April Foolish Predictions: Setting the Table for "Best Picture"
Monday, April 15, 2024 at 6:00PM
by Nathaniel R
Is it anticlimactic to start our annual blindfold guessing with Best Picture? Of course! Does it make sense? That, too! You all know the drill. If a film has Best Picture heat they have a leg up in every single category, whether or not they deserve it in that particular category. Best Picture heat means that people end up aware of and actually screening your movie. If you think about it, that’s half the battle. So as we stumble foolishly into April prophecies in all categories, roughly ten months before Oscar nominations will even roll around (January 17 next year), we have to set the major playing field first.
We call these April Foolish Predictions because who can possibly know a thing in April?!? Last year at this time nobody would have seen Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest emerging as major Oscar titles. They were already tipped for Cannes, of course, but Cannes and Oscars are very different contests, despite what ended up happening last season. The increasing globalization of the Oscar race makes predicting even harder (we love a challenge!) because who can possibly know which of the hundreds of non-English language titles vying for global attention at festivals will catch the English-language audience’s fancy in a big way? It stands to reason that a non-English language picture will factor into the race again but we’ll have to wait for festival buzz on that front to narrow it down from hundreds of options to a few.
Anyway here are 15 pictures we think could enter the awards conversation...
THE APPRENTICE
They all look either promising or prestigious or hard-to-ignore (on paper)... or in one case, we just wanted to use some wishful thinking because if it turns out to be true, we'll feel like a lotter winner! Which of these actually become Oscar players? Which will be greeted with shrugs? In alpha order they are…
THE APPRENTICE (Distribution?)
We’ve been assuming that the very talented Ali Abbassi would have a mainstream breakthrough soon given that he followed up two incredible Oscar-submitted Swedish movies, Border and Holy Spider, directing great episodes of the English language zeitgeist hit The Last of Us. But we didn’t remotely suspect he’d follow them up with a movie about the young Donald T***p (Sebastian Stan). Apart from the movie’s quality, a lot will depend on whether or not the industry will want to watch a movie about T***p. If the corrosive would be autocrat loses the upcoming election, people might tune in from a safe distance, but if he (god forbid) wins, is anyone going to have the stomach to also think about him when they’re at the movies? Still Abassi is amazing, Sebastian Stan has really been testing his range, and Oscar nominee Maria Bakalova is playing Ivanka Trump which sounds like inspired casting. Date TBA
BLITZ (Apple)
Provocative genius Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave, Shame, Hunger) is back again but this time dealing with one of Oscar’s favourite topics: World War II. The movie is about Londoners during the Blitz. Saoirse Ronan leads what we’ll assume is more of an ensemble piece than a star vehicle. So who gets the best roles? Date TBA
CONCLAVE (Focus Features)
Edward Berger proved he could grab Hollywood’s attention very recently with the German Oscar winner All Quiet on the Western Front. For his follow up, an English language dramatic thriller about a Cardinal (Ralph Fiennes) tasked with leading the selection of a new Pope. It’s based on the book by Robert Harris. Previous adaptations of Harris' suspense novels have not been awards favourites (though The Ghost Writer arguably came close) but the team here is strong. Above all else we hope it’s a great showcase for Fiennes who has been far too long ignored at the Oscars. November 1st.
