Best Actress - New Oscar Chart
Saturday, September 22, 2018 at 1:42PM by Nathaniel R
Beware the premature envelopers! The Best Actress race is far from over and it's very exciting. I still suspect that Glenn Close wins IF nominated but Lady Gaga could IF nominated (though we suspect she's just winning Best Song despite the early hoopla). And who knows, perhaps Olivia Colman in The Favourite will go lead (we still have her in the supporting chart) and from early reports she could also win IF nominated. Then you have Carey Mulligan and Melissa McCarthy, both arguably doing the best work of their careers. Nicole Kidman, Emma Stone, Emily Blunt, Toni Colette and Viola Davis all in very flashy roles or high profile films and Yalitza Aparicio as a highly sympathetic debut in a critical favorite.
The grid above shows you what we predict are the current top ten (alpha order) but a lot can change once the movies...
- Face the public
- Fine tune their Oscar campaigns and press play/
- Meet the first wave of precursors which will generally shun some worthy competitors and embrace others and in ways that are not always easy to predict until suddenly everyone is doing the same thing and it is.
Ah the agony and joy of Awards Season. It's not much further away. One thing is for certain. If any competitors from the first half of the year want to reemerge or move up the chart, they need a strong campaign. Only Toni Collette in Hereditary remains in the top ten from the year's first half and it's not because other contenders (Elsie Fisher, Charlie Theron, Rachel Weisz, Michelle Pfeiffer, etcetera... ) didn't do fine work, too. It's just people have short memories and they like shiny new toys.
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS: Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Foreign Film
Reader Comments (81)
I’m rooting so hard for Toni. Come on critics groups...
Hmmm. Best supporting actress is more exciting? I would move Viola up and Nicole down.
Question : alphabetically, is Lady Gaga classified under L or G? I know that Kristin Scott Thomas is classified under T. If her last name was hyphenated it would file under S. Just curious.
Michael -- haha... yeah. i ended up filing her under L but i guess is should have been G.
JF -- my concern with Viola is that she doesn't really have an arc in WIDOWS. she's kind of the same for the whole film (but Viola so fabulous) which is why i think Debicki is the one to watch for that film. Admittedly the Oscar voting base is changing so everything is up in the air now but if their past history is indication Kidman will make it in. It's just way too showy a transformation to be easily dismissed.
I also feel that Kidman will get in for Boy Erased over Destroyer. The situation reminds me a bit of Meryl Streep in 2002 : a stacked Best Actress race so a nomination in Supporting to honor both performances.
...but Kidman got a MAJOR early rave from Dargis in The New York Times so we'll see. Regardless, cannot wait to see her work in both films.
Thanks for all the work...
I am finding the last couple of years that there is SO MUCH talk about the movies and the awards worthy actors that when I actually see the movie and/or the performance.... I am disappointed. Does anyone else feel that way!!??
Glenn (and win)
Melissa
Olivia
Carey
One of the no-white actresses (Viola, Yalitza, Kiki) or former best actresses winners (Charlize, Nicole)
No Gaga. No Blunt. that's all.
@rdf, I often feel that way :)
...but Kidman got a MAJOR early rave from Dargis in The New York Times so we'll see. Regardless, cannot wait to see her work in both films.
I think if Grant is so strong in supporting McCarthy gets in,Close and GaGa feel locked in,Kidman to honor her resurgence and Boy Erased and a Favourite lady.
Glenn Close sweeping matters more than anything. Come through televised precursors.
Nathaniel’s #3 point is so sadly true.
We’re presented with an array of so many wonderful actresses doing terrific work that it makes a person giddy.
Then as the season goes on, somehow the really great ones are counted out. We’re left with a slate where 1 or 2 are of the marvellous actresses and the rest are either meh or why, oh god, why them when there are so many other better actresses to choose from?
Then people looking at the slate years later think, oh, it must have been a weak year. It is almost never a weak year. We are blessed with marvellous actresses year after year that we don’t appreciate enough.
So glad you mentioned Carey Mulligan and Maggie Gyllenhaal.
Still cheering for Toni Collette. :)
@Rod I am with you on all three.. but I fear it won't happen!!?
I think Viola has the goodwill to get in, not to mention that I suspect the movie will do well at the box office and thus have a good amount of attention.
Additionally, while I admittedly was cool on Destroyer, it seems like the kinda film that people will be keeping in the back of their heads all season as a potential latecomer that then fizzles when it lands. See also: A Most Violent Year, 20th Century Women, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool. Not only is it coming out so late, but everyone wants that movie to be something special since it's from Karyn Kusama... and it's just not. It's a standard procedural like all the others, only with Nicole in meth addict makeup.
