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« Interviews, Travel | Main | The Year of the Hero. And Other Links »
Tuesday
Jan142014

Final Oscar Nom Predictions: Part 1

The time has come! 

I'm never sure I should say this out loud as an Oscar pundit of some degree of reknown but I love being wrong. That generally means the film year is still chalk full of films and performances people are still considering. As well they should. It also means that, try as they might to game the system, the distributors who shove everything into a three week window of releasing and the abundant precursor bodies that aim to predict future Oscar nominations rather than really thinking about what they loved most in an entire film year, can't really control it. The Academy will do as the Academy does. And thank god lest all joy be stamped out of the process through ruthless homogeny (Jared Leto again? Must we?! And I like Jared Leto in that movie, despite that tone deaf Globe acceptance speech) 

So herewith my best guesses as to what the shortlists will look like come Thursday morning... and my apologies for the late at night no sleep train of thought messiness to follow... I'm working through the night before my plane to Los Angeles...

BEST PICTURE
Locks: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and Captain Phillips will be fighting for the statue that matters most and they're currently running in probably that order.
If there were only five: that last spot would be a bloody battle between Dallas Buyers ClubThe Wolf of Wall Street and Nebraska, three films which with distinctly different temperaments though all three are very concerned with merciless socioeconomic systems. As it is, though, I think all three are safe... which makes seven best picture nominees.
Expanded Field: From there it gets cloudier. SAG suggests The Butler. PGA rallied for  Saving Mr Banks and Blue Jasmine. The Globes liked Her and BAFTA joins them in loving Philomena. Critics are gaga for Inside Llewyn Davis. And so on... I'm guessing we get 8 nominees this year and that the Picture lineup ends with the unbuzzy Philomena (not exactly an internet sensation but different crowds, you know?) but if we stay locked up at 9 nominations, which we've had the past two years, make room for hipster Her (which appeals to the type of people who write about movies and thus gets talked up more).

BEST DIRECTOR
Locks: Cuaron, McQueen, Greengrass, Russell... though last year's shockeroos in this category suggest that no one is truly safe. 
But Who Gets The Last Spot?  The Globes suggest Payne and the DGA wants what it often wants: Scorsese. Scorsese is highly probable --he also scored with BAFTA -- and you absolutely shouldn't bet against him but i'm going for the no guts no glory factor. I'm guessing just enough people were turned off by Wall Street, which was under constant fire during voting (which can work for you or against you but who knows which it did?). I want to say something crazy like Jean Marc Vallee or JC Chandor just so I have bragging rights but I think i"m going to guess Spike Jonze... purely on the anecdotal evidence that Darren Aronofsky will be voting for him

BEST ACTOR
Locks: Dern, DiCaprio, Ejiofor, Hanks, McConaughey, Redford, McConaughey
OH MY GOD THAT'S SIX PEOPLE AND MY BRAIN IS GOING TO EXPLODE. I keep changing my mind about which of these six men isn't going to make it and literally ANY of them seem both possible and unthinkable as The Snubbee. Statistically speaking DiCaprio is probably running seventh or eighth (SAG went for Whitaker and the BFCA went for both Bale and Isaac ahead of him) but his prospects were rising during voting as that BAFTA nod suggests and he seems like a very real threat to me... but then who gets the golden boot in their hard-working ass? I kept flipping between Redford and McConaughey but given the shocking (to me at least) strength that the somewhat standard Dallas Buyer's Club has shown across the board at guilds, it became Redford. Leo or Bob? Both are blonde handsome true movie stars who can come across as a bit above it (they're not going to beg you for your vote). One is a gargantuan celebrity to anyone fortysomething or younger and the other a gargantuan movie star to anyone fortysomething or older. I've noticed in my online travels that there are sizeable huge swaths of younger people out there that don't have any connection to Robert Redford but that shouldn't fool them into thinking nobody else. His cinematic legacy is rich from the 60s classics and on through the enormous influence of Sundance. The question is really whether Bruce Dern is hogging all the attention for legacy votes, whether voters liked All is Lost, and whether all the Wolf of Wall Street controversies helped or hurt DiCaprio. My biggest hesitation in predicting Leo is essentially that BFCA snub. The BFCA, to which I belong, really has made a mess of the voting adding additional categories without actually renaming the traditional one. So essentially they have a traditional Best Actor category that is not labelled as "drama" and wherein comic performance sometimes appear and they've added a Best Actor in a Comedy category without changing the original category to Drama. So is it telling that Leo wasn't strong enough to compete in the traditional category from a group that had clearly seen the movie given its nominations elsewhere? 

