Naked Gold Man: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Competitive Season
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 10:39PM 
I wish there were festive holiday songs for Oscar junkies. "It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Steamroll", "All I Want for Oscars is You", "Let it Snub, Let it Snub, Let it Snub", "God Rest Ye Merry Shortlisters", "Do You Vote How I Vote" etcetera.... The mood is definitely upon us!
This weekend while LA, NY online, and Boston were handing out their prizes and BFCA voters were mailing in their ballots a certain movie that few had yet seen was screening for Oscar voters and it's likely to be a big deal (though whether it will make the BFCA due to the voting deadline today, remains to be seen). Let's just say that I heard sniffling and whispered "wows" during the credits at the guild screening here in NYC.
The AFI's TOP TEN LIST was also released this weekend. It went like so...
- Bridesmaids
- The Descendants
- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
- The Help
- Hugo
- J. Edgar
- Midnight in Paris
- Moneyball
- The Tree of Life
- War Horse
It reads like an odd experiment in Oscar predicting from two months back before people had seen all the films (plus Bridesmaids. The AFI always includes at least one populist hit to represent the film year).
But bringing us back to the now, it's time for a chart update to reflect all of this madness.
These past couple of weeks have definitely proven to us that The Tree of Life has not been forgotten, that The Help is in a good place (The actors branch is large and we suspect they like it) that Thanksgiving is a very smart holiday to start your heavy Oscar campaigning (See: Hugo, The Descendants, My Week With Marilyn and The Artist). We're not aloud to talk about the three last films to arrive (War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud) but let's just say when it comes to Oscar, I'm bearish on the first two and bullish on the last having now seen all three. I'm also pleased to note that Moneyball is well liked. At an Oscar dinner I attended for Rango recently, it was the consensus favorite of my table.
Strangely the film that hasn't been coming up in conversation that much is Midnight in Paris but I blame this on the emergence of so many new films all at once. Moneyball doesn't always come up organically in conversation but when it does it's, in my experience, usually "oh, I love that." It's the job of the new films arriving to wow voters and erase memories of early favorites. It's the job of the early arrivals to remind voters how much they loved them in the first place; that's the push forward and the pull back.
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Reader Comments (30)
I'm wondering how Christopher Plummer can just happen like this. I've seen both you and Tapley suggest he's a likely winner, which would be wonderful. But it's a subtle performance in a small movie unlikely to get other nominations, and I can't believe he's hung around in the conversation this long. I was sure he'd get forgotten. What gives this kind of performance such clear longevity so early on? Did no other reasonable competition materialize? I hope he wins, I just have trouble wrapping my head around the fact that he even could.
I'm hoping that Oscar voters will watch Beginners for Plummer and start nominating the movie in other categories like screenplay.
Though the critics like Tree of Life, I'm not sure if it will be recognized too much by the Academy.
Though the critics like Tree of Life, I'm not sure if it will be recognized too much by the Academy.
@Gabriel Oak: Watched it last night and I found it incredibly slow... had much more expectations on it. But I'm pretty sure it will get a not, probably more than one... Finger crossed for Brad Pitt.
*nod
"It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Steamroll", "All I Want for Oscars is You", "Let it Snub, Let it Snub, Let it Snub", "God Rest Ye Merry Shortlisters", "Do You Vote How I Vote"
LOL you're brilliant.
I also believe that if the race goes Michelle vs. Meryl or Marilyn vs. Margaret (you name it) then Viola has a huge break.
I'm really sorry for Glenn Close and for Mia Wasikowska who no one seems to remember.
Mike -- that's the power of overdue.... once "it's time" gets in the air it can have real power. I know Michael was just arguing that this is an overvalued assett, but in some cases it's the minor jostling that starts the avalanche.
but yes i was surprised too that ti just stuck like that from this summer onward since the film was so small. I love the film but it didn't exactly set the world on fire in release.
I hate to be "that guy" but with regards to your trivia note for the Best Actress performance to oscar nod wins I would say Harold Russell probably has the edge. 3 film performances, 2 Oscars, even discounting the special awards that's still 33% which is a heck of an achievement.
Nathaniel...what are your definitions for "bearish" and "bullish?"
Jessica Chastain will end up splitting her votes, I think, and be snubbed. None of the critics groups want to take a stand on one of her performances, which has become rather detrimental to her moving forward.
BJT -- good point. I'll put another little note under supporting actor.
"We're not aloud.."
Freudian slip? :p
And can I share a pathetic thought? I kinda don't want to see Theron getting nominated because then Winslet might not get nominated for Labor Day since, you know, how many Reitman leads can get a nod? (Page, Clooney, Theron)
I told you it was a pathetic thought :p
Cannot accept the fact that Close is out of games, or at least so it seems.