I'm curious to see though what happens to Roberts. You're right that it's a lead role, but I'll admit it wasn't until you said that that I gave it any thought given that she's not the title character. I could definitely see them attempting category fraud.
My guess right now: Gaga, Close, Colman or Stone depending placement, Davis, and McCarthy.
I would include Thomasin McKenzie for LEAVE NO TRACE. She's a contender for sure... Of course she will share "Best Young" and "Breskthrough Performance" prizes with Elsie Fisher, but she's amazing in Debra Granik's latest (and Oscar folks are talking abput Ben Foster for Best Supporting Actor, which gives her som visibility)
What hurts Roberts IMO is a mid movie plot shift that has many early reviewers perplexed.
Too soon to tell, but “On the Basis of Sex” might be one of the most hotly topical movies of the season. You know, to the point where people half see the movie and the other half of their experience is what they’re feeling/thinking about the topic.
I also think Mimi Leder, the director, is underestimated. She’s been directing for decades and has a bunch of nominations for Emmys and from the Director’s Guild. Felicity Jones, the lead, is always reliably good, and Leder has a good track record with brisk narratives about gloriously tough women.
Roberts is my Dark Horse of the season.
Is Emma Stone even that good? I feel like she is the coasting on her name candidate with heavy studio push like Bradley and Ryan for the men.
At the emmys this year all the drama actress nominees would have been deserving winners. Now over here at Oscar we have so many worthy contenders. This is where it’s at. The lead actor categories have been a snooze for a few years now.
Also saw The Wife this week. I’m not even a Close fanboy but loved her and the movie. Would be so fine if she won.
Also echo the Thomasin McKenzie mention. I’d put her in the 4B tier. Beautiful work.
I have no idea why you ever thought Mary Poppins ever had a chance. It was a very different time when the first one got attention. Its just way too hokey. Maybe, mmmaaaayyybbbeee if it was a big success critically and financially but I doubt that too.
Jono, Emma's really really good. I think Colman has the flashiest role in a way but all of the ladies are terrific. Stone might even be my favorite (see what I did there?).
But I hate NIcole's wig.
Why is Keira Knightley still so low for Colette. She's had great reviews, as has the film.Could be the British darkhorse?
Glenn Close for the win... it's all that matters this year
To the extent that box office matters, Close has a problem. The film seems to be dying out there. I went with a gaggle of gays on opening night, the 9PM screening. We were the only ones in the theater except for a single male/female older couple. I mentioned this on Facebook (as a way to try to goad people to see it) and I heard back from friends that they had the same experience: saw it in a nearly empty theater. I know Julianne Moore won for a film hardly anybody saw theatrically, but usually that's a problem. That said, she certainly deserves it. I hope SPC plays their cards right.
Slightly off topic and I know I should wait, but: I watched the first two episodes of Maniac. Stone is pretty good in spite of the show overall being a MESS, both in terms of aesthetic ("Which era of sci-fi dystopia do you want to be?" "ALL OF THE ERAS." "Just the 'straight' ones?" "ALL OF THE DYSTOPIAS.") and characters. ESPECIALLY Jonah Hill, who sleepwalks through, like he knows he's just been handed the worst script of his career. And before you start to think this is a THX 1138 thing? Nope! NOT EVEN TAKING HIS PILLS! I gave it two episodes. And I just can't stick this crap out.
Maybe this is an age issue but I just don't se Matt Damon, Emma Stone, Jennifer Lawrence, McBongo, Brie Larson, Vikander, Ryan's, Chris's, Bradley Cooper as good actors. The fact that many of these get nominated and win will perplex future generations.
I think your bias might be playing a role in predicting a twoofer for Kidman for two films that won't plays as hugely elsewhere.
If Widows plays well with audiences, and it did with festivals, I think that and industry goodwill are enough to carry Davis along for a nomination. Close, Gaga and Colman will be duking it out for the win methinks. And McCarthy lands the final spot.
I am really not sold on Gaga being nominated.
Someone's going to get left out on Oscar morning and it's going to be a heart breaker. I know Toni isn't happening, which is already painful. Currently thinking Close Davis Gaga Kidman Stone... maybe McCarthy being frumpy will hurt her? Seeing her film tonight. I could absolutely see the Academy snubbing Gaga but we won't know til we know. Poor Mulligan - at least she already won an Oscar in my book years ago.
