Best Actress - New Oscar Chart
Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 1:42PM by Nathaniel R
Beware the premature envelopers! The Best Actress race is far from over and it's very exciting. I still suspect that Glenn Close wins IF nominated but Lady Gaga could IF nominated (though we suspect she's just winning Best Song despite the early hoopla). And who knows, perhaps Olivia Colman in The Favourite will go lead (we still have her in the supporting chart) and from early reports she could also win IF nominated. Then you have Carey Mulligan and Melissa McCarthy, both arguably doing the best work of their careers. Nicole Kidman, Emma Stone, Emily Blunt, Toni Colette and Viola Davis all in very flashy roles or high profile films and Yalitza Aparicio as a highly sympathetic debut in a critical favorite.
The grid above shows you what we predict are the current top ten (alpha order) but a lot can change once the movies...
- Face the public
- Fine tune their Oscar campaigns and press play/
- Meet the first wave of precursors which will generally shun some worthy competitors and embrace others and in ways that are not always easy to predict until suddenly everyone is doing the same thing and it is.
Ah the agony and joy of Awards Season. It's not much further away. One thing is for certain. If any competitors from the first half of the year want to reemerge or move up the chart, they need a strong campaign. Only Toni Collette in Hereditary remains in the top ten from the year's first half and it's not because other contenders (Elsie Fisher, Charlie Theron, Rachel Weisz, Michelle Pfeiffer, etcetera... ) didn't do fine work, too. It's just people have short memories and they like shiny new toys.
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS: Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Foreign Film
Reader Comments (81)
Glenn Close (win)
Melissa McCarthy
Carey Mulligan
Toni Collette
Davis/Stone/Aparicio
I've seen both The Favourite and A Star Is Born. Colman is extraordinary but belongs in supporting and Gaga is not SO good as an actress as they want us to believe.
I would like to see Collette and Mulligan in, but we know that all the hype sorrounding Lady Gaga will prevail.
Kidman getting double nominated will be a beautiful, long overdue and well deserved.
Remember 2 years ago, when pundits were claiming that La La Land would win because it was a cheerful film and people were depressed about the election?
I've spent so much of my free time this year watching old musicals to avoid thinking about T****. For the same reason, I just don't see films that sound relentlessly downbeat, like Destroyer, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, etc., taking off with Oscar voters when there is so much else they could nominate this year. Look at the box office hits - Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, documentaries about Mr. Rogers and RBG, even, to an extent, Eighth Grade and Sorry to Bother You.
I agree that Viola is too low and more likely to get nominated for Widows than Nicole for Destroyer. Viola is incredibly well-respected and it will be hard to resist nominating her for a lead in a Steve McQueen film. And while most actress nominees have an "arc," not all of them do (did Sandra Bullock have an arc in The Blind Side or Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?).
I hope voters don't think "Oh! What the hell! Let's give it to Close next time for Sunset Boulevard!" That is unless Close pulls a Hepburn and wins for BOTH films... Now that would be something!
Thank you Nat for all your work. I find this particular list right on the spot.
If Colman is really more o a supp player n really goes this route..i can totally see her n Close sweep the supp n lead actress prizes respectively, at all those televised award shows!!
Wldn't it b wonderful!! 😁
Not accepting any other winner than Glenn Close. Period.
The drumbeat of (grassroots) support for Close is really heartening. (I don't even recall this level of fervor for Julianne Moore, and we know how that shook out.) She's not going to be ignored, AMPAS.
Kidman seems like wishful thinking, sadly. I can see her going the way of Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia: highly-praised, award-winning (critics) performance in a difficult, downbeat film that doesn't catch fire elsewhere. She can build on the momentum, but this year's Oscars probably will be kinder to Close, Davis, Gaga, McCarthy, and the so-called-overrated-but-actually-underrated Stone. Would love to be proven wrong, of course.
McCarthy and Gaga are expendable till Oscar morning unless they sweep the televised precursors as nominees.
Marcos: I sometimes think that if KIdman hadn't won for THE HOURS, she might have been nominated for and won for DOGVILLE (I know. It's a stretch.) That would have been more deserving. But the great thing about THE WIFE is that it is SO good, giving Close the Oscar for it wouldn't be a "make up" award. It's actually an Oscar worthy performance.