DUNE PART TWO © Warner Bros
DUNE PART TWO (Warner Bros)
We’re skeptical that middle films in trilogies have what it takes at the Oscars (Please note that The Two Towers was the LOTR picture that Oscar voters paid the least attention to) but, at the very least, Denis Villeneuve’s epic scale and craftsmanship will excite at least a few branches of voters even with its very early release date. The real pressing question with this film, is how many sequels can Oscar stomach in one season? As a voting body they've never been much interested in sequels but for the past 25 years the cinematic landscape has become so series-based that they've been forced to get more comfortable. Still with Dune 2, Gladiator 2, Mad Max 5, and Joker 2 all premiering this year, all of which have Oscar-history, this will be a test drive for the Academy's comfort level with franchise culture. March 1st
THE END (Neon)
Any takers for an “apocalyptic musical”? Maybe this one will be too weird? Maybe it won’t pull off all its ambitions? Maybe it will excite critics but not the industry? Maybe it will be a masterpiece? Who knows but it’s the first narrative feature from ingenious documentarian Joshua Oppenheimer (The Act of Killing,The Look of Silence) and it stars Michael Shannon, George MacKay, and Tilda Swinton as a wealthy family living in a Versaille-like bunker. We’re very curious. Date TBA
THE FIRE INSIDE (Amazon/MGM)
This was known by the much less generic title Flint Strong in production. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) wrote and produced this true story from cinematographer-turned-director Rachel Morrison about a female boxer in Michigan (Ryan Destiny) training for the Olympics. Sports dramas are not, by any stretch of the imagination, Oscars favourite genre. But it’s worth noting that among sports movies, boxing movies are their favourite. Jenkins involvement has our attention. August 9th.
GLADIATOR TWO (Paramount)
Legacy sequels are a big thing in Hollywood board rooms and while they usually scream “We want money!” more than “We want Oscars!”, sometimes you can aim for the former and manage to surprise in terms of the latter (see generous nomination counts for Top Gun Maverick and The Force Awakens). Ridley Scott hasn’t directed an Oscar favourite since The Martian over a decade ago. Can he return? Nov 22nd
HARD TRUTHS © Thin Man Films Ltd
HARD TRUTHS (Bleecker Street)
Oscar fanatics were immediately excited about the news that the still Oscar-less Mike Leigh was reuniting with Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Secrets and Lies). We’re also excited…. but a word of caution. Oscar voters are unpredictable when it comes to Leigh movies outside of screenplay; Secrets and Lies is the only one of his contemporary-set films to score multiple Oscar nominations.
JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (Warner Bros)
On the one hand, Oscar voters aren’t obsessed with sequels. On the other hand, they were way way too excited about Joker (2019) so maybe they’ll be passionate about this one, too? At the very least it’s guaranteed to be a ubiquitous topic of conversation and that’s good for campaigns. The fact that it's a musical should at least help it feel less like a lazy cash grab and more like an ambitious follow-up. October 4th.
MARIA © Pablo Larraín
MARIA (Distribution?)
Though Chilean master Pablo Larraín’s Spanish language films are always about men in violent environs (Neruda, NO, El Conde, Tony Manero, etcetera) his English language pictures are violence free but emotionally volatile slice-of-life fictionalized biopics about uber famous women; a strange double-track career. Jackie and Spencer both led to Oscar nominations for their leading ladies. Will this third in the unofficial trilogy, which is about opera singer Maria Callas (Angelina Jolie) do the same… or score more broadly? Date TBA
MEGALOPOLIS (Distribution?)
Francis Ford Coppola turns 85 this month. The legendary auteur is in post-production on his first feature in several years. Bram Stoker’s Dracula (which is now more than 30 years old) was the last time that audiences, critics, and the industry were all quite interested in a Coppola picture. Still this effort will prove harder to ignore than his recent pictures given the ambition and the cast. It’s about an architect who wants to rebuild New York City into a utopia. It sounds ambitious and the cast is filled with names. If it’s good expect a major comeback narrative to propel it towards votes. We'll learn a lot more about its future fate next month at Cannes. Date TBA
THE NICKEL BOYS (MGM)
Another wild card title. Director RaMell Ross (Oscar-nominated for the documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening) makes his narrative debut with this drama based on a Pulitzer prize winning novel about a young man sent to a brutal and racist reform school. Date TBA
NIGHT BITCH (Searchlight)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) returns with a surreal story of a suburban mom turning into a dog. It sounds too “weird” for Oscar but voters have inarguably become more receptive to strange contours and genre influences than they were ten years ago. Plus Heller has yet to make a less than involving movie. Perpetually Oscarless Amy Adams has the lead role. Does the December 'only in theaters' date mean Searchlight has high hopes? Dec 6th
THE SHROUDS
THE SHROUDS (Distributor?)
