Oscar race: Supporting Actress Chaos & Supporting Actor Lock-up
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 8:00PM by Nathaniel R
don't despair ladies, you're the only two locks in "Best Supporting Actress"
We saw a tweet yesterday that implied that the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress is now between Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) which felt a bit insane to us. That's a Globe induced fever. Nevertheless the shock of Foster's win for a movie people have barely noticed does maybe tell us that the Supporting Actress competition is more fluid than assumed. So who is leading and who is going to be left out on the 15th when the nominations are announced? The way we see it there are 9 women left standing for various reasons (which is a lot going into voting since it's usually only 6 or 7 by now). Only two of them (Glenn Close and Olivia Colman) feel locked up for honors. Curiously despite the sure-thing feel of Colman's soon to be second nomination, it's unlikely she has ANY shot at a win. Her Oscar win is very recent and The Father isn't quite the contender it should be (qualitatively speaking) given its quiet campaign. But the nomination battle is always different than the battle to win.
Who gets the other three spots?
Close's competition for the win remains surely either Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Youn Yuh-Jun (Minari), or Amanda Seyfried (Mank) but each of them needs the nomination first and all of them have obstacles. Yes, Bakalova has been beloved by the precursors but at the end of the day it's still outlandish improv comedy which Oscar rarely goes for. Youn missed the Globe nods and she's also an Asian actress (the minority group that Oscar has been the absolute stingiest with in the acting categories, given the films that have been in competition) so she could still be passed over on nomination morning though that would horrify us. Seyfried has the benefit of being in what might be the nomination leader and paired with a major leading actor contender but she missed the SAG nomination and its possible the actors don't love Mank as much as the craft branches do.
All three could easily be nominated but the dark horse candidates are strong, too, so one OR EVEN TWO of them might fail to secure the nod.
There are four spoiler contenders still standing who could easily or theoretically sub in for any of them. Little German child star Helena Zengel nabbed both SAG and Globe nods for News of the World and the film is doing well with precursors; she has to be considered a major threat. In fact, statistically she's more likely than Youn Yuh-Jung though we think Minari love could be strong enough to offset that. Ellen Burstyn is a living legend and former Oscar favourite (6 noms and 1 win) paired with a major Best Actress contender in Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman. Coattails are a real awards thing. We've seen them drag people in time and time again. (Then again, Burstyn hasn't received much play this season so she feels unlikely).
And speaking of coattails... though she's received no attention yet, if there's any surprise nod on Oscar nominations morning in this category, Dominique Fishback would make more sense than Jodie Foster as she's paired with Supporting Actor frontrunner (?) Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah in what is a completely textbook Best Supporting Actress style role aka the "long suffering girlfriend/wife" part.
And then there's Jodie Foster. We think she's a Globe fluke since the HFPA have always deeply loved her (8 nominations, 2 wins, plus a Cecil B Demille Award) but you never know. The Globe win may be enough to get AMPAS voters placing that screeners in their players in the next couple of days and finally watching it.
We still think Glenn Close is going to win in the end but with 9 arguably viable contenders for 5 slots, nomination morning is going to sting for a few actresses and their fans. And then the race for the win begins. SEE THE CURRENT CHART.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IS MUCH LESS CHAOTIC
We're sticking with last month's predictions since there hasn't been much disagreement with the precursors in terms of this category. We think the nominees will be
- Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods (LOCK)
- Sacha Baron Cohen - Chicago 7 (LOCK)
- Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the BLack Messiah (LOCK/FRONTRUNNER)
- Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami (LOCK)
- Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
For the fifth slot we're going with critical darling Paul Raci even though he missed at both the SAG and Globes. History is filled with critics awards winners that failed to secure Oscar love but we think Riz Ahmed's strong campaign will help Raci squeak in. The coattails effect is often derided because unworthy contenders often benefit but it CAN be used for good and this would be benevolent usage.
Still that fifth slot might go to Bill Murray or Jared Leto instead if voters are feeling lazy and not watching their screeners and defaulting to familiar stars. IF there's a surprise we might see David Strathairn or Charles Dance or Mark Rylance or Glynn Turman pop up but that's unlikely. It would probably require chaos in the vote totals and a kind of 'character actor loving disgruntled voting block' hiding out there in Academy land, uninterest in many of the frontrunners. Haha.
