Best Actress Predictions - Is Saoirse In or Out?
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 7:45PM
by Nathaniel R
It’s strange to be entering an Oscar season where the Best Actor competition *might* be more thrilling than the Best Actress race. This never happens. At least not to us here at TFE where actresses are sacred and actors are, um, glorified seat-fillers...
Back in our April Fools predictions early in the year we predicted that this would be the first year where we ever have a majority minority Best Actress lineup but some time on now, the tide has shifted away from our history-making hunch of (Cynthia/Alfre/Jodie) enough to prompt an interesting article from Mark Harris in Vanity Fair last week about the “default” punditry surrounding the Best Actress category.
Just as that article was happening, though, we began to have faith in Lupita Nyong’o’s hardworking Oscar campaign for her very deserving performance in Us enough to predict it, showing Saoirse Ronan the door. But then, as if to mock our wishful Lupita thinking, a day or two later the reviews for Little Women suggest that Saoirse might have an easy in.
On the other hand (Oscar nomination guesswork is such a rollercoaster) the best thing we can say about the new Little Women, though this won’t help Saoirse, is that it’s radical enough to be less obsessed with Jo than previous versions. Yes, Jo is still “the lead” but Greta Gerwig’s version comes at the story from enough new vantage points that Jo is suddenly a part of a community rather than the whole show. Aunt March, Amy, Laurie, and even Friedrich all get richer characterizations than usual. So we shall see.
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Reader Comments (49)
In.
How to say this politely? If she's up against a non-white actress, she's totally in. I just read a profile defining her as The Meryl Streep of Her Generation.
Alfre's movie has a 5,9 on IMBD. Is it that mediocre?
Why isn't Constance Wu in the conversation?
Where is the Mary Kay Place banner? Can I pay for it?
Hmm. Maybe Cynthia is vulnerable to Saoirse given the chilly reception to Harriet? I would not underestimate the power of timing. Still seems like a weak year.
Though not showy as other performances, I hope Awkwafina gets noticed by the Academy and other critics groups. Being able to convey universal feelings in a language which is not your mother tongue nor you properly speak, is a huge accomplishment as an actor. She’s indeed culturally shocked, yet you can see, the unmistaken realization, that there is where she feels at home the most.
I would say she is in. Outside of Zellweger, I can imagine a scenario where any combination of your top 8 makes it in. I actually think the best actress race this year is quite fluid and exciting this year!
Under the leadership of former President Cheryl Boone Isaacs, AMPAS made a shift. Hundreds of invitations for membership were issued to women, people of color and international filmmakers. In addition, the old guard who had not worked in decades were removed from the awards voting body.
The shift seems to be up for the test this year. Certainly there are sufficiently worthy international films for consideration. The Best Actress race, in particular, will be interesting to see if this new voting body will generate a more diverse set of nominees.
Johansson - Ronan - Theron - Woodard - Zellweger
she's in
RZ is the only true lock in my eyes right now. Theron might be likely but I'll wait until it actually opens wide. From those of us who were lucky enough to see Clemency screened early, I'd trust word of mouth on Woodard and the good will behind the longevity of her career. I suspect she and the film will get solid enough reviews once it is out in December.
I think she's in if little women continues to be this popular ! Right now it holds 98% at rotten tomatoes and 90% at metacritc Also I think chalamet should be in contention too as many critics praising his performance and telegraph called him the secret weapon of greta gerwig.
Also I’m so happy that Zhao Shuzhen is becoming closer and closer to the nomination she deserves it
This year’s Best Actress race gets more interesting every day. Honestly, I can see Ronan getting left out in favor of the 3 presumed locks (Johansson / Theron / Zellweger) + any combination of Woodard, Nyong’o, De Armas, etc. I know Awkwafina’s movie is popular, but her missing at the Indie Spirits leads me to think an Oscar nomination is unlikely. What may hurt Ronan’s chances is the notion that she has no shot at winning this year. This could send her to the backs of voters’ minds.
"Here at TFE where actresses are sacred and actors are,um, glorified seat-fillers". Beautifully and hilariously put. Definitely one of your pithiest and funniest observations. Still chuckling.
