The New Best Actress Field. Who Will Be Nominated?
Monday, May 4, 2015 at 8:30PM We saved the best for last. The complete April Foolish Oscar Predictions are up with the Best Actress chart finally complete. As is usual for this beleagured actress psychic, once I've thrown the first charts up in all categories I immediately feel a tidal wave of "no, no, that's all wrong!" though the years have proven me relatively adept at first wave guesswork. At least comparatively speaking.
Which next generation Oscar darling will rise?
After fixing up a chart that included 3 older women who happen to be 3 of the 4 most recent winners (Julianne Moore, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep) I immediately realized that this surely could not come to pass and regretted hitting publish. But you have to get the first wave predictions up eventually, so published it stayed. And a truth: everyone is going to be wrong this year because it looks highly competitive with multiple promising leading roles for women.
Recognizing the over 40s in Best Actress has never been AMPAS's strong suit so surely the tide will turn sharply this year or next after so many older winners and even a year with the oldest lineup of all time in terms of nominees in this category (2013). Perhaps this year's lineup will include none of those darlings and skew very young: Saoirse Ronan, Carey Mulligan, Ellen Page, Alicia Vikander (with 8 movies opening something is going to stick), and Jennifer Lawrence (again)... though I personally hold out hope that Lily Tomlin's bravura turn in Grandma can win some "career tribute" style press and make a play for her second nomination 40 years after her first for Nashville.
Or maybe they'll finally make room for my riskiest hunch, Emily Blunt and give her her first nomination at 32 years of age for playing a young FBI agent up against a swarm of dangerous men. Shades of Jodie Foster in Silence of the Lambs anyone?
Please do check out the chart and let's get busy discussing!
Rooney: Do you think we'll be nominated again, Cate?
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Reader Comments (66)
Finally.
Amen. It's Emily's time at last, I can only pray. Isn't it weird she hasn't been nominated yet?
Nothing to complain about actually. Blanchett, Streep, and Lawrence (I hate the world we live in) are pretty secure on paper.
Come on Rampling and Tomlin! We already know they've been raved so i'm hoping for some bad juju against their competition.
Did you guys hear that Julianne Moore won an Oscar retroactively for her role in Boogie Nights?
That's pretty cool
I'm thinking Lawrence/Blanchett/Mulligan/Rampling/Blunt right now. The win coming down between Mulligan and Rampling, who I hope will be the critical push after a great Berlin start.
It's indeed foolish to bet against Streep but it's a summer release this time and the field is stacked. I have no faith in Freeheld.
Just a heads up, Sally Field is a 2016 contender as Roadshow won't release her movie this year. And Freeheld already has a release date of October 2nd.
i would love to see Maggie Smith nominated again. I loved the Trailer of "The Lady in the Van" - i wonder, is this the second part of Little Miss Sunshine? It seems to be the same Van? Little Miss Sunshine is now homeless. Let's nominate her, Maggie is brilliant.
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Meryl Strrep - Ricki & the Flash
Lily Tomlin - Grandma
Maggie Smith - The Lady in the Van
(Runner Up's: Ellen Page, Carey Mulligan) i hope this year will be better! Greetings from nassau!!
I'm going to be super establishment and say it's Blanchett//Cotillard/Lawrence/Moore/Streep. But of course anything can happen. At this point last year Still Alice just wrapped shooting. I'm betting Lawrence will drop first. And kinda hoping.
This year, I mostly just hope that there won't be another bullsh*t Jennifer Lawrence nomination for a David O. Russell joint. I appreciate Lawrence and Russell separately, but she was about a decade too young for Silver Linings Playbook (though that movie wasn't good anyway) and maybe even two decades too young for American Hustle. Cameron Diaz is someone who might've aced that role and who's a big star, if that was a prerequisite. Lawrence wasn't at all believable as a mother of that boy in Hustle, and now she's playing a thirtysomething with *three* children in Joy?
If Our Brand is in Crisis would come out this year, then the last 8 winners would have been in contention (with the 9th, Helen Mirren, in possible supporting). Still could very well be a familiar field.
I have a feeling Lawrence and Streep both end up missing this year-fatigue and all that finally sets in and they miss on likely nominees. My gut is saying: Moore/Blunt/Ronan/Blanchett/Mulligan as a result, with Mulligan winning in a surprise Best Picture nominee.
I also like your top 5, even though it's May. All very strong actresses. Could (should) be a great Oscar year. The only contender I doubt is JLaw. Joy feels Hallmark movie and the Academy is really not into DOR at the moment, due to his poor treatment of actors like Amy Adams and crew members. If Rickie is a hit, I am feeling Meryl for 20 noms, a win, and then she's no longer nominated. But maybe it will a newbie? Exciting year for women. Merci.
Has anyone heard or seen anything concrete about the Scottish play? On stage (depending on the adaptation), Lady M is the kind of role that can slip between the cracks of Lead and Supporting, which makes me doubt Cotillard's chances.
