Acting Chart Updates. Four Questions
Friday, November 25, 2016 at 8:00PM Next week everything either begins to change or starts solidifying as the precursors begin. Woohoo, it's awards season! So ALL the Oscar charts were updated this week with the biggest gains this time going to Hell or High Water which wasn't just a momentary pleasure in the summer but a film people are still talking about - witness the Gotham and Spirit acting nods for Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster respectively.
have we been overestimating Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea? If she slips from the shortlist, who rises up?
BEST ACTRESS & BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
These categories are looking the most settled with 5 women in each chugging along smoothly toward the precursor glory. In fact apart from Oscar looking toward its default darlings (Meryl Streep and Amy Adams, who both did very fine work this year) it looks like Emma, Annette, Ruth, Isabelle, and Natalie all have reason to be hopeful. The same is true in Supporting Actress where five women (Viola, Naomie, Nicole, Michelle, Greta) have much more heat than others but they'll still have to fend off surging adorables like Molly Shannon in Other People and Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures.
Q1: If Meryl or Amy place in the leading shortlist, which one of them and who gets the boot?
Q2: If voters promote Viola Davis to lead (where she totally belongs given that Fences is essentially a family/marital drama) who benefits in supporting and who suffers in lead? Imagine the chaos!
How many nods can Hell or High Water manage? We're predicting 5 at the moment.
BEST ACTOR & BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
These two categories are much more volatile because the men haven't generated half as much conversation this year.
Q3: Might we see BOTH Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster in supporting for Hell or High Water since people love that film so much? A dual nod in Best Supporting Actor hasn't happened since Bugsy in 1991?
Q4: Do you expect something like 2011 when underdogs like Demian Bichir and Gary Oldman rose up to take nominations that people initially assumed would go to Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael Fassbender? And if so are Tom Hanks and Ryan Gosling pushed out and for whom?
Reader Comments (73)
I'm surprised you're so on the fence about Amy. Arrival was the kind of movie I think the Academy will really enjoy, and she seems like a logical place to reward it (along with the script, and I won't be surprised if it makes BP). I don't think Huppert is a sure thing, Annette's movie is small and she's in more of an ensemble piece, and I can even see Negga falling out if they don't love her film. I'm only sure about Stone and Portman, and I'd actually put Adams third. I think they'll be impressed with that performance. Streep and Chastain could miss or not - I just don't know.
I would LOVE seeing Molly Shannon get in but with such a small film, I'm just thrilled she got in at the Spirits. It's kind of like Cynthia Nixon last year. I don't question Davis (unless they put her in Actress), Williams, Harris or Kidman. I see those all happening easily. I've seen the Gurus are going with Gerwig but she's my question mark. I think Williams wins if Davis goes lead. Slot #5 could go to someone in a frontrunner film. If Moonlight got the love it should, Monae should be in the conversation. Jones could surprise, too.
I think Bridges will get the HOHW love, but I love the surprise Foster nod. Only Moonlight should get multiple Supporting Actor nods! :) Neeson looks baity as hell, Patel seems likely and Hedges is probably #5. Neeson or Ali will most likely win.
Actor, I think Washington and Affleck are in, plus probably Gosling since he's in the frontrunner. No idea on the others. Underdogs like Garfield, Mortensen, Keaton, McConaughey, Pine - all possible. I'd guess Edgerton and Hanks for now, but they're not solid.
I know that young actors are rarely nominated but is that the only reason why you are not predicting Lucas Hedges? I'd say he has stronger buzz than anyone in that category right now. I guess we will see what happens with the precursors.
I actually left "Arrival" thinking Adams isn't much of a contender this year. The movie is good, of course, but I think it's a showcase for ideas more than for performance. For me, there's no wow moment.
Best Actress right now
1. Portman/Stone
3. Huppert
4. Streep
5. Adams/Henson
If Davis get promoted to lead, drop Huppert/Streep down a notch.
Supporting
1. Davis
2. Harris
3. Williams
4. Kidman
5. Spencer
If Davis gets promoted, maybe Weisz gets back in the conversation?
-I think Fences if more likely to get dual supporting male nods. August Wilson is nothing if not generous with his characterizations
-I think Tom Hanks can get pushed out by Andrew Garfield.
