Team Experience: Final Oscar Nominations Predictions!

by Cláudio Alves

We predict EMILIA PÉREZ is about to make Oscar history.

With the Oscar nominations mere hours away, it's time to present the Team Experience's final predictions. Like last time, you get each writer's individual guesses, followed by an aggregate collective prediction. Tallying everything up, the Team Experience believes Emilia Pérez will be the nomination leader with eleven mentions, which would make it the most nominated non-English-language film of all time. The musical is closely followed by The Brutalist and Conclave, which have nine each. We also see Wicked scoring eight categories, while Dune: Part Two settles for seven. In the 2023/4 season, we averaged 70% correct predictions, with Nathaniel and I leading the pack with 73% accuracy. Time will tell what pundit claims victory this year…

This is the same group of ten we predicted pre-Globes, but there's been a lot of moving around within those predictions. Emilia Pérez, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and The Substance all rose, while all others fell a spot or two, or four in Anora's case. Such movements result from the Globes shaking the race up with some stirring speeches and a bunch of notorious omissions. There are also the guilds to contend with, skewing the season's overall narrative away from Sean Baker's Palme d'Or winner and toward other titles. It's worth noting that this is the PGA lineup with Sing Sing swapped in to replace September 5.

In Best Director, the Nickel Boys' poor guild performance knocked RaMell Ross off the predicted five. In contrast, The Substance's consistent popularity brought Coralie Fargeat to the forefront, even though she missed DGA. Curiously, after Sean Baker topped the pre-Globes chart, Corbet and Audiard jumped ahead for this final round. Will the Oscar race come down to those two?

Best Actress is one of the most volatile categories, with four apparently safe contenders and a single slot fought over by a plethora of potential nominees. Between the nine TFE writers, it seems Cynthia Erivo is the most vulnerable of the frontrunner quartet, a potential victim to the Academy's ranked preferential ballots. Will she get enough #1 votes to secure her spot? Conversely, will the real passion behind such campaigns as Torres and Jean-Baptiste's materialize a nod? Statistically, the Brazillian star of I'm Still Here is likelier to get in, as only two Best Actress – Drama Golden Globe winners have ever missed the Oscar nomination. They were Shirley MacLaine in 1988 for Madame Sousatzka and Kate Winslet in 2008 for Revolutionary Road. Then again, MacLaine won in a three-way tie, and Winslet was Oscar-nominated for The Reader that same season. If Torres misses, it'll be unprecedented.

Best Actor is much less exciting – business as usual if you ask me – with only the last spot being up for grabs. And even then, it seems like a two-way race between Daniel Craig in Queer and Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. The former suffers from his film being generally ignored this season, only ever scoring nods for him. The latter may split votes with himself for A Different Man. And yet, I wonder if Jesse Eisenberg might surprise us all. I'm not brave enough to predict such an upset, however.

Who knows what'll happen in Best Supporting Actress? Somehow, this race is even more chaotic than its leading counterpart, with only Saldaña and Grande feeling 100% locked. Anything could happen with the three remaining slots, though we're collectively predicting Monica Barbaro with a nepo baby duo in tow.

The only Best Supporting Actor contenders predicted by everyone are Kieran Culkin and Edward Norton. Yura Borisov and Guy Pearce are next in line in terms of likelihood, but Nathaniel and I have doubts about each man, respectively. If Denzel Washington is nominated, as three pundits are predicting, it'll be the first time he scores at the Oscars without a matching SAG nod.

A Real Pain and Anora are Original Screenplay locks. Anything goes with those three other slots, with most writers predicting Hard Truths, though The Brutalist scores higher in our point system. The group is generally skeptical about September 5, but a few pundits still feel it'll make a splash with AMPAS.

In Adapted Screenplay, only Conclave and Sing Sing score mentions from all writers. Emilia Pérez got close, if not for Eurocheese's hunch that it'll get snubbed. Speaking of idiosyncratic hunches, Nathaniel and Nick remain convinced that The Room Next Door will get some Academy love. One thing's for sure – you should never bet against Sony Pictures Classics, who know how to campaign like few others in Tinsel Town.

This category often feels like a collection of Best Picture frontrunners with the occasional action movie thrown in. I guess Dune: Part Two fits the bill, being action-adjacent. I'm still convinced September 5 makes it here, if nowhere else, even though I'm not especially fond of its cutting.

Could Nickel Boys' first-person lensing score it a Best Cinematography nomination? Like its directors' counterpart, the cinematographers' branch is known to have a taste for adventure and slightly more arthouse-inclined titles. Yet, will that benefit Nickel Boys or something like The Girl with the Needle? It feels odd that no one predicted A Complete Unknown since Phedon Papamichael is a beloved nominee from past years – not beloved by me, mind you.

Wicked is a lock and the frontrunner, according to everyone but Eric Blume. Everyone is also in agreement that Dune and The Brutalist are likely Best Production Design nominees. Then, it's a three-way tussle over the remaining two slots, with Conclave and Nosferatu pulling ahead. Then again, last year, the branch nominated Napoleon after everyone had decided it was done as far as awards were concerned. Could history repeat itself with Ridley Scott's newest historical epic?

