Thursday
May232013
Early Bird Oscar Predix: The "Best Actor" Chart
Thursday, May 23, 2013 at 5:40PM Guess who goes where?
Everything feels so possible at the start... the only "lockish" thing about this year's Best Actor race is that there is a crazy amount of HAIR happening. Goatees, moustaches, wigs, curls, shags, pomade, dye-jobs, fros... you name it, it's happening!
THE BEST ACTOR CHART
Tom Hanks, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Matthew McConaughey leading the charge
Which leading men are you rooting for? (From a distance of course. I hope you all jump ship if the performance doesn't live up to your dreams! The past few years of Oscar races have shown a disturbing amount of stubborn Team Loyalty before the films and performances were seen)
Reader Comments (50)
any thoughts about robert redford's chances now that everyone's raving about All Is Lost in cannes?
Sundance often gives us one of the Actress nominees, but it sounded to me like Michael B. Jordan was the most likely to hold buzz all the way to a nomination. Actor tends to be tougher, of course, but he's the only one I'd put money on at this point (and very little money on him).
Redford is getting critical Hosannas for All is Lost. Considering he's never won before and is the only person in his film I'd say he's got a good a shot as anyone, not only at the nomination, but conceivably at winning the whole thing. Otherwise, I like your predicted five. I think if I had to guess at this early stage I'd go with:
Steve Carrell (Fox Catcher)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Mix of veterans, two time first nominees, and two people seemingly overdue for a win. Plus you can also check off the real life people, mentally disabled, and playing against type boxes as well. As for Dern, I think he'll end up in supporting where he could very easily win.
I want all the black men that aren't Forest Whitaker to get nominated, that would be awesome.
I'm already rooting for Bruce Dern. He was marvelous in Big Love!
PS I hate comparing actors, but Michael B. Jordan is so the next Denzel Washington...
I don't know why but I'm feeling confident predicting Joaquin Phoenix for HER. And Amy Adams too.
I really hope Twelve Years a Slave is good and Chiwetel Ejiofor gets a nomination for it. He's so great! I'll watch him in anything and this means I have sat through 2012.
dainty & tim -- yeah i have been ignoring Cannes while building charts so the Redford thing was happening as i was typing. Meant to at least have him in the chart -- let's see if he wins on Sunday before i move him up ;) -- but i have added him to the chart.
BUT i will say that "overdue" thing with Redford is going to bother me. I personally enjoy him (and his movies) but he has 2 Oscars already! Just not for acting I know. But it would be like if they suddenly felt like they had to give Clint Eastwood a 5th Oscar.... or give Oprah a competitive one after her inexplicable Honorary one. "well, no, people you really dont!"
1. Leonardo DiCaprio- The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Robert Redford- All Is Lost
3. Steve Carell- Foxcatcher
4. Chiwetel Ejifor- 12 Years a Slave
5. Matthew McConegheny- Dallas Buyer's Club
ALT: Bruce Dern
theres always a comeback king/queen plus redfords in captain america 2 next year,career resurgence.
You know that's not true--'91, Barton Fink, in supporting actor.
Leo fatigue? He's only had 3 noms, just seems like Oscar isn't a fan!
Well done, Nathaniel!
I'm predicting a McConaughey win. Unless... the Oscars get cancelled (OMG THIS MUST NEVER HAPPEN JESUS CHRIST ALMIGHTYYYYYY).
Nathaniel, All Is Lost is not playing in competition.
Yeah Nathaniel, the winner of the Male Acting prize will probably be Oscar Isaac. He has extremely good odds.
He'll probably be the Kiki Dunst of the year and not translate that into an Oscar nom.
McConaughey or DiCaprio for the win Ejiofor a possilbe upset if critics awards come first.
It won't happen, but I think it would be great to see both Michael B. Jordan and Idris Elba nominated in the same year just to see a miniature reunion of sorts for The Wire.
My early hunches tell me Steve Carell and Matthew McConaughey are in. Of the major early contenders, they seem like the two who stand the best chance at being nominated even if their movies aren't Best Picture players. DiCaprio, Ejiofor, Hanks, Bale, and several others seem like they'll be nominated or not based on how well their films go over in the Best Picture race. Again, that's just an early hunch I have.
let's see if he wins on Sunday before i move him up...