I REALLY hope the Academy ignores the campaigns and nominates *and awards* Viola in Lead a la Winslet for The Reader, and Naomie Harris wins Supporting. That would be freaking epic.
I hate Gerwig - I really hope you and the experts are wrong!
I've loved Naomie Harris since forever - hope she gets nominated and wins!
But we all know Davis will win - her snot-acting is back and better than ever!
I don't see Kidman getting a nom.
I haven't seen Manchester, but I was not impressed with Williams in the clips I've seen.
I hate the digital look of Live By Night, judged only by the trailer - I hope you're wrong about the nom.
is hugh grant officially running for lead? [he should, but all the talk was supporting up until now]
I know Hugh Grant is going lead at the globes, but I think he's going the Christian Bale root of Lead for the Globes and Supporting everywhere else, chasing a win at the Globes regardless of category so as to fuel the supporting actor campaign
So cool that my country, Denmark, will get its 12th nomination
in Best Foreign Language Film.
Yes, isn't Hugh Grant going for supporting? I would also be surprised if Lion gets any traction. Same with Ruth Negga for Loving. Small film, unknown actress.
I wonder if Adams can pull off a dark horse thing again this year, if not get a Sandra Bullock-in-Gravity trajectory. She made it by surprise in 2013, somehow missed (justifiably) in a looser field in 2014, and Arrival's gonna be everywhere come nomination morning. Putting Negga and Huppert ahead of her looks right, they've been everywhere, but counting Amy Adams out feels dangerous this year, even more so than Streep.
It's interesting that the three Indie Spirit-eligible Supporting Actress contenders in your top five all missed with their own films scoring pretty well while Molly Shannon showed up. The smallness of Williams' part and Gerwig's film make them seem a little precarious, and a Davis/Reader situation feels plausible. Maybe it's because Harris is being recognized via the Altman Award but she still feels safer than Williams and Gerwig. I think Shannon could really pull off a grassroots narrative here, especially since nobody except Davis seems to have a narrative outside the strength of their performance. Everyone in contention looks like a real winner, they just have to make it in.
God, imagine a Portman-Stone-Bening-Davis-Huppert lineup. Heaven.
Viola Davis will not be bumped up to lead by AMPAS. An actress could be literally the only person in her movie, the sole focus of it, and be nominated as Supporting Actress if she's campaigned there. Most voters are mindless sheep.
The supporting actor race is a mess this year. I'm only confident in Mahershala Ali and Jeff Bridges as of now. Category confusion plagues Dev Patel and Hugh Grant (do we know what category the Globes are going with Patel? It appears Hugh Grant is going lead as I just discovered from this site). And Lucas Hedges is just so young. Perhaps Liam Neeson really gives a tour-de-force in Silence. If so, he would have the narrative and the drive for a potential win. I still wouldn't count out Michael Shannon yet. He just missed last year and his role in Nocturnal Animals is highly praised.
I don't think you're overestimating Michelle Williams. I think she's firmly in. I'm not entirely confident in Greta Gerwig and could easily see her being replaced by one of the Hidden Figures ladies (Monae or Spencer).
I saw Arrival on Wednesday and LOVED it, although I am still not entirely sure how awards bodies will go for it. The score is the most impressive I've heard all year, the screenplay is sharp, and the direction is solid. Amy Adams gives a terrific performance, but she's quite subdued. I think she'll get a Globe nod but I'm not convinced of anything else. I do think we're underestimating Streep (I think she'll get Globe, BAFTA, and SAG nods) and she could potentially knock out Ruth Negga, sadly.
I love Emma Stone, but as some people have said, if she wins, there's a chance she will get the kind of hate that Anne Hathaway, Gwyneth Paltrow, Natalie Portman got after they won.
I really don't want that to happen to her.
I'll defend Paltrow's win always - but I still say that Portman's Black Swan performance ranks among some the most overrated Oscar wins of all time.
I'm not a big Portman fan in general, and it behooves me not(!) that she's back in Oscar's good graces. Full disclosure: I liked her in Hotel Chevalier and Closer. Haven't seen Jackie.
Haven't seen Loving either, so I don't know if Negga is good/great - but I'm sure she'll be nominated, if only to compensate for two years in a row of Oscars so white.
