the Best Director lineup, and this year I’m gonna go ahead and say McDonagh is left out just like he was in 2017 for Three Billboards. I personally think his direction is absolutely crucial to the success of Banshees, but I just have this hunch that many in the director’s branch might still view it as more of a feat of writing and acting and will therefore opt for someone like Berger or Rajamouli instead (I actually have them both getting in, replacing McDonagh and Kosinski from the DGA lineup).

[Philip H.]

My no guts, no glory pick...

Park Chan-wook in Director

I correctly predicted Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, so who knows.

...

I did my predictions the other day, and I kept switching either Michelle Williams or Viola missing in Actress. I do think the 5th slot is between them.

I also thought Ana de Armas was a Golden Globe thing until she showed up everywhere. It's a hideous film, but she did her job, and she's at the right career point for recognition. Plus it's a Marilyn Monroe biopic... Academy catnip.

I also predicted Paul Mescal, but I could also see a wildcard like Gabriel Labelle. Something is telling me it'll go to a younger actor this year, but who knows. I don't think Tom Cruise has enough steam.

The Angela Bassett nom (win?) is really bumming me out. Obviously she's great, but this is her moment in the Oscar sun? Sigh. Especially in such a competitive category. Næuhhhr.

I'm really hoping for Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu, Hong Chau, and Dolly de Leon. The last spot can be Bassett's or someone else's, but I'm rooting for those four.

The James Hong prediction is fun, but he doesn't have much of anything to do in EEAAO.

Eddie Redmayne is such a wild card -- it could truly go either way. In fact, the fifth slot in supporting actor is pretty much a wild card. Who knows.

I only really care about the acting categories if I'm being honest, so I don't have much else to add lol.

[Elazul]

- BP is spot-on although I think Women Talking kinda disappointed in the season so Black Panther 2 is my 10th spot prediction, kind of a reverse coattail based on the Bassett march.

- Margot Robbie is not going to take Viola's place, I do think Viola reached the "we nominate you every time" status while Margot has quickly scored two flops. She is likely the GG comedy frontrunner for 2023 though, that should be her consolation.

- When was the last time supporting actor had 2 double nominees? Judd Hirsch was only name-checked by the CCA. Although he is a previous nominee, Redmayne will prevail because he is established unlike the rest and I do think it was a great performance although one of the biggest category frauds ever (or at least since 2015). I think Dano himself is vulnerable as well but this is likely his only chance for a nomination, backed by The Batman support.

- Strange World is not a possible spoiler, it's dead and buried, barely name checked at the Annie Awards. Disney is lucky that Turning Red was well-received because their other two animated efforts this year likely hurt their brand.

- I think The Fabelmans can even win original screenplay if they want honor someone else in director, can't see both Triangle of Sadness and Aftersun making it.

- She Said is likely to be honored with the adapted screenplay nomination ("because we want to feel important!") but your top 5 is still the most likely.

- Can't see Sandy Powell making it in after being ignored everywhere (except Satellite Awards), The Irishman was a coattail nominee for her. Lisy Christl is very likely to be in the top 5 with both CDG and BAFTA. The Woman King and Amsterdam are the other possible spoilers. Black Panther 2 might be a surprise snub here.

- Blonde will be nominated in makeup so it won't be another addition to the long list of "only lead actress nominated films", ironically The Woman King has a bigger chance for that.

Kind of shocking how Babylon crashed and burned as it was obviously BP bait, who would have imagined both Russell and Chazelle would end up like this with Margot Robbie not saving them!

And how did the HFPA miss Deadwyler? Were they so sure about Olivia Colman, whose honeymoon period seems to be over already...

[cde xdw]

I don't know about the buzz on Redmayne's perf in the US, but here in the UK he had great reviews in the papers and I'm fairly certain the film was watched a lot. In today's Guardian/Observer critics picks for the Oscars column, he's in the SA lineups for 2 out of the 4 critics.

[Mr Ripley79]

Elazul was you supporting actor comment meant as sarcasm.

The Oscars are notorious for putting 2 men in Supporting just last year Plemons,McPhee 2020 Stanfield and Kaluuya and 2017 Harrelson & Rockwell,plus many others.

