Oscar Volley: Best Supporting Actor
Saturday, January 20, 2024 at 8:00PM It's the final pre-nomination Oscar volley. Here's Eric and Chris to discuss Best Supporting Actor
A win for Ryan Gosling in "Barbie" would age so well. But Oscar rarely goes comedic.
CHRIS: Hey Eric! It's Barbenheimer 2.0 in the Best Supporting Actor race. In my mind, the two most secured nominees in the bunch are from the pair of box office summer behemoths - Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling in Barbie. It'll be interesting race to see if Gosling can overtake Downey Jr. to win for a comedic performance, but that's a post-nomination conversation. It's not just that both of these men starred in the hottest movies of the year, they gave indelible performances that are cemented in the conversation this year (well, I would say Gosling did, but I'll hold space for the Downey lovers).
May December was gaining momentum and critical acclaim at just the right time to be a major awards player (at least around the time the Globe nods were announced), which made me ecstatic...
It's one of my favorites of the year. Even though it probably won't make the Best Picture lineup, I could see Charles Melton representing the film at the Oscars anyway for his breakout performance. I feel like one of the two Poor Things men will likely miss at the Oscars... Dafoe? What do you think, Eric?
Robert Downey Jr is the frontrunner for "Oppenheimer"
ERIC: You're much nicer than I am. I feel no need to hold space for the Downey lovers! This category, usually the most boring of the acting awards, has so many thrilling potential nominees, it would be just like Oscar to award Downey, the least exciting of the candidates. Downey acquits himself admirably, sure. It's the first time he's done any actual acting after over a decade of laziness, and you can see his excitement at keying into being an actual actor again. He tears through his scenes and it's fun to see him on fire. But he doesn't really do anything with that role beyond what any talented actor would. He hits his moments with flair, but he's pretty slimy from the outset, so surely we're not meant to believe that there's a big arc to this character? I personally think a nomination for him for this role is ridiculous considering his phenomenal competition, but yes, he's surely in for a nod after all of his wins to date.
If Gosling won the Oscar, it would look amazing ten years from now, twenty years from now, and fifty years from now. It's a sublimely sophisticated comic performance, and contrary to the Downey situation, something almost no other actor would have executed with such intelligence and grace. Gosling finds endless notes of petulance, insight, and stupidity, and gives Ken a real journey. His face is funny, his body is funny, his voice is funny, and he makes Ken a complete conception, always fully in character with no tongue in cheek. He gives Barbie dimension and complexity while always staying blissfully absurd. That's acting.
CHRIS: I just rewatched Barbie last night (time #3) and Gosling's performance definitely deserves a reward. It's as transformative and full-bodied as any of these biopic performances that typically gain Oscar bait (Theory of Everything/Bohemian Rhapsody culpable). Just wanted to shower more praise on one of the performances of the year.
Robert De Niro could land his 8th Oscar nomination for acting for "Killers of the Flower Moon"
ERIC: I'd love to spend some time discussing Melton, Ruffalo, and Dafoe, but before we do, indulge me on this Hot Take: I don't think Robert De Niro will be nominated for Flower Moon. I think that first, the film itself is loved more on Film Twitter than by actual human beings, and I also think there's a sense of fatigue about De Niro and his collaborations with Scorsese? Am I wrong here?
CHRIS: This isn't the most foolproof way to assess a performance's Oscar chances, but I tend to think about passion. How much passion is there for a given actor/performance (aka are people going to place them at the top of their ballots)? While yes, I could sometimes consider myself in the Film Twitter hive mind, the strong box office for Killers of the Flower Moon makes me think there's a fair bit of support for the film from the public. A domestic total of $67 million domestic is nothing to scoff at for a three-and-a-half-hour adult drama in a post-pandemic environment, especially when people knew it would be streaming shortly on Apple.
In regards to your hot take, De Niro does feel like an actor people might leave off the ballot because they think "he's a de facto nominee." The awards machine around Killers of the Flower Moon put all its support behind Lily Gladstone, a worthy recipient of the attention who is looking to vault to the top of Best Actress. I personally loved De Niro's performance - my favorite of his since Goodfellas. He perfectly embodies the type of person that would be a pillar of the community on the outside, but running a sinister plot behind the scenes. The role required a dexterity and nimbleness of De Niro that I had not seen since his Goodfellas/Casino era.
