Oscar Prediction Updates & Calendar
Friday, January 6, 2012 at 8:23PM 
As someone who is absolutely not feeling it today -- why do some days torment us, so? -- I thought I'd best *finally* finish updating the Oscar predictions. So I'm working on it. As ever I'm sure you'll tell me exactly where I'm right and wrong.
Even though I'm not technically feeling it today, I am most definitely feeling it in terms of the Oscars this year. It's SO exciting for once. Lots of confusion in each category I think. Just the way we like it. If predictions aren't difficult, they aren't fun.
Picture I'm guessing 8 nominees though I think Moneyball is stronger and War Horse weaker than my chart suggests. Though perhaps this is wishful thinking?
Director If Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen and Steven Spielberg are all nominated here, that would be madness. I need to do the statistics but I am pretty sure that that would be the most previously nominated group ever assembled in Best Director since they're the 3 most nominated living / working directors. But as of this writing I don't think Spielberg is in.
Actress Tilda and Glenn aren't invulnerable for very different reasons. Rooney Mara was surging while ballots went out but it's not really an Oscar type role so who knows? And then there's still Charlize (just interviewed) sneering at all of them in her Hello Kitty shirt. Everyone else is toast.
Actor I'm taking a risk because I keep hearing Michael Shannon's name even though his movie is basically gone. But then so is Leo's.
Shannon got one nomination by surprise. Can he pull off surprise #2?
Supporting Actress I still think this category is VERY difficult to predict. Someone with a lot of precursor attention isn't going to make it. People always say it's easy to predict this one until you remind them that six women have won plentiful precursor attention. Six ≠ Five.
Supporting Actor totally diffuse if you ask me beyond the Branagh-Plummer-Brooks triangle. Wouldn't it be a hoot if Corey Stoll or Viggo Mortensen made it in?
Screenplay Original is still super crowded and impossible to figure with at least five major contenders ineligible for the recent Writer's Guild noms. Adapted is easier but not completely simple.
CALENDAR FUN!
Today, I got the hugest package in the mail. I mean it was enormous. And this thin calendar to your right was all that was inside. HA! Here's to killing trees for nothing! But it did immediately remind me that I need to nail down my calendar for 2012. I want it to be the best year ever here at The Film Experience. I really do. The Bext Exotic Marigold Hotel promisese to open on May 4th. In worse news, The Wettest Country has been moved back AGAIN. Now they're saying August. Let's face it: that movie is never going to open. If both do open as intended who knows. Oscar 2012? The Help, The Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris, all summer releases, are still in play for 2011's race.
Here's some dates you should know about as we move forward into our busiest month.
JANUARY DATES
- Sat. 7th National Society of Film Critics... ending critic prizes.
- Mon. 9th Directors Guild Nominations ... which was once the most accurate predictor of anything-ever as to what would be Best Picture nominated. The last few years have made those statistics useless with all the changes as to # of nominees.
- Thur. 12th BFCA "CRITICS CHOICE" AWARDS (yes, we'll live blog or something)
- Fri. 13th Oscar Ballots due. Nothing on this day or forward can affect who gets nominated.
- Sat. 14th LAFCA Awards Ceremony (not televised)
- Sun. 15th GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (yes, we'll live blog or something)
- Mon. 16th ACE Eddie Award Nominations (Editing) and we'll do Oscar chart updates .
- Wed. 18th BAFTA nominations - not the fake ones.
- Thurs. 19th Costume Designers Guild Nominations
- Sat. 21st Producers Guild Award Ceremony (not televised)
- Sun. 22nd FOLLIES closes on Broadway... heading to Los Angeles but without Bernadette Peters. *sniffle* Do not miss it! Oh and also this is the day when we'll post our final predictions for nominations in all Oscar categories.
- Tues. 24th OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED
- Sun. 29th SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS (Yes, we'll live blog or something)
What are you looking forward to?
Oscar Prediction comments?
Reader Comments (40)
I like your positioning of Streep in Lead Actress. Not convinced Glenn Close win make the cut.
I think your right to include Michael Shannon in Lead Actor.
I sure hope Shailene Woodley and Carey Mulligan get nods in Supporting as both were outstanding.
I see all categories as really, really wide open this year.
I would love love love Shannon to get in, but i think it won't happen. I would also love that Nolte somehow wins Oscar, but he could end up without nomination.