Very often i'd say.

[Elazul]

Mr Ripley79: I did write 2 double nominees, I meant when there are 4 actors from 2 movies nominated.

[Antônio]

I can see Bardo showing more than you predicted. Not confident at all about its chances on Internartional Feature or Screenplay, but a surefire in Cinematography (Khondji is a legend and nominated only once) & Production Design (fantastic work and Caballero is a beloved former winner). Also it scored with both of these guilds, so I can’t believe it will fail on both at the Oscars.

[Finbar McBride]

This article is very strong though I would question two exclusions.

I think Viola Davis is going to be nominated. The argument that only two actresses have been nominated for action adventure films ignores Ava Gardner in Mogambo, Kate Winslet in Titanic, and Naomi Watts in The Impossible to name a few.

I think Tom Cruise is going to be nominated. The industry vividly remember his vocal refusal to allow Top Gun: Maverick to be rapidly sent to streaming and insisting audiences return to movie houses. His stand turned the tide. Voters will want to recognize the previous nominee for a fourth time as a thank you.

[honduran]

Stop trying to make Margot Robbie happen is not gonna happen haha. Hopefully we get some shocks like Olivia Colman or some other long shot.

Looking forward to see something crazy happening on best supporting actress as well and for me it seems we are underestimating All quiet on the western front, I believe it will be the one with most nominations on Tuesday morning.

This season has been quite volatile on the past few weeks and so far so good, like it. :)

[rehui dh]

I think it will be Park Chan Wook and not Wells in that directing lineup.

I think Mescal is in. Hollywood has very clearly taken note of him and I don't think they managed to get the film out, or at least, I think smartly, didn't bother with having to spend for SAG. so it doesn't matter.

I just don't see Robbie making it in.

As for Redmayne, Hilton Als wrote a very glowing about the Good Nurse on his Instagram and loved the performances of the two leads. I don't recall him having done that for any other film this season.

[Elazul]

Imagine Brad Pitt getting nominated but not Margot Robbie.

[Mike in Canada]

Very rooting for Michelle and Margot this week. Paul Mescal too.
Eddie Redmayne is either a Robert-Duvall-The-Judge or a Jared-Leto-Little-things. We'll find out Tuesday.

[jules]

So many actresses could have done so much more with Jamie Lee Curtis's part in EEAAO. I would have loved to see Kristin Wiig or Lisa Kudrow in that part. Curtis would never be a sole nominee from her film for that performance (as Angela Bassett is). It's tough for me to just watch her skate from nomination to nomination - over people like Nina Hoss, Samantha Morton, and potentially Janelle Monae and Hong Chau - because people like the film.

[Tyler]

I definitely think de Armas will benefit from passion voting the way Kristen Stewart did last year - those who love their performances REALLY love them.

[Philip H.]

jules - Heavily disagree! The way Michelle Yeoh talked about JLC pushing her stomach out and her general working style does not make me feel like "oh, other actresses would have done a lot more w this role!" She slayed. Of course, if it wasn't an overdue iconic actress in the role, she would not be in awards convo for this, even if it was still the BP frontrunner and all that, but that's the way the Oscar cookie crumbles.

I would LOVE to see Kristen Wiig or Lisa Kudrow in that role tho... Hmm. They would fit well into the Daniels' world.

It's frustrating how unappreciated comedy can be. Lisa Kudrow was in the running in the late 90s for The Opposite of Sex, and Kristen Wiig obviously got nominated for writing Bridesmaids and was likely close to the Actress category bc that was a humungous hit... Anywho, I would love to see them get their [acting] Oscar moment, I love them both.

This reminds me of years ago, someone on this site said Drew Barrymore would've been the perfect age-appropriate actress for Jennifer Lawrence's role in American Hustle and I couldn't get it out of my head! Oh, how I wish that had been the case.

[Kurt O]

Hiiiii Nathaniel. I am indeed one of the patient readers who’s been refreshing this site all week for the predictions!!!

While I loved “Aftersun” and everything about it, I am rather shocked by the number of folks predicting Mescal in Best Actor. Nevermind his “it boy” buzz or the overall love for the film — I genuinely cannot think of a recent (or non recent) nominee in this category whose work was THIS understated. Anyone care to provide a precedent that comes even close?

