SAG Predictions from a SAG Nominating Committee Member!
Tuesday, December 10, 2019 at 6:11AM [Secret Guest Post]
Awkwafina announcing the nominees last season. I think she'll be nominated this year.Hello again to readers of The Film Experience! I previously shared a few reactions from our SAG nominating committee screenings including The Farewell and The Irishman and Bombshell and Little Women. The following are my predictions for tomorrow, NOT who I nominated (I nominated only 8 of these 30 predictions.)
LEAD ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
LEAD ACTRESS
Akwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Renee Zellweger, Judy
I’m skeptical about Ronan, Theron and Woodard in Best Actress since their screeners came relatively late...
POTENTIAL SURPRISE: Her Smell was one of the first screeners to arrive, so I would keep my eye on Elisabeth Moss. If you watched it (and made it through it), she’s difficult to forget.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
I’m just going with the Globe nominees here. Boring (and at least 40% category fraud), but boring is usually right.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
I’m going out on a little bit of a limb with this category. Bombshell, Little Women and (especially) The Report all came relatively late. Richard Jewell was only available for streaming, which (with its app downloads, passwords, etc.) is less user-friendly than DVDs. And as for Lopez…well, I really disliked the movie, but who knows; maybe others didn’t, though I have a hard time imagining actors voting for her in droves. Jojo Rabbit came early and it seems like the kind of movie everyone would have checked out.
ENSEMBLE
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Knives Out came late, but it seems tailor-made for this category. Could also be Once Upon a Time…or even A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Unfortunately, many of the films with large African-American casts—The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Luce, and Queen & Slim—never sent out screeners.
STUNT ENSEMBLE
The Avengers: Endgame
Ford v. Ferrari
Hustlers
Joker
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Who knows. I have no idea why they ask us to nominate for this, since most of the eligible movies don’t send screeners or hold screenings—and who knows if anything is real or CG these days, anyway? I’m predicting movies that actually campaigned —including, yes, Hustlers. I voted for it myself, because I think they’re referring to the strippers here, which is hilarious.
P.S. Well I was way off!
Reader Comments (18)
I'm not sure what the point of this is. I know since the AFTRA merger, not all SAG voters are actors, but I'd guess the majority still are. Why predict SAG based on what the Golden Globes do or whatever? I'd prefer insight based upon what performers/actors are looking at in performances when voting.
This "secret voter" keeps saying "who knows'. There is zero insight involved.
Would love to know what this voter actually voted for. SAG’s extremely small nominating committee often leads to bizarre choices (like Trumbo receiving three nominations in its year lol), so it would be fun to see if this voter was on the same page as the noms
no Best ensemble for Parasite?
Okay all the more reason for Oscar in Stunt if strippers are considered as stuntwomen now!
Leaving Dolemite out, especially Eddie Murphy, is really bold and a bit foolish.
I'm skeptical of anything that came out in December or late November getting nominations.
Release your ballot! The only juicy bits of this article are really the knowledge of which screeners were sent and how late. There’s been a lot of what I call ‘near miss’ articles lately, where an interesting story or idea has been viewed or written from a less interesting or less quality way. Nathaniel just a little more editor overview will remedy this instantly.
John Wick 3 isn’t eligible for Best Stunt Ensemble?
If all you have to offer Nathaniel is constructive criticism: F^CK OFF! This isn’t Yelp, and you need professional help. @Suzanne
Leave my girl alone Ryan. She has valid points. #Thelma&Louise4eva
This doesn't seem at all very insightful or helpful.
We'll see if this person's predictions are accurate. If not over 90%, I wouldn't invite them back. They don't really offer much insight along with their predictions.
Omg No Leo in lead and Once Upon in ensemble .... are you crackers?!
If Lupita miss this one she is for sure out of the race
My predictions (alphabetical order):
BEST ENSEMBLE
"Jojo Rabbit"
"Knives Out"
"Marriage Story"
"OUATIHOLLYWOOD"
"Parasite"
Alt-"The Irishman"
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Awkwafina, THE FAREWELL
Johansson, MARRIAGE STORY
Theron, BOMBSHELL
Woodard, CLEMENCY
Zellweger, JUDY
Alt- Lupita, US
BEST LEADING ACTOR
Bale, FORD V. FERRARI
DiCaprio, OUATIHOLLYWOOD
Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Phoenix, JOKER
Sandler, UNCUT GEMS
Alt- Egerton, ROCKETMAN or Davis, JOJO RABBIT
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
Johansson, JOJO RABBIT
Pugh, LITTLE WOMEN
Robbie, BOMBSHELL
Zhao, THE FAREWELL
Alt- Russell, WAVES
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alda, MARRIAGE STORY
Hanks, ABDITNEIGHBORHOOD
Pacino, THE IRISHMAN
Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Pitt, OUATIHOLLYWOOD
Alt- Jamie Foxx, JUST MERCY
Thank you Daniella Isaacs. It's increasingly hard to speak truth to the writers around here lately. When fantastic work and articles are just a few tweaks and approaches away it seems ludicrous at how defensive most of the writers and some commenters (Hey Ryan!) are.
Lol these predictions were wildly off. Find another “guest” contributor. This one was drunk
lol yeah yikes...
I see where your head's at (cool idea) but maybe the vauge impressions of one member/voter don't reflect...anything at all.
Lead Actor: 2/5
Lead Actress: 4/5
Supporting Actor: 4/5
Supporting Actress: 3/5
Ensemble: 2/5
Hmmm...