Meryl seems strong, i was hoping Williams will win, but now i'm starting to lose hope. And it was sad seeing Redgrave on 7th spot when few weeks ago she was on first...
I'm so happy you are predicting Melissa McCarthy finally. You are are officially my favorite Nate. Feinberg,Tapley etc don't have nothing on you! :D
also, I think predicting Michael Shannon is smart as well. People LOVE Take Shelter and J Edgar? Not so much.
I think the issue for Redgrave is simply that no one can see it-yes, there are screeners, but it is hard to feel bad for her. Harvey should have known better.
I think Shannon will make it in, too. Curiously, despite the BAFTA snub I still think Redgrave could find herself in. Never distrust the Weinstein's ability to get a legend nominated.
Glenn Close, however, seems to remind me of Robert Duvall in "Get Low".
I love how wide open these races are! But I'm always excited about nominations, every year.
What I'm hoping is that races for the wins stay so wide open. Even if the Globes and SAG agree on the supporting awards (which are still both up in the air to some extent, particularly supporting actress), I'm really hoping that somehow in Actor or Actress all three of the respective frontrunners win awards between Globes and SAG. It's totally possible, and would be make their Oscar race pretty exciting. We haven't had a true nailbiter since Rourke vs. Penn.
I think you are waaaaay underestimating Tate Taylor's chances.
The director's branch does tend to go slightly more highbrow than picture noms, but The Help has been sweeping the guilds so far and it's likely to continue with a DGA nod.
Taylor less likely than McQueen, Daldry, Farhadi, Alfredson, Eastwood, Clooney, CRONENBERG, and ALMODOVAR?? Come on. '10 Tom Hooper, '08 Ron Howard, Daldry x3 etc. would support me I think.
(Hey, you asked for it in your last sentence of the first paragraph)
I think you are waaaaay underestimating Tate Taylor's chances.
The director's branch does tend to go slightly more highbrow than picture noms, but The Help has been sweeping the guilds so far and it's likely to continue with a DGA nod.
Taylor less likely than McQueen, Daldry, Farhadi, Alfredson, Eastwood, Clooney, CRONENBERG, and ALMODOVAR?? Come on. '10 Tom Hooper, '08 Ron Howard, Daldry x3 etc. would support me I think.
(Hey, you asked for it in your last sentence of the first paragraph)
Nat- Wettest County is looking like a Venice showing. So that's good news :) If there's awards potential in it, Harvey is going to milk that baby for all it's worth. Tom Hardy, Oscar 2013 here we goooooooo!
I agree with your analysis of Best Actress. It all comes down to who has the most heat these next few weeks to secure that final fifth slot. I think Tilda has the 4th slot locked away. She has gotten all the precursor nominations, has immense respect within the industry, and has gotten rave reviews so I think the only thing that would stop her from getting nominated is if people are too turned off by the subject matter. But I think she's safe. Close is falling... fast. It comes down to Charlize and Rooney, both of which are in hugely divisive films. Mara has the upper-hand at the moment, only because she's on the cover of every magazine from here to China and the film is still rolling out. She hasn't peaked. But Charlize is Charlize freakin' Theron- and besides the rave reviews and BFCA/GG/NBR runner-up awards, she has many many pals in the Academy. So, it's hard to predict. They both have things going for them. Ultimately, I would like to see Charlize nominated so hopefully she can pull out all the stops these next few weeks while voters are filling out their ballots. She should just show up on their doorsteps in slinky attire with cupcakes ;) Haha. Here's what I'm predicting: 1) Williams 2) Streep 3) Davis 4) Swinton 5) Theron
Williams has swept the precursors so she's my favorite to win but now Davis is on the cover of EW labelled as a "frontrunner" and Meryl is (very strategically) on the cover of Vogue this month... so who knows. Starting to get bored with these predictions... I wish there were more risky roles involved (or were considered locks).
Love the predictions (although I am still not quite on board with McCarthy, as I think that category is very unstable). This has been one of the most exciting Oscar races in years with the chance of many exciting surprises, although my fear is that we may be let down with a bunch of safe, typical nominees (Spielberg, Tate Taylor and a plethora of nominations for The Help, etc.) in such a divisive year where there is no consensus favorite in any category (with the exception of Plummer in best supporting actor).