Evan:
I'm with you 100%. I think Close, Colman/Stone, Davis, Gaga and McCarthy is where we are right now.
In all honestly, I think Davis already has the kind of Hepburn/Streep "grand dame" status which will help her get in here. She is so revered that I think anytime voters can conceivably nominate her, they will jump at the chance to do so. And it's hard to be mad at that--she's one of the very best we have, and never won't deserve whatever praise she receives. Plus, she's a delightful presence and gives a terrific speech. PLUS, as she has frequently acknowledged, she doesn't, and likely never will, have access to the broad range of roles available to the white actresses of her generation of similar caliber and experience, so it would be pretty absurd, from my point of view, to begrudge her a nomination for any of the good roles she does have the opportunity to play.
That being said, I think it becomes problematic and unfair when we start nominating people for who they are, and not the work they do. Davis is wonderful in Widows, of course, just as Streep was wonderful in Florence Foster Jenkins. But was the work Meryl did in that movie more timeless, penetrating or skillful than the work Amy Adams did in Arrival or Annette Benning did in 20th Century Women? For my money, no. I love Viola, and if she is nominated for Widows, I'll be happy for her. She will deserve it. But will she deserve it more than Carey Mulligan, Maggie Gyllenhaal, or Keira Knightley, for example, who all gave dazzling, dynamic and memorable performances this year, which are likely to go unrecognized? I don't know. Davis deserved every award she won for Fences (and she deserved to win them in the lead categories instead of supporting), and she deserved the nominations she received (and really, deserved to win) for Doubt and The Help. But I don't think Widows is the kind of vehicle for her that those films were. So I will be curious to see if the Academy agrees and, if so, whether that actually matters in whether they check her name on their ballots or not, and what that in turn will reveal about the future of how they evaluate who is deserving of recognition.
Jes V: I think Streep is over-nominated but utterly deserved her FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS nod, even over the two people you mention. It was one of her ten best performances, if you ask me. And comedy deserves more nominations than it gets. If anything, that film, one of Frears's best, should have been nominated for in other categories: Simon Helberg supporting actor, best screenplay, art direction....
Glenn only needs the televised awards. She has only won 2 Globes and 1 SAG and always for her TV work so the "it's time" narrative fits perfectly.
Dan H:
https://media0.giphy.com/media/3oz8xsjrGkoZPIWtjy/giphy.gif
The pictures you picked for the women are so funny and psychological. No studio would approve them as head shots. What about Felicity Jones? She and Emma Watson are destined for bigger fame.
Wow what a line-up of wonderful actress performances this year.
I have to agree with someone who earlier said that there isn't really a 'weak year' in acting performances, female or male. There are several others who remain under the radar, un-championed, unheralded, etc. Global cinemas provide a plethora of powerhouse performances but maybe that's not what the Oscars is all about, so it had to be always (North) American/European with a few exceptions. I do like the yearly embarrassment of riches when it comes to truly original films with nuanced characterisations and narratives. I tend to see more subtitled films than English-language movies.
Maybe TFE is such a rarefied site where the members are a bit more passionate than in other blogs discussing the same, but I don't remember having seen this much enthusiasm and degree of debate as to who will get nominated. So it's exciting to hear very different and highly contrasting points of view.
I wonder if an ideal world where there is no studio campaigning will happen and Academy members will choose who they feel should win without pressure. I wonder who will win it this year if Oscar voters get to watch almost all of the eligible films. Will GaGa make it? Will Colman?
And I wish people were talking about Theron in Tully. Loved that performance.
Wow, this is so strong a year for acting especially best actress which looks like top 15 slots at the end all deserve to be nominated, and if Glenn Close actually won it would be so gratified. And Nathaniel's insightful updated Oscar Charts always such a fun read.
having a hard time seeing close winning this, or even getting nominated in such a strong year. Seems like nobody's seen the movie, Came and went from LA without much thoroughfare. And, in my eyes, the movie just isn't very good or memorable. She's strong, of course, but imagining her having staying power over formidable contenders in Gaga, Stone, McCarthy, Kidman, Davis, Collette, Colman (should they go that way) AND Mulligan seems like too big of an ask.
So many beloved actresses, so few spots....I'd go with:
1-CLOSE (not exactly a huge fan, but.... way overdue factor, why she didnt win for Dangerous Liaisons is just beyond everyone)
2-MULLIGAN ( She is always terrific, still think Oscars voters went for the wrong lady in Mudbound, what a mesmerizing turn Carey pulled off, and Blige was just ok, plus her snub for Shame and losing an Oscar for Sandra Bullock are more than enough arguments.)