Eh, Nathaniel, All is Lost is out of competition at Cannes. No awards mentions, but I agree with everyone else than Redford is becoming a sure contender.
Also, Nathaniel you need to quit Tom Hanks for "Saving Mr. Banks". According to many sources and reports from the test screeners, his role is more a glorifying cameo. Even Farrell has better notes than Hanks
My predix:
1. Robert Redford - All is Lost: With these reviews and not clear oppositor, he can win
2. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyer's Club: The physical transformation
3. Michael B. Jordan - Fruitvale Station: The most likely contender by the Weinstein
4. Christian Bale - American Hustle: Welcome back winner
5. Josh Brolin - Labor Day: Hunch
----------------------------------------------------
6. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street: Never understimate AMPAS rejection
7. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llewyn Davis: If he'll win on Sunday, I put him in fifth place
8. Benedict Cumberbacht - The Fifth Estate: Like Bruhl
9. Chiwetel Ejiofor - Twelve Years a Slave: Maybe Fox Searchlight biggest champ
10.Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher: Comedic performer in a dramatic role
How I, amazingly, see this category operating right now:
1. Leo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Christoph Waltz, The Zero Theorem
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
4. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle
6. Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
7. Josh Brolin, Spike Lee's Oldboy
8. Simon Pegg, The World's End
9. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave
10. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
11. Tom Hanks, Saving Mister Banks (Oscar is on a medium self-love kick recently and this is probably the more blatant and defiant return of "Tom Hanks, the actor")
12. Bruce Dern, Nebraska (respected industry veteran will get him SOME points, but his last nom was thirty-five years ago, Alexander Payne is losing steam and this is a tight year with a lot of potential genuinely hot narratives to latch onto (including: The potential revivals of Gilliam and Spike Lee, the return of Tom Hanks, the end of the Three Flavours trilogy and McConaughey actually losing weight for a role)
13. George Clooney, Monuments Men
14. Bradley Cooper, Serena (if it releases)
15. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
(16-20 would probably be Hawke, Firth, Hanks in Captain Phillips, Redford and Elba)
Didn't hear about the "It's a cameo thing" with Saving Mr. Banks. Bump everyone below him up a slot (Ethan Hawke to slot fifteen) and position 20 is Hugh Jackman for Prisoners.
/3rtful -- one exception proves the rule ;) PLENTY of performances in Coen Bros movies have won raves but not seen Oscar traction.
/3rtful -- one exception proves the rule ;) PLENTY of performances in Coen Bros movies have won raves but not seen Oscar traction.
I think DiCaprio is the front-runner either way for Gatsby or Wolf, but he'll probably miss out...yet again. They could've got away with giving him a supporting statue this year, but I think they will have to reward him eventually--he's too big of a force. It would probably sting for him to be surpassed by someone like Matthew M.
Volvagia, check the reviews by the test screeners -Maybe i'm over the top for the cameo-, but many of them said Hanks was only in 10 - 15 minutes, even Farrell got more scenes and didn't make impact like Thompson and Farrell
Also, Magnolia Pictures will release Serena, so no Oscar campaign.
Nathaniel, is there a particular reason why you aren't considering Spike Jonze's HER in your predictions?
The movie already has a release date, November 20, right in the cusp of awards season: http://screenrant.com/spike-jonze-her-movie-release-date/
And last time Jonze had such a good cast (HER has Amy Adams doing career-best work, according to Jonze in an interview, Joaquin Phoenix profiting from possibly another good year, ScarJo, Chris Pratt, Samantha Morton, Rooney Mara), 'Adaptation' happened.
Plus, he has yet to deliver a mediocre movie by my book. 'Where the Willd Things Are', 'Being John Malkovich' and 'Adaptation' all very good movies.
I'm hoping for a Tom Hanks comeback.
I like this part of the season too, where we're looking forward to dozens of movies and dozens of possibilities. I like the way The Film Experience keeps it so wide open. It's more fun that way. And some films and performances are unexpectedly good! (and some film aren't).
Once it gets calcified around the usual suspects, a lot of the fun is gone. Although oddly, we can still be at the point where we still haven't seen the actual performances.