I'm choosing to omit Zellwegger from my predictions. I might be wrong, but I'll enjoy it more anyway.
Right now, I'm predicting Johansson, Ronan, Erivo, Woodard and N'yongo
this race feels pretty yawn-inducing this year, which is such a bummer. makes me sad that toni collette/hereditary wasn't delayed for this year...in this field, i think she'd have an actual shot to WIN.
ronan is definitely in. she's extraordinarily well-liked and even revered by the hollywood community. i do think woodard stands a great chance of pushing through and joining renee, charlize, scarlett, and saoirse.
i thought awkwafina had some lovely moments in the farewell, but her lack of technique and vocal fry kept everything from transcending, in my opinion.
The Best Actor field has a wider slate of possible nominees while Best Actress narrowed down to those 8 fairly quickly, but I wouldn't say that Actress is less exciting than Actor this year. All 8 are incredibly strong and it's going to be a nail-biter. I would be very unsurprised to see an ARRIVAL or SAVING MR. BANKS level surprise snub again in this category this year... Johansson or Theron, maybe.
A thought: I do wonder if JUDY had the same expectations put upon it that HARRIET had, would Renee be so far out front? JUDY exists as the kind of biopic that's a so-so movie that exists as a star vehicle for its leading lady. Now we've discovered that that's exactly what HARRIET is as well... but those early Best Picture nomination hopes have made Erivo's current narrative having to overcome a disappointing movie, a hurdle that Zellweger never had to leap because expectations for her film itself were so low.
Renee Z has the juggernaut performance in the category. And second Oscars are sweeter when there's a time delay between them. It feels more earned on paper than someone getting their multiple prizes shotgunned to them because they had a small window of popularity.
I don't have the energy to discuss race and best actress. I rather complain about the denial of Black best director winners. All of sudden you direct the best picture but can't go home with the best director prize? Whatever said Streep.
Renee and Scarlett are undeserving. Renee is basically playing herself! There was no transformation. Scarlett is overrated. She is so bland and monotone. That would free up two spots for more talented performers. But they are locks because they can afford publicists.
I was blown away by Harriet Tubman
Grateful you are losing energy.
I don't know if Cynthia will make it. Her film did okay at the Box Office. But does anyone really love it or her in it? I feel like she got way more love for her performance in Bad Times, even though that clearly wasn't going to get her a nom.
Lupita will be out there for Star Wars as well, so it will be interesting to see how she makes time for a campaign. It seems like she has a strong narrative, and can make her way in the same way that Theron and Tomei did for their second nominations.
I really loved Zellwegger. But, could she be this year's Ethan Hawke. He felt like such a lock all year until he wasn't. I highly doubt she'll miss, and she's a globe lock, but it will be interesting to see how big her reception is.
Eh, Renee won’t win. Most say the film is meh and her performance, though touching, isn’t Judy enough. They’re not giving it to an actress who plays Judy Garland and avoids mimicry. But hey, I guess if you’re a betting person place your bets while Zellweger is short odds before the true contender comes to claim her prize.
The glorified seat-fillers thing is maybe half kidding but a pretty awful joke given that so-called film lovers really see movies as they want to see movies.
Having a preference is one thing but that's in bad taste.
I still think Lupita will succeed to get a nom based on her being mentioned in the critics awards repeatedly, and I will love to see it.
I second Peggy Sue n EricB predicted 5 at this juncture . If Little Women which is receiving raves now get into best pic, Saoirse will most likely get in as Jo is still the beating heart o the story, n Ronan is beloved n revered smong the voters
I actually tink tt Zhao Shuzhen has a betta shot at nom than Awkwafina.
I tink the final slot is between Woodard n Lupita now, w Awkwafina n Erivo a distant second
I'm always here for Saoirse but I hope it isn't Erivo she knocks out if she's in. I'd rather her replace one of the others.
I'm currently thinking this only happens if voters are on auto-pilot, but I guess we'll need to see how the precursors treat Ronan to know for sure.