Oscars so white-gate is also perhaps why Fences and Moonlight are tracking so well, not having seen either movies.
Haven't seen Elle either, but seeing the trailer and reading about the movie, it sounds like a ballsy movie for the Academy to embrace - which would make a nom for Huppert very welcome in my book.
I love Bening.
Everyone -- Hugh Grant is campaigning supporting but at the very same time he's campaigning lead for the Globes so I'm hoping people wise up and go with lead. As he's better than Hanks or Edgerton this year. Would love to see him nominated. But the category fraud bugs me.
it really bugs me in Viola's case too. It's just never fair to real supporting players.
Ulrich -- but Gerwig is great in that movie! and its a showy part. Also I ALSO hope i'm wrong about Live by Night but I keep thinking they'll ignore Richardson for his increasingly mediocre work but they never do.
Arkaan -- i can't see the double happening for Fences. Williamson's role is very small and Adepo mostly just reacts to Denzel's ranting (I was surprised how unnoteworthy the young son role is because I loved Adepo in The Leftovers but felt he didn't have that much to do in Fences). But Henderson is just great and has amazing chemistry with Denzel and a ton of scenes. It'd be cool to see him nominated.
Dave -- i left feeling the same thing (and I loved her in the movie. my favorite Adams performance since The Fighter). It's weird. I totally loved Streep & Adams in their movies this year but the category is so stacked with even better work and I'm really hoping they sit this year out as they've both been so generously rewarded for years. and it's not like if they're snubbed will be going without them this season. they'll both surely be celebrated at the Globes.
Everyone -- Hugh Grant is campaigning supporting but at the very same time he's campaigning lead for the Globes so I'm hoping people wise up and go with lead. As he's better than Hanks or Edgerton this year. Would love to see him nominated. But the category fraud bugs me.
it really bugs me in Viola's case too. It's just never fair to real supporting players.
Ulrich -- but Gerwig is great in that movie! and its a showy part. Also I ALSO hope i'm wrong about Live by Night but I keep thinking they'll ignore Richardson for his increasingly mediocre work but they never do.
Arkaan -- i can't see the double happening for Fences. Williamson's role is very small and Adepo mostly just reacts to Denzel's ranting (I was surprised how unnoteworthy the young son role is because I loved Adepo in The Leftovers but felt he didn't have that much to do in Fences). But Henderson is just great and has amazing chemistry with Denzel and a ton of scenes. It'd be cool to see him nominated.
Dave -- i left feeling the same thing (and I loved her in the movie. my favorite Adams performance since The Fighter). It's weird. I totally loved Streep & Adams in their movies this year but the category is so stacked with even better work and I'm really hoping they sit this year out as they've both been so generously rewarded for years. and it's not like if they're snubbed will be going without them this season. they'll both surely be celebrated at the Globes.
I think the weakest of the "actress five" is Ruth Negga, only because people don't seem to be talking much about Loving, except for calling it understated and muted (things Oscar doesn't usually like). It also didn't do that well at either Gotham or Spirit noms.
Basically, I could see Huppert still getting in at the end of the day even if she misses at the globes and sag (although she'll need some critics awards, I guess we can count on the LA film critics on this one) and still make it in like Emmanuelle Riva and Marion Cotillard did for other foreign language performances... but I don't think Negga could pull up support if she misses both globes and sag.
I think Streep will sneak in for her 20th nomination. It's not the strongest of films but her performance is grand with great support from Hugh Grant.
Four thoughts:
BEST actor
I really think that Andrew Garfield for Silence will surprise everyone with a nomination or even a... WIN! #teamviggo
BEST actress
Amy Adams in Arrival will be there. My favorite Adams performance since... Junebug. Not an Amy Adams fan but she really surprised me in Villeneuve's film. Viola Davis should be here. PERIOD.
BEST supporting actor
I don't understand why Mahershala Ali gets all the talk for Moonlight. My MVP in that film is, BY FAR, Trevante Rhodes. Also Lucas Hedges killed it.
BEST supporting actress
Lily Gladstone will get in the conversation more than we think. First, because she is AMAZING in Certain Women but also, unfortunately, Standing rock. DREAM nomination: Dakota Johnson for A Bigger Splash.