3- THERON ( amazing film, brilliant performance, witty dialogue....Charlize can do no wrong.., plus her criminally overlooked turns in The Burning Plain and Young Adult.)
4-WEISZ ( another early bird, I'm rooting for her work in Disobedience- plus McAdams and Nivola in Supporting- She's yet again great in a difficult, layered role...snubs: The Brothers Bloom, The Deep Blue Sea, Agora)
5- McCARTHY (career best reviews, love her even in terrible films -a lot of them-, judge me, laugh out loud with The Boss.)
WISHFUL THINKING: ROBERTS, DAVIS, GYLLENHAAL , KIDMAN , CRUZ or KNIGHTLEY (just because I LOVE all of them and they seem to have strong work to put a fight.)
NO WAY; GAGA ( not yet convinced of her as an actress, doesn't matter how many great reviews I read), RONAN ( trailer looks terrible), BLUNT ( love her, really looovvveeee her but for Mary Poppins, really?) STONE ( so tired of her, that IS personal. )
NOT HAPPENING: COLLETTE ( fantastic actress way overpraised in Hereditary, as the movie itself is); FOY ( not for The Girl in the Spider's Web, maybe supporting for First Man ); PFEIFFER ( she's great as usual. but the film is too small, too arthouse and bleaky for the Academy).
How's Gaga's performance? I ask because I see praise everywhere for her from the people who've seen the film, but yet I keep seeing people hope she's not nominated because she doesn't 'seem like an actress' (whatever that means) IF this performance in particular is good enough to deserve a nom, then why doesn't she deserve to get it, even if she never has another good role again for the rest of her life?
Anyway, 4-months is a long time, I think Close is probably the only one certain to be nominated at this point.
Wat a great, insightful top ten list, Nat!! Bravo =)
I agreed w yo top 5 (Close, Gaga, McCarthy, Kidman & Colman/Stone) , but putting Mulligan in front of the enormously popular Davis seems a bit of a stretch...
I tink its only Sep and the race is still v fluid...there cld be still lotsa changes, w the premiere of more "prestige" movies in the next 3 mths - Hello, Mary, Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins 2, and the 20 other Oscar baity movies crammed into Oct to Jan...
Personally, I really like to see Blunt FINALLY get a nom, so if Mary Poppins goes down well (w a umbrella or two), I wild be v happy to see her snag a spot in the final 5. I love Stone too & heard tt she is sensational in The Favourite. After the snub for Battle of the Sexes this yr, I wld luv to see her back in the fold again, whether Lead or Supp..
Trivia: Mary, Queen of Scots is the great great grandmother of Queen Anne of the Favourite, Imagine if both Queens r nominated!! lol
What a great top ten. Wouldn’t it be a great rule change if there were ten performances per category?
Make Glenn wait one more. Page it up. She’s got another nom in her anyway. Then again, they probably wouldn’t give it to Colman and would give waste it on Gaga, so congrats Glenn.
The critics awards will be interesting because Close and Gaga don't *seem* like the sort of performances to win those, although - and this happens every year - once the organisations come along that do nomination fields of 5/6/9/12/however many, that's when they'll start to appear, I suspect.
Wonders need to happen for Kidman to snatch a nomination in Lead.
Destroyer won't have the Rabbit Hole critical acclaim
Destroyer doesn't have the Rabbit Hole grieving mother bait that Oscar loves
If Destroyer has the Box Office, maybe. But will it?
I am rooting for Glenn Close all the way this season. Have not seen the movie yet, but I believe the critics are actually rooting for her this year
Carey Mulligan is a young and respected actress that is a dark horse here. I am not sold on Davis, though she is a powerful actress, other roles may shine brighter than hers
So:
Glenn Close (legend narrative)
Carey Mulligan (young, respected, the nom is the price)
Olivia Coldman (the nom is the price, bet picture candidate)
Toni Collette (the nom is the price)
Yalitza Aparicio (the nom is the price, best picture candidate)
Runner ups:
Julia Roberts (the nom is the big price, former winner)
Melissa McCarthy (the nom is the price)
Lady Gaga 8the bon is the price, best picture candidate)
Nicole Kidman (the nom is the price, former winner)
Emily Blunt (the nom is the price)
Rachel Weisz (Disobedience) ( the nom is the price, former winner)