First Oscar Predictions: The Actors, Lead and Supporting
Sunday, June 21, 2026 at 10:53AM by Nathaniel R
Can John Turturro hold on to his Sundance buzz for "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York" © Sony Pictures Classics
Whoops. Lost some momentum there to finish the first round of Oscar predictions. Let's take on Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor...
Early buzz in this category centered around John Turturro for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. Sony Pictures Classics will open the film in mid October which is generally a good time for Oscar hopefuls. Can he hold on to that early buzz or will this prove to be more of a Spirit Awards play?
Ryan Gosling proves his movie star bonafides again in PROJECT HAIL MARY © Amazon / MGM
The most intriguing possibility to emerge in the first months of 2026 (outside of festivals that is) is the ever-watchable Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. While this isn't the type of performance that generally screams "Oscar play!" there have been many examples through the years -- hell, just last year with Michael B Jordan -- of a MOVIE STAR kind of performance (rather than pure dramatics) showing up in the big race if the film itself is popular enough to perpetually remind people how reliable and gifted said star is. Of course if I controlled the world, Gosling would already have an Oscar for his unbeatable comic star turn in Barbie (2023) which runs absolute circles around Robert Downey Jr's winning performance that season and frankly most performances that year. But I do not control the world. Anyway I'm not predicting him just yet but it's fun to think about.
This year doesn't look like a strong year for previous male acting winners (though Rami Malek has some buzz for his second time playing a man with AIDS in the 1980s in the Ira Sachs drama The Man I Love) so it'll be exciting to see who emerges as a "it's finally his year!" powerhouse Best Actor nominee between enduring stars (Tom Cruise? John Malkovich? John Turturro? Matt Damon?), mid career hotties (Pedro Pascal? Adam Driver? Sebastian Stan?) or will a younger crop of less honored men rise up (Dominic Sessa? Josh O'Connor?).
Steve Buscemi in WILD HORSE NINE © Searchlight Pictures
Before you scream "why isn't Sam Rockwell here!?" please remember that I refuse to endorse Category Fraud until I am forced to. Wild Horse Nine, at least from all appearances and descriptions thus far, looks like a crystal clear case of a dual lead of the same gender film. So I've pointed the pundit laser on Steve Buscemi in the same film instead. Buscemi has never been in the conversation but he's the type of enduring character actor that the Academy loves to eventually get around to if the right film / season / role presents itself. Buscemi has been working steadily since the mid 80s and his list of classics is quite large. If the performance is more than just someone who threatens the leads over the phone in a couple of scenes, he looks like a great bet.
I would say a riskier bet along the same lines -- dependable beloved supporting player -- is John Goodman who is playing the President in Digger. We know from the past 25 years of cinema that Academy voters never ignore Inarritu movies -- even when they should -- but the big question here is will there be room for anyone besides Tom Cruise in that particular spotlight. The Supporting categories tend to clear up much later in the year (for obvious reasons) so at the moment it's mostly just hunches. What other first time nominees could we get this year? Miles Teller, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, David Oyelow, Robert Pattinson, Damian Lewis? Two probably delulu but loveable longshots are James Ortiz, the puppeteer and voice of "Rocky" in Project Hail Mary and Alexander Skarsgård (who is such a great actor but too beautiful to be recognized as such!) as the woven husband in the comic fantasy Wicker.
Antonio Banderas (not the title character) in TONY © a24
In terms of previous nominees there are several that could return: Paul Giamatti in Jessie Eisenberg's forthcoming theater comedy. The buzz is starting and voters like movies about the arts; Mark Ruffalo in Sian Heder's CODA follow up Being Heumann playing a real life political figure from the 1970s and voters love biographical performances; Antonio Banderas in a "mentor" role in Tony and voters love those in this category; Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckenberg in The Social Reckoning (it worked for Jessie Eisenberg so maybe though I'm personally dubious); Colin Firth in a villainous role in Cry To Heaven; Riz Ahmed who we'd love to see back but how large / good is his role as the President's assistant in Digger?; Christian Bale in David O' Russell's Madden; and wouldn't it be fun if Willem Dafoe was a standout in Werwulf? The acting branch really needs to embrace genre performances more often when they're worthy. Last year 50% of acting wins went to horror performances (!!!) but one year could be a fluke rather than a new openness to genre. Time will tell.
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Reader Comments (18)
Steve Buscemi waa definitely in the conversation for Ghost World, even if he was a bit of a longshot.
I always forget that David Oyelowo wasnt nominated for Selma - even though its lack of nominations was a huge narrative that year.
If Ruffalo gets in, he has to win, right? He's approaching legendary loser status.
I had always assumed that Steve Buscemi had at least gotten buzz or traction for Fargo, but I was too young at the time to really remember and Macy did campaign fraudulently IMHO.