Legendary auteur David Cronenberg has never been Oscar-nominated. That's a shame but it's understandable given that he helped shaped an entire subgenre of one of the things Oscar cares least about: Horror. So for our one wishful thinking title we're including his latest, a personal film about a widower (Vincent Cassel) attempting to build a device to commune with his dead wife (Diane Kruger, who appears to be playing three characters - exciting!) We'll know next month if this title is accessible enough to generate awards conversations in the way only four of Cronenberg movies have really managed across the decades (The Fly, Dead Ringers, A History of Violence , and Eastern Promises) though none were fully embraced by Oscar voters in the end. Because April Foolish predictions aren't fun if you don't try to imagine at least one unlikely situation, this is the one I'm going with. Since it's in competition at Cannes we'll know very soon how smart or stupid its inclusion is right here. Date TBA
WICKED (Universal)
Recent screen adaptations of Broadway musicals have taught us that Chicago (2002) may have been a fluke and Oscar voters really aren’t that interested in the genre. Nevertheless this one will be hard to escape. If it’s very good, we could see it beating the odds and competing across the board. That said, the decision to split it into two movies when it already has too much “filler” in its Broadway incarnation (where it is only the length of any given long-winded prestige movies) doesn’t exactly inspire confidence! Nov 27th
WICKED © Universal
Six more possibilities but we had to quit somewhere: Another flashy franchise hopeful Furiosa, Broadway transfer The Piano Lesson, Pedro Almodóvar's The Room Next Door (if it's finished in time), and Sundance dramedy hits A Real Pain and Didi.
WANT THE CHARTS?
Since BEST PICTURE favor is extremely statistically connected to BEST DIRECTOR, ORIGINAL / ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, and BEST FILM EDITING, all five of those 'kindred' prediction charts are up. Take a look and report back with your thoughts.
Best Picture, Oscars (24)
Reader Comments (20)
Do you think Long Day’s Journey Into Night will be more about Jessica Lange turning a Tony-winning performance into an Oscar-winning performance, with a side of Ed Harris overdue status, than the movie as a whole?
Side-note - I’m SO EXCITED because in May I’m going to NYC to see Jessica Lange in Mother Play and I HAVE A FRONT ROW SEAT!!!
I'm also weirdly optimistic about The Shrouds. It sounds, in a weird way, like Cronenberg's Irishman/Pain & Glory/Fablemans. I can't wait to see it!
Thought A Different Man would have enough buzz to appear here - it was all I read about during Sundance.
Your chart indicates that Todd Phillips missed a directing nomination for JOKER, which is not true.
I'm hoping if there's one Sebastian Stan vehicle to pop this upcoming awards season that it's A DIFFERENT MAN. Haven't seen it yet, but people seem to love it (and him in it). Would rather see that a million times than ever see THE APPRENTICE.
Wait, they changed “Flint Strong” to “The Fire Inside”? Wasn’t that also the name of the annual, generic Diane Warren Oscar-nominated song? You could literally name ANYTHING “The Fire Inside.”
Oh, I thought you were in rehab after the Pfeiffer/Chloë Moretz/Xmas movie news.
Not to be a downer, but this isn't a list that gets me excited for the year to come. I can see Conclave and Gladiator Two (although Napoleon ...) being traditional Best Picture winners, but beyond those either the subjects or the teams behind the pictures raise serious questions. That said, the more I hear about The Shrouds the more interesting it sounds.
bvrs90 -- you're right.
David -- i know. ugh. it's so gross.
ryan t -- you and me both. but Oscar is almost always more interested in biographies than fiction (sigh)
scott c -- i hear you. When i was doing the research i was like "oh, i hope the festivals surprise because this doesn't look exciting". but of course maybe some of these will be great!
peggy sue -- i just cant with here. I love her sooooooo much and she just mystifies every time (and it's actually been like this since the 1990s (!) her choices are so head-scratching.
I don't usually pick favorites before I see the movies, but Mike Leigh and Ralph Fiennes are so overdue. It would be great to see them win next year.
Excited to have these forecasts again but I hope you haven't given up on finishing last year's Film Bitch awards!
