Final Oscar Nom Predictions: Part 1
Tuesday, January 14, 2014 at 10:59PM 
The time has come!
I'm never sure I should say this out loud as an Oscar pundit of some degree of reknown but I love being wrong. That generally means the film year is still chalk full of films and performances people are still considering. As well they should. It also means that, try as they might to game the system, the distributors who shove everything into a three week window of releasing and the abundant precursor bodies that aim to predict future Oscar nominations rather than really thinking about what they loved most in an entire film year, can't really control it. The Academy will do as the Academy does. And thank god lest all joy be stamped out of the process through ruthless homogeny (Jared Leto again? Must we?! And I like Jared Leto in that movie, despite that tone deaf Globe acceptance speech)
So herewith my best guesses as to what the shortlists will look like come Thursday morning... and my apologies for the late at night no sleep train of thought messiness to follow... I'm working through the night before my plane to Los Angeles...
BEST PICTURE
Locks: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and Captain Phillips will be fighting for the statue that matters most and they're currently running in probably that order.
If there were only five: that last spot would be a bloody battle between Dallas Buyers Club, The Wolf of Wall Street and Nebraska, three films which with distinctly different temperaments though all three are very concerned with merciless socioeconomic systems. As it is, though, I think all three are safe... which makes seven best picture nominees.
Expanded Field: From there it gets cloudier. SAG suggests The Butler. PGA rallied for Saving Mr Banks and Blue Jasmine. The Globes liked Her and BAFTA joins them in loving Philomena. Critics are gaga for Inside Llewyn Davis. And so on... I'm guessing we get 8 nominees this year and that the Picture lineup ends with the unbuzzy Philomena (not exactly an internet sensation but different crowds, you know?) but if we stay locked up at 9 nominations, which we've had the past two years, make room for hipster Her (which appeals to the type of people who write about movies and thus gets talked up more).
BEST DIRECTOR
Locks: Cuaron, McQueen, Greengrass, Russell... though last year's shockeroos in this category suggest that no one is truly safe.
But Who Gets The Last Spot? The Globes suggest Payne and the DGA wants what it often wants: Scorsese. Scorsese is highly probable --he also scored with BAFTA -- and you absolutely shouldn't bet against him but i'm going for the no guts no glory factor. I'm guessing just enough people were turned off by Wall Street, which was under constant fire during voting (which can work for you or against you but who knows which it did?). I want to say something crazy like Jean Marc Vallee or JC Chandor just so I have bragging rights but I think i"m going to guess Spike Jonze... purely on the anecdotal evidence that Darren Aronofsky will be voting for him.
BEST ACTOR
Locks: Dern, DiCaprio, Ejiofor, Hanks, McConaughey, Redford, McConaughey
OH MY GOD THAT'S SIX PEOPLE AND MY BRAIN IS GOING TO EXPLODE. I keep changing my mind about which of these six men isn't going to make it and literally ANY of them seem both possible and unthinkable as The Snubbee. Statistically speaking DiCaprio is probably running seventh or eighth (SAG went for Whitaker and the BFCA went for both Bale and Isaac ahead of him) but his prospects were rising during voting as that BAFTA nod suggests and he seems like a very real threat to me... but then who gets the golden boot in their hard-working ass? I kept flipping between Redford and McConaughey but given the shocking (to me at least) strength that the somewhat standard Dallas Buyer's Club has shown across the board at guilds, it became Redford. Leo or Bob? Both are blonde handsome true movie stars who can come across as a bit above it (they're not going to beg you for your vote). One is a gargantuan celebrity to anyone fortysomething or younger and the other a gargantuan movie star to anyone fortysomething or older. I've noticed in my online travels that there are sizeable huge swaths of younger people out there that don't have any connection to Robert Redford but that shouldn't fool them into thinking nobody else. His cinematic legacy is rich from the 60s classics and on through the enormous influence of Sundance. The question is really whether Bruce Dern is hogging all the attention for legacy votes, whether voters liked All is Lost, and whether all the Wolf of Wall Street controversies helped or hurt DiCaprio. My biggest hesitation in predicting Leo is essentially that BFCA snub. The BFCA, to which I belong, really has made a mess of the voting adding additional categories without actually renaming the traditional one. So essentially they have a traditional Best Actor category that is not labelled as "drama" and wherein comic performance sometimes appear and they've added a Best Actor in a Comedy category without changing the original category to Drama. So is it telling that Leo wasn't strong enough to compete in the traditional category from a group that had clearly seen the movie given its nominations elsewhere?