a perfect illustration for a meryl snub? Actresses dogpiling on her!BEST ACTRESS
Locks: Blanchett, Bullock, Thompson, Dench
Fifth Slot Madness: Who'da thunk that Meryl Streep could possibly be the odd woman out for a role as mammoth as Violet Weston? And yet here we are and the knives seem to be out (at least on the internet) and everyone has been talking about Amy Adams and American Hustle is inarguably way more popular than August: Osage County.  So I'm guessing it's Adams who is, lest we forget, on part with Meryl (at least lately) in the Academy's willingness to scribble her name down reflexively. I saw all of this with a tear in my eye for Brie Larson and Adele Exarchopoulus, both of whom never quite took as contenders despite being so damn good in films that critics and media types seemed to feel genuinely passionate about... at least until they had to start predicting Oscars voting habits voting for their own year end prizes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Locks: Jennifer, June, Lupita
Probable: Julia Roberts... unless voters, opt out on Meryl and realize they COULD, you know, put Julia where she belongs in leading
Fifth Slot Battle: But it's probably between Oprah Winfrey and Sally Hawkins  and my guess is that The Butler won't quite tank as hard as the internet is thinking/hoping with Oscar voters. They are, don't forget, willing snubbers of the great Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky *sniffle*) and major Oprah fans giving her an Honorary despite a scant filmography (sure sure it was for humanitarian work, but it's still a film-community honor given to someone with a scant filmography).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Locks: Barkhad Abdi, Jared Leto
Probable: Michael Fassbender
With Two Spots To Be Divvied Up Among: Bradley Cooper, Daniel Brühl, Jonah Hill or James Gandolfini. 

But as I've been saying all year, posthumous nominations are quite rare so I think Gandolfini is the easiest to cut but from there it gets tricky. Daniel Brühl has all the precursors and leading roles have an obvious edge when they're competing for supporting slots (so unjust!) but he's a low profile actor, however talented, and few people are  talking about the film. Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill -- does the category really have room for two amoral hyena types? It's possible that all three could make it in and push the non-campaigning Michael Fassbender out, but that'd be a real shame. As for now I'm thinking that Wolf of Wall Street has to show somewhere and in this relatively quiet category might be its best shot outside of Picture. 

And, okay, maybe I should get at least two hours of sleep before LA...

ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY & SHORTS
FOREIGN FILM
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You should also check out the final thoughts from the Gurus of Gold

But clearly in 2014 I have to up my game. Now people are even singing their Oscar predictions.

I'm not going to do that unless you all buy ear plugs but I'll step it up a notch for 2014. I will. I will. I'll explain the hows and whys. Pinky swear. Stick around.

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Reader Comments (81)

I've had this odd feeling ever since Sunday that Sarah Paulson is gonna make it over Roberts. I think it was the last minute rally for 12 Years at the Globes. Everyone in the room just seemed so happy for everyone on that stage, and I loved her helping McQueen with his thanks. I guess it's wishful thinking, but I think Orpah is safer than Roberts, and Paulson is stealing that 5th spot.

January 14, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterJS

JS, please let this happen.

January 14, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

It's kind of crazy that when The Butler came out it seemed like the supporting actress award was all wrapped up for Oprah and now its not even a sure thing nomination.