Anyway, thanks for posting these predictions, Nathaniel. I hadn't thought about Gosling as a threat but now that you mention the correlation with MBJ — not to mention the huge box office success PHM was — I can see him happening.
It'd be a great comeback for Buscemi but we know that someones going to commit fraud and it's likely Rockwell,let's hope they double dip as they can very often do.
Goodman is a scene stealer in Digger and he's waited too long to be recognised.
Giamatti this far out seems like a winner.
Nic Cage could be on the comeback trailer for Madden unless he's a lead.
I don't think Cry to Heaven will debut this year.
Strong can be either really great or do too much thesping and become tiresome.
Does anyone believe The Odyssey is going to get acting nods,the acting looks ropey to say the least.
Ppaer Tiger isn't happening,it only got lukewarm notices.
Gosling is probably getting a Matt Damon in The Martian nomination,charming in a big hit but hardly earth shattering acting work.
It is Cruise's to lose this far out.
Turturro another 90's fave who has waited too long to be recognised
Pascal I couldn't care less about.
Malkovich may go supporting and he's overdue for a win but so are Goodman,Turturro,Ruffalo,Dafoe,Damon,Gosling,Cruise and Giamatti.
Ippolito seems like the newbie who gets in for playing Sly,depends how the film goes across,a real wildcard but it is about a beloved Oscar winning classic.
Fjord not happening though Stan was deserving for his Trump role this isn't that.
Malek I am always skeptical about.
I would argue that 2025 BAFTA Best Actor winner Robert Aramayo is a strong contender for an Oscar now that the British bio pic I Swear has released here. The film is wildly entertaining and Aramayo gives an astonishing performance as a man struggling with Tourette’s syndrome in an era when the affliction was not understood.
Looking forward to the home stretch.
Just a correction note: LaKeith Stanfield is a past nominee.
...and Ian McKellan.
Nat, always super fun to watch you gaze into your crystal ball.
Agreed one zillion percent about Gosling's performance in Barbie. Miles ahead of Downey and pretty much everyone...kind of an iconic and perfect piece of comic acting for the ages. It's absurd that he didn't win. And his movie star acting in Hail Mary couldn't be better.
I would personally love to see Mark Ruffalo or Willem Dafoe win (both were also better in Poor Things than Downey was that year!). Their films could really go either way though!
Would also love to see Riz Ahmed back in the game. Or Buscemi! I have heard from some early folks who have seen Wild Horse Nine that it has a great performance by Malkovich.
Early buzz is always tricky—John Turturro's got that Sundance heat, but October releases can fade by January if the film doesn't stick. Just the false sun. I'm curious to see if any late-breakers or festival surprises shake up this category before nominations.just the false sun
Sir Ian McKellen in The Christophers (how soon they forget)
I’m willing to extend consideration to work done in comedies, popular movies, genre movies, movies directed by women, etc.
Lead Actor:
Ryan Gosling: Project Hail Mary
Jacob Elordi: Dog Stars
Tom Holland: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Alden Ehrenreich: Switzerland (2027?)
Andrew Scott: Elsinore (2027?)
Ralph Fiennes: 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
Jeffrey Wright: The Death of a Salesman
Ryunosuke Kamiki: Godzilla Minus Zero
Adam Driver: Paper Tiger
Josh O’Connor: Jack of Spades
Chiwetel Ejiofor: Backrooms
Ian McKellen: The Christophers
Dylan O’Brien: Send Help
Supporting Actors:
Edward Norton: The Invite
Andrew Scott: A Place in Hell
Jason Momoa: Dune 3
Vincent Lindon: Couture
Art Malik: Hamlet
Wes Studi: Long Haul
Benedict Wong: Dog Stars
Samuel L. Jackson: The Great Beyond
Ralph Ineson: Werwulf
Tim Roth: Peaky Blinders
Damian Lewis: Jack of Spades
Dream scenario - honorary Oscar winner Glenn Close is on stage to introduce John Malkovich during the best actor presentation (assuming they keep this format) months after he introduced her at the Governors Awards ceremony, and then he wins, and they're both happy ever after
Love idea of the 3 Big Lebowski guys getting their first oscar nominations
Oh, you can tell Warner Bros. Discovery is going to make a hard push for Tom Cruise this year...
I assume the description for Channing Tatum in lead was meant to be for Jafaar Jackson? Also I'm pretty sure Tatum is supporting in Josephine.
Turturro and Buscemi?!! Be still my heart.
Any chance for one of the actors from 'The Black Ball' to be nominated? Guitarricadelafuente seems the most likely to me based off of Cannes reactions.
Strong, Giamatti and Gosling probably are safe bets.
Buscemi, Goodman and Turturro have been snubbed for decades.
It seems unbelievable these three never were nominated.
It's a real shame!