OH AND HERE'S MY OWN BALLOT FOR THESE TWO CATEGORIES AT THE FILM BITCH AWARDS.
(Keep in mind that, as a staunch calendar year advocate, Judas and the Black Messiah is not eligible. Any film which is firmly a 2021 picture -- i.e. no premieres or play in 2020 -- is ineligible. And even if it were Daniel Kaluuya is not remotely a supporting actor since he's playing Fred Hampton in the Fred Hampton biopic. He's half of this titular character duet!
Reader Comments (108)
What a sneaky little bonus at the end - you're the best - thank you!
Still praying for a Seyfried, Colman, Yuh-Jung, Burstyn & Close
* Line-up - with Zengel as a lovely sixth alternate - can't believe that this category has turned into such a clusterfuck when it was looking like a Close coronation or a Seyfried stomp to the finish line! Curious to see how SAG and BAFTA play out!
I think the Supporting Actress nominees will be:
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Jodie Foster
Amanda Seyfried
Youn Yuh-Jun
Do you think Glenn Close will receive a BAFTA nomination?
Dan Stevens makes your Supporting Actor FBA short list! How fun.
I really don't want to see Close winning for THIS, though I wonder if voters are sadistic enough to vote against her and watch her handed another loss when she's favored to win. They might be!
Not sure who would be the alternate winner -- maybe Seyfried, as Mank might well go home empty-handed without her.
Gleen Close it's a wrap!
Danielle Fishback has the advantage of her film premiering at the right time. Voting starts soon and her film is the newest one out there. This strategy helped Rooney Mara get a best actress nom.
Really hope it isn’t Close, I think she’s awful in HE. I think that Youn is going to win, she was the critical favourite and Minari buzz is growing. Her or Close methinks, but I would love if it was Seyfried. My personal winner would be Jennifer Ehle in Saint Maud (hope her and Morfydd can score with Bafta. Loved that film)
Love it when you write these deep-dives on the acting races. I find it hard to believe that enough voters will overcome the comedic (let alone improvisational) nature of Bakalova's performance and role to hand her the win. I would call Close a lock for the win IF she hadn't been stiffed so often in the past. I won't believe it until it happens.
As for your personal ballots, I could not have predicted those awesome choices. Your lukewarm response to The Trial of the Chicago 7 led me to believe that you were also cool on the performances, so Cohen's inclusion was a surprise. And NOTHING prepared me to see Dan Stevens there, especially given how much distaste you expressed for that movie. I was going to skip it based on your review but now I guess I have to check it out.
And finally, YAY on Essie Davis. I preferred her a bit more in Babyteeth but you can't go wrong with either performance. She should be a star of Cate Blanchett's size.
I was thinking Maria Bakalova could get nominated (though it's Glenn's to lose), but after her Globes loss I am rethinking it. If they wouldn't nominate JLo in Hustlers, why would they nominate Bakalova for Borat? Hmm.
It's an exciting race to watch for sure. I do think Foster is much, much closer to a nod now.
I feel like they will want to reward Minari somewhere and Youn seems the most likely place for that to happen, IMO.
So if Glenn Close had won for The Wife like most people thought she was going to, do you think Olivia Colman would be winning this year since she’d still be Oscar-less and Glenn would already have hers?
What's going on with the Globes? They had the chance to award López and Seyfried -exactly their type- and they went with old veterans one of them in her pyjamas. Let's be clear. Foster is here to fuck up things, so bye Ellen Burstyn. Sad.
Why is everyone predicting Youn when the granny from The Farewell missed last year? Yes, it was just last year.
I hate child stars but loved Zengel. Coolest haircut in a western.
I have zero hopes in humanity so Raci is out.
If Dan Stevens doesn't get a bronze medal I'm never coming back here.
Its a lock between seigfried and Close but Foster may pull off an upset IMO
Edwin -- if Glenn had won two years ago, I don't think anyone would care enough for her to be in conversation with Hillbilly Elegy. And I think in that case Olivia would have a really good shot at winning as a recent runner-up for Best Actress.
Nathaniel, since you're usually so strict about it, I'm surprised you don't see Olivia Colman as a lead. That film feels like a true duet between father and daughter.... no?
Hilary Swank beat Annette Bening twice.
