Oscars: The Five Club
Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 6:00PM by Eric Blume
It’s always fun when “the conversation” starts to brew for Oscar nominations every year, seeing which actors are gaining traction for a potential nomination. What’s interesting this year is that there are an unusually high number of actors (six, in fact!) who currently have four acting nominations under their belt who all stand good-to-great chances of joining The Five Club with nods this year. Five Oscar nominations is a big deal. Only 22 actors currently have five, and the names are among some of our best from older Hollywood (Olivia de Havilland, James Stewart), to the modern age (Albert Finney, Anne Bancroft, Susan Sarandon) to contemporary (Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, Michelle Williams). It’s very nice company to be in.
Let’s take a look at the actors who stand a very real shot of being a part of The Five Club this year…
Freshly streaming on Netflix, we have not one but two actors who could join simultaneously with NYAD. Lead actress Annette Bening gives a sharp, prickly turn as swimmer Diana Nyad, and supporting her is none other than Jodie Foster, relaxed, breezy, fiery, and better than she’s been onscreen in possibly decades. Few actors are more exciting than these two when they’re firing on all cylinders as they are here, and four career nominations feels low for the brilliantly talented actresses. They also work together beautifully, and there's joy in their acting. NYAD the film is far from a masterpiece, so they’ll need to get their nominations on their performances alone, but one or both could easily figure in this year’s race. I think Jodie is one of the greatest actors to ever stand in front of a camera, so I’m really rooting for her this year.
Bradley Cooper seems like a very safe bet even in the crowded Best Actor race for Maestro. Yes, he has additional nominations, but currently he has four for his acting within this last decade. He is beloved by the Academy, he’s in some form of a biopic, and his talent is unquestionable. At the moment, I think Cooper is going to go all the way, but we have lots of time and turns in the race ahead.
Penélope Cruz emerged from Ferrari with best-in-show reviews, and it’s one of those performances that will further stand out as the strong female element in a “man movie”. Cruz is another actor who is unbeatable when she’s inspired and responding electrically with a director. She’s gotten in for two of her incredible foreign-language performances with Almodóvar, so the Academy clearly loves her and she’s on fire here.
Willem Dafoe has had such a remarkable career, his first of four nominations being way back in 1986 for Platoon, and he’s in the conversation again for Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. He came close to winning a few years back for The Florida Project, and it would be great to see him holding an Oscar one day. Dafoe takes huge risks and has accomplished technique, and he’s both a star and a journeyman actor. Nomination five for him feels good.
Joaquin Phoenix seems least likely for a nomination for Napoleon, but it’s still mostly unseen and who knows. Phoenix is a scrappy, fascinating actor who always seems able to surprise, but the trailer looks wobbly at best, so time will tell.
I’m not including Viola Davis here for Air, because that performance is very by-the-books and nothing very special, and while she was in the conversation early on, luckily we’ve moved on to bigger and better things in the Supporting Actress category. Davis is obviously a major actor, but we can demand more from her than what she gives us here.
A few interesting additions. If nominated for May December, the great Julianne Moore would move from The Five Club to The Six Club. If nominated for Killers of the Flower Moon, Leonardo DiCaprio would move from six noms to seven noms, and Robert De Niro from seven noms to eight noms.
On the other end, actors currently with three nominations who are in the conversation to possibly move to The Four Club include Mark Ruffalo and Emma Stone for Poor Things, Matt Damon for Oppenheimer, and Natalie Portman for May December.
Who are you most hoping will join The Five Club early next year?
Reader Comments (7)
A nomination for Bening in Nyad only happens by the power of her name. Jodie is actually the only good thing about this movie, in my opinion, and I’m rooting for her 5th nom this year.
On the unlikely list to join the five club, TFE has two four time nominees on the tier 3 roster of possibilities for Best Actress - Helen Mirren for Golda and Saoirse Ronan for Foe.
