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« Best Actress - New Oscar Chart | Main | Strong Contenders from Iceland, Denmark, and Lebanon »
Saturday
Sep222018

Supporting Actress - New Oscar Chart

by Nathaniel R

Continuing the chart updates to reflect this post-festival world, Supporting Actress is now redone with new images and new rankings and new text. The major change is that I've thoroughly convinced myself that Elizabeth Debicki will nab her first nomination for Widows. In some ways she has the biggest character arc, and it's a very large role that still is a supporting one (and screen time really counts as you know) and she has interesting screen chemistry of all types with her primary scene partners (Viola Davis, Lukas Haas, Jon Bernthal, and Jacki Weaver). Plus she's one of the most exciting new actresses working and there's usually someone newish in a lineup. Of course to include her I've had to drop Amy Adams out of the predictions for her Second Lady role in Vice which might be foolhardy. On the other hand, Oscar eventually falls out of obsessive love with every actor (unless their name is Meryl Streep).

Check out the new chart

ICYMI: Supporting Actor and Leading Actor are also revamped

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Reader Comments (45)

Wow. Great lineup.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJono

Most people dont know that Cynthia Erivo 69 years old

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermartin

I want Kidman as a double nominee. Anything to boost her nomination count with the Academy.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Except for Yeoh (not happening), the top 9 are all very possible here. I would predict: Colman (or Stone, if placed here instead), Foy, King, Robbie and Kidman, in that order with the last two spots very vulnerable to Weisz, Adams (or other Vice ladies) and Debecki (good call). Sadly, I can see Weisz missing again (!) as her co-stars have showier roles (Colman) or are bigger more likable stars (Stone).

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAnonny

Without having seen the film, I'd assumed Olivia Colman would be up for Best Actress for THE FAVOURITE? But I guess Fox Searchlight will weigh up their options and decide accordingly.

I also wonder if Kidman in BOY ERASED is a more likely nominee than DESTROYER because the character is reportedly more likeable.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSteve G

I'm hoping Colman swaps with Stone and goes lead. That should leave an easier path for King to win.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMya

For me, it's Colman, Adams, Foy, King and Weisz.

Kidman is 6th for me.

If Amy delivers and when doesn't she, she's in and I'd say in for the win.

These predictions are on the assumption Stone goes Lead for The Favourite, if she somehow goes Supporting, she would definitely take one of these spots. If Colman goes Lead I can see Stone and Weisz doubling up. If they all go for supporting (could/would they?) Weisz is out and it's Colman and Stone.

Don't ask my why but I have a feeling that Kidman misses this year, placing sixth/seventh in both Actress and Supporting Actress. She might be good but the films aren't and with other potential nominees in amazing films, I think she'll be forgotten.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterKeegan

I believe Colman will be pushed lead because she has more chances there than Emma.

My prediction:

1. Foy
2. Weisz
3. King
4. Adams
5. Kidman

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJosh The Man

Might have to update the chart soon. I keep hearing more and more that Colman will ultimately go lead. She's getting in in either category. I don't see Kidman in lead happening, I think she'll get a congrats nod for her warmer role as a mom in Boy Erased. Bigger campaign, friendlier role and film, and Oscar eats those up.

I know it's only September but I feel surprisingly secure of two things. Two Favourite girls are getting in here, regardless of who they end up pushing lead (Stone or Colman) the other two end up here.

The second thing is that if Colman lands here, she's our winner. And as long as that doesn't happen then it's going to be Regina King.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAlexD

I do not want Amy Adams to win a make-it-up-to-you supporting oscar for a lame political bio pic. She deserves better than that.
I do worry that you're right though Nathaniel, I fear her moment with oscar might be over, and she'll have to wait another 10-15 years for a career-crowning oscar. They can't nominate her now unless she's going to win it.

Maybe Vice will be incredible, and she'll be incredible in it, but I'm not feeling it.

I think it's Colman for the win (yay) with King and Foy giving a good fight. I'd love to see Debicki get in.
Don't know how I feel about Kidman getting another nom for another 'mom in a wig' role.
I would be over-joyed at a nomination for Yeoh, as unlikely as that seems, but could be their way of recognising that movie???

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJB

After having seen WIDOWS, Debicki is going to be hard to ignore. Her character has the most obvious arc and she nails it. THE SLAPS IN THIS MOVIE!