a perfect illustration for a meryl snub? Actresses dogpiling on her!BEST ACTRESS
Locks: Blanchett, Bullock, Thompson, Dench
Fifth Slot Madness: Who'da thunk that Meryl Streep could possibly be the odd woman out for a role as mammoth as Violet Weston? And yet here we are and the knives seem to be out (at least on the internet) and everyone has been talking about Amy Adams and American Hustle is inarguably way more popular than August: Osage County. So I'm guessing it's Adams who is, lest we forget, on part with Meryl (at least lately) in the Academy's willingness to scribble her name down reflexively. I saw all of this with a tear in my eye for Brie Larson and Adele Exarchopoulus, both of whom never quite took as contenders despite being so damn good in films that critics and media types seemed to feel genuinely passionate about... at least until they had to start predicting Oscars voting habits voting for their own year end prizes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Locks: Jennifer, June, Lupita
Probable: Julia Roberts... unless voters, opt out on Meryl and realize they COULD, you know, put Julia where she belongs in leading
Fifth Slot Battle: But it's probably between Oprah Winfrey and Sally Hawkins and my guess is that The Butler won't quite tank as hard as the internet is thinking/hoping with Oscar voters. They are, don't forget, willing snubbers of the great Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky *sniffle*) and major Oprah fans giving her an Honorary despite a scant filmography (sure sure it was for humanitarian work, but it's still a film-community honor given to someone with a scant filmography).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Locks: Barkhad Abdi, Jared Leto
Probable: Michael Fassbender
With Two Spots To Be Divvied Up Among: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Brühl, Jonah Hill or James Gandolfini.
But as I've been saying all year, posthumous nominations are quite rare so I think Gandolfini is the easiest to cut but from there it gets tricky. Daniel Brühl has all the precursors and leading roles have an obvious edge when they're competing for supporting slots (so unjust!) but he's a low profile actor, however talented, and few people are talking about the film. Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill -- does the category really have room for two amoral hyena types? It's possible that all three could make it in and push the non-campaigning Michael Fassbender out, but that'd be a real shame. As for now I'm thinking that Wolf of Wall Street has to show somewhere and in this relatively quiet category might be its best shot outside of Picture.
And, okay, maybe I should get at least two hours of sleep before LA...
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY & SHORTS
FOREIGN FILM
VISUAL CATEGORIES
SOUND CATEGORIES
SCREENPLAYS
You should also check out the final thoughts from the Gurus of Gold
But clearly in 2014 I have to up my game. Now people are even singing their Oscar predictions.
I'm not going to do that unless you all buy ear plugs but I'll step it up a notch for 2014. I will. I will. I'll explain the hows and whys. Pinky swear. Stick around.
Oscars (13)
Reader Comments (81)
*** THE BLING RING in Costume Design!!! ***
i predict a double nom for amy adams, with supporting actress not for "her" but for her subtle and layered lois lane in "man of steel." now that she's passed greta garbo in oscar nominations, she's come into her own as a legend in the making. the academy board of directors should also break precedent by awarding her retroactive nominations for her subtle and food-tormented julie in "julie and julia," for her layered romcom heroine in "leap year" and for her subtly layered take on hilary swank's amelia earhart in "night at the museum: battle of the smithsonian." this would get her up to 8 nominations, which would put her ahead of everyone except streep, katharine hepburn, and bette davis. she's definitely better than streep and davis, and is the equal of hepburn. call amy the katharine hepburn of our era--but ever so much more subtle and layered.
lol
I don't think the Oscars ever really surprise that much. Streep will be nominated. She always gets nominated and Oscar will continue that tradition. Amy Adams may get in but it will be Thompson or Dench that gets left out.
My out of left field prediction - in Supporting Actor both Abdi and Bruhl get snubbed for Clooney and Hill.
Eddie, Clooney and Hill! A snowball is now forming in HELL. Blech!
LOL at xander's classic post!
I had a dream last night that Frozen was nominated for Best Picture, so that's going to be my officlal "No gets/no glory" pick.
*Crosses fingers*
Best Supporting Actor:
Sam Rockwell, The Way Way Back
brookesboy - Just think Wolf of Wall Street has to get an acting nod somewhere, like Arkin last year for Argo. The movie is too big to be shut out of the acting noms and with DiCaprio not being a sure thing, they give it Hill.