I hope that Roberts doesn't get the nomination. I haven't seen the film but I know hers is a leading role and that's just wrong. It might have cost Bette Davis the Oscar back in the 50's to have Anne Baxter compete head to head but at least Anne had the integrity to not go along with that dubious practice and insist on being properly placed. I wish more actors and actresses would follow her lead

January 14, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterjoel6

I'm going Spike Jonze too! We'll be bragging rights buddies come Thursday.

January 14, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterAmir

js - little would thrill me more but i can't see it.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I wonder which of these five types of shock will happen (and at least one will happen, seems it did the last few years where there were always some jaw dropping moments):
(1) The Affleck-Bigelow shock: Someone thought to be locked but missing the cut
(2) The Kate-Winslet-The-Reader shock: This can only truly be happened to Julia Roberts if she gets nominated
(3) The Gary-Oldman-Tinker-Tailor shock: Someone came out of nowhere and grab the fifth spot
(4) The Norbit shock: Which from a link you shared previously on "please don't nominate these movies", it seems like Bad Grandpa could be an Oscar nominee
(5) The Cloud-Atlas shock: I admit I love Cloud Atlas and to see it getting zero nomination was hurtful, not even music or visual. This year I thought if this happen again the only possibility is to Wolf of Wall Street where it gets zero love not even for Scorsese or DiCaprio.

What do you think, Nathaniel? Let's put some risk into your nomination, like you always have at least one in the past years. Or did you already count the Spike Jonze prediction as the risk?

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterPJ

Call me nutty but why is everybody so sure Dern is a lock? He hasn't won anything big, right? And lost the comedy GG to Leo. I also get the sense that film is cooling, certainly never getting the internet's attention like 12 Years or Gravity. So I think he could be out, especially since everybody thinks he'll be a lock and may direct their #1 votes elsewhere.

And maybe Oscar Isaac could get in too, but that's clearly wishful thinking. And then let's throw Sarah Paulson in there too!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMarsha Mason

@Marsha: I am also questioning Dern and maybe even Jared Leto. There are ALWAYS "locks" who miss out in the male acting categories. I am thinking in particular of the Paul Giamatti snub for Sideways (another Payne movie more loved by critics than audiences) and the snubs for Dennis Quaid in Far From Heaven and Albert Brooks in Drive -- two supporting actors who seemed to be frontrunners for the gold then weren't even nominated.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterDusty

I think Clooney in supporting is the big surprise. I also think Adams takes the 5th slot over Meryl. Dern in, Redford out. Oprah in but not sure at who's expense.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterHenry

Streep in- not Adams..

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterJamie

As far as "shocking" snubs and surprises go, I'm predicting:

IN
Philomena, Saving Mr Banks in the 7th & 8th positions
Jonze, Scorsese
DiCaprio
Adams
Gandolfini, Cooper
ScarJo

OUT
Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club in the 9th & 10th positions
Greengrass, Payne
Redford
Streep
Brühl, Hanks, Hill, Forte
Oprah

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

I have WOWS out of my Best Picture predictions as well. I have Blue Jasmine in (this is my no guts no glory pick.)

I have Mery out (i resisted to this idea, but I now see it happening easily), Adams in (though in my fantasies, Gerwig makes a shocker.)

For actors, Redford out, Leo in along with Dern, MM, TH and Ejiofor. Dern appears to have a large amount of people within the Academy supporting him, so it will be a shock to see him missing.

Supporting Actor: Abdi, Bruhl, Fassbender, Hill and Leto. (Another fantasy here is Will Forte, but I don't dare predicting him.)

Supp. Actress: This is where I let my fantasies run wild: Sally Hawkins, Jennifer Lawrence, Lupita Nyong'o, Octavia Spencer and June Squibb. Yes, Oprah and Roberts out.