She should've won for Birth.
Saw Can You Ever Forgive Me and I'm sure now that McCarthy is missing. It's a great performance but she's frumpy, and while Oscar loves a full ugly transformation, he *hates* frumpy. There are occasional exceptions, like when it's mixed with scary (a la Kathy Bates), but the fact that she's unlikable, queer, an actress that's been rewarded for comedy when it's what she's known for... I think she's one of our snubs. Frankly, the movie may miss out in all categories, which would obviously be a bummer for Holofcener.
Kidman is likely getting in for atleast one of the two, but both nominations seem like a strech. For Destroyer naysayers, remember when Kidman got globe and sag mentions for the paperboy , this is pre her kidmaniassance. Now that she has more backing and the academy in general is more aware of her work, her narrative screams way overdue.
@brandz LOL
I remain perpetually confused by this "Kidman overdue" narrative. I love and admire her as much as anyone but like, she has an Oscar already? And four nominations? Not to mention two Emmys, five Golden Globes, a Silver Bear and a Cannes special award? I agree she has done some terrific work that has not resulted in nominations, but she can't be nominated every time. She's doing fine. And there are multiple actresses in the race this year who are far more overdue than her.
"Saw Can You Ever Forgive Me and I'm sure now that McCarthy is missing. It's a great performance but she's frumpy, and while Oscar loves a full ugly transformation, he *hates* frumpy."
Yeah, Mildred Hayes and Tonya Harding's mom are the picture of glamour.
Jes V. I think oscars is not about spreading the wealth but more about rewarding the best of the year, in which kidman has been egregiously overlooked many times because of either the characters not being very likable, or nicole’s general public image of the 2000’s of being icy or the movies not doing a lot of bank. A lot of these performances have really stood the test of time, hence the overdue chatter. Also big little lies really really helped. :)
@Suzanne
McDormand is revered. All types are welcomed in supporting actress.
This feels like the first time in years that Jennifer Lawrence has not been part of the Best Actress conversation.
It's a big brave new world out there, guys. All "types" are welcome everywhere.
Rizz:
I don't disagree with you re Kidman, at all. But in spite of everything you mention, she's one of the most rewarded actresses of her generation, and she gets some of the very best roles. That's more than can be said for so many actresses of equal talent working today (see, relevant to this year alone: Regina King, Michelle Yeoh, Toni Collette, and Olivia Colman, to say nothing of Glenn Close). It's just odd to me that Kidman is the one so many choose to beat the drum for, when she's had so much more opportunity, and gotten so much more recognition (even if not as much as she deserves), than so many others who deserve it equally. From my perspective, she hasn't been more unfairly snubbed than a number of her peers, but I suppose that's a matter of personal opinion.
Suzanne, I wasn't trying to be rude - just going based on observations. Hard-as-nails Mildred Hayes sounds like more of a comparison to Kidman's character than McCarthy's. Janney went with full ugly-look for a straight up villain role. You also skipped over my other reasons - it's a combination of them and an extremely competitive Actress year that make me think she'll miss. Maybe I'm wrong - we'll see.
I'm getting an 07 vibe with a good chance for an outside win, a critical darling coming in between a split top two. I'm hoping Aparicio ends up playing that role.
Got to agree that it is heartening to see the groundswell of support for Close in The Wife and as Dan H pointed out, it is not to make up for past Oscar snubs but because Joan Castleman is an acting triumph and a thing of rare beauty.
Obviously I have not seen most of the films being mentioned here (December is when I binge-watch for several days) but I can see Yalitza Aparicio making it to the top 5 best lead actress performance. Not because she is a token non-American in the list, but Roma sounds epic in its depiction of truly intimate relations with national-scale significance (see Norma Aleandro in The Official Story or Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild or Adriana Barraza's segment in Babel).
Wouldn't it be nice to recognize superlative actressing this year (from films seen in film festivals abroad) coming from other (and probably othered) films:
Tao Zhao, Ash is Purest White
Mary Kay Place, Diane
Helena Howard & Molly Parker, Madeline's Madeline
Samal Yeslyamova, Ayka
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, All About Nina
Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Marianne Jean-Baptiste & Fatma Mohamed, In Fabric
Marsha Timothy, Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts
Isabelle Huppert, Greta
Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
Bia -- no Jennifer OR Meryl. So it's weird. but also refreshing. Everyone needs abreak now and then so we can miss them and want them back!