I've loved her from the first time I saw her in The House of Spirits... her Ferula was IMO the best character potrayed in that unconvincing movie.
But at this point is clear that the race for best actress is Davis vs Streep vs Williams... and if is true, as I believe, that Streep's supporters are solid... Davis and Williams will split their votes and La Streep will receive her well deserved and overdue 3rd Oscar. And I hope so somewhat.
Minor note, but Scorsese's NBR win isn't on the chart.
The volume on Streep is picking up....every article...she is everywhere...and Iron Lady has not even opened yet! I think her buzz may be enough to have Davis and Williams split the vote in her favor.If she loses again....I think it would be embarassing for the Academy.
I know the category generally skews older, but I can't imagine a Best Supporting Actor lineup wherein Kenneth Branagh (50) is the youngest nominee...
I think that if Jessica Chastain can get a Golden Globe nomination, Academy voters will have one to vote for. Otherwise, it's a very real chance that she won't make it in. I think Take Shelter actually seems like her best bet at this point, especially since Michael Shannon is looking really strong right now.
"If she loses again....I think it would be embarassing for the Academy."
That shipped sailed when Sandra Bullock beat her two years ago. If she loses this year to Michelle Williams or Viola Davis, it'll be unfortunate, but at least the winner will still be worthy. I'd be ecstatic if any of these ladies win (also Tilda Swinton).
So Nathan, if I read your bearish/bullish metaphor correctly, do you truly feel War Horse is losing steam?
The Academy cares about momentum, but they don't care about being embarassed. I still think that the momentum is a Davis vs. Streep race-I feel like Williams is a lock for a nomination, but does anyone really think she'll be able to take down the other two in a film that will maybe pick up 1-2 additional nominations if it's lucky? Plus, we're not talking about someone gregarious who can work interviews/the red carpet like a pro in a way that Winslet or Bullock or Mirren can. Williams is a talented actor, but she's not a very good celebrity, and to win an Oscar for Best Actress, you typically have to be both.
I agree with Alex on Chastain-if someone (either the BFCA or the Globes on Thursday) manage to cite her for a specific role, it will steamroll through. Otherwise, she's out. And I think, considering that Redgrave/Spencer/Woodley have a strangehold on the nominations, this is where Melissa McCarthy would be able to sneak in-if there's only one "open" slot, I don't see her making it, but if there's two wild card slots, I could see her being the fifth nominee.
The Christopher Plummer thing is mystifying to me, as is that category in general (sorry, the Branagh hype I just don't see). I keep thinking that there's some contender that's going to get a Globe/SAG/Oscar nod that doesn't seem "locked" yet (Hill or Nolte or Hawkes seem most likely).
I saw beginners,plummer was good but oscar worthy not here maybe in 99 for the insider,this is a career cap,the rest of the movie was so s l o w and mcgregor should stick to lightsabers and wooing kidman.
Matt -- i do. maybe it's because the few Oscar voters I've talked to about it were less than impressed -- i'm sure there are others who love it but i'm also sure it's not a film that will have anything like consensus love.
i'm currently thinking it's a four way race for the best picture win.
Ignore me and answer Matt...I see how it is lol. Don't care about War Horse. I want to know what Dragon Tattoo's chances are!
p.s. they should have stuck with the ten nominee system. This whole "more than 5, less than 10" thing is silly.
Recently saw The Artist. Enjoyable, quality filmmaking. But charming does not a Best Picture make. It's something of a trifle, too thin/dependent on nostalgia to be worthy of the big prize.
TONY -- i would be very very surprised to see DRAGON TATTOO in best picture when there are 10 other options available to them that A) already have traction of some sort (the ten listed o nthe chart) and B) all of those are more typical in terms of Oscar pleasures or reasons for awarding.
Yay! Vanessa Redgrave wins in San Francisco!!!
Nathaniel -- What have you been hearing about "In the Land of Blood and Honey"?
@ John T...I disagree about Williams. I do think she has a good shot at winning and even though she isn't a celebrity personality in the way that recent best actress winners like Sandra Bullock and Reese Witherspoon are, she is very respected by the Academy and I think the film will screen better for the Academy than it has for critics...I expect not only a best actress nomination, but best supporting actor for Branagh and maybe even a costume nod if it's lucky. I don't see Iron Lady pulling off more than Actress and Makeup.
Nathaniel, does Zoe Caldwell have any shot at a nomination for Extremely Loud?
Katie -- she's in very very little of the movie.
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