Director: Same as you, Nat. Jonze all the way.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterJones

Oh god, now with everyone talking about Sarah Paulson getting in, I desperately want it to happen! I just want some shock with supporting actress ... Sarah, Sally, Octavia. And hopefully at the expense of Julia since she's actually a lead. I'd say Jennifer but that's just because I'm mad at the fact that she's beating Lupita and there's no chance of her getting snubbed anyway.

I also have a slight feeling that Blue is the Warmest Color will get a Best Picture nod but I'm most likely wrong. :p

And Young & Beautiful better be nominated for Original Song.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip H.

Also...

I think Adams will get in for Actress, but I'd love a real shocker of Julia Louis-Dreyfus sneaking in :p

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip H.

You have McConaughey's name repeated in your list of seven actors vying for a spot, and totally forgetting about spoiler Phoenix.


Oprah's Jean Hersholt Oscar seems controversial on paper because she's a television personality first, but the cold reality is, Oprah is less than a handful of black women that Hollywood respects. I think the point was honoring a woman of color, and the only consensus agreement was Oprah. That says more about Hollywood than Oprah's friends in the Academy kissing her ass.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

Rooting for Her, Blue Jasmine and Dallas Buyers Club getting in

Spike Jonze is most def getting a directors nod

I hoping for a shocker like Brie Larson/ Adele or Julia Roberts in lead

Meryl is out. So is Oprah and Tom Hanks in lead I hope

Joaquin Phoenix in lead and hopefully Bale as well. So McConaughey, Ejiofor, Bale, DiCaprio and Phoenix for me

A real shocker would be Scarlet Johansson in supporting. My dream team would be Lupita, ScarJo, JLaw, Sally and Sarah. Maybe Leah could sneak in

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterManuel

I have no other qualms except for best supporting actress where I hope to see Sally Hawkins nudge Oprah out of the list. Having watched both performances, there's no doubt in my mind Sally is the more worthy nominee.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterJans

Looking at all the precursors that have happened...the films that seem vulnerable (to me) are August: Osage County, Saving Mr. Banks, Lee Daniels' The Butler, and All is Lost.

All of them had high hopes and buzz earlier in this season and all seem to have faded. I don't think any of them will receive best picture nominations (although a few seem to think Saving Mr. Banks is safe after the PGA nod), but it gets me to wonder if the actors and actresses in those films are safe as well?

Obviously sometimes actors/actresses make it in regardless of the film's buzz and reception (Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age and Angelina Jolie in Changeling come to mind), but with the dearth of competition this year, I'm wondering if there could be some Keisha Castle-Hughes/Michael Shannon type shockers.

If anything, I could see someone like Joaquin Phoenix score a surprise nod for Her, considering it was peaking at the exact right time and he's a three-time nominee. Do I dare say even Scarlett Johansson (I doubt it, but it's worth considering). Steven Spielberg was a huge fan of Blue is the Warmest Color...could he have used his considerable influence in the Academy for a nod for Adele Exarchopoulos?

I would say out of best actress, Blanchett, Bullock, and Dench are locked and loaded. Thompson is likely, but due to the muted response of her film I wouldn't say she's a lock. Ditto with Meryl Streep. And honestly, like others have stated, Alexander Payne performances are not unanimously embraced by the Academy...Shailene Woodley, Reese Witherspoon, and Paul Giamatti were passed over. So I wouldn't ink in Squibb and Dern, as likely as they seem. And judging by the Bigelow/Affleck/Hooper snubs last year, best director is a dangerous category to predict. So excited for Thursday!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

I know this is insane but I've got a feeling that Amy will be nominated in supporting. Amy Adams is THE supporting actress. Furthermore, AH is an ensemble, there's other leads and supporting performances that steal. It'd only be as insane as Julia Roberts being supporting, which we've all accepted.

Actress - Cate, Sandra, Emma, Judi, Meryl
Supp Actress - Jennifer, Lupita, June, Amy, Julia

I'll undoubtedly be wrong but if I'm right I'm a genius/god.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterKeegan

I LOVE the idea of Spike Jonze getting in that 5th spot for Director. Ditto for Sarah Paulson in Supporting Actress.