Back to my point about passion, with the Globes and Critics Choice nominations, I initially believed that Charles Melton was securely in. May December hit with the general population on Netflix better than I would've expected for a Todd Haynes dark comedy about a Mary Kay Letourneau-esque scandal. He's the heart-and-soul of the film, delivering perhaps my favorite performance of the year. Even if it's not everyone's cup of tea, the heat and passion for Melton's performance makes him a contender for a nomination even without the SAG seal of approval.
Mark Ruffalo in "Poor Things". Headed for a nomination... or not?
What do you make of the Poor Things men? I think Ruffalo is more likely to earn the nomination. His dastardly sexpot, Duncan Wedderburn, is a comic highlight of the film. In so many ways, he feels in conversation with Gosling's Ken, a man who knows the world is made for him, but can't quite wield the patriarchy in the right way to make himself happy. Dafoe's Godwin, a paternal figure to our heroine, is the more sympathetic of the two performances. People who love the film may want to reward the light side and the dark side of the movie in the same category.
ERIC: I am curious to see if Charles Melton can pull off the nomination. He certainly should, as he's glorious in this role, making us feel the actual human pain behind the more performative elements of the picture. I think May December is all kinds of genius, and the purity in Melton's acting is in such brilliant contrast with the murky motivations running through the acting of Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore. Todd Haynes takes these three actors through a real workout of truly complex situations and emotions, and Melton really crushes it. But is he too young, too pretty for Oscar voters?
You mention passion when talking about De Niro. Well, Poor Things is the definition of a passion movie...people who love it LOVE it, and I think if you're voting for Ruffalo, you're voting for Dafoe. Actors will really love what Ruffalo is doing here. He's so unhinged and so divinely comic, giving us something we've never seen from him before. He's already one of Hollywood's most revered actors, and his inspired lunacy feels fresh and new -- I can't imagine he's not in. I agree that it'll be tight for Dafoe to get into that final five, but he's been on fire with Oscar this past decade, and his performance gives Poor Things a lyricism it might otherwise lack. But I'm also an enormous fan of the film, so I'm gunning for it.
What are your thoughts on RDJ and the trailing candidates?
Charles Melton with Julianne Moore in "May December"
CHRIS: Of the six you mentioned, I would also bump Downey Jr. first from the conversation. He finds the pettiness of Strauss’ crusade against Oppenheimer, but only dramatizes it in the third act of the film. It’s a little too late and he’s hardly the most memorable part of the movie. I see how Downey Jr. is stretching, keeping his charisma at bay to show new sides of his acting chops. Once the surprise wears off though, the character never extends beyond the frame of the movie.
I’ve already shared by love for Gosling and De Niro. Charles Melton gives the performance of the year in my book. On one side of the film, Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore are ACTING in all caps, giving us a gag worthy showdown. Meanwhile, Melton feels in a different movie, grounding it in real life. He’s a man who has been stunted because of this relationship and is starting to question whether these decisions he’s made are the right ones. On top of that, he convincingly dramatizes the complicated feelings that any parent would feel watching his youngest kids graduate and begin their lives. There’s so much going on inside Melton’s mind, things he wants to keep tampered down and other thoughts that can’t help bubbling to the surface. He’s the key of what turns that movie from great to masterpiece.
On Poor Things, each day my initially positive feelings sour. Still, Ruffalo gives a committed and entertaining performance that I would happily see rewarded. He’s so in tune with Yorgos Lanthimos’ arch approach to dialogue and is a joyous rube that is expertly the foil of each scene he’s in. I get the claims of Dafoe being the heart of the movie. Yet, I find it harder to buy his paternal love, despite Dafoe doing everything in his power to sell us on it. In doubling down on Godwin’s goodness, the movie ignores rather than interrogates why this man would want to play God and create Bella in the manner that he does. Dafoe is a brilliant actor who is always a welcome scene presence, but he plays to the simplest version of the character.