I am also predicting Corey Stoll in Midnight in Paris and I'm glad you see him as a possibility. I'm hoping for a Michael Shannon/Revolutionary Road surprise with him...and speaking of Shannon, I could definitely see it happening although I also think there's a large possibility that Gary Oldman will sneak in with the British vote (considering that Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has made a very good showing with BAFTA so far). Maybe I'm being a bit too delusional for my own good, but I am predicting a DiCaprio/Close snub. How many friends do they really have in the Academy (I'm sure a lot), but are they really going to vote for them over more exciting performances in such a strong year for both best actor and best actress? And I am sticking to my guns and predicting a best supporting actress nominee for Carey Mulligan. She seems like such a Maggie Gyllenhaal/Crazy Heart parallel that I'm hoping the buzz for Michael Fassbender will impel voters to vote for her too (like Bridges did for Gyllenhaal). Or worse case scenario is that the Academy is completely turned off by Shame and snubs both of them.
@Dee
do you think Davis is 'strategically' on the cover of EW labelled as a frontrunner?
This time Leo is nominated for SAG, Golden Globes, and BFCA. It seems perfect for a oscar nomination fruition because his last nominated performance in Blood Diamond was exactly only nominated by those 3 groups. But the sad news is his Blood Diamond’s nomination was backed up by a lauded performance in Oscar winning The Departed. So...
For Best Actress, I hope Charlize Theron gets in over Glenn Close.
All I remember about Shannon in Take Shelter is brooding. Shannon gave one of the those performances I feel I'm supposed to love because he is ACTING. But then I hated the movie.
There usually is one surprise nomination and if there is I hope it is Carey Mulligan for Shame. She hasn't done any campaigning so it would be a treat to hear her name called because she deserves it. And it would build up some credibility for her nomination next year for Gatsby.
Some days are just SO DREADFUL! I woke up at like 10 am today.
I liked your point of the positive side of just missing the short list - that it positions the person for continuing interest, like Swinton with Julia and I Am Love. I hope that Kristen Dunst doesn't have such a hard slog next time she gives a great performance.
And I too would like to see Michael Shannon in the final nominations.
Scorsese, Spielberg and Allen each have six directing nominations. Should they get in, they'll have seven. Presuming two newcomers join them, that's 23 total directing nominations
The 1959 line-up with William Wyler (13 of 14 total), Fred Zinneman (4 of 7), Jack Clayton (1 of 1), Billy Wilder (7 of 8) and George Stevens (5 of 5) gives us an epic line-up with 30 of 35 nominations accrued at that point.
I know bashing 'The Help' is a hobby for many posters, and I respect the story, even if I find the direction and photography to be pedestrian. However, am I the only one shocked to see that Octavia Spencer is the consensus pick for Best Supporting Artist?
I found her performance incredibly overrated and underwhelming when compared to her fellow cast members. Her role consisted of shrugging and well-timed quips. Is this Oscar material?
Sadly, I think McCarthy and Shannon won't make it and instead we'll see the more traditional roles of Woodley and DiCaprio nominated. But it's hard to say. This way of thinking would've gotten Duvall a nomination last year.
I agree with everything else you predict, though.
@Brandz- No, that was EW's doing. I think, at least. Dave Karger has had Clooney and Davis as frontrunners on his Oscar prediction chart for a while now. I'm not bashing Meryl being on the cover of Vogue- Michelle Williams was on the cover in October, Rooney Mara was on the cover in November, Charlize Theron was December's cover girl. But Meryl Streep rarely has to campaign.. at least not to the extent that Williams (who if you remember last year was literally on a Blue Valentine North American tour) or Davis who appeared on The View just recently. Streep doing the cover of an ultra prestigious and popular magazine right when voters get their ballots is smart and strategic. That's all I'm saying.
@Mikhael- I like the way you think :)
@Matt - I think, while Spencer is a lock for a nomination, she's not the frontrunner for the win in my mind. (Actually, after seeing ALBERT NOBBS, I'm thinking Janet McTeer might sneak through in a minor upset).
Nat - Best Actress, I'm stubbornly holding onto Elizabeth Olsen in my nomination list (along with Tilda and the three everyone agrees on), so it dismays me to see that you think she's toast. I will have to think about it over the next few days, to decide whether I want to agree with you, or bank hopes on whether she may be this year's Tommy Lee Jones/Laura Linney/you know what I mean.