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterFig

Rachel has Weiszly stick to supp n its v likely this will be her long o/due 2nd nom.

Stone wld b a strong Supp contender. But if she goes Lead, her chance o nom will drop quite substantially consider the spoils o riches in Lead category.

However, if they push Stone Lead n Colman supp, Colmanv has a v high chance o winning! 😁

And if they push Colman Lead (which she will likely b nom too) n Stone, supp. Then all 3 have a v good chance o nom, althot none might take home the gold.

I tink Fox wld play its card v carefully if they want an Acting win for The Favorite.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

I want Weisz to be the double nominee, not Kidman. Her leading performance in Disobedience was perfect.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Nat they look like a solid top 5 but am feeling Amy sneaks in as someone always does last minute,is Stone going Lead then,I don't see double noms for Kidman they'd have to adore both films,Hedges and Crowe are probably not getting in and she's the sole focus of Destroyer so Lead seems more likely.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

RE Jacki Weaver I can see she's doing too much just from the pic,"here I am Mobsters tacky wife"

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

I don't see Debicki and Weisz. Is The Favourite that mainstream?

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Think Colman is going lead. With those kind of reviews, I think she can break into the lead category and make room for both Stone and Weisz. I don't think Stone would have a shot at lead actress and they'd rather get all three women nominated instead of two.

I hope you're right about Debicki. I've thought she's fantastic in anything I've seen her in and this definitely feels like the right time/vehicle for her to make a play. Get on board people!

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterZach

Peggy Sue, I've been avoiding reviews of The Favourite, but someone I know who saw it says that it's "definitely more mainstream than Dogtooth." (That's probably not very helpful since everything is more mainstream than Dogtooth!)

I hope Michelle Yeoh isn't forgotten. She brings gravitas to what would otherwise be a very lightweight entertainment. It's the old question of: should you nominate someone only for the highest-quality films or for a film whose overall quality she helps to lift up?

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterOwen Walter

At this point, I’m thinking of Colman and Weisz (Disobedience) as Leads.

My early guess at supporting would be:

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Regina King, Beale Street
Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
Letitia Wright, Black Panther
Jennifer Garner, Love Simon

I think the love for Amy Adams is far from over ( because she is still great at everything she does). I agree with JB, that the push for her is going to be for the next lead roles that she does, for a Best Actress.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commenteradri

Adri Leticia Wright and Jennifer Garner should be filed under NO and Chance.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Is Julia Roberts a lead in Ben is Back,I read some glowing reviews for her work.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

I feel that Yeoh may have a real chance. A lot of people love that movie, and her nomination would be the main way of recognizing it plus her terrific career.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

I agree that I'd rather wait for Amy to win for a role that she isn't playing a real person. Nothing about Cheney's wife sounds like a career-exciting-achievement to me. I do think that she'll sneak in at the end if she is 'ignored' all season long.

I like the line up you have now. Love Michelle Yoeh, and am hopeful that her role in "Crazy Rich' will lead to many more roles that are more Oscary worthy and she'll finally win. (SAME GOES FOR AWKWAFINA!).

Would also die to see some Black Panther love for Gurira. I know, long shot, but its fun to hope!

Just praying for no category fraud this year!

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermikenewq

Love Kidman in a wig playing moms and boosting her Oscar nod count. She's in midlife and people from all stripes are rallying behind her.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Nathaniel, do you think Regina King has any shot at a win?

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaude

Nathaniel - re Vox Lux... the rumour is that Portman is running in this category and not as a lead, does that help her chances?

September 22, 2018 | Registered CommenterMurtada Elfadl

if colman runs in this category, she wins. her team probably knows this.

if the crown season 3 is released in time to coincide with campaigns / voting, she is unstoppable here, and would have a real shot in lead, too.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCharles O

FSL should push Colman in supporting to give her a good chance at the win, but I suspect they will push her in Best Actress and Stone and Weisz in supporting. This will likely result in all three getting nominated, but none of them winning.

I would push Stone in lead, even at the risk of her missing out on a nomination, to boost Colman’s chances in supporting. Wins are better for a film than nominations.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMike M.