Stering K Brown in American Fiction. Photo by Claire Folger
I don’t see too many surprises breaking in at the last moment right now, but I am happy that Sterling K. Brown received a SAG nomination for American Fiction. He does a fantastic job at depicting the joyful chaos of a newly out gay brother struggling to express himself for the first time and show up for his family. Plus, he nails every joke, oftentimes happily making himself the butt of said joke. I had a terrific time with him and always felt like I wanted to spend more time with wherever journey he was on, the true sign of a great supporting performance.
ERIC: Hmmm…have to do a hard disagree with you on Sterling K. Brown. I love him as an actor and was so thrilled when he won his Emmy opposite Sarah Paulson. But I didn’t buy him as a newly out gay brother. He was saying the words, but there was no animal energy there, and no connection to the other gay characters we briefly see. He had that (insane) body out front and center, but no real sexuality. He is objectively a sexy person but he just didn’t radiate 'newly out' to me. His performance was fine scene by scene, but it felt lost overall. I didn’t see a fully-fleshed-out human, just a charming actor saying funny things. I would be super sad to see him snag a nomination against so many truly interesting and accomplished performances. Agree to disagree with my sweet friend Chris. Who are some other scene-stealers you liked this year?
CHRIS: Just like Charles Melton is the outlier note that makes May December work, John Magaro makes Past Lives a more interesting film in the ways he eschews convention with how he reacts to his wife’s former flame coming into town. Noah Galvin’s turn in Theater Camp provided a showstopper that had me marveling at his talent as well as howling with laughter. Every part of All of Us Strangers had me in tears, but we cannot keep taking Jamie Bell for granted. His warm, paternal energy shines through in Andrew Haigh’s masterpiece. Finally, Jacob Elordi is having the best year and, whether its Priscilla or Saltburn, he deserves award recognition for the ways he weaponizes his looks to draw people into his web.
I would consider Dominic Sessa a lead performance, but nevertheless would like to congratulate him on a star-making performance in The Holdovers. His character’s prickliness and youthful rebellion always comes off as endearing and authentic. He also plays so well off his terrific co-stars Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who always give him room to shine and play into their relationship.
Is there anyone else you wish were getting mentioned more?
Here are my predictions:
- Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling-Barbie
- Willem Dafoe-Poor Things
...and - Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
- Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
Can Dominic Sessa be a surprise nominee for The Holdovers (despite little precursor support)?
ERIC: I loved Dominic Sessa too, he’s marvelous in the film, but wow, he is inarguably a lead (more time than Giamatti, I think, and everything revolves around his story). And I’d like to give an ensemble shout-out to all of the men in the cast of The Society of Snow. They are always, at all times, entering every scene at a very high pitch of anguish and existential dread, no easy task, and they make you fully aware of the scale of their struggle. They work together beautifully, too.
My predictions are 3/5 the same as yours, but I’m going with:
- Downey
- Gosling
- Dafoe
- Ruffalo
...and - Melton, in a squeeze
Your turn readers. With the precursor awards and general conversation keeping eight men squarely in the conversation, who do you think will be nominated on Tuesday (and who are you rooting for?)
Reader Comments (19)
Robert Downey Jr. is the clear front-runner yet I hope it goes to Willem Dafoe for Poor Things as he was on another level but was also moving in his performance.
I’m going to guess that the Poor Things men split the vote and end up both left out just like at the BAFTA awards. And despite recent misses, I feel like May December could end up being a Foxcatcher-like situation where it had momentum in the beginning, lost a lot of it leading up to the nominations, but then wound up overperforming. So I’m going with:
Brown
De Niro
Downey Jr.
Gosling
Melton
In a perfect world, Stone and Gosling would have Oscar trophies on their shelves this year. But while Emma would have to apologize for hers, Gosling needs no apologies. He is perfection, or "sublime." Every moment he is on screen is genius, even if I felt Ken's redemption scene went on a beat too long. Inspired acting at its finest, and the abs look totally photo shopped.
I think RDJ is pretty good in Oppenheimer, but you're right that it's his first real acting in decades, and that's to the clear benefit of the performance.
He's had such a strange career - and unlike Gosling, Ruffalo, Dafoe, he's not an actor where you're like "why doesn't he have an Oscar yet?"