I think the best Wicked can hope for is huge box office and the sort of polite praise The Color Purple got this year. These Broadway adaptations just don’t work, and Wicked is a particularly garish property in the first place—the colors, setpieces, BROAD characters just aren’t made for the screen.
Add the fact that it’s half a musical, and who would be excited about it as a BP contender?
I feel like the multi-year Wicked era is something we're all going to have to suffer through but not really love or enjoy like Barbie or Dune, lol.
I hope Loves Lies Bleeding can find some traction this season. That's the kind of exciting, bold filmmaking I'd like to see rewarded. A familiar set of tropes done in a completely different way.
I continue to be confused as to why Universal is looking to break the bank on Wicked. It doesn't seem like the type of picture that needs to be split into two parts. The trailer also looked like a CGI mess.
I'm very excited about Blitz, but I'm curious about why its been held for so long. Even if it's not a hit with the Academy, McQueen always delivers exciting films. I'm curious to see what he does with a young-ish female lead. He's never told a story from that perspective before.
I really can't wait for Conclave and Maria. Both of these films have great actors in leading roles. I'm also curious about what Larrain has to say about Callas, since I know so much less about her.
I think Denis will get his Best Director nod, but for a film that's not awarded or loved as his first outing.
A Real Pain looks like the type of film that will be a BP/Best Actor/Screenplay contender. And depending on the size of her role and impact, I wouldn't be shocked if Jennifer Grey gets some notices. I get the sense that it could be this year's American Fiction.
Also, though it would have been hard to predict Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest this far out, I do think looking at the Cannes roster is a good start for predictions. Most of the non-English language BP nominees have premiered at Cannes in the past few years (though Venice and Toronto still work too). Maybe Emilia Perez?
Not sure why we're ignoring Vera Drake in the Mike Leigh writeup? (I don't think the period of the movie has anything to do with it.) Anywho..
Wicked looks like a hot mess. I smell a big bomb.
Excited for the Cronenberg entry, although I agree it doesn't seem like something Oscar would recognize.
Generally, though, this is a very blah list after a best-that-you-could-hope-for 2023 lineup.
I'm most excited about Mike Leigh's return, even if the film is not an Oscar player. After all, he's back with Marianne Jean-Baptiste!,
Wicked is giving me Tim Burton/Alice in Wonderland vibes. I bet it'll be a disaster, just like Dear Evan Hansen. Broadway is a different beast - the best film musicals are always originals instead of adaptations.
I don’t think Wicked will bomb commercially but I think it may bomb critically or at least not break through in the way it needs to to be nominated. I would love to see Cynthia Erivo back even if it is just to perform at the Oscars. Her voice is so sublime.
Hope springs eternal for anything Amy Adams is involved in.
I thought Holy Spider was an incredible film, but like everyone sane in the western world I’m
So sick of that psychopath’s face & voice & cancer everywhere that it will have to be exceptional for me to watch no matter how unflattering.
Not mentioned here but I’m curious about Oh, Canada. If only for more Uma.
Hey Nathaniel R, saw what you have and looks good so far. Also here is something to help you while editing is the 97th Academy Awards night will be on March 2, 2025.
"Sing Sing" could be the "little movie that could" that we're sleeping on. Consider:
- topical and important subject matter
- it shines a spotlight on an underrepresented population (a la EEAAO, Coda, Nomadland, Moonlight)
- many actors in the film are former inmates themselves, so there's a built-in narrative / rooting factor
- rave reviews
- it's literally about the necessity and healing power of the dramatic arts
- A24 is a strong campaigning studio
- some career-best notices for Colman Domingo in Best Actor (fresh off his 1st nomination, as a lone nominee, he'd have a similar path to win as Colin Firth)
- revelation / discovery notices for Clarence Maclin in Best Supporting Actor (unknowns can win in this category when it takes hold, a la Troy Kotsur, Christoph Waltz for IB; IMO his biggest hurdle is that he plays a fictionalized version of himself)
- seeing these actors go from prison all the way to the Oscars makes the AMPAS feel like they're making a difference without actually having to do anything (which they can never resist)
Food for thought.