The Annual GG + SAG ≠ Oscar Conundrum

We've learned time and time again that precursor awards are not infallible barometers of what is to come with Oscar. Each year some actor or two manages the magic combo of a Globe and SAG Nomination but doesn't quite make it to Oscar's shortlisting. Previous examples include Leonardo DiCaprio in J Edgar, Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin, Maria Bello in The Cooler, Russell Crowe in Cinderella Man, Mila Kunis in Black Swan and so on...

Who do you think will meet the same finish-line stumble fate this year? 

poll by twiigs.com

Globe Nomination Announcement

The Globe Nominations were announced bright and early... I followed on CNN the only live stream that seemed to be working. They began with the credits for their 70th anniversary and a weird applause break (without initial applause) for Cecil B DeMille Tribute winner Jodie Foster. After that the first Mr Golden Globe was revealed (Sam Fox, son of the Michael J Foxes) along with our usual Miss Golden Globe (this time that's Francesca Eastwood, daughter of Clint & Francesca)

Megan Fox started us the announcements but Jessica Alba also joined in.

BEST SONG
For You -Act of Valor (Keith Urban)
Not Running Anymore - Stand Up Guys (Jon Bon Jovi)
Safe and Sound - The Hunger Games (Taylor Swift) *not eligible for Oscar consideration*
Skyfall - Skyfall (Adele)
Suddenly -Les Misérables (performed by Hugh Jackman)

Best Song is a tough category to predict for Oscar but Globes always go for the stars so they obviously want Adele, Taylor Swift and the rest to attend. They're tripling down to make sure Nicole Kidman and her man are there with 2 nominations for Nicki and one for Keith.

BEST SCORE
Life of Pi
Argo
Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Lincoln 

Mychael Danna has never had any luck with Oscar but will Life of Pi change that? The music is pretty noticeable and that usually helps. I've noticed a lot of online fandom for the Cloud Atlas score. Is that merely a case of the score being such a central part of the plot and the main theme being repeated like crazy? And is it just me or is Alexandre Desplat's score for Argo actually the weakest of his 18 scores this year? I'd much prefer to have seen him nominated for Moonrise Kingdom , Zero Dark Thirty or Rust & Bone or one of the 13 others. Of this batch of nominees, I think it's safe to say that I'm all about Anna Karenina. 

SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Argo 

The Globes don't differentiate between adapted and original and so their nominee list usually swings prestige which means adapted (for reasons I've never quite fathomed because original screenplays are where it's at baby, year in and year out... well maybe not this year but whatever). Only DJANGO from their nominee pool here is the usual type of original, while Zero Dark Thirty (which feels like an adapted because of the true story and research factor) can also qualify.

FOREIGN FILM
Amour - Austria
A Royal Affair - Denmark
Intouchables - France
Kon Tiki - Norway
Rust & Bone - France *not eligible for Oscar consideration in their correlative category*

Three French language films and two Scandinavian films for the Globes this year. They kept it regional. 

ANIMATED FILM
Brave
Frankenweenie
Hotel Transylvania
Rise of Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph

LOTS MORE AFTER THE JUMP

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SAG Nominations: Bless Them For 'Charlotte Bless'

The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations, now in their 19th year, are often a bipolar experience to read through. I'm annually enraged by the rules dictacting who receives a nomination when an ensemble nomination happens, but generally speaking there tends to one thing worth being super-thrilled about in the mix beyond all the sleep-inducing reiterations of every Oscar pundit's list.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat - “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln - "LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES / Mark - "THE SESSIONS" (Fox Searchlight)
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean - "LES MISÉRABLES" (Universal Pictures)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker - "FLIGHT" (Paramount Pictures)

In with Bradley Cooper. Out with Joaquin Phoenix? The Master enters the Oscar nomination period looking shakier than ever. We could see a complete shut out or 4 or 5 nominations for the handsome, well acted but ultimately not too accessible film. It might just be the year's biggest wild card at this point.

It's worth noting that people often emphatically exaggerate the meaning of "snubs". For all we know Phoenix's no show here was a matter of one vote, rather than anything to do with the movie (though it probably isn't well enough loved) or his feelings about awards campaigns. MORE...