Some of her reviews say it is a career-best performance, and she is a three-time Oscar nominee. And the movie will do great business over Christmas. It would be really surprising if she missed. It would be less surprising if any of the others - other than Renee - missed.
Gerwig should be around 7th or so in your director line-up, not 12th - it may be a real stretch for her to get in, but in the year of Hustlers, The Farewell, and A Beautiful Day, there is going to be considerable pressure on AMPAS to nominate a woman, and she is the woman who has the best chance because she has the history with AMPAS, the name recognition, the reviews, and the campaign. She may well miss, but she's not going to miss for James Mangold.
Suzanne -- i liked Little Women but to call it Saorise's best performance shows me that whoever said that has never thought much of her as an actress before! She's luminous as usual but it's hardly revelatory like Atonement or stretching what we thought she capable of like Lady Bird or even as purely transcendent as her leading lady coming out party of Brooklyn. emotional as If nominated I'd rank it dead last in her nominations though I do think she's very good in it.
honestly the hyperbole the early screening critics are willing to throw it disturbs me every time!
I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes the season of Saoirse. She's been a consistent box office performer, is well liked, and will be on her fourth nom. It's hard for me to see Theron or Zellwegger winning their second Oscars. The only people who have done that in the past 20 years have been in well-loved films by Oscar standards giving exceptionally strong performances (Swank, Blanchett, McDormand) or are seen as being overdue for their second (Meryl). Theron may be in the first category, but it's a bit too early to tell.
I think Ronan may win it.
I know this doesn't make much sense but I'm currently going with out. Expecting Bombshell/Little Women to eat each other a bit, landing them both nominations but neither a hit across the board (Bombshell out in Pic, LW in/Theron in, Ronan out/both in supporting actress, etc). There's only so much attention and time for voters for year end releases.
I think Ronan is out this year, but that if I'm wrong, and there's enough goodwill for the nod there (big film, bo hit, raves, etc. etc) she's the biggest threat to Zellweger's currently frontrunner status.
real suzanne -- forgot to say that thanks for pointing out the director rankings. I had forgotten to update that page but you'll see that Gerwig has moved up now.
Somewhat related, on the off chance that both Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig are nominated for Best Director this year, will they be the first married couple ever to be nominated in the same category in the same year?
Edwin: No - Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez won Best Original Song for 'Let It Go' as a married couple. But I think it would be the first time in the Directing category (though Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron were exes when they were both nominated in 2009).
Hi Claran! I didn’t realize Little Women was already so well reviewed. That gives Saoirse a leg up. Count me in with the Judy over praise. A black wig and mascara is not enough. This portrait by Renee paled when compared to Judy Davis’s earlier effort. At least the race is more exciting now.
Edwin & Edward -- and before them Alan Bergman and Marilyn Bergman won 3 music Oscars together as a songwriting married couple in the 1970s and 1980s
If LITTLE WOMEN is the hit it seems its going to be, I don’t see Ronan missing. All of her nominations have been from films nominated for Best Picture.
I can’t picture a Zellweger snub. Theron is getting enough “transformation” reviews to get in. I’m trusting most Johansson predictions.
I want to predict Woodard, but I have no faith in Neon. Correct me if I’m wrong in regard to her campaign, but they seem too busy with PARASITE to bother with their other releases. (PORTRAIT OF LADY ON FIRE will play for one week starting 6 December, then will get dumped on Valentines Day).
Erivo should be an easy-in: real life major historical figure. And the performance is very, very OSCAR!!!-y.
But right now I’m predicting Nyong’o. Comparing Jordan Peele’s last movie, I didn’t see a Kaluuya nomination happening until after the Globe noms came out. While US the film isn’t quite the cultural phenomenon that GET OUT was, Nyong’o’s performance hasn’t left the conversation.
Ok, you know what we want to know: Ryder or Ronan?
It is startling and quite sad that in a year where we have five women of color vying for Oscar nominations, there's a strong chance that only one will make it in to the lineup of five...alongside four blond, white actresses.
But who knows - nomination wise, the Best Actress category has surprised me the most this past decade!
Thanks, Nathaniel - how could I forget them?!