Streep will sneak in. 20th nomination will be good press for Oscars.
I'm dreading a young actress wins Best Actress this year. Outside of Chastain and Larson I hate them all. I really want them to close the deal and give it to Annette. Just like Moore and Sarandon previously on their 5th nomination.
How generous of you to like two people. Ha. Florence is so funny that I think it will be remembered as a great comedy. Arrival is great Sci Fi and Amy Adams is the whole movie. I have to give a shout out for them + their directors.
Actress:
Adams-Bening-Davis-Portman-Stone
Actor:
Affleck-Gosling-Hanks-Keaton-Washington
Sup. Actress:
Harris-Fanning (21st)-Kidman-Spencer-Williams
Sup. Actor:
Bridges-Hedges-A. Holland-Neeson-Patel
(I really wanted to write "Huppert." But I am sticking with that Davis prediction until further notice,)
Would Hanks be vulnerable if Sully falls off the BP chart? But then it's quite hard to find a replacement for him. Edgerton is transformative but the performance is kind of quiet and in parts not all that well done. He's probably the biggest threat? Maybe Keaton has a renewed opportunity to get in. Garfield is young and his performance is a big question mark for me.
I wish Rebecca Hall, Lily Gladstone and Ralph Fiennes get traction in their categories, but maybe their films are not in the radar of cultural arbiters who predict nominations. I wish the Academy recognizes truly good work that will stand the test of time and not just what is current and now. But then again some of the most honored 'timeless performances' were not awarded or understood the time their films come out. So for me, even if I love the game of predicting nominees as a reflection of what I subjectively feel are strong performances, who 'wins' at the end are those whose films and performances remain relevant in years to come; or ones discussed more often in academic/ philosophical discussions.
P.S. I just saw Little Men, and thought Michael Barbieri was amazing. Also re-watched Elle and aside from Isabelle Huppert's magnificence, I also thought Jonas Bloquet was quietly heartbreaking.
Am I the only person who thinks Jeff Bridges' performance, as good as it is, is also a case of category fraud? I see it as a dual story, with one side being Chris Pine's character arc and then equal footing given to Bridges as the cop chasing him.
I've thought about the possibility of a double nom for HOHW in supporting. I think it could happen. But if if does and Chris Pine is left out I'll just log out and pretend this Oscar year never happened.
I'm with Mike. Word by word.
Some questions/ponderings
Has Williams dropped cos of the lack of an Indie spirit nod
Is Grant now being promoted as Lead,he jumped categories
Viola needs to go Lead and also to call it out,his and hers Oscars would be gr8 for her n Denzel
Negga in Edgerton out
Is Gosling really a number4,they are allergic to romantic male leads
Sully is fading don't you think
Sarsgaard is out It will be the Portman show
Adams and Streep sit this one out until they deliver a slamdunk winning performance.
Supporting Actress may be in for a shake up
If Hugh Grant is nominated Supporting I wouldn't be surprised to see Simon Helberg there, too. And if Hugh Grant is Lead, then Helberg would get his slot. They're both pretty wonderful
I think Meryl Streep, Hugh Grant and Simon Helberg will get nominated at The Golden Globes, SAG and Academy Awards.
Well... Let's put some chaos on the conversation ;)
ACTRESS
*Portman - Stone - Huppert - BRAGA (!!!!!) - Adams/ Benning
Winner: Potman
With Viola leading
Portman - Stone - Huppert - BRAGA (!!!!!!!) - Davis
Winner: Davis
With Viola supporting
*Davis - Harris - Williams - Spencer - Kidman
Winner: Davis
Without Viola supporting
Harris - Williams - Spencer - Kidman - Monae / Mbatha-Raw / Mirren
Winner: Harris
Actor
*Affleck - Washington - GARFIELD - MORTENSEN - Hanks / Keaton / Edgerton
Wiiner: Garfield
Supporting Actor
*Ali - Sarsgaard - Hedges / Shin'ya Tsukamoto - Neeson - Asano (!!!!!)
Winner: Neeson
* That's what will happen. Go for me ;)
Actor: Judging by the trailers, I think Denzel Washington seems like he has this in the bag.