I've got two no-guts-no-glory predictions because they're way more fun to do than running down who may or may not join the boy's club in Original Score~

1) A random-ass nomination that makes sense after the fact in the form of Margot Robbie in Wolf of Wall Street. The film was hitting when the ballots were getting filled, she's the sole female in that group of men, Scorsese supporting turn, breakthrough, hot young thing, good reviews.

2) TWC gets completely shut out. No Julia, No Butler, No Oprah, No Fruitvale, No August. Nothing. They dropped the ball on August with the release and it underwhelmed, Fruitvale was too long ago and The Butler has too many detractors. Plus, the nods that seem possible are in those 5th spots and could easily be overturned.

Eat it.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMark The First

With the confusion over the 5th director slot, I'm thinking Stephen Frears makes it in. I just want that on the record now :)

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterThe Jack

Oprah has made it in with SAG and BAFTA , I can't see her missing out. Maybe Julia will miss out so we end up with Lupita, June, Jennifer, Sally and Oprah? I am still hoping for a Jacki Weaver in SLP type surprise nomination, those are always so exciting.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterRami

Is Meryl really out or are we being sensationalist here?

If it's true that the Academy's voting ended on January 8th how does Adams' Golden Globe win say anything at all? Or Leo's for that matter. Both are gorgeous and exceptionally popular actors under 40 who won some Globes.

Yes, Adams got the BAFTA nomination, but August: Osage County has not even been released in the UK yet.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

This is rather random-- recently, there's been a couple of instances with the Emmy Awards having expanded categories (like last year in Best Actress Drama). Would that ever happen with the Oscars, or are there stricter rules that don't allow for expanded acting fields? I guess I'm looking at Best Actor in particular....

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterLily

lily - I was thinking about that the other day... is it possible to have six nominees, if 5th place is a tie? that would be a nice shocker!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered Commentermarcelo

@JS Your wishful thinking is exactly my wishful thinking

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterth

lily & marcelo - wow I wonder what the rules state to do if the fifth place nominee is tied with someone else?

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterDave

EAT THE FISH BITCH!!!

LOL

Sorry, but it would be a complete travesty if Meryl and Julia don't get nominated for August: Osage County. Yes, the film was uneven.. but c'mon, any one who has ACTUALLY WATCHED the film can't possibly deny either one of them, and not place them in the top 3 in their respective categories. It is one of Meryl's greatest creations, and her best work since The Devil Wears Prada, and undeniable Julia Roberts' best work since Erin Brockovich.

If it was entirely up to me, Judi Dench's subtle beautiful work would just miss the top 5, Bullock's underwhelming work is out, Amy Adams- who is the only one in the film who completely missed the light comedic tone of the film- is out, and the top 5 would look like this:

BLANCHETT
STREEP
ROBERTS
LARSON
THOMPSON

YES, Roberts deserved to be placed in the Lead Category- because she was even more of a lead in her film than the underwhelming Amy Adams was in hers (the film totally forgets about her when Jennifer Lawrence enters the picture, for crying out loud!)

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMike

Oh man, JS, you read my mind. I also think the directors branch will do something nearly as crazy as last year.

I am of the mind that Captain Phillips will under-perform in spectacular fashion. No Greengrass, no Hanks, and maybe not even Abdi. I just think it will fall by the waist side because it is not Sony's #1 priority. It might get sound nods but I think that might be it. I think WB's Her will reap the benefits from that.

Keegan- Unless Amy Adams is nominated for Her, the branch is not going to swap her into Supporting when she has been campaigned as Lead. Sony ain't playing no Weinstein games.

Her will do surprisingly well. I do see ScarJo as a possibility for supporting.

I think Nebraska will do alright but will over-perform because it will get 3 acting nods but 2/3 are assuredly fillers.

Not even going to tempt selected all of the Best Picture nominees or how many there will actually be.