I’m wondering if I watched the same movie as everyone else because I don’t get the love for Gosling - I didn’t laugh once at his performance and thought it very caricature-ish. Not a performance I think should be in award conversation… but I guess that’s just me in a very minority group of one LOL
Edwin: The Poor Things men did not cancel each other out at the BAFTA nominations. Ruffalo was longlisted, Dafoe was not, it's just that in the end Ruffalo missed the nomination.
I'm one of those who's rooting for RDJ to take this one. For such a charismatic actor, I'd never seen him be this petulant and pathetic, and I was riveted every minute of it. I found Barbie, overall, incredibly flawed, but everything about Gosling's performance works.
DeNiro, Downey Jr and Gosling are locked, they have been all along.
One of them missing would be a tragedy.
They are great, they deserve all the accolades.
I'm not a big fan of Downey Jr, but I can't deny that he's excellent in “Oppenheimer”.
DeNiro, completely out of the conversation for "The Irishman", with all the recognition going to Pacino and Pesci - deservedly so, I must say - will not be missed this year for "KOTFM". In fact, I think he can actually win! It's his best performances in decades.
Gosling is extraordinary, it's a performance for the ages, he stole the show and is the best thing about that silly movie.
So, two slots...
I want Bell and Sarsgaard.
I think it will be Sessa and Dafoe.
I have no problems with Brown, Elordi or Mescal.
The big disappointment for me will be if Melton and Ruffalo get the nominations.
Where people see introspection in Melton, I see a inexpressive face and blank performance.
And Ruffallo... well, it's beyond my comprehension how that pathetic and hammy actor has three Oscar nominations.
Considering there was an almost 25-year gap between Casino and The Irishman, this doesn't really track. It may be true about DiCaprio and Scorsese, though.
In any case, my rankings (not predictions):
Gosling
Graner (Anatomy of a Fall)
Galvin (Theater Camp)
De Niro
Ruffalo
Downey
Dafoe
Bernthal (Origin)
Elordi (Saltburn)
Sarsgaard (would have been #1), Melton & Sessa are hard to rank, because I feel they are co-leads with an unfair advantage.
still unseen: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Priscilla, Society of the Snow
Great read thanks for going deep.
I am on your side regarding Downey Jr he is just present in the first couple of hours and then in the last hour or so the acting came in,like he woke up and thought i'd better do some acting now,he's solid but runaway frontrunner doesn't seem right,I find his snarky persona on award shows a real turn off.
Gosling is finding new ways all the time to be hilarious and though I laughed,I didn't like the last few scenes he had but i'm not a Barbie fan,he's the most inspired candidate and totally different from other things he's done.
De Niro is okay but he's so one note,why would anyone be fooled by him,I wished Martin had cast someone else and give us a surprise,I kept thinking of Harrison Ford or Ed Harris,his role lacks passion votes,
Ruffalo and Dafoe are as overdue as Downey Jr,I don't want to see Dafoe sit and clap disappointedly for someone else,his career not Downey Jr's deserves the award if you are giving it as a career win,could Dafoe win SAG and then a groundswell rallies around him for the win a la Chastain
Ruffalo is the one snub I think is coming and Bafta told me I could be right.
I've been very impressed with the younger newcomers this year Elordi,Sessa,Melton,Magaro and all of them would deserve a nomination.
Sterling K Brown only gets in if American Fiction goes over bigger than expected,I'm not familiar with him though,not sure if i've seen him much apart from Waves.
Final Ranking Sessa,Gosling,Dafoe and then the 2 Roberts.
On Tuesday, hearing Robbie, Gosling, Ferrara over Portman, Melton, Moore just might be my sign to sit this year out.
Tony L - I totally agree with you on Gosling’s performance, it was more of an SNL character bit in my eyes. Felt like he was winking to the audience with every line reading. At various points he was even very visibly holding in a a laugh. Would have liked to see him commit to the role a little more seriously like James Marsden in Enchanted. That being said, I love Gosling otherwise and he was passed over by Oscar for some deserved nominations so I’m ok with him getting in for a performance I don’t like.
Stephen C - thank you for agreeing with me. I was feeling like a lone man on an island :)
TheVoid99, Dafoe wouldn't be my first choice to win, but I agree that he as moving in a role that doesn't lean towards being moving. Again, in 20-50 years, he would be a great winner. The performance will hold as great, and Dafoe should have an Oscar by now.