Suzanne -- you're right that not every winner (or nominee) has an arc but I guess I just wonder if WIDOWS will compete in a big way. I have it as *just* outside the best pic list at number 9 (predicting 8 nominees currently). I loved it but i honestly couldn't tell while watching it if it's just going to be commercial or if the Academy will respond. But I do think that Debicki & Erivo kinda steal the movie from everyone else.
Everyone -- it's strange to me that some people see THE WIFE as being a movie no one is seeing and some see it as being a minor hit.I suppose it is somewhere in the middle but the film is about to hit $5 million and that's OUTSIDE of awards season box office with nothing to push the film except word of mouth about Glenn Close's brilliant work. It's been a steady performer ever since it opened. so i think it was successful enough for her to get the nomination and the nomination is what she needs to get the win. ;)
I do think all the talk of Lady Gaga winning is a little crazy but i could be wrong.I think Lady Gaga gets in for sure (it's an emotional film and a knockout in all kinds of ways) but i think a win would require enough heat for an actual Best Picture win... which, as much as I love the movie, I dont think will happen because the backlash will be strong "oh, it's a remake. oh it's just a concert. oh it's not as important as ____" and so on. I LOVE THAT MOVIE SO MUCH THOUGH SO I'M DREADING THE BACKLASH.
Really it's a strange race to become the best actress. We are always going for this resist. Thanksa.
Is Natalie Portman in Vox Lux not a contender this year?
@Choog: Portman is rumored to be goin Supp as she only appears at the 2nd half of Vox Lux n IF Neon released it for qualification this yr.
It is great that the Best Actress race is so competitive and that there are still no locks at this point, although Close, Gaga and McCarthy are the safest bets. I would be one of the happiest persons on Earth if the final line-up includes Viola Davis, Nicole Kidman and Julia Roberts, but I think that they will be competing (along Yalitza Aparicio) for the two other slots. I indeed disagree with having Julia Roberts as a long shot; I am afraid that the actual long shots at this point are Carey Mulligan, Emily Blunt and, sadly, Toni Collete.
I admit I use to be biased towards Nicole Kidman and Julia Roberts, but in this case I think that Julia has a better chance at the nominations if she decides to campaign and the campaign is smart:
1. Reviews for 'Ben is back' are overall positive and the audience response at TIFF seemed to be quite enthusiastic according to Scott Feinberg's chronicle
2. The topic of the film is timely and important
3. Most reviews for Roberts' performance are far better than just 'warm'
4. Her character is a fierce protective mom, so it will easily appeal to many voters
5. It is also the first lead and emotional role from Roberts in many years (and everyone knows how good she can be in a good big emotional role)
6. If the 'Homecoming' series is a critical and audience success (and the first comments and reviews from TIFF suugest that it might well be), it will arrive in a perfect time for having Julia in the conversation as a kind of a big star comeback
Anyhow, thanks a lot for these charts, Nathaniel, and we will see what happens!
I'm not sure a day has gone by since I saw The Wife months ago that I haven't thought about Glenn's performance and had the wind knocked out of me. It's so, so good. And the film itself is a masterpiece. So, god-willing, the buzz will continue to simmer and grow and come February, Ms. Close will finally ascend to that podium and take what belongs to her.
I would not get tired of Streep being in every year... Nat
Well, your Oscar season will be so much fun if your favorite happens to be a contender but I am glad this year Meryl is not in the race for a change because everytime she's in I think my heart beat faster and I lost a year of my life cheering for her (or anyone against her for that matter, LOL). And can I say something with a big smile, I think Nathaniel's Oscar reports this year are so much active and livelier because his favorite Nicole Kidman (my favorite too) happens to have a strong chance to be a double nominee. That's great but it will twice as bad for your heart - Nat. LOVE U.
And even though there's no Meryl, Cate, Kate, Helen, Jennifer, Amy, Sandra etc., best actress race this year looks like one of the most excited in years. So if your favorite is in, you really have to prepare yourself for not getting a heart attack before the race is over.
Lastly, I am disappointed again that Michelle is not a top contender, but if Glenn can have The Wife late in her career, I hope Michelle can have her The Wife someday too.