Oscar Prediction Charts: Three questions about Best Supporting Actor

by Nathaniel R

We're not predicting Richard E Grant Oscar buzz for the drag musical Everybody's Talking About Jamie but we're sharing his picture because we're in this kind of cheerful mood and because he was ROBBED in his Oscar year and we've been fans for as long as we can remember. Wasn't he fun on Loki this month? 

The supporting categories at the Oscars are always hard to read this early. Supporting roles are rarely the focus of pre-release buzz. What's more they can have a tough time finding awards love since leading movie stars have a super gross and predictable way of constantly crashing the party for those lower on the call sheet (last year's "supporting" race arguably had just one 100% no debate supporting player). So we threw one lead into the predictions (Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog) but it's more than likely that some other lead will be pitched here, too. We don't care to guess about who that will be right now. For first attempt at predicting nominations in this category for 2021 we're saying...

Click to read more ...

Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and more...

Jane Campion's new film Power of the Dog has been named the Centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. Perhaps it's wishful thinking (we've loved Campion forever) but we're betting big on it for the Oscar race. The film is set in 1920s rural Montana and stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons as brothers who are at odds. The rift between them grows wider once the younger brother brings a new wife (Kirsten Dunst) home. The novel by Thomas Savage has been compared to works like East of Eden and Brokeback Mountain and if the film can live up to either of those classics' screen adaptations it will be something special.

We've been working hard on the first Oscar charts of the year.  The four acting categories and international film have yet to be posted, but the rest of the charts are now up...

• PICTURE - Will streamers like Netflix or Amazon prevail or will more traditional distributors like MGM/UA, Searchlight, Focus, A24, and SPC rise up? So many films sound exciting but we won't know which deliver on their promise until later in the year.  
• DIRECTOR - Jane Campion could become the first woman ever nominated twice in Best Director
• SCREENPLAYS  - Numerous brilliant writers have new films coming but however will they choose between Asghar Farhadi, Joel Coen, Tony Kushner, Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Mills, and Paul Thomas Anderson?
• VISUAL CATEGORIES - There's (presumably) eye candy aplenty in Dune, Last Night in Soho, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley
• SOUND CATEGORIES - Can it finally be Nicholas Britell's year or will he split his support with three movies (Carmen, Don't Look Up, Cruella)?
• ANIMATED FEATURE - Will Disney's musical Encanto be the frontrunner? Will Flee and Belle be the more adventurous citations?
• PREDICTION INDEX - the overview snapshot

Oscar Predictions: Who will compete for Costume Design and Cinematography?

by Nathaniel R

"Cyrano" with Peter Dinklage was a hit Off Broadway. Will this musical version transfer well to the screen?

By now you've gotten a sense from the predictions for most of the craft categories which films we think Oscar voters might be fond of come January when they're voting on nominations. Now let's talk more in depth about two of our favourite races to keep eagle eyes on each year: Costumes and Cinematography.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Of Oscar's four favourite living costume designers --  Sandy Powell (15 nominations and 3 wins), Colleen Atwood (12/4), Jenny Beavan (10/2), Milena Canonero (9/4), and Jenny Beavan (10/2) -- only Colleen Atwood is sitting out this cinematic year...

Click to read more ...

Oscar Predictions: Visuals, Score, Animation, and Sound

by Nathaniel R

The Oscar charts are finally going up. Best Animated Feature was the first a month ago but it's been tweaked to reflect Belle, rising, post its special Cannes screening, as well as Disney's stingy release of Luca. We're saving Cinematography and Costume Design for their own posts tomorrow but for now the rest of the Visual charts as well as Score and Sound are up. Yes, we're predicting a strong showing for House of Gucci, Dune, and Eternals in craft categories. Take a look and sound off in the comments. 

Yes, we're working on the Oscar charts...

For those of you who have been asking. Yes, the Oscar charts will go up soon with first predictions of the year. I'll confess right up front that this year is mighty confusing. That's partially because we're still in pandemic mode and a lot of the big studios are playing it coy about release dates and there are surely numerous sales still to happen. One assumes the studios are all watching each week's box office reports and other much more vague indicators (like streaming numbers which are rarely public and always unverifiable even when they are) to decide on the best way forward in this tough time for the industry. 

Another reason this year feels confusing is that A24 has a truckload of promising films but very few with actual release dates (and they've been known to really only focus on one once things heat up). Meanwhile MGM/UA, not usually a big player, has multiple promising titles...

Click to read more ...