This upcoming season feels a little different to me because I'm more interested in the films with actress leading parts. Of the male-centric films mentioned so far, I'm only interested in seeing about a third of them. The films with more female leads seem fresher this year, which isn't always the case. Sometimes you feel you're really scraping the bottom of the barrel just to get actress nominations. Not this year.
Of course, before the film comes out, you can't tell what it will be like, but some of the films suggested for best actor performances, despite the drama, just seem so ... Dull. But it's unfair to prejudge. I'm hoping for lots of surprises. And please let Chiwetel Ejiofor's lead role be a really good one.
Is Hanks this years Denzel.
Do you think they'll go the "Kate Winslet" way for Tom Hanks? Meaning the critic groups go all win this and then an also for in the bracket. The major precursors go lead for one and supporting for another (guess the supporting will be the Walt Disney part), before Oscar eventually deem the later a category fraud (what a rarity) and nominate him in one category only? Anyhow it'll end up like what you predicted here, I'm just wondering about the process in between.
But a significant difference between the Kate situation and the Tom situation is that Kate Winslet didn't have an Oscar then and actress category is usually less crowded so precursors were easily focused on one or two actresses. Tom already won twice, and precursors won't be so eager to rush to his "rescue" thus it will be less buzz for him. So much competition in actor category.
I'm happy Ejiofer is in the conversation and I'm rooting for him. I've loved him since Dirty Pretty Things.
Winslet was support in The Reader.She won for the wrong film anyway.
mark -- that is silly. Kate was not supporting in The Reader. The whole film irevolves around the title characters obsession with her. She's in, like, all of it. oy.
Jorge -- it just sounded so bizarre and Oscar isn't always into the "weirdo" projects, you know? also in regards to directors saying that someone in their cast is doing their best work ever: this is never anything we can trust because people say superlatives about their own unseen projects all the time.
adri -- hmmm. you should share a list of the female prospects. the only charts left are for the actresses and I'm having trouble filling them -- seems like LESS female leads to me this year than in previous years. I only count about 12 actual competitors and at least one of them will probably fraudulently pretend she's a supporting actress all of a sudden.
I just can't help but feel DALLAS BUYERS CLUB is about twenty years too late. Doesn't it just sound like a cousin to LONGTIME COMPANION?
Glenn -- maybe. I thought that too and first and then decided to just be optimistic.
I think it comes down to this final five:
1 Leonardo DiCaprio
-The Wolf of Wall Street
2 Tom Hanks
-Saving Mr. Banks
3 Steve Carell
-Foxcatcher
4 Forest Whitaker
-The Butler
5 Benedict Cumberbatch
-The Fifth Estate
I never realized Redford has only been nominated once for acting, that is pretty surprising. I think if he is in they will want to give him a competitive acting Oscar, but then again they never felt the need to do that with someone like Warren Beatty so maybe I am wrong. Nathaniel, I am hoping Julie Delpy ranks higher in your actress chart than Ethan does, dying to see Before Midnight!
After Firth, DuJardin and DDL, I think they gonna be all-American this time. It's McConaughey.
So many of these men have been on the cusp at one point or another (Fassbender, Carell, Ejiofor, McConaughey) that I really hope at least one of them makes the final cut, assuming the work justifies the nomination.
Troy H.: I don't know about that on all of them. Fassbender certainly was "on the cusp" (Shame was easily 6th place Lead Actor and Supporting Actress in it's year and that's as wide as I'm willing to draw the "on the cusp" net) and McConaughey probably was as well (2012 was a five person landslide with him as an increasingly darkened dark horse upset nomination), but Carell was probably 10th place or lower in his year, as was Ejiofor with Kinky Boots.
Volvagia: In my mind they all have. :-)
Right now, I have:
1. DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
2. Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
3. Ojiefor, 12 Years
4. Hanks, Cpt Phillips
5. Dern/Forte (whichever is lead), Nebraska
6. Phoenix, Her
7. McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
8. Bale, American Hustle
9. Elba, Mandela
10. Whitaker, The Butler
11. Isaac, Llewyn Davis
12. Fassbender, The Counselor
My top five as of now for LEAD ACTOR:
1. Bruce Dern, "Nebraska" (Career honors acknowledgement; Payne overdue factor; black and white/#OMGserious!; has to overcome lack of name recognition and director wanting Gene Hackman as his first choice for role)
2. Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club" (that forward career momentum you always talk about will help him now that he's doing "bait," not roles that the Academy would never think about touching ("Killer Joe"), offbeat comedies ("Bernie"), or dirty stripper movies ("Magic Mike"); "it's his time!"
3. Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher" (If this catches on, watch out; should have been nodded for "Little Miss Sunshine"; should have won an Emmy for "The Office")
4. Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips" (This is his "Flight," mark my words; it'll carry him for the entire season if it's a hit; possible dual nods if "Saving Mr. Banks" goes supporting)
5. Forest Whitaker, "The Butler" (I have a feeling that this is going to be "The Help" level big at the box office, especially mirroring that film's release schedule; OPRAH factor will rub off on him some; past winner making good with next nomination following distant win, yada, yada, yada)
And there you have it, folks! You're welcome. :-)
Short-List:
Hanks, Captain Phillips/Saving Mr. Banks
-I think there will be an awards he'll be double-nominated but whatever gets more traction will lead to the other getting dropped
Ojiofor, 12 Years a Slave
-I will be so happy if this happened.
McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
-But if you put a gun to my head I would say he will actually get supporting this year for The Wolf on Wall Street.
DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
-Call me crazy but I feel like 'Leo is due!' will be the next awards season's 'Poor Ben!'
Dark Horses:
Redford, All is Lost
-This movie is his show, Oscar loves older actors getting a second-act and he really seemed proud of this movie from my understanding.
Michael B. Jordan, Frutivale Station
-He might be too young and green for the industry but he could easily be the Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone nominee. It is so weird that Oscar is obsessed with the up and coming actresses but not the actors.
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
-Now this role is supposedly not the showiest and the Coens and Oscar have a checkered past. They may have to rely on the movie's overall strength because I doubt CBS Films is suddenly capable of an Oscar campaign. Luckily, it does sound like the movie can sell itself.
Perhaps Too Weird for Oscar:
Phoenix, Her
-Will he ever be nominated again? Much less for a Spike Jonze movie? Adaptation did happen but that happened when Meryl was starting her upswing, Chris Cooper was America's favorite character actor, and Nic Cage was still mildly respectable in the industry. Plus it played off the beats of creating art that sold really well to Academy members.
Bale, American Hustle
-The movie will probably be as weird as most DOR movies are (but the Academy is used to him by now) but this may have gone too far in his bag of method acting tricks and transformation for some people. After Dicky Eklund, I think members went, 'Okay, here, here is your Oscar. No more bizarro weight and hair yo-yoing.'
Need to See More Before Jumping to Conclusions:
Tatum, Ruffalo, Carell, Foxcatcher
-Foxcatcher sounds the baitiest of Annapurna's 2013 output (and Bennett Miller seems pretty well-known at the Academy at this point) but with three co-leads from the sounds of it this may be a little hard to choose because of what Nathaniel said yesterday on potential category fraud.
Fassbender, The Counselor
-Ridley going to straight drama again should be interesting but I wonder if Fassbender is really 'a name' at the Academy since Shame got shunned by members, IIRC.
Most Likely to Get into a Case of Category Fraud by Being Moved to Supporting:
Bruce Dern and Team Foxcatcher
Also, are we really still bullish about The Butler? That and The Fifth Estate already seem DOA for me as bait.
I hope that 'Fruitvale Station' doesn't get any major nominations...it's terribly written. Michael Jordan is a talented actor, but his role is paper-thin.
Orion -- lol. you sound so sure of yourself, well done.
Lynn - i haven't seen it yet. (sigh) but i always question Sundance hits.
So Leo is a no go for "Gatsby"? That's too bad. He was better here than he's been in a long time, even "Django."
What can I say, that's just meeeeee! :-) If you're going to make predictions, then make predictions. No need to be so swishy about things. You'll either be totally right or totally wrong. Life goes on either way!
1. Leonardo DiCaprio
2. Jack Dawson
3. Billy Costigan
4. Frank Wheeler
5. Calvin Candie
Leo is due.
LEO IS SOO DUE. Last year wasnt yet forgiven.
Emma Stone: "Alan Arkin for Argo, previous winner!"
I found your website perfect for my needs. It contains wonderful and helpful posts.
bullet force