February. It's a Wrap
Sunday, February 28, 2021 at 12:00PM February kicked off with Sundance wrapping up and then went straight into mainstream awards nominations and predictions for Globes and SAG and well as decidedly non-mainstream Film Bitch Awards nominations (via myself). The Oscar nominations are yet to come but the Academy will be voting to determine them from March 5th-10th. So "freeze" the buzz in a few days time when considering your predictions. Nothing that happens after about the 7th will matter at all to the outcome. Are you excited for the Golden Globes (TONIGHT!) or is the need for a virtual ceremony killing your usual anticipation?
highlights in case you missed 'em
• Gay Best Friend: Rebel Without a Cause the original teen angst classic
• On whiplash viewings When you're loving something (I Care A Lot) and then suddenly aren't!
• Nathaniel's Top 10 of 2020 I Carry You With Me, Minari, etc...
• Pauline Collins in Shirley Valentine Baby Clyde has a fond memory
• Christopher Plummer (1929-2021) we'll always treasure him for Beginners
• Goofiest Globe Nods Christopher surveyed their often wacky choices
• FYC Never Rarely Sometimes Always Nick makes a passionate case
• Olivia Colman broke my heart Cláudio is moved to tears by The Father
most discussed articles
• When will you go back to movie theaters? Waiting for the vaccine or...?
• Surprise Noms or Snubs Coming? Christopher sees possible futures with stats
• Michelle Pfeiffer in White Oleander Cláudio looks at the painful snub
• February 24th in Showbiz History Judy, Tilda, Glenn, Madonna
• Nathaniel's Globe predictions which you can use to laugh at me once we discover it's all wrong tonight!
• How many female directors will be Oscar nom'ed? Juan Carlos on the five "most-likely-to"
COMING IN MARCH
Including but not limited to: an interview with Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Raya and the Last Dragon, SAG Awards, The Courier, Joan Crawford's Best Actress win, Gilda's 75th anniversary, the return of the Supporting Actress Smackdown, ... and of course the actual Oscar nominations.
Reader Comments (22)
Pike deserves a Razzie nom more than Close.
@whunk... and Gal Gadot and Pedro Pascal... why WW84 isn't in Screenplay, Picture or Director? wow.
Now that you've announced, excited about La Crawford and what you have to say about. And let's all watch or rewatch Mildred Pierce.
Excited by the Golden Globes? Yes! Hopeful for Hopkins, Hoult and Grant. And fearful (the Borat threat - praying that the show ends with them empty handed).
This Globes show is fucking horrible.
Fingers crossed for a Claudio take on Joan Crawford and Gilda.
I told you the Bakalova train ends here.
Glenn Close losing to Jodie Foster. Lmao
Jodie Foster the only one not predicted to win Best Supporting Actress, wins!
Globes ceremony was cringe-inducing, as expected, but the many curveballs were entertaining.
Wow Best Actress curveballs! Andra Day and Rosamund Pike are very much in contention and Vanessa Kirby might be vulnerable.
Does this mean either Andra Day or Rosamund Pike are winning the Oscar? LOL.
I still have my money on Carey Mulligan (maybe Frances) winning Best Actress, but I think it's proving that this weird season has influenced the choices and we might not have an obvious steamroll to the Oscars as per usual (and thank God, if so). I hope this introduces a new era where we can actually follow awards season rooting for our favs but being surprised along the way.
I still think Glenn is gonna win the Oscar, even though she lost...especially bc she lost to the least likely choice, and Maria Bakalova lost her category when people thought she was a slam dunk.
Maybe Rosamund and Jodie Foster are in the running for a nom more than we thought, and obviously Andra Day is way closer to a nod than we thought now. Or maybe she isn't, who knows.
Frances McDormand has now lost the Globe for both FARGO and NOMADLAND!
Andra, Rosamund and Jodie all missed at SAG and Jodie's the only of the three on the BAFTA longlist, so...
The Bakalova thing was really predictable. I'm sad Close is strolling to such a shitty win.
It was a terrible Golden Globes - even though Tina & Amy did their best - but wow, those actress winners really threw a wrench into Oscar season. I didn't think any of those 3 would make it to the final five in actress/supporting actress but who knows now. I think Day and Foster are serious threats for nominations now - Pike, I'm not so sure.
I could see the rest of the season with Davis/Yuh-Jung winning SAG and Mulligan/Colman winning BAFTA and then it's who knows come Oscar night. No one is steamrolling to Oscar, which is exciting.
The movie actress categories are a whole mess and I am here for it.
I think that the less damaged of the actresses is Bakalova, thanks to the explanation of Category Confusion, the late surge of Pike and that they won't be facing each other at the Oscars (remember Winslet / Cruz back in 2009). Bakalova is still posed to be nomiinated and probably win the BAFTA (over Colman, yes) thanks to the huge campaign by Sacha Baron Cohen, and the SAG nomination was the most difficult to get for a performance like hers, and she got it.
Close losing this one, as Colman, to Jodie Foster, of all nominees just confirms my suspictions that they are both behind Bakalova. I am talking for winning the Oscar, not for the nomination. Bakalova isn't a lock yet for the nomination, but the field is completely in her favor at this point, as losing this would shake off the feeling she's been "rewarded enough", and in difference to the Globes, all Borat supporters (there's love for the film, it's already obvious) will have to focus on her, rather than in Baron Cohen (who may win the Oscar as supporting, over Kaluuya, they really use the "body of work" thing in Supporting, think of Jim Broadbent winning for Iris, the same year he was snubbed for Moulin Rouge!.
So, after the GG, I think that Oscar will go something like
Picture: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (alt. Nomadland)
Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Actor: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Actress: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Supp. Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Supp. Actress: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Original Screenplay: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Score: Soul
Song: One Night in Miami (alt. The Life Ahead)
Cinematography: Nomadland
Production Design: Mank
Costume Design: Mank
Sound: Sound of Metal
VFX: Tenet
Make Up: Hillbilly Elegy
International: Another Round
Animated: Soul
@ Jesus
My gut tells me it's time to forget about Chicago 7 winning Best Picture. I'd put it at number 4, behind Nomadland, Mank and Minari. It might win three other Oscars, but I kinda doubt it.
@Working stiff
Original Screenplay + 1 Acting Win + Film Editing... PICTURE.
Screenplay only...if that. My crystal ball says it goes home empty-handed.