Best Costume Design is trickier, still, with Wicked an absolute lock followed by a bunch of vulnerable contenders. The quintet in the collective predictions are all former nominees, with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice's Colleen Atwood and Gladiator II's Janty Yates being previous winners. Curiously, Yates won the Oscar for the first Gladiator. In the annals of the Academy's history, only once has a Costume Design winner been nominated for their work in the picture's direct sequel. It was Ruth E. Carter for the Black Panther movies. Moreover, she won, a feat I don't think Yates is at risk of repeating.

Is it odd that no one predicted Dune? In any case, only The Substance feels locked for this notoriously unpredictable race. It's also our frontrunner, managing to transcend AMPAS' anti-horror bias on its way to gold. At least, that's what Team Experience is predicting at the moment.

I shudder at the thought of Mufasa: The Lion King becoming an Oscar nominee, as Eric and Abe have predicted. Then again, the first "live-action" Lion King got this nomination, ultimately losing to 1917 in a surprise upset that, in retrospect, shouldn't have been as surprising as all that.

To me, the Best Original Score race feels a tad volatile, but you wouldn't guess it based on these results. Everyone has precited The Brutalist, Conclave, Challengers, and The Wild Robot, but only Abe, Ben, and Nathaniel doubt Emilia Pérez will make it. I wonder if one of the other shortlisted scores could pose a threat, something none of us is predicting.

Nick is the resident Diane Warren non-believer since everyone else has grown resigned over her permanent spot in the Best Original Song race. Still, Emilia Pérez remains the frontrunner, with "El Mal" edging ahead of "Mi Camino" after its Golden Globe victory. It helps that it might be the film's only memorable song. At least, I can remember its basic melody, which isn't true of any of its other tunes.

I really want to believe that Blitz can get a Best Sound nomination, as it is the best of the shortlisted achievements. Fingers crossed that Eric and Chris are right for predicting it, even though I believe Gladiator II will score the nod instead. Will Emilia Pérez become the first AI-assisted musical to get a nomination here? Heaven knows the sound branch loves music-centered narratives.

Best Animated Feature is the only race where everyone predicted the same five. That alone makes me want to change my prediction, and go back to my pre-Globes guess that Moana 2's massive box office pulls it ahead of Adam Elliot's Memoir of a Snail.

Beyond Sugarcane and No Other Land, nobody's safe in the Best Documentary feature race. Indeed, even those two might be more vulnerable than expected, as this branch is known to surprise pundits. I only hope the Palestinian documentary doesn't become the year's big snub. In other news, if these five make it, the lineup will be dominated by anti-colonialist sentiment, with only Daughters differing in theme.

In Best International Feature, France's Emilia Pérez, Brazil's I'm Still Here, and Germany's The Seed of the Sacred Fig are locked and loaded. From there, it's a tricky category where anything can happen. Even so, I'm surprised I was the only one to predict Flow. I get that double-dipping in these specialty feature categories is rare, but the cat flick seems poised to do it.

There's not much to say about the shorts' categories, where even the best pundits struggle to succeed. Indeed, some of the team members chose to sit these ones out. It would be funny if AMPAs managed to nominate some of the only four shortlisted titles we all kept out of our Animated Short predictions.

Best Documentary Short, at least, has one movie everybody agrees will show up. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine is as close as it gets to a lock and, even then, nobody would be too shocked if AMPAS ignored it altogether.

Finally, Anuja and The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent seem poised for Best Live-Action Short nominations, in part because they've been campaigning well. The former certainly fills this category's storied predilection for tales of suffering children. Looking back, I probably should have placed it higher on my predictions.

What about you, dear reader? Please share your predictions in the comments.

Comments

[DAVID S]

I could easily see the snub in Best Actress actually being Karla Sofia Gascon.

Don't be surprised if Best Actress looks like below and BOTH Torres and Jean-Baptiste get in due to high placement votes:

-Demi Moore
-Mikey Madison
-Cynthia Erivo
-Fernanda Torres
-Marianne Jean-Baptiste

[M B]

I thought best picture was the only category to employ the preferential ballot with all other categories using popular vote.

[Cláudio Alves]

M B -- They expanded it a while ago. At least, in the nomination phase. This excerpt is from the 97th Academy Awards rulebook, rule five, referring to the balloting and nominations in all categories:

"...In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the
preferential or reweighted range voting system..."

[Martin]

Can I ask you Claudio, are there any performances (or just one) that really stuck with you or blew you away this year ?
I haven't seen half of them - but feel there is a lot of hype for various and legitimate reasons - but not really the one for the ages. The one that lasts - because it routed...
Lately it looks like we only get them every 10 years ;-) like Blanchett 2014 - Theron 2004 - Hunter 1994...
I so want to be more excited this year ... at the moment I only am about Fiennes, as he needs to be rewarded for historical neglect.

[Cláudio Alves]

Martin -- Very few of the performances I'm most passionate about are anywhere near an Oscar nomination. The ones that left a big mark were Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Fernanda Torres, and Daniel Craig. To a lesser extent, Demi Moore and Sebastian Stan, too.