Frank Zappa, i'm well aware of the gap between films, but the reason that fatigue tracks is because "Scorsese/De Niro" is one of the most famous collaborations in the industry, stretching over ten films. even though there's a gap in years, everyone knows what kind of projects they do, and there's a feeling of "i know what that is...i've seen it...it's not new". MrRipley79 notes exactly that in his comment ("I wish Martin had cast someone else and given us a surprise"). Don't get me started about fatigue over him and Leo. Martin Scorsese and Leonardo Di Caprio are the only two humans alive who think that Martin Scorsese and Leonardo Di Caprio bring out the best in each other!
And TonyL, i'm with you. if none of the May December actors get nominations, that's a crazy travesty. Julianne Moore is acting circles around Blunt, Brooks, Ferrera, and others in tne mix (those other actors are fine, but they're not doing what Julie's doing!).
Gosling should be winning in a cakewalk! He was the best part of one of the biggest movies of the year, and he has quite the resume too. Sadly, people couldn't rally around a comedic performance being recognized, at least not that kind of comedy. He was hysterical. The movie isn't perfect, but he was. He nailed the tone and landed every joke.
"very caricature-ish" -- SPOILER: He's playing a doll. :-)
It'll be very interesting to see who fills the last two slots of this category! As good as Dominic Sessa was, he's a definite lead in The Holdovers, and that would be some massive category fraud.
@EricB
That quarter century gap is why many folks (like me) have been overjoyed to see them collaborating again, especially those (like me) who are tired of the Leo chapter. So it can go either way.
I am the stick in the mud who did not like Barbie and pretty much loathed Poor Things. Gosling delivered a cute cartoon performance, Dafoe was fine, and I agree with those above who pointed out that Ruffalo was an amateurish ham -- certainly the performance I'm most rooting against.
My personal favorite supporting male performance was Paul Mescal in All of Us Strangers. I'm guessing that film will be totally shut out (why DID they wait until beyond the last minute to roll it out, and what a tragedy for Andrew Scott).
RDJ was fine and of course will be nominated. I very much enjoyed DeNiro's sleazebag performance -- it felt like he was not coasting for once.
Melton was terrific (albeit a lead), but I worry about that film's chances in all categories, as well.
Much as I loved American Fiction, I didn't buy Sterling Brown as a gay man, as much as I liked looking at Sterling Brown as a gay man.
Predictions:
DeNiro
Downey
Gosling
Melton
Sessa
Remember The Judge, Downey's last bid to win an Oscar? One of the worst Oscar-bait movies of the past decade. There are so many performances in Oppenheimer that would be more deserving than Downey's.
EricB: I get the fatigue (I had that same fatigue a few years ago with the Time Burton/Johnny Depp collab), but I would argue Scorsese has gotten some of DiCaprio's best performances, my favorite being The Wolf of Wall Street, but I also find him solid in The Departed and in parts of The Aviator.
I find DiCaprio to be a much stronger actor when he's playing characters who are unhinged, or characters that are built upon a restless and nervous energy (which is why I prefer him in more comedic performances). Brooding DiCaprio is unbearable, particularly because he's the kind of actor who seems to be constantly showing his work, making everyone aware of every tic and every choice he's making, and his best performances are those where he makes that work to his advantage (this is why Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is my favorite performance of his... also Catch Me If You Can is delightful work)... and, I see this is an unpopular opinion at this site, but I really like what he's doing in Killers of the Flower Moon, once again, because he's working the nervous energy.
Richter -- interesting. I s wholeheartedly share your opinion about Leo's best work (wolf, departed, aviator, once upon, catch me...) so it's interesting that i loathe his performance in Killers and you would pair it with those. I couldn't pair it with those at all because they have such a freewheeling energy whereas here he is so constipated. For me he simply isn't up to the task of this role, choosing to put on a grump village- idiot face in every scene. I didn't even buy the anguish about betraying his wife because he was giving me no conception that he loved her in the first place on some level.
I think there was a great tragic performance somewhere in the screenplay and it hurts my heart that this is what we got and that he has been nominated for some awards for it, too!