As someone who is absolutely not feeling it today -- why do some days torment us, so? -- I thought I'd best *finally* finish updating the Oscar predictions. So I'm working on it. As ever I'm sure you'll tell me exactly where I'm right and wrong.
Even though I'm not technically feeling it today, I am most definitely feeling it in terms of the Oscars this year. It's SO exciting for once. Lots of confusion in each category I think. Just the way we like it. If predictions aren't difficult, they aren't fun.
Picture I'm guessing 8 nominees though I think Moneyball is stronger and War Horse weaker than my chart suggests. Though perhaps this is wishful thinking?
Director If Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen and Steven Spielberg are all nominated here, that would be madness. I need to do the statistics but I am pretty sure that that would be the most previously nominated group ever assembled in Best Director since they're the 3 most nominated living / working directors. But as of this writing I don't think Spielberg is in.
Actress Tilda and Glenn aren't invulnerable for very different reasons. Rooney Mara was surging while ballots went out but it's not really an Oscar type role so who knows? And then there's still Charlize (just interviewed) sneering at all of them in her Hello Kitty shirt. Everyone else is toast.
Actor I'm taking a risk because I keep hearing Michael Shannon's name even though his movie is basically gone. But then so is Leo's.
Shannon got one nomination by surprise. Can he pull off surprise #2?
Supporting Actress I still think this category is VERY difficult to predict. Someone with a lot of precursor attention isn't going to make it. People always say it's easy to predict this one until you remind them that six women have won plentiful precursor attention. Six ≠ Five.
Supporting Actor totally diffuse if you ask me beyond the Branagh-Plummer-Brooks triangle. Wouldn't it be a hoot if Corey Stoll or Viggo Mortensen made it in?
Screenplay Original is still super crowded and impossible to figure with at least five major contenders ineligible for the recent Writer's Guild noms. Adapted is easier but not completely simple.
CALENDAR FUN!
Today, I got the hugest package in the mail. I mean it was enormous. And this thin calendar to your right was all that was inside. HA! Here's to killing trees for nothing! But it did immediately remind me that I need to nail down my calendar for 2012. I want it to be the best year ever here at The Film Experience. I really do. The Bext Exotic Marigold Hotel promisese to open on May 4th. In worse news, The Wettest Country has been moved back AGAIN. Now they're saying August. Let's face it: that movie is never going to open. If both do open as intended who knows. Oscar 2012? The Help, The Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris, all summer releases, are still in play for 2011's race.
Here's some dates you should know about as we move forward into our busiest month.
JANUARY DATES
- Sat. 7th National Society of Film Critics... ending critic prizes.
- Mon. 9th Directors Guild Nominations ... which was once the most accurate predictor of anything-ever as to what would be Best Picture nominated. The last few years have made those statistics useless with all the changes as to # of nominees.
- Thur. 12th BFCA "CRITICS CHOICE" AWARDS (yes, we'll live blog or something)
- Fri. 13th Oscar Ballots due. Nothing on this day or forward can affect who gets nominated.
- Sat. 14th LAFCA Awards Ceremony (not televised)
- Sun. 15th GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS (yes, we'll live blog or something)
- Mon. 16th ACE Eddie Award Nominations (Editing) and we'll do Oscar chart updates .
- Wed. 18th BAFTA nominations - not the fake ones.
- Thurs. 19th Costume Designers Guild Nominations
- Sat. 21st Producers Guild Award Ceremony (not televised)
- Sun. 22nd FOLLIES closes on Broadway... heading to Los Angeles but without Bernadette Peters. *sniffle* Do not miss it! Oh and also this is the day when we'll post our final predictions for nominations in all Oscar categories.
- Tues. 24th OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED
- Sun. 29th SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS (Yes, we'll live blog or something)
What are you looking forward to?
Oscar Prediction comments?