I still think Colman is going on leading.
And they do have to give Kidman's at least another nom this year.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterFR

Yeah go Kidman. Finding a happy medium with the facial work has done wonders for believably in your roles. Frozen and artificially pouty just isn't in most characters experience.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter2 rempty

Fox Searchlight is running Colman in lead, almost surely, and they think she can win there, which I agree with (nothing would give me more joy than a Colman lead actress win--she is so, so good and has deserved this kind of recognition for so long), which means Stone and Weisz will run supporting, which seems right. I have GRAVE concerns however, if that is the case, that Stone will make it in and not Weisz on star power alone, which will be an outrage. Weisz is a personal top-5 favorite of mine, and she has been doing exquisite work for so long trying to get back in the race, and has been egregiously overlooked by the Academy. It will be so disappointing if that happens again here. She is one of the most versatile, engrossing actresses working today.

Speaking of another top-5 favorite for me, AMY ADAMS WILL NEVER BE OVER. If she had an Oscar already, maybe, but since she doesn't, I think she will remain an Academy favorite until she gets one.

My picks here are Foy, Stone, Weisz, King, and Debicki (also long overdue for a nomination in my opinion), with Margot Robbie and Julia Roberts poised to spoil if their films get the necessary buzz and they're run in supporting.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJes V.

This is gonna be journal battle to follow. There are so many great roles in the mids of the #metoo and #oscasowhite. Because of that, I belieber that the front runners will be:

Elizabeth Debicki
Michelle Yeoh
Regina King
Rachel Weisz
Claire Foy

I remember Debicki holding her own against both Blanchett and Huppert in The Maids so YES Debicki is very talented

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterManuel

Also, should note that if Adams' role in VICE is substantial enough, and the film is good enough, I think there's a strong chance they will run her in lead, the field for which some think is less crowded than supporting right now, and submit the other women in the film for supporting consideration.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJes V.

Amy came out of nowhere in 2013 and there's always that last film of the year that's fesh and appealing Phantom Thread was such a success last year due to it's late release and everybody having seen everything else,this year it's Vice.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

markgordonuk

I believe Phantom Thread's late release actually didn't help the film. It certainly deserved to be nominated for screenplay, production design and actress for Krieps. It could have won at least 2 more Oscars had it gone through the festivals.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterDg

Debicki is a great thought, but I think she may be crowded out by bigger names / bigger movies.

I'm going with: Colman (if she ends up here), King, Foy, Kidman, and Adams. If Colman goes lead, substitute in Stone (if she becomes supporting) vs. Robbie vs. Debicki as the fifth.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEvan

Jes -- i wouldn't be so confident yet about what Fox Searchlight will do with campaigns because really they could do anything they wanted with that film since it appears that all three women are leads. I expect in the end they'll go with star power and have Emma as lead and the others as support.

Murtada -- obviously i think. I've added her to the supporting chart. But I still think she's a total longshot because the movie is very offputting in a lot of ways. It's a strange film art film and I dont think oscar voters will respond.

Claude -- i dont currently but it's possible I'm underestimating If Beale Streets appeal since I wasn't bowled over. But she does have less screen time than a lot of her competitors and that does put you at a disadvantage.

September 22, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

MARTIN - lol. sorry. That was originally Kathy Bates column. fixed.

September 22, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Blake Lively in A Simple Favor - not even kidding.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBia

Adams is getting in no doubt. She is the best part of the film and breaking late will help her. Kidman won't get in for Destroyer, people do not like the film. All three women from the Favorite will not get in so someone will have to drop out. If it's Coleman in lead then only Stone or Weisz is in for supporting, not both.

September 22, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAdam

This year appears so stacked with great films and great performances in films that don't have a wider shot that I'd almost be disappointed in THE FAVOURITE getting three nominations.

September 23, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Adam : did you attend a test screening of Vice? Tell us more.

September 23, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMichael R

I agree that ADAMS is not over. I'm sure she'll have another chance next year with "The Woman in the Window". I read and liked the novel and her character (an agoraphobic woman living alone in New York begins spying on her new neighbors only to witness a disturbing act of violence) is very strong. Additionally, the film is directed by Joe Wright and costars Julianne Moore and Gary Oldman!
Having said that, I agree with several of you guys that -if she's not going to win for "Vice"- I'd rather they didn't nominate her.

September 23, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

not all are in for Kidman!!

September 23, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterrdf

I think Stone and Weisz both get in as Supporting with Colman as Lead! Since all three actresses have gotten rave reviews (with Colman leading) it would be silly assuming they’d leave either Weisz or Stone out! We have had double nominees in this category before!

October 15, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterParjanya

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