Clooney seems to do no wrong by the Academy, they adore him.
Eddie, ITA with your way of thinking. You are right. I just really hope these two do NOT get in...yucko. I still cannot believe we live in a world where Clooney is an Oscar winner, has three other nominations, and Myrna Loy never even got nommed. Ah, the injustice.
And Hill, along with Seth Rogan, just really REALLY irritates me. Sigh.
Why cant Dench be out??? Who loves that performance?
Xander- you made my day!
I do feel like I have entered some alternate reality
Mark this down now Brie Larson will get nominated for best actress!!!! She gave one of the best performances of the year she beat cate blanchett head to head (Gotham Awards) Short Term 12 is an academy movie I think more AMPAS members have seen it than most people think!!!! It would be a damn shame if Short Term 12 gets 0 nominations tomorrow
I've been reading and enjoying The FilmExperience since the 2009/10 Oscar season (y'all seem to call it 2009, but I actually prefer to call it 2010, like IMDb does), and that was the most unsurprising ever. I love surprises, and always predict surprises that will never happen, as I'm a bad predictor with no idea, and I would love it and it's wishful thinking. Fortunately, there was at least one or two little surprises in every year since 2010/11, namely:
2010/11:
- 2nd rate surprise: Mila Kunis out, when everybody seemed to say it's between Hailee Steinfeld and Jacki Weaver
2011/12:
- 2nd rate surprise: Woodley out, it seemed to be between McCarthy and... hmm... no idea, but I don't remember anyone predicting Woodley out
- 2nd rate surprise: Gary and Demián in
- 1st rate surprise literally noone predicted: Max von Sydow
2012/13:
- 1st rate surprise noone predicted, though still boring because of the movie: Jacki Weaver in
- 1st rate surprise, though controversial: Affleck and Bigelow out
So here are my not very educated hunches for 2013/14:
- Best Actress: I definitely think Amy is in, but it's rather Emma or Dame Judi making room for her than Meryl. I'd love to predict Adele in, but no way.
- Best Actor: they really don't seem to like Leo, but if he doesn't get in for this something's really really wrong. But who makes room? I also almost predicted Bale in, but that seems too unlikely, and would complicate the last question even more. McConaughey would have been the obvious snub back in the times when Spacey would win over Pitt, Caine would win over Cruise, Cameron would be criminally snubbed for Lotte, and Arkin (shudder) would win over the universally predicted Murphy (didn't see that one and can't imagine he would really be deserving)... but those times seem to be over since Sandy B. won over Meryl. I see him and Ejiofor as unvulnerable, but I could only see Dern out if I also saw Squibb out, which I don't, and they probably love Hanks and Redford way too much still/again.
Okay, I go for something unlikely: McConaughey out!
- Best Supporting Actor: I wanted to predict Franco in so badly, and I would if it weren't for his 2010/11 hosting performance. It will take them years to forgive him that. I'd love to predict an out-of-nowhere nod for John Goodman, because I want to predict him every year, but that doesn't work without love for Oscar Isaac and the movie. Ever since both SAG and GG nods were out I kinda had a feeling that the two line-ups will merge and kick my landsman Daniel Brühl out, so: Abdi/Cooper/Fassbender/Gandolfini/Leto
- Best Supporting Actress: Here I'm somehow most inclined to go with the most likely lineup of Jen/Lupita/Julia/June/Oprah, but this category seems to be the one most likely for a surprise within the last years. Even 2009/10 was a minor surprise with Maggie, only not in my mind because Nathaniel predicted it. ;-) Not to break that tradition, I say Julia out, Sally in.
- Best Director: Okay, the BA/KB snub of this year would be Cuaron and McQueen out, right? No way. I'll still go out on a limb, but in a different way, and say: Cuaron/McQueen/O'Russell/Greengrass/Arab-born-French-Guy-whose-name-I-can't-spell-correctly-and-am-too-lazy-to-look-up-for-his-three-hour-Lesbian-love-story
Okay, now I'm gonna check on the Razzie nominations and then go to sleep (it's 11:30 pm here)...
Xander--love it
Finally saw A:OC today and in no universe except TWC's twisted one is Julia Roberts supporting. I really hope the surprise will be that both Roberts and Streep get in as BA. Julianne Nicholson is my MVP and would love to see her with a supporting nod in what was truly a supporting role, though she got a ton of screen time. Not really understanding why Sad Man disliked Roberts' performance as I thought it was her best in years.