I doubt Ronan is going to happen. She has never been their favorite and this doesn't really seem like an Oscar film at all and, unlike Blunt, she doesn't really have the career momentum or star power either. She is your longshot/wishful thinking horse in this lineup.
@Crystal Balls --> DOR treated Amy Adams poorly? I hadn't heard that story.
Academy isn't into David O. Russell? What? His Fighter / Silver Linings Playbook / American Hustle run is probably one of the most successful consecutive Oscar runs ever for a director. Hustle didn't win anything, eh. They're into him right now. Won't last forever, but one or two more films-- probably? I mean, right?
And Anonny-- Saoirse Ronan has never been the Academy's favorite? What other role could she have plausibly been nominated for? Or are you saying she should have won for Atonement? I just don't think we have any evidence as to whether she'll be an Academy favorite or not -- I mean, should she have snagged a nom for Hanna? The Lovely Bones? The roles haven't been there. (As they also aren't/weren't there for Breslin, or either Fanning. There's not a lot of Oscar bait for teenagers.)
I, too, have my fingers crossed for Rampling - she might fit their "never been nominated legend" mold so that will work in her favor. Then again, Tomlin is also similarly overlooked, so who knows?
Blanchett in a Todd Haynes film based on a Highsmith novel that tells a beautiful love story. Nothing new to add. This still RULES my life.
I don't think blunt is happening (or will ever happen, there's something "not special" about her).
I'm hoping "joy" is good, the synopsis describing it as a story of women across four generations sounds exciting (and the female cast is fantastic).
Amy Adams mistreatment by DOR was leaked in Sony emails. Liam Hemsworth not allowed to Joy set for obvious control reasons. DOR is a jerk. Some pics of JLaw were taken off HW's phone, but I'm not one to gossip.
Y'all are seriously underestimating Carey Mulligan
@Jan - I am with you concerning Lawrence, I count myself as a fan, I love her in "The Hunger Games", but I really wish they would stop casting her in parts for older women.
I really hope that Mulligan, Blunt, and Ronan have a serious chance. My betting money is on Mulligan, because I think "Suffragette" is going to be a hit.
CBC. Who is HW???
you CRAZY for not predicting Lawrence. Crazy i tell you
Blanchett, Saoirse, Cotillard, Blunt
This is going to be Carey Mulligan's year. She's gotten raves for Skylight and is a strong, strong contender to win the Tony. She's getting terrific reviews for Far From the Madding Crowd and that looks to be a solid arthouse hit. The teaser for Suffragette looks promising and with that incredible cast + still timely political content, I think she's a huge threat this year.
at this point only Cate Blanchett seems like a sure thing. After that maybe Carey Mulligan. After that, it's a free for all.
I'm delighted by the huge Internet interest in Carol. Maybe it's going to be a big hit if the release isn't too drawn out. People loose interest in pictures they've been hearing about for ages, but that never seem to come to local cinemas. The thing about Blanchett though is that she had a tendency to indirectly insult people she talked to during her last campaign. The momentum of Blue Jasmine was overwhelming, but they may decide that she's had enough for now.
Hollywood has a new fascination with Cotillard. That, and the complexity of the role, will help her get nominated if the movie develops a fan base.
There is a good chance that an African-American or Hispanic actress will prevail.
And what about Dame Maggie Smith for Lady In the van? The film has been rescheduled to be released on Christmas Day.
I've seen the trailer -and there is obviously a lot of confidence that she has a chance.
Meryl - no matter how much I love and respect her - the best chance she has is a Supporting nod for Suffragette. And we have already seen what a tight race that is already shaping up to be.
If only Glenn Close had a film this year - she'd be a shoo in. Could they possibly pass up on giving her a gong on her SEVENTH nomination???
Nathaniel - totally disagree with your comment about every film Meryl makes gets a nomination.
The Best Actress and supporting actress is looking really competitive this year.
I strongly believe Meryl will NOT be nominated again.
Well her 'almost - standing ovation' at Patricia Arquettes award this year would have pissed a LOT of rightwing conservative members of the Academy.
Paul Outlaw -- that is a seriously good point about Lady MacBeth. But I think it's one of those possibly low screentime roles that everyone will still think of as a lead because a) it is and b) it's such a famous role and c) a leading actress is playing it.
Bette -- regarding the racial diversity -- how so? There has to be a film and a role that does some of the work. I couldn't see anyone on the horizon for that unless Gugu Mbatha-Raw's concussion role is somehow huge (i doubt it with Will Smith leading) or Zoe Saldana's Nina biopic is somehow not a small picture and snagged by a major distributor
Also:. they never gave a competitive statue to Peter O'Toole or Richard Burton despite more noms than Glenn Glose
CBC & Mark - i dont know who HW is either *shrugs*
Johnny -- i know. isn't that amazing? But I believe the actual statement was "retroactively for Boogie Nights, Far From Heaven and [safe]" ;)
The only women I see close to. Shoo-ins, are Tomlin and Mulligan. I think it is Tomlin's to lose.