@Me: Hollywood's general treatment of women is in bad taste; what Nathaniel said was merely a tongue-in-cheek quip—that's all.
Baumbach vs. Gerwig certainly seems like the first time a married couple would be nominated against each other vs. with each other (though I may be wrong, namely in screenplay or song).
I saw CLEMENCY a few months ago at pressers for the London Film Festival (we're talking September here) and even though I had some issues with the choice to make the film truly feel airless, I can't stop thinking about Alfre Woodard in it. She really deserves that place on the lineup.
I think she's in, and not in the 5th slot.
I believe you have
Renee - lock
Charlize - lock
Saoirse - lock (they love her, and the film is getting excellent reviews - feel confident she's secure)
Lupita - she is working for it, and she was incredible - I think she just needed to remind people of the performance which she has been successful in doing
Scarlett (think she is very divisive, will split votes - and doesn't have the best track record with the academy - plus isn't getting talked about as much as the others in the film) - still thinking she might get that fifth spot but think she is vulnerable
I think 6th slot is pretty open - but would think that Alfre is above Cynthia. I *love* Cynthia - but just not seeing it for her this time. Alfre has Gotham and Spirit - if she can pick up critics awards and push the story of respected vet actress nominated 35 years ago I think she can pick up steam
Of the performances listed in your 3 tiers I’ve only seen Zellweger, Nyong’o & Wu and honestly would be delighted if they took 3 of the spots. Sight unseen I’d love to see Woodard & Ronan make up the 5 because in my fantasy Alfre wins and Saoirse continues to cement her status as best of her generation. I’m sure my thoughts will change once I get to see more of the performances in contention. I’m interested to see Little Women, Ladybird absolutely knocked me sideways with how perfect it was but I otherwise find Gerwig twee, pretentious and irritating beyond measure so I’m interested to see if Ladybird was an aberration or I need to reassess.
Edwin asks, "Somewhat related, on the off chance that both Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig are nominated for Best Director this year, will they be the first married couple ever to be nominated in the same category in the same year?"
The answer is a soft no.
Baumbach and Gerwig are domestic partners and have a child but have never married. Bigelow and Cameron were divorced before they competed against each other as producers of Best Picture nominees.
Best Picture 2009
Kathryn Bigelow Producer, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Producer, Avatar
I've only seen four of the Top 8 so far - Awkwafina, Scarlett, Renee and Lupita - but they are all very strong and the other four sound equally good, too. Which makes me think it's not such a weak year after all. It will be exciting if we keep getting variations of these 8 being nominated and not just the same 5 over and over. I don't want *any* locks this year!
I was initially sceptical about HARRIET but it seems to be really connecting with audiences and Focus pulled off an unexpectedly strong showing for both DARKEST HOUR and PHANTOM THREAD a couple of years back, so don't underestimate them. I think Cynthia Erivo could *win* Best Song too. 'Stand Up' has really grown on me; it's a great song. Can't wait to see the film, though it's not got a release date in Australia, where Harriet Tubman is arguably not very well known.
When they used to say 'Black films don't travel', that frustratingly often meant miniscule, long-delayed or non-existent releases in Australia.
OMG!! Gillian Armstrong juz stan Greta Gerwig n Little Women!!
https://www.refinery29.com/en-gb/2019/11/8908329/little-women-remake-gillian-armstrong-reaction
#gretaforoscar!!
I tink Little Women is gonna go far this xmas!! 😀
All I will say is... Amy Adams in ARRIVAL. Don’t assume a fave is a lock even with a best picture nomination, if a Huppert and a Negger come along, and I think there are those in the race.
Maybe I missed it ... but I would love to read more about your (or other) opinions Nathaniel with regards to Renee's solid frontrun - I haven't seen the movie so I can't judge but I'm still very reluctant to see it. Thought she is pulling the same sugarcoated mannerism that she's doing for years in the trailer and - ach.. I don't know... I liked Renee when she was younger (loved her 1st.Bridget & Chicago) but sorry something feels fake now.
Excited for the 25th "Little Woman" - I don't care ;-)