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"Critics Choice" Nominations Full List

My last minute super-campaigning for Perks of a Wallflower's Logan Lerman in Young Actor (at least) appears to have paid off though my other pleas did not. Nicole Kidman's remarkable transformation in The Paperboy continues to be ignored in the rush to give all prizes to the same 12 movies so this is hardly a surprise though still disappointing. But the most gob-smacking, head-scratching utterly-embarrassing ommission has to be Michael Fassbender missing out on a nomination for  Prometheus as Actor in an Action Movie. It's the laziest star-fuckingest balloting ever by BFCA members -- none of whom should ever say a bad word about the Globes' tendency to do this in their columns ever again. They chose Bale as Batman and Downey Jr as Iron Man reheated do-overs of performance that were only great once or twice seven-ish years ago and they chose them while F***ing Fassbender was just off to the left mercilessly/scientifically wreaking havoc on humans while obsessing over Lawrence of Arabia. My fellow voters, I am sad to say, seem utterly without taste or at least are lost without the barometer of Oscar buzz to guide them; I don't know if you know this but The Academy Awards has no correlative Best Actor in an Action Movie category.

To cheer up myself up I'll just think about Annie and the 11 nominations for Les Miz.

She wore leg-bondage gear to the Les Miz premiere here in NYC! Speaking of Annie... I'd type up reactions to each Critics Choice race but for the fact that I'm due at a luncheon with the cast of Les Misérables right now. Obviously Anne & Hugh win the war of 'how should i spend my next couple of hours?' but more later today...

BFCA "CRITICS CHOICE" NOMINATIONS

Best Picture 
Argo  (7 nominations)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (3 nominations)
Django Unchained (2 nominations)
Life of Pi (9 nominations)
Lincoln (13 nominations)
The Master (7 nominations)
Les Miserables (11 nominations)
Moonrise Kingdom (5 nominations)
Silver Linings Playbook (10 nominations)
Zero Dark Thirty (5 nominations)

FULL LIST OF NOMINEES AFTER THE JUMP

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LAFCA Names "Amour" The Best of the Year. (Plus Boston & NYFCO)

Warning this post will contain no photos of Zero Dark Thirty in protest. It's a film I thoroughly enjoyed but critical sweeps do great injustice to the art of cinema each year. No film or performance has ever been so great as to be the only achievement worth rewarding in its calendar year. The modern age of hive-mindedness also does great injustice to awards season which needs drama as fuel. This is not to say that one shouldn't vote one's mind if a certain sweeper is also your personal favorite but if everyone's personal favorites are always the same we automatically a) need fewer groups trumpeting the collective opinion or b) we need more critics who have idiosyncratic taste to keep the art of the discussion of cinema at its liveliest.

LOS ANGELES
We've already heard from NYC's top critics who gave three awards each to Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln and today the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the LA wing of critical-consensus makers get their say. Given that this particular group is something like the Home Team for the bulk of AMPAS members, their votes matter. Stay tuned as voting commences!

FILM Amour (ru: The Master)
DIRECTOR Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master (ru: Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty)
ACTRESS (tie) Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook and Emmanuelle Riva Amour 
ACTOR  Joaquin Phoenix The Master (ru: Denis Lavant, Holy Motors)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS  Amy Adams, The Master (ru: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables & The Dark Knight Rises)
SUPPORTING ACTOR  Dwight Henry Beasts of the Southern Wild (ru: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained)
ANIMATED FILM  Frankenweenie (ru: It's Such a Beautiful Day)
DOCUMENTARY The Gatekeepers (ru: Searching for Sugar Man)
FOREIGN FILM  tba tba
NEW GENERATION  tba tba
SCREENPLAY Argo (ru: Silver Linings Playbook)
CINEMATOGRAPHY  Roger Deakins Skyfall (ru: Mihai Malaiare, Jr. The Master)
PRODUCTION DESIGN  David Crank & Jack Fisk The Master (ru: Adam Stockhausen, Moonrise Kingdom)
EDITING Zero Dark Thirty
INDEPENDENT/EXPERIMENTAL Leviathan 
MUSIC SCORE  Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the Southern Wild (ru: Jonny Greenwood, The Master)

Last Year's LAFCA Winners if you'd like to compare them...

Boston & NYFCO after the jump

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