As of now I feel
Blanchett is way out ahead because of the Director
Mulligan important film all the fuss by Patty and Cate regarding women in the industry says to me the perfect role and the perfect actress to get a 2nd nomination for a worthy film with a classy cast
Streep like Nat says never ever discount her
TomlinI think she gets the Sissy/Ellen comeback nod
Ronan it's time for a great period weepie and she has shown masses of promise early on.
Ps; I admire your nerve at trying to pull nominations out your ass half a year in advance. So much can happen between then and now.
No way is Lawrence less likely to be nominated than Blunt!!!
HW is Harvey wWeinstein.
Bette Streep Nat doesn't say she is nominated everytime but when she has a lead role you cannot discount from your top 5 predictions looking at recent history she still got in for ITW and AOC when people said she's miss,look at the film,the role,the director all point to a great film and Streep singing in most films is always a plus.
What about Blythe Danner? She has Sundance buzz from I'll See You in My Dreams and surely has a better narrative than some of the longshots you listed (McCarthy?).
Reassured to know that HW was not television's Henry Winkler.
By the way, Vikander truly is Kinsey-score-alteringly attractive.
Harvey Weinstein is not going to let Marion Cotillard slip through the cracks as Lady MacBeth. He'll pick lead or supporting, whichever is more advantageous, and force everyone to go with it.
As for predix, I'll go with Tomlin / Cotillard / Blanchett / Streep / Ronan. Mulligan is my sixth. I worry about anybody who has Lionsgate backing them - it's not that it hasn't been done, but Fox / Focus / SPC / TWC have a big leg up.
And re: Alicia Vikander, I was watching Ex Machina over the weekend and kept seeing a resemblance to Lea Michele. Is it just me?
Will Harvey make any sort of push for Helen Mirren in Woman in Gold? I doubt that it would be sucessful (the picture just isn't big enough), but he might try.
I really (means: REALLY) want Kate Winslet becoming the more young actor in history to receive EIGHT ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINATIONS (leading for 'The dressmaker', sup for 'Steve Jobs').
Just for Meryl been hunted. LOL
What a competitive year we all have!!!!!!!!!!!!
my predix:
la blanchett
la cotillard
la winslet
la tomlin
la rampling
NO, NO MERYL!! (PLEASE, STAY AT HOME!)
@Bette Streep
With all due to respect, we talk about the actress that insulted Walt Disney as sexist/racist and got nominmated for a Disney movie a year later anyway.
A standing O. for P.Arquette doesn't change anything. It only gathers her more respect, if not for the conservatives, then for the liberals at least.
I think anyone underestimating Streep (and also Lawrence) is just silly. Here's what'll happen:
- the trailer for "Ricki" will be released and the Oscar buzz will start with a bang
- the film will be released, Meryl will get rave reviews and much buzz for her singing, guitar playing, and against-type role
- the film will be at least a minor hit, giving Meryl more than enough momentum to score a nomination, despite the summer release
- in fact the summer release might even help, as she'll leave a lasting impression early
I pressume there is at least 2 or 3 actresses who are not considered as strong contenders at this point of the year. I would add Naomi Watts, just quite difficult to identify for which performance: "Demolition" or "Sea of Trees". It's possible that she'll be campaigned as supporting, but I can't imagine her winning for supporting role as Naomi has leading actress momentum, created both strong performances in indie and block-busters.
yes, HW is harvey weinstein probably... as in "she got naked for him and he got her an oscar", I think the insinuation is. very ~original~.
It's possible that she'll be campaigned as supporting, but I can't imagine her winning for supporting role as Naomi has leading actress
Best Actress Bit Player Naomi Watts
2 Nominations (03, 12)
1 Supporting Nomination (15)
1 Supporting Win (15)
If Blanchett can coast into a nomination for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, she can do ANYTHING.
I *really* hope that Carey Mulligan finally gets nom #2 this year. She's been consistently putting in incredible performances (it's an absolute travesty that she wasn't nominated for Shame) since An Education.
This year is already shaping up to be an actressexual's dream!
@Even: Harvey Weinstein is not going to let Marion Cotillard slip through the cracks as Lady MacBeth. He'll pick lead or supporting, whichever is more advantageous, and force everyone to go with it.
Have you forgotten The Immigrant? All the critics' wins and nominations she received and Harvey totally dropped the ball on that one. Sundance Selects of all people managed to get her the Oscar nod that the Weinstein Co. couldn't last year.
He dropped the ball on her earlier than that Paul. Remember her Best Actress campaign for Nine?
Genadijus -- i'm hearing that Watts is supporting in both of those films... which would make sense for Sea of Trees especially since plot descriptions barely mention her.
Don't forget Truth. Carol is Maps of the Stars (arthouse, auteur) and Truth is Still Alice (oscar bait). If Carol tanks or something, she still has this Truth card to play.