Actress: Right now, I'm predicting Bening, Huppert, Negga, Portman, and Stone but Adams is a very close 6th.
Supp. Actor: Who knows? One day, I could say Ali will win and another I could say Patel or even Bridges. I hope Fiennes gains some traction, though. If it came out later in the year, he might've been a shoo-in because it's a kind of bombastic performance that they love.
Supp. Actress: Davis will probably win but if she gets "Reader'd" it might go to Harris.
Viola Davis is going to be nominated in Supporting. Her fans need to accept that she chose that categorization, accept it, and move on.
That's somewhat disappointing re Fences support. Vance got a Tony nominated for the original Broadway production.
I don't have the same strong feelings about HOHW that people seem to have though
"Am I the only person who thinks Jeff Bridges' performance, as good as it is, is also a case of category fraud?"
If you really WANT to see it as a grey area, you can choose to do so; but you'd be stretching it quite a bit to call it outright fraud. Might as well call all the moonlight men leads, all the 20th century women leads, the four main players in the bigger splash leads...,etc.
There is such a thing as a large supporting role. The story is about/driven by Pine (all about his backstory and his emotional journey); and Bridges' role is clearly supporting in that. If we also got a lot of flashbacks on the Bridges character, I'd be more inclined to agree with you.
To me, it only becomes category fraud when it is blatant. Re: Rooney Mara in Carol, Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, possibly Viola in Fences. If it is not blatant and there is a solid argument for the placement chosen, I am good with it.
You can never really count Meryl Streep out. And for a well reviewed movie. No! she's getting in. I think everyone is overestimating Ruth Negga and underestimating Isabelle Huppert. This is Huppert's most talked about performance in ages. They have recently shown a lot of support for European actresses and Elle is higher profile a movie than Amour. I think she'll feature strongly this awards season. and she is campaigning in her Isabelle Huppert way. I think Emma Stone will be the eventual winner but I think Natalie Portman will feature heavily in precursor wins and remain a real possibility until the end.
For supporting actress, they might as well give the Oscar to Viola now. There is no way anyone else is going to feature in any way. This is going to be a Javier Bardem/Cate Blanchett type of sweep. And people will keep on clapping until the Oscar podium and then the next realize maybe a bone could have been throne in the Michelle Williams or Nicole Kidman direction. I'm fairly confident this is how it's going to play out and will probably be well deserved too. She has earned it! Personally excited Kidman was able to kind of come back from the very very public flops of Queen of the Desert and Grace of Monaco - two movies built around her.
The Academy has been warming up to science fiction in recent years and Amy Adams will surely benefit from the style of Arrival. It's right in line with the intelligent, actor-driven sci-fi they've rewarded recently like Ex-Machina, Her, Interstellar, The Martian, and Gravity. Sure, those didn't all net acting nominations, but the precursors rallied hard for leads or supporting roles in all of these. And if Matt Damon and Sandra Bullock can pull of nominations without being Academy darlings, Amy Adams has to be pretty close to a lock. I mean, she got in for The Master and that's far stranger than anything that happens in Arrival.
It's not just "Viola's fans" who are mentioning the possibility of a Lead nomination, it's people who see a clear parallel to Winslet's supporting campaign for The Reader.
Bening is not a lock. Amy will probably be included if her momentum continues. She is loved by the Academy, her film is loved an it is a hit.
I feel kinda on board with the whole Viola Davis thing, honestly. In my reading of the play I feel like that character is functionally supporting, she just gets to emerge as the heart of the show as it progresses and is the only one besides Troy who gets to monologue. Not that her Lead Tony doesn't matter but it's literally the only instance that Rose has been categorized as a leading part on Broadway that I can find. Viola winning a Best Actress prize would be such a lovely outcome, but this isn't a huge crime, certainly not worse than Roberts, Mara, Vikander, Tremblay, whoever else, in this decade alone. Maybe she's a straddler, but it fits.
Also, The Reader comparison feels a liiittle different from this? Since there's not just a more leading part but that it's played by one actor. And that actor is Denzel Washington in a part that is Enormous in every single way and is the person the whole show's about. Davis getting Winslet's trajectory feels possible, but she's got way more supporting her Supportingness than Winslet really did.