I keep hoping that in the nomination morning, the academy would defy all the oscar pundits and bloggers and find some love for films like Drive and Tinker Tailor, coming up with nominations for the director (Refn and Alfredson), Actor (Gosling and Oldman) and supporting actor (Brooks and Cumberbatch) instead of some of the usual suspects. One can dream, right :P
This must be the first Oscars in a long, long time without a single major category that feels like an absolute sure thing at this point of the Award cycle - not even 'The Artists' seems invulnerable for Best Picture.
Isn't that great?
So many freelance writers and none of them is capable of writing a complete sentence? :)
Definitely most exciting Oscar race of the last times!
Everything can really happen.
Now that I've seen most of the movies, trying to watch in original language those that have not been released in Italy, I can better express my opinion.
For Best Picture, if there will be 8 nominees i'd include The Ides of March in place of War Horse... and would like Drive and Beginner to be taken into more consideration.
For Best Leading Actress, I definitely belive Meryl is the frontrunner... so much buzz, so much campaign! For once she's adopting a wise strategy, and I don't blame her... she has invested so much in The Iron Lady, especially in terms of image. I think Viola has loss positions and now is 3rd... with the open "battle" Meryl-Michelle... think and hope Meryl will win.. but everything can happen and Michelle is such a talented actress! 4th and 5th slot to Tilda and Glenn.
Best Actor race is IMO the most complicated. I wouldn't understimate the possibilities for Ryan Gosling to be nominated... such a great year for him! And I think Brad Pitt will win...
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain are a lock. I think the second will get the oscar eventually. Hope Melissa Mccarthy and carey Mulligan will get a nod.
And finally best Foreign Film... A SEPARATION. Watched it yestarday and really really loved it! best movie in its category and best movie of the entire year!
I'm a hopeful romantic so I dream Close and Redgrave get in.
Regarding Close, why does she needs to be in a masterpiece in order to get in while Meryl is considered a lock in that sloppy hagiography?
I agree Shannon's a possibility but at the expense of Leo is probably wishful thinking. Reminds me of similar predicted snubs for Matt Damon and Cate Blanchett where people were just hoping Oscar voters would be cleverer than that and yet they were right there on nomination morning.
@Peggy Sue
it's Streep's portrayal of Thatcher and her huge performance that will get her a nomination and the Oscar win, not the movie.
where do we go now? and in darkness are great and deserve to Oscar.
Brandz -- I know! I'm not into "huge" performances but I know the Academy is. I was just complaining about Close and how she never seems to have the right timing with Oscar.
where do we go now ?Declaration of War, Le Havre, in darkness,pina, every people should see them. the best foreign movies.
Declaration of War 's director Valérie Donzelli is to be given special credit for her inspired direction. Not only does she pour her heart and soul into the filming of this painful chronicle but she also proves imaginative and creative, making use of an amazing variety of registers, devices and techniques which wind up making this movie unique.A real contender for the Oscar. she deserve to Oscar
Glad people are seeing DECLARATION OF WAR. It's special. So exciting too which is a weird thing to say abotu a movie about a child with cancer.
Iggy -- yeah that freelance writer spam is baffling. Usually spam comes with links so it's advertisement. I can't figure out why that one is so popular. just random two word comments junking up the place.
Peggy Sue -- that is frustrating about Close -- the timing issue -- but on the other hand 5 nominations. 99.999999999 % of actors can only dream of such good fortune. But great point about Meryl & Glenn. It's just one of the advantages of being Meryl. Absolutely no one requires her to be in a good movie to be excited about her each time but that is expected of most (if not all) of the actors in the Oscar running each year.
RAX --- good point. I do have a fear that Shannon gets inn only to replace Michael Fassbender. Which will make me sad but i do see it as a possibility.
NIC -- i still think that's possible. Drive & Tinker Tailor being stronger than we think. (at the very least i do think Drive is a likely Best Director spoiler and a possible if longshoty presence in Editing)
ADRI -- thanks for noticing. It is really an under discussed point. This would not be happening so easily for Tilda this year without I AM LOVE & JULIA fresh in the memory. So I have every confidence that if, say, Felicity Jones, Kirsten Dunst or Olivia Colman even have another big well received performance right away, they'll find traction much easier.
ARKAAAN -- wow thanks. Where did you find that info so quickly? do yo have spreadsheets?
Nate, you're killing me! Zero nominations for Dragon Tattoo? Really? While I realize it's not going to be the major player I thought it was going to be, it's peaking at just the right time. It made PGA and WGA and has a decent chance of a DGA nom, which would secure it. But to exclude it from Score and Editing and Sound I think is a mistake.