Also pulling for Paulson, Gerwig, and Redford.
@brookesboy: "And Hill, along with Seth Rogan, just really REALLY irritates me" - please don't take this personal, and for the record I don't like them either, but I just have to make a remark that will probably not be very popular here:
They probably irritate you because they're fat. If they were women, you would probably be called sexist and something like a beauty-Nazi.
But I'm guilty of that, too. I'm male and overweight and have low self-confidence because of it, and therefore I just can't stand fat guys who act like they're the shit - cool, sexy and everything else...
Dominick, they are bad actors who do act cool when they are talentless oafs. That is why they irritate me.
Hi Pam, Team Paulson and Team Redford!
That means I have to sadly sacrifice Hanks. My Best Actor lineup:
Ejiofor, Dern, McConaughey, DiCaprio, Redford.
@brookesboy. Fair enough. With all the constant, sometimes absolutely undeniable, sometimes a little over the top bitching about sexism against women on this site, I just somehow smelled a double standard. Though on close examination it isn't, because these two are legitimately assholes. Jack Black falls into the same category - no, that's not right. He's the king and patriot saint of this category. Melissa McCarthy, a self-confident overweight woman, I would sure as hell not call her sexy, but she's a dozen times more charming than those "self-confident" overweight men JH, SR and JB. Because they're not self-confident, they're a-holes with bloated egoes (and bodies). Though I suddenly start to find Rogen less bad than the other two...
TB- With you. Plus, it makes for a good narrative when the person he tried to crush last year, Megan Ellison, seems primed to have one of her actresses, namely Amy, to get in those spots not to mention several major categories.
Also love The Grandmaster to get in so that issue of her and Harvey come up again. It's like when Samuel L. Jackson finally found Bruce Willis in Unbreakable. A super-villain needs to be against somebody everybody else roots for.
Forgot something I wanted to include: Jason Segel would be the rare example of a charming overweight guy...
And now I'm done with it, I promise.
Nat, you are usually right with your Oscrar predictions----but shame on
You for bumping Meryl for. Amy. Ain't gonna happen - Meryl is in!
Dominick, it's so true--they are assholes lol
Dominik, not buff ≠ overweight.
Jason Segel is schlubby, but he'd only be overweight on the Planet of the Waifs.
FINAL PREDICTIONS (With Commentary):
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
It’s been a strong year for film, like 2012 was- and with so many close calls, who knows what’s going to happen on Thursday morning. The consensus seems to be that three films are duking it out for best in show- they are of course American Hustle, a vastly overrated mess in my book. 12 Years a Slave, a daring and dark look into America’s worst pastime, and Gravity- my favorite film of the year, that immersed us into outer space and told a simple yet compelling story, all while impressing us with stellar direction and amazing visual effects, along with a notable performance by Sandra Bullock. My bias towards Russell’s film might have caused me to overlook it in some key categories, but nonetheless it’s won 3 Golden Globe awards, made over $100 million domestically and the general consensus is it’s a worthy contender. Whether it will derail Best Picture (Drama) 12 Years a Slave or Gravity is another story.
I also predict that Dallas Buyers Club, another one of my favorite films, will do a little better than people are giving it credit for. This is not just a showcase for acting- the whole movie is attentive and keeps our minds circulating around a very heavy social issue (AIDS), while steering clear of cliché moments (though Jennifer Garner’s hammer in the wall sequence was reaching, don’t ya think?)
You can’t have a race without one of Harvey Weinstein’s babies being born, and this time it looks to be Philomena, not August: Osage County, and why not? Sentimental, British, Judi Dench. What more could you ask for? Don’t be surprised if it misses though, but you have to have your arthouse stock- which is why Spike Jonze’s Her will also, most likely, be remembered. With an expanded field of up to 10 nominees, I can’t see Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips going ignored either- and it was a box-office nailbiter that did well in the summer.
Winding down to the rails, and look at that- Alexander Payne’s Nebraska looks good for a call out as well; critically acclaimed, father/son coming of age drama. Payne movies always do good here (think The Descendants, Sideways). Plus it’s Bruce Dern’s big comeback.
Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street could go either way, but I am betting the grittier voters will appreciate it’s daring nature and respect that this is Marty in top form (plus he’s campaigning well). It could have peaked a bit too late, but I say it’s got enough momentum.