If Meryl get a SAG (and Bafta) nod, she's in. She only has one SAG+GG nod that didn't get her an Oscar nom: The River Wild.
But that was anything but an Oscar movie. *lol*
FFJ is waaayyyy more Oscar bait.... and her best reviewed film of the decade. And a contender in more categories than just acting. Costumes, Hair&Make Up and Production design are possible.
But whatever happens in the end, it'll be a win-win situation (for me mainly), because even if she actually gets snubbed, it'll be seen HUGE and automatically push her for her next Oscar role and it'll be for a properly less good reviewed movie than FFJ.
I'm just a bit concerned about Amy because the genre is Sci-Fi. With Aliens.
Neither Gravity nor The Martian had Aliens. They were dramas set in space.
I don't know what Annette Bening would feel if Portman becomes the frontrunner again. But it seems she's cool with it (on the outside).
As for Viola, I was really surprised seeing her going Supporting. I thought she would fight with all her power for a lead spot. And Paramount could have worked her narrative very powerful also. But maybe they have too many movies to handle. Oscar campaigns cost a lot of money.
I forgot to mention I'd like to see Meryl's 20th nom a huge event and not a side note.
Maybe 2018? It'd be perfect and would round up not only the decade but also her noms from 1978, 1988, 1998 and 2008 also. What a great trivia it would make!
So yeah... I'm conflicted. *lol*
Meryl isn't as much a lock for a comedy as she is for a drama. The Academy can't resist her in a movie like "August: Osage County," but I think they can resist her here. She's not "overdue" anymore, so that will probably seal her off this time. Adams is overdue for a win, and the movie is a great vehicle for her. I think she's in and could even win.
It's looking very possible to get 4 acting winners who all played fictional characters. Would be the first time since 1997.
Post-Thanksgiving, and I am so excited to have already seen so many performance-driven films that just ROCK! Bring on the awards, and may the embarrassment of riches show in diverse lists and winners from the critics and pre-cursors. As of today, I'll predict:
ACTOR
Denzel, Casey, Gosling, Hanks, Keaton (I'd go with Mortensen, on performance, but Keaton has such track record lately -- even if he technically missed on SPOTLIGHT, I give him the edge; if Garfield gets in, it's for HACKSAW)
ACTRESS
stone, Portman, Bening, Huppert, Adams (Negga has been so appreciated all year, but feels most easily neglected here)
S ACTOR
Ali, Patel, Foster, Henderson, Rhodes (taking a big risk here on the double nods for MOONLIGHT)
S ACTRESS
Davis, Harris, Kidman, Williams, Monae (feeling frisky with my number 5 pick, counting her in for Hidden Figures; the betting man in me wants to play it safer, but I think 20th Century isn't going to be the story it might have been in another year and people will resist Gerwig. I would LOVE to see Shannon break through here -- why isn't the film even available on Netflix yet if they released it?? Should have been a perfect Thanksgiving screener for people, especially off the indie spirit nod. I was holding out all hope for Cynthia nixon last year, and have probably learned my lesson to not wish for the sky)
Can I also ask the crowd, am I alone in thinking that Gretchen Mol might have been doing some more vital, risky work in the outskirts of MANCHESTER? So much more is built around Elise than what's suggested of Randi, when the men of the house are talking about them when they're not on-screen. And in the early hospital scene, and her reappearance at the lunch, Gretchen does some skitters, jittery work that could have landed her here, if she'd just been given that one scene to face up against the men in the past. She arguably has a lot more to do in her snippets than a Michelle does (except during the disaster, which is raw and physical and let's Michelle explode in a huge and interesting way -- Sean penn in Mystic River kind of shit). Here'a hoping Gretchen keeps on acting from the edges like that. Welcome back.
huh: I take your point about ti being a grey area rather than blatant category fraud.
However, I still maintain that it is a two-hander. Yes, Pine's character has flashbacks, but Bridges' character is more about the end of a set of life choices rather than the beginning. I believe this is played out well (SLIGHT SPOILER) in the final scene (END SPOILER).
Actress : Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone, Streep
Actor : Affleck, Gosling, Hanks, Mortensen, Washington
Supporting actress : Davis, Harris, Kidman, Spencer, Williams
Supporting actor : Ali, Bridges, Henderson, Grant, Neeson