Also, The Tree of Life is toast. It's done. If it gets anything outside of a cinematography nomination I will be surprised at this point, sad as that is.
It will be very interesting to see how Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress play out. I think only Best Actress is locked for its five noms (Streep, Davis, Swinton, Close, Williams) but the others have so many variables. Ironically, Best Supporting Actor seems to have the most room despite the fact that this is clearly Plummer's to lose.
Shannon really seems to be getting talked about a lot now that the ballots are out. That's a good sign. I really need to see Take Shelter now. Who knows? Maybe it'll be my favorite Jessica Chastain performance. Did she do enough in 2011 to warrant a Best Performance by Jessica Chastain category in personal awards?
Erik -- i haven't updated any of the sound categories yet.
also i have yet to read one thing about THE TREE OF LIFE that convinces me that it's toast. Why would the Producers and the Writers -- the two groups most likely to avoid it -- why would their snubs mean anything?
Nathaniel, I just can't accept that Redgrave will be snubbed!!!
Let us suppose (dream?) that ONLY 30% of the acting branch watch Coriolanus. Since her performance is THAT GOOD, could she still manage to get a nod???
I have a feeling that Shannon could replace DiCaprio too, but I'm certainly not confident enough about it to bet on him or anything. I just think it's exactly the kind of surprise nomination that typically happens once or twice each year.
I think Best Actor and Best Actress each have 3 locks plus one near-lock followed by a vaguely open slot. For Actor, it's Clooney, Pitt, and Dujardin as the locks and Fassbender as the near-lock, and for Actress, it's Williams, Streep, and Davis as the locks and Swinton as the near-lock. Also interesting is that in each category, the near-lock spot is occupied by a daring performance in a divisive critics' darling that may or may not appeal to the Academy.
I think Mara will take the fifth slot for Best Actress, by the way. I don't see it happening for Theron because her film never really took off in the way that it needed to in order to propel her to a nomination, and despite the industry love for Close, the love for the film is just not there. Besides, Best Actress is the category that has been most favorable to younger, up-and-coming actresses recently.
The supporting categories are tough to call. Beyond Branagh, Brooks, and Plummer (that sounds like a law firm, doesn't it?), those other two slots are very flexible. Jonah Hill appears to be the safest bet, but I feel like he may be this year's Andrew Garfield. I'm not saying it won't happen, because I do think he'll ultimately make it in, but I definitely don't consider him to be anywhere near a lock. My guess would be that Nolte gets the fifth slot, but either him and/or Hill could easily be replaced by a number of contenders. There could be surprise coattails nominations for Ben Kingsley or Corey Stoll, depending on how much they love their respective films. I don't see Max Von Sydow getting in considering the extremely quiet and incredibly disappointing reaction to his film. I know he's a legend, but if he couldn't get in for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I don't see him making it in for this. I don't feel the love for Armie Hammer, but it's an Eastwood film, so again, you never know. As much as I would love Patton Oswalt to get in, he'll have the same problem that Charlize Theron has: the movie is too divisive, and in such a crowded category, that's not a plus. Andy Serkis would really surprise me. It's one thing when he gets mentioned by critics groups, but since these nominees are chosen by other actors, I think there will be too much resistance to MoCap to get him anywhere. If there's anyone I felt you underestimated in your prediction chart, it's Philip Seymour Hoffman. All this last-minute Ides of March support coupled with general respect for him as an actor could definitely make this happen.
Supporting Actress is even tougher. Part of me feels like Bejo might even get left out due in part to category confusion (she's placed as a lead at the BAFTA's, so it's likely that at least a few voters will place her there as well). Pretty much everyone except Spencer and Chastain are vulnerable, I think. My current predictions are Spencer, Chastain, Bejo, Woodley, and McTeer, but the inclusion of McCarthy, Mulligan, or even Redgrave still wouldn't surprise me.
re: directing totals - I just went with one of Wyler's later years, knowing he's the champ, and when you have four winners (Wilder, Zinneman, Stevens and Wyler are all TWO TIME WINNERS at least), odds are in your favour.
re: none of the categories are locked. At best, each one has three locks.
Not that it matters much to me, but I just noticed that the banner montages for the Foreign (Language) Film, Screenplays, Visual, and Aural Predictions pages were never updated to reflect the winners for 2010.