First Oscar Predictions: The Actors, Lead and Supporting
Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 10:53AM by Nathaniel R
Can John Turturro hold on to his Sundance buzz for "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York" © Sony Pictures Classics
Whoops. Lost some momentum there to finish the first round of Oscar predictions. Let's take on Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor...
Early buzz in this category centered around John Turturro for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Sony Pictures Classics will open the film in mid October which is generally a good time for Oscar hopefuls. Can he hold on to that early buzz or will this prove to be more of a Spirit Awards play?
Ryan Gosling proves his movie star bonafides again in PROJECT HAIL MARY © Amazon / MGM
The most intriguing possibility to emerge in the first months of 2026 (outside of festivals that is) is the ever-watchable Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. While this isn't the type of performance that generally screams "Oscar play!" there have been many examples through the years -- hell, just last year with Michael B Jordan -- of a MOVIE STAR kind of performance (rather than pure dramatics) showing up in the big race if the film itself is popular enough to perpetually remind people how reliable and gifted said star is. Of course if I controlled the world, Gosling would already have an Oscar for his unbeatable comic star turn in Barbie (2023) which runs absolute circles around Robert Downey Jr's winning performance that season and frankly most performances that year. But I do not control the world. Anyway I'm not predicting him just yet but it's fun to think about.
This year doesn't look like a strong year for previous male acting winners (though Rami Malek has some buzz for his second time playing a man with AIDS in the 1980s in the Ira Sachs drama The Man I Love) so it'll be exciting to see who emerges as a "it's finally his year!" powerhouse Best Actor nominee between enduring stars (Tom Cruise? John Malkovich? John Turturro? Matt Damon?), mid career hotties (Pedro Pascal? Adam Driver? Sebastian Stan?) or will a younger crop of less honored men rise up (Dominic Sessa? Josh O'Connor?).
Steve Buscemi in WILD HORSE NINE © Searchlight Pictures
Before you scream "why isn't Sam Rockwell here!?" please remember that I refuse to endorse Category Fraud until I am forced to. Wild Horse Nine, at least from all appearances and descriptions thus far, looks like a crystal clear case of a dual lead of the same gender film. So I've pointed the pundit laser on Steve Buscemi in the same film instead. Buscemi has never been in the conversation but he's the type of enduring character actor that the Academy loves to eventually get around to if the right film / season / role presents itself. Buscemi has been working steadily since the mid 80s and his list of classics is quite large. If the performance is more than just someone who threatens the leads over the phone in a couple of scenes, he looks like a great bet.
I would say a riskier bet along the same lines -- dependable beloved supporting player -- is John Goodman who is playing the President in Digger. We know from the past 25 years of cinema that Academy voters never ignore Inarritu movies -- even when they should -- but the big question here is will there be room for anyone besides Tom Cruise in that particular spotlight. The Supporting categories tend to clear up much later in the year (for obvious reasons) so at the moment it's mostly just hunches. What other first time nominees could we get this year? Miles Teller, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, David Oyelow, Robert Pattinson, Damian Lewis? Two probably delulu but loveable longshots are James Ortiz, the puppeteer and voice of "Rocky" in Project Hail Mary and Alexander Skarsgård (who is such a great actor but too beautiful to be recognized as such!) as the woven husband in the comic fantasy Wicker.
Antonio Banderas (not the title character) in TONY © a24
In terms of previous nominees there are several that could return: Paul Giamatti in Jessie Eisenberg's forthcoming theater comedy. The buzz is starting and voters like movies about the arts; Mark Ruffalo in Sian Heder's CODA follow up Being Heumann playing a real life political figure from the 1970s and voters love biographical performances; Antonio Banderas in a "mentor" role in Tony and voters love those in this category; Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckenberg in The Social Reckoning (it worked for Jessie Eisenberg so maybe though I'm personally dubious); Colin Firth in a villainous role in Cry To Heaven; Riz Ahmed who we'd love to see back but how large / good is his role as the President's assistant in Digger?; Christian Bale in David O' Russell's Madden; and wouldn't it be fun if Willem Dafoe was a standout in Werwulf? The acting branch really needs to embrace genre performances more often when they're worthy. Last year 50% of acting wins went to horror performances (!!!) but one year could be a fluke rather than a new openness to genre. Time will tell.
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