It's heating up Oscar wise despite the strike,come on let's be having you Hollywood
I'm totally with you on Foster,she is at her best since Contact,Bening not so much,she underwhelmed me plus she spends lots of time in the water.
Cooper seems like the easy choice but i'm thinking Jeffrey Wright is the real dark horse to win.
Cruz seems likely as the only women in a male dominated film,if she could get in for Nine she has a big chance here.
Dafoe will be overshadowed by Ruffalo but may get a coatail nom,I don't think he's winning for it.
Phoenix I find it odd how little passion is out there for Napoleon,maybe it's Ridley Scott letting us down so often,Kirby feels like the one to watch Oscar wise..
Moore and Portman seems like Globe nominees but Oscar maybe a bit more of a struggle.
Davis seems like a true SAG pick.
De Niro Stone and Ruffalo seems like definites DiCaprio may sit this year out,they may feel he's been rewarded enough which bodes well for Wright,Giamatti and Domingo.
I think Penelope has an uphill battle to a nomination. Her film, which was pricey, doesn't look like it will set the box office on fire and doesn't have a ton of buzz outside of her. That could change, but lone nominees are rarer, and when they do happen, it's for actors who are in much smaller films. Still, it would be exciting to see her get a fifth nomination.
It's so odd that Jodie Foster isn't a 5 time nominee yet.
I love Viola Davis, but I don't really see a path for her. I think if her film had been a bigger box office hit she'd stand a chance (along with Screenplay), but the film, while a sensational adult drama, wasn't beloved.Viola is also really in the background. She's great in her big showcase moments, but it doesn't feel like she's given enough to do.
I've had my issues with Viola Davis over the years - as the most famous Black actress, I think she, while exceptionally talented, is sometimes miscast in roles to bring in eyeballs (the Meryl Streep problem, if you will) - but I thought she was the best thing about Air and wouldn't mind a nomination for her at all. (Actually, I would love to see a whole movie centered around her character).
Likewise, Jodie is easily the best part of NYAD and would be very deserving.
Sight unseen, I'm rooting for Julianne Moore in May December.
5 is particularly special because it gets actors into the official Academy Awards database of statistics, where so many legendary names (Bancroft, Cooper, Dunne, Hayward, Hepburn, March, Peck, Shearer, Stewart, Taylor) received all 5 for lead acting.
I'm hoping that Bening and even Mirren can still get overdue 5th nominations, after so many near misses since their 4th.
Foster really seemed like a sure bet to get to 5 when she got to 4 over half her lifetime ago, and, after getting late momentum for The Mauritanian, it looks like she'll finally get there with rising buzz for Nyad in what is right now a very fluid category.
Lawrence and Ronan, who both got to 4 even younger, seem likely to get to 5 sooner, even if likely not for this year's work.
Cooper seems very likely to get his 5th acting nomination for Maestro and Dafoe should never be counted out with his recent career resurgence, but both were left off with major attention in open categories for Licorice Pizza and The Lighthouse, respectively.
Bale and Bardem are ones to keep an eye on for future years as well, along with Pitt, who almost made it for Babylon last year.
And Cruz, Davis, and Phoenix all feel like "5th slot" contenders, any of whom could pop in if there is not much consensus around a set top 5 by mid-January.
As undeserving as it would be, I do think Viola Davis stands a strong shot of a nomination. It would probably be the only nom for Air which is a shame because it’s better than Argo. But she’s got so much respect and cred, plus any lingering outrage over being nominated everywhere for The Woman King last year only to miss at the Oscars might help too.
If the buzz is real on Jodie Foster then I’m really rooting for her return to the Oscars. I was excited for her success with The Mauritanian (even though she was the lead), and she was better than some of the eventual nominees for Supporting Actress in 2020.
Don’t really care about Annette Bening making it or not. I’ve never watched her in something and was like “Wow. That was impressive”.
I’m so curious about Joaquin Phoenix in Napoleon. Everything about that whole project is such an unknown.