Which leaves us with one spot left (if we do get 10 nominees). I refuse to accept that voters will lap up Saving Mr. Banks (PGA nod aside); it just seems a little to…bland to make the lineup of great remembered films of 2013. Outside of Emma Thompson’s wonderful performance, what else was this movie offering besides pretty costumes and lots of Disney hoopola?
Lee Daniels’ The Butler seemed pegged early summer to sweep into this race, with big box-office and an all-star cast. Are we underestimating this one too? I am.
So I’m torn between the Coen Bros. Inside Llewyn Davis and Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. The latter is praised for Blanchett’s masterful performance as well as Hawkins, but it also has it’s share of detractors and no one likes it as much as Midnight in Paris. However the former, despite a surprise sweep at the National Society of Film Critics, just gets lost in a pile of better received films. Both movies boast Hollywood hotshot helmsman, so either could make it (or not). I’ll go with Allen.
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Cuaron is the man to beat in my book, with McQueen nipping at his heels. Greengrass, too, seems safe (though I really don’t know how much the academy will go for Captain Phillips). DGA nodded Scorsese too, so my absentee will be lovely ol’ David O. Russell- in favor of Alexander Payne. Call me crazy, perhaps I just don’t think the voters will go for Hustle as much as forseen; perhaps they will feel Nebraska is a more intimate film that needed a good guide to generate strong performances; perhaps I just want to see explosions happen on these boards (smiles evilly). But I don’t see the academy’s tight directing branch matching DGA, so I’m going out on a limb and predict Russell to be the snubee.
ACTOR
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
The worst race to call Thursday- so many men to choose from. I still have an inkling Robert Redford will make it; but he, like DiCaprio- was a doomed pretty boy back in the 70s. With only one acting nomination for The Sting, the academy chose to ignore him in such works as Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, The Way We Were and All the President’s Men. Could they give him a guilt nod? I am guessing probably not. His role is not flashy, they’ve honored him with a Directing Oscar and Honorary one to boot. If we’re talking Veteran Slot, that clearly is going to Dern (in a better liked movie). Redford is sitting this one out, it seems. But don’t sneeze at his New York Film Critics win.
Likewise, Tom Hanks, Matthew McConaughey and Chiwetel Ejiofor give commanding performances in big movies that also will see their costars nodded in the supporting actor race. They have such presence right now that it would seem cruel to ignore them.
Which leaves us one slot left. Forest Whitaker made a powerful impression on me with his work in The Butler, but that movie is fading fast (though cough- 3 SAG nominations- cough). Will the academy buy into the Christian Bale scam and throw him a bone so “we can say we gave another Russell film 4 acting nominations?” Or will they actually knight Golden Globe winner Leonardo DiCaprio his (longggg) overdue fourth nomination? If voters had another week, I would say of course. But these ballots were in before the media surge of awards season. And I’m just not sure if he’s good enough to bump Redford. So I’m going on crackling ice and betting he will.
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
I can’t see five flashy performances by five big stars be overlooked for Amy Adams nice but safe performance in American Hustle. Ironically the Queen of Cinema has the least likely chance to make it (Streep) because she missed that crucial (?) BAFTA nod, despite her Globe, BFCA and SAG nods. Adams, who is not a SAG or Actress BFCA nominee- is a BAFTA recipient, but again- did this all happen too late? I’m saying yes.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Nothing exciting about this race- hopefully Leto prevails, since it’s a tour de force. I would love to see Gandolfini remembered, but that felt very much like a SAG moment and nothing more. Fassbender will prevail at the BAFTAs (Leto was a no show)- so could this turn into a two-way race?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
I was going to drop Jennifer Lawrence because I HATED her in this movie, but you’d have to be in flat-out denial to have missed her two big critics wins at New York and National Society of Film, on top of the Golden Globe awards. The It girl of her generation (thank God it’s not Kristen Stewart anymore) is headed for a back-to-back victory if Lupita and Oprah don’t derail her at the SAGs.
Furthermore, I am dropping someone from this list that’s been a repeat at the precursors, but it’s sweet June Squibb- who I see missing to earthier Sally Hawkins. But that’s wishful thinking perhaps.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle, Eric Singer & David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her, Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Bob Nelson
Many will have the Coen Bros. name-checked for Inside Llewyn Davis, but I have a hunch that Borten and Wallack’s in-your-face screenplay will be remembered instead. The heat of the movie on top of the issue it sparks seem too important to ignore. The other four are also good to go, though don’t be stung if Woody Allen is not mentioned (he wasn’t for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, and Cruz still won).