[DK]

I hope you're wrong about Women Talking, it's crazy that one of the year's best acting showcases would end up with zero nominations. Sigh.

[Mike in Canada]

Kurt: Steven Yeun comes to mind. :)

Jules: I would now love to see all of our great comic actresses take on the JLC role in EEAAO... but it doesn't make me love Jamie Lee's take any less.

[Troy H.]

Philip H., I said on here years ago that Cameron Diaz would have been perfect for the Jennifer Lawrence role in American Hustle. Hell, it could have been her elusive first Oscar nomination.

[Philip H.]

Troy - Also a good suggestion... It's hard to believe that Cameron was Supporting Actress bridesmaid TWICE on the morning of Oscar nominations. But, anything is possible. She's already come out of that early retirement / hiatus, so the right role could still be in the cards.

[Ryan Steinke]

Wow, you're predicting Charlotte Wells - that would be so incredible.

I'm still a tad nervous for TÁR in Best Picture (although the DGA/PGA nod combo has helped me relax a little). I'm rooting hardest for it along with Aftersun (Directing/Actor/Screenplay/Editing JUST somewhere please), EO, Curtis and Delon on Oscar nomination morning.

[Paul Reese]

As much as I would love to entertain a Park or Wells nomination in Director, I think Berger is poised to be the international nomination this year if one is to even happen. Can’t distrust that BAFTA support.

That being said, Top Gun: Maverick is huge enough to get in (but a ‘no name’ would be against it), and it’s likely voters may use this as their one time to nominate Luhrmann.

I’m predicting Spielberg, the Daniels, McDonagh, Field, and Berger, though. Wouldn’t be entirely shocked if McDonagh missed for one of the others mentioned, but I’m just feeling we’re looking at a kind of obvious lineup this year, and the Daniels and Field already fit in as unconventional genre/arthouse picks in themselves.

Outside that, I’m kind of staying rather boring with my picks, and only have one real NGNG prediction I’ve been sticking with for months.

Actor: Butler, Farrell, Fraser, Nighy, Sandler (when it doubt, go with the one who got into SAG, imo)

I would love to see Mescal get in, but if he really were a Ryan Gosling/Half Nelson contender, he probably would’ve gotten that SAG nod like he did back in ’06. I would love to be wrong.

Actress: Blanchett, Davis, de Armas, Williams, Yeoh

Michelle missed SAG for Blue Valentine back in 2010, and yet still got that film’s sole nomination. This is a pretty standard Oscar nomination that people get irritated by, so as much as it even irks me, I think she’s got it in the bag, and I’m not really buying the category switch predictions. de Armas has the passion, but her film is divisive and dark, so she’s definitely vulnerable for Deadwyler to get in. Something tells me Deadwyler can miss, even with a biopic role, because Davis has already solidified her name as an Oscar repeater, and seems to be the marketed face of her movie.

Supporting Actor: Dano, Gleeson, Keoghan, Quan, Redmayne

I don’t think Redmayne is as vulnerable as most. He got into all the major precursors, something Leto and Affleck - who he’s being compared to - didn’t. Add onto that his former nominations/win, and the type of role, and it’s like a surety nomination, imo. I think Dano can easily be replaced by Hirsch in the same film, though. Otherwise, I think the SAG lineup will be repeated here.

Supporting Actress: Bassett, Chau, Condon, Curtis, Hoss

And my NGNG prediction is a coattail nomination for Hoss. As the article on here about the surprise nominees said, it’s usually in a Picture contender or leading actor frontrunner, and Blanchett is the latter, and the film is strong enough to be a Director nomination, on top of that. It is the most sensible surprise possibility this year, in my opinion, and the right kind of ‘subtle’ performance that made people doubt it in the first place, but make us fight over whether or not it was deserved after it happens. Predicting Chau based on her SAG nomination, and the fact she had The Menu to make people think of her, as well.

[Nate]

LETS GOO THE FABELMANS and DECISION TO LEAVE!

[Peggy Sue]

Viola out, Michelle in.