Looking beyond the Oscars, I strongly recommend...

Joan Chen, DÌDI
Léa Drucker, LAST SUMMER
Juliette Gariépy, RED ROOMS
André Holland, EXHIBITING FORGIVENESS
Nicole Kidman, BABYGIRL
Keith Kupferer, GHOSTLIGHT
Kani Kusruti, GIRLS WILL BE GIRLS
Cillian Murphy, SMALL THINGS LIKE THESE
James Norton, NOWHERE SPECIAL
Adam Pearson, A DIFFERENT MAN
Léa Seydoux, THE BEAST
Craig Tate, NICKEL BOYS

[Mr Ripley79]

My own predictions

Best Actor Stan,Craig,Chalamet,Fiennes,Brody.

I see Domingo being the surprise miss,I think Stan and Craig will have passion votes.

Best Actress

Moore,Gascon,Torres,Baptiste,Madison

I think Erivo is a surprise miss due to Ariana stealing the film from her,the lightweight nature of the role and no wins anywhere a la Robbie 2024 plus always next year.

Supp Actor

Pearce,Culkin,Norton,Strong,Borisov

Maclin misses due to his film not being loved overall.

Supp Actress

Curtis,Barabo,Jones,Saldana,Grande

Qualley is a Mila Kunis 2,0 and Gomez misses due to her co stars eating up the buzz and Rossellini due to not realy giving a performance

[Mr Ripley79]

Joan Chen is my winner of supporting actress this year,what a shame she never got traction,too many comeback narratives in the actress categories and she is the least well known.

I'd just like to single out Cailee Spaney and Kirsten Dunst in Civil War and Jesse Plemons for his terrifying cameo in the same film.

Adam Pearson terrific in A Different Man

Mackenzie Davis in Speak no Evil.

[Mike in Canada]

Pouring one out tonight for the pretty-great all-supporting-actress lineup that could have been:

Monica-Jamie Lee-Aunjanue-Felicity-Isabella.

That's a smackdown-worthy lineup!

[Paranoid Android]

Supporting Actor thoughts: Just don't see Guy Pearce missing. Such a memorable (and by turns funny and alarming) turn in a movie every voter will see. Can't say the same about Maclin or Strong.

If I had to do a No Guts, No Glory, I think I'd go with Stanley Tucci -- well-liked performer who stands out among the rest of the cast in (again) a movie that every voter will have seen. My theme this year is voters are lazy and will tick down names from the same bunch of films.

[Frank Zappa]

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Wicked

Alt: Dune 2, Sing Sing, Nickel Boys

BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard
Edward Berger
Sean Baker
Brady Corbet
Coralie Fargeat

Alt: Mangold, Chu, Ross

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo
Karla Sofía Gascón
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Mikey Madison
Demi Moore

Alt: Torres, Anderson, Jolie, Kidman

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Craig
Colman Domingo
Ralph Fiennes

Alt: Stan (A Different Man), Stan (The Apprentice), Grant

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis
Ariana Grande-Butera
Felicity Jones
Isabella Rossellini
Zoe Saldaña

Alt: Barbaro, Austin, Deadwyler, Qualley, Ellis-Taylor, Gomez

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov
Kieran Culkin
Edward Norton
Guy Pearce
Jeremy Strong

Alt: Maclin, Eydelshteyn

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance

Alt: Hard Truths, Challengers, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, All We Imagine Is Light

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

Alt: The Room Next Door, Dune 2, Wicked

BEST FILM EDITING
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
Conclave
Dune 2
September 5

Alt: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Civil War, Wicked, The Substance

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune 2
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu

Alt: Maria, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune 2
Nosferatu
Wicked

Alt: The Substance, Gladiator 2, Furiosa, Emilia Pérez

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave
Dune 2
Gladiator 2
Nosferatu
Wicked

Alt: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blitz, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, Furiosa

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
A Different Man
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

Alt: The Apprentice, Dune 2, Emilia Pérez, Brando

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Better Man
Dune 2
Gladiator 2
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Alt: Alien: Romulus, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine

BEST SOUND
Alien: Romulus
A Complete Unknown
Dune 2
Emilia Pérez
Wicked

Alt: Gladiator 2, The Wild Robot, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Wild Robot

Alt: Nosferatu, Gladiator 2, The Room Next Door, Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Compress/Repress”
“El Mal”
“The Journey”
“Mi Camino”
“Never Too Late”

Alt: “Harper and Will Go West,” “Kiss the Sky,” “Sick in the Head”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Emilia Pérez
Flow
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Alt: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Alt: Moana 2

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
A Bear Named Wojtek
Yuck!
Wander to Wonder
Beautiful Men
Maybe Elephants

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Black Box Diaries
Daughters
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Will & Harper

Alt: Dahomey, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Hollywoodgatete

BEST DOC SHORT
A Swim Lesson
The Quilters
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
I Am Ready, Warden
Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
An Orange From Jaffa
Anuja
Dovecote
The Masterpiece