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen and John Ridley
August: Osage County, Tracy Letts
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke & Julie Delpy
Philomena, Steve Coogan & Bill Pope
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
Winter’s script might be too much for older voters, but it’s a slick piece of penmanship. Letts seems on the bridge, but it’s movie that relies on the dialogue to get the story to liven up.
COSTUME DESIGN
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Saving Mr. Banks
I know BJ is a longshot here, but I always welcome contemporary costume designs over period; and besides, this would be much deserved.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
FILM EDITING
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
The Wolf of Wall Street
VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
Iron Man 3
The Hobbit 2
Pacific Rim
Star Trek 2
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Lone Ranger
ORIGINAL SCORE
Gravity, Steven Price
All is Lost, Alex Ebert
The Book Thief, John Williams
Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer
SOUND MIXING
12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
SOUND – EDITNG
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
World War Z
SONG
“Atlas”, from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
“Let it Go”, from Frozen
“The Moon Song”, from Her
“Ordinary Love”, from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
“Young and Beautiful”, from The Great Gatsby
FOREIGN FILM
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Broken Circle Breakdoown
The Grandmaster
Two Lives
ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Monsters University
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Blackfish
The Act of Killing
20 Feet from Stardom
Stories We Tell
The Square
Surprised more people aren't talking about Christian Bale as Lead Actor in AH.
I'm sure Streep will be nominated. Thinking Thompson won't make the cut. I'll be rooting for Judi Dench for the win.
brandz -- i know it seems unthinkable but it's not ENTIRELY without precedent. Her only big omissions really were The Hours (6 women 5 slot) and Manchurian Candidate (Globe nod but mixed reviews). It's a tough call and I'll probably regret it because... Streep. But what kept bugging me about not going for Adams is the heat on that movie PLUS the fact that she keeps getting nominated for performances that have devout fans but aren't universally acclaimed turns either. So it's very very clear that the Academy just loves her. In the same way they love Streep, reflexively... and all the time.
Jason -- the fun thing about oscar prediction when the races are tight like this is that any argument sounds reasonable ;) i like a lot of these.
Paul -- THANK YOU. I was like 'Jason Segel is not fat!'. I was suddenly having nightmares about people calling me obese because i'm merely out of shape and could stand to lose 15 lbs.
As Nathaniel previously pointed out himself, "Jonah Hill, two time Oscar nominee" is unthinkable....I think it's one of the signs of the Apocalypse in the Bible....Therefore, I can't see many Oscar voters opting for him again....Boring as it may be, Hanks (Mr. Banks) and Clooney (Gravity) are more likely.....
Also, I think "American Hustle" will thrill Oscar voters....Christian Bale will be a surprise nominee (like Jacki Weaver) giving them a foursome of acting nominees like "Silver Lining Playbook"). I personally thought Bale was BY FAR the strongest of the foursome. Not sure who he'll push out?
I think Adams and Streep will both get in, at the expense of Sandra Bullock. The most deserving Best Actress of the year is Paulina Garcia from "Gloria", so it's so sad her name isn't in the conversation.
And speaking of Foreign Films, I'm disappointed in Nathaniel's all European lineup (BEL, DEN, GER, HUN, ITA)....That hasn't happened since 1996 (or 1987 if you don't count Georgia as European). Hungary's "The Notebook" may be about children during WWII, but it has gotten mostly bad reviews and will surely be replaced by the gorgeous Weinstein/Scorsese-backed "The Grandmaster" or Oscar nominee Hany Abu Assad's thrilling "Omar".
Exciting!
@Paul&Nathaniel: sorry, he just came to my mind while I was at it. Now I feel kind of bad, because you're probably right, and I don't wanna be that person who calls everybody fat who doesn't fit the supposedly perfect picture. I mean, if I'm not imagining things some people have called out Jennifer Lawrence for not being thin as a stick (not here, of course!), and that puts me somewhere between angry and puzzled, too.
@A.D. LOL at "I think it's one of the signs of the Apocalypse in the Bible...." referring to the thought of Jonah Hill two-time Oscar nominee. Seeing it like that, it probably will happen. I've seen other signs that the Apocalypse can't be so far...
Now looking forward to the nominations in a few hours, and then to some more Film Bitch Awards soon hopefully.
Hoping Gerwig gets in too!
Nicely done Nathaniel!!! Another year, and you nailed all of the best picture nominees!
Sadly, no Short Term 12 or Frances Ha nominations, but hey. Not bad overall!
Apocalypse now...