Director
Russell
Cuaron
Jonze
McQueen
Scorsese

Actress
Adams
Blanchett
Exarchopoulos
Bullock
Dench

Actor
Ejiofor
Dern
McConaughey
DiCaprio
Phoenix

Supporting Actor
Leto
Fassbender
Forte
Gandolfini
Cooper

Supporting Actress
Nyong'o
Paulson
Lawrence
Squibb
Johansson

Sticking to it.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterCMG

I really hope Roberts is not nominated. She was by far the worst part of August. I didn't like her performance at all. She was so one-note and the fish scene was embarassing. I wouldn't mind if Streep is nominated, though. But I do hope the Academy gives the fifth spot to someone new like Brie Larson, though it's very unlikely to happen.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterSad man

Because of the rules and the way ballots are counted, there can only be five nominees. NO ties. Sorry, guys.

And Mike: Sometimes your best just ain't good enough. ;-)

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Payne should be in here, but I think Scorsese is going to steal his spot. Damn him!!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

Interesting predictions, Nat. I agree with most, but not everything.

PICTURE: I agree with your eight choices, but I think that there will be nine, and the ninth will be Her.

DIRECTOR: I agree with your four locks. For the fifth, I think Scorsese will get in, though I'd prefer Payne.

BEST ACTOR: I do see DiCaprio bumping Redford, so my choices are Dern, DiCaprio, Ejiofor, Hanks and McConaughey.

BEST ACTRESS: I agree that Blanchett, Bullock and Dench are locks, and I think Adams is getting in, but I'm not entirely certain which of Thompson and Streep gets bumped. Everybody's saying Streep, but Thompson wasn't marvelous in a film which itself wasn't marvelous.... I guess it depends on how hard Harvey is working his ways.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: I do agree with your three locks/probable. I'm wondering about Daniel Brühl, though, since Rush didn't make that big of a splash in North America. (Brühl gave as good a performance in The Fifth Estate, and he did it without all that makeup.) I feel that Bradley Cooper will get in, which leaves the fifth slot up for grabs between Gandolfini and (no guts, no glory) Will Forte. (No category fraud here: Nebraska is the story of Woody's dream. Forte's David enables Woody's journey to get the million bucks, and enablers are never lead.)

And I'll throw up in my mouth more than a little if Jonah Hill gets a nomination!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I agree with your locks; I think Julia Roberts is in, and I'm giving the fifth slot to Sally Hawkins.

Have fun in L.A.!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterBill_the_Bear

Is Margo Martindale not at all in the running for supporting actress? I thought she was sort of being talked up a while back, but I haven't been following this that closely. She was easily my favorite member of the August: Osage County cast. Which I realize means nothing, especially if the Weinsteins are pushing Julia Roberts in the category (fraudulently, so so fraudulently), but still - Martindale deserves a nod. So does Chris Cooper, for that matter!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterRoark

I'm hoping small. I'd like Stoker to get in for score or song or sound. Barring that, any nomination for Short Term 12 or Frances Ha will make me happy. Barring that, Gravity being nominated all over the place (screw it, nominate Clooney and costumes for all I care) because I want to hitch onto a genre film at the Oscars this year and Stoker is basically a non-starter.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterRobert G

Hoping for the Weinsteins to crash and burn. It's not personal, but they're hogging all important spaces in actress categories that could be filled by performances I actually adore.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterTB

A lot of wishful thinking here.

A nom for Margot Robbie would be truly pathetic - if she couldn't even improvise a simple intro to her film at the Globes, she sure doesn't deserve an Oscar nom over Hawkins, Martindale, Spencer or probably a dozen others.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Robert G-

LOL @ Gravity in Best Costume Design.

Could you imagine the uproar? the black booty shorts and that gray sports bra tank.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterDave

I'm still not sure how Daniel Bruhl is such a lock, but that may just be my own bias since I have no interest in the film. Also, I think Cooper has a better shot at a nomination than Hill.

As for Best Supporting Actress, I'm hoping Hawkins can slide in there but I'm not confident she will. Paulson would be another pleasant surprise, although that would make it even harder for Lupita to actually win due to vote-splitting.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterthefilmjunkie

" It's possible that all three could make it in and push the non-campaigning Michael Fassbender out, but that'd be a real shame."

Pun intended?

Anyway, I think the predictions I'm making that might fall into the "no guts, no glory" zone are August: Osage County getting completely shut out (yes, I'm going for Adams and Hawkins in their respective categories, even if I don't feel confident about the latter) and American Hustle being snubbed for Best Editing (not a "major" category, but certainly major in terms of Best Picture chances). Part of me thinks Inside Llewyn Davis might end up with just a lone nomination for Best Cinematography, but I'm keeping it in my lineups for Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing just because I'm hoping there's still some love for it.

Something I *almost* predicted was that it would be Thompson, not Streep, who would be snubbed in favor of Amy Adams getting in. But I ultimately didn't see enough reason to predict that.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterEdwin

Suzanne I love your reasoning it has nothing to do with her performance in the film. Just like most nominations / snubs :-))

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterRami

The tallying system for the nominations is so very complex that I don't think there's the possibility of a tie for the fifth spot. That I know of, it's never happened in the nominations.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

To answer a question Marsha Mason asked, Dern won the LA Film Critics Best Actor award and also best actor from NBR, so it's not like he hasn't won anything "big." Plus he's been campaigning tirelessly, he has the "narrative" for a nomination (character actor lands lead actor Oscar nod in his golden years), and Jack Nicholson calls him "Dernsie," for Christ's sake. I think Dern is in.

The Redford vs. Leo and Streep vs. Adams choices are driving me batty, though. Everyone seems so convinced it will be DiCaprio and Adams, but I'm not so sure.

I also want to predict Jonze for a director nod. Not sure who to bump from the list, though. Scorcese? Is that wise?

I'd love for Sarah Paulson to get nominated but I highly doubt she will. If she does, though, it would surely indicate that 12 Years is winning BP. A surprise nomination for George Clooney would probably indicate a BP win for Gravity (which seems absurd to me...what actors would be ranking George Clooney in Gravity as #1 on their ballots as the best supporting male performance of the year?)

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterThe Real Robert A.

Billy the Bear, ITA. What world are we in if Jonah Hill is a two-time Oscar nominee! Holy shit!

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

Rami, very little if the reasoning in this thread has to do with actual performances. And actors should be able to improvise. I can just imagine if that were Lawrence or, heaven forbid, Streep. But she's the it girl of the moment cast by The Great Marty so hey, it's okay. I'm sure she has a Mastroantino-like career ahead of her if she's lucky.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Double nom for Amy Adams! Woo Hoo!

Rooting for Julianne Nicholson and Chris Cooper too.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMB76

Maybe somebody already mentioned this, but let's not forget that the SAG did NOT nominate Amy Adams! I wouldn't count Streep out. And there's no way Roberts is getting in (as supporting) if Streep does not. That is, unless they nominate Roberts in the lead category and not Streep.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

Still holding out hope for Her miracle to the tune of 7-8 noms, but it's unlikely. I'll be satisfied if it cracks the BP lineup.

Supporting Actor is so murky after the top 3. My no guts, no glory is John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterSawyer

Bill_the_Bear: So, he's like Walken in Batman Returns?

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

I just didn't feel like going along with the pack this year. My supporting actress category is way out there: http://singingcritic.com/blog/?p=6960. I'm predicting that Streep still makes it in, but Adams gets a consolation prize by being nominated in Supporting for Her, knocking out Julia Roberts.

I'm also going with 10 Best Picture nominees, including the five usual suspects, plus an odd choice like Frozen and the given-up-for-dead Saving Mr. Banks.

We shall see. I don't have to be right (and I probably won't be) but I had fun thinking outside of the box.

January 15, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterJonathan Lewis

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