Just saying...
My prediction:
Glenn Close will be the Oscar morning snubee and we will have a lineup among the combination of Bakalova-Colman-Foster-Seyfried-Youn-Zengel.
So I don't care for the Glenndistas if they go after me for not believing their wishes of "Close IS WINNING cause she's SO OVERDUE". Nothing so far indicated the path is positive for her to win. Her film is a certified flop (Regardless personal opinions), she hasn't won anything and the Oscars had been off of the "career type" of wins. If her narrative about being the most overdue actress had worked, she could have won prior.
Hillbilly Elegy
Rotten tomatoes: 25%
Metacritic: red 38
Memoir of J. D. Vance, who idolizes Trump, Rush Limbaugh, and constantly made dehumanizing homophobic remarks on internet.
Glenn Close fans： I don't care. It's going to sweep and win the oscar.
The Foster win feels like a throwing hands up of sorts, an "I just don't know who so I like Foster a lot," coupled with a more even split between the other contenders than in year's past. For the Oscar, we're throwing Bakalova into the category which will muck things up even more. Frankly I think anyone nominated can win at this point except Zengel or Burstyn. Let's keep in mind that Close has yet to win anything of note for Hillbilly, the critics unsurprisingly hated it.
For that 5th slot in Supporting Actor, I am hoping for the best (Paul Raci) but anticipating the worst (Jared Leto).
After seeing MINARI, I'm confident that Youn is in. I was surprised at how recessive Steven Yeun's part is (I wouldn't be shocked if he was not nominated); I felt like Youn had the strongest arc of the main characters.
I thought Foster was terrific in THE MAURITANIAN and I'd love to see her nominated. It would also be great for Close to win in a year she is nominated alongside Colman and Foster, who won in the years Close probably had the best chance of winning (30 years apart, for THE WIFE and DANGEROUS LIAISONS).
@Sam, also:
Jodie Foster won the Golden Globes
BAFTA will have a different system of voting
The Oscar noms are prior the SAG ceremony
Glenn Close fans: Don't worry, Glenn will win the SAG and win the Oscar.
i read somewhere that the last winner of supporting actress at the globes who didn't go onto to a nomination at the oscars was katherine ross in 1976's 'voyage of the damned'
i'm really hoping for surprise nominations in every category after this crazy year
par,
Also, half of the snubbed Golden Globe winners in supporting categories had been ignored for their own co-stars. The recent example Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Michael Shannon. So unless Shailene Woodley is a surprise contender, Foster won't face that issue.
Mitch -- SPOILERS i thought about it and it is a large role. but the nature of the subjective experience and Hopkins POV means that Colman is offscreen for enough of the movie and sometimes shares her role with Olivia Williams so for me it's supporting. I can understand the argument for lead but I dont feel it in this instance... and you know i'm strict about it so when i dont actually feel bothered by a supporting campaign i am happy to go along with it./SPOILERS
BVR -- i really do hate that movie (i am violently allergic to Will Ferrel -- the least funny of the famous "funny" movie stars) but i genuinely loved Dan Stevens in it so much that I rewatched just his scenes and had a ball. The movie is crappy though. I'm annoyed that it's doing well in my own awards thus far. It's a crappy movie but it has a few really strong elements (costumes, music, dan stevens)
I'm not scared for Bakalova missing. I truly believe actors support her bravery and, as a profession that is often mocked as irrelevant, they seem to be in awe of the importance of what she accomplished through the power of performing.
They don't care if it's not traditional acting. She got in at SAG and that's voted by actors who allegedly know what acting is or isn't. When Rosamund Pike mentioned Bakalova in her speech, I felt like she was echoing what a lot of other actors thought about her in Borat.
Lucky -- i also think she'll get nominated but IF they shut her out, that'll be why. But i wouldn't hold SAG up as some great barometer of acting as they've had some truly terrible nominations over the years. They definitely have worst taste than Oscar's acting branch.
Glenn is not winning, come on now.
Glenn Close gives a powerful performance, so moving on so I would be very happy if she gets the nomination. She deserves all for this.
Why is Tahar Rahim not one of the frontrunners for the Oscar?
Can Colman be a shock omission? Close is guaranteed the win if they are both nominated in a "rematch". Close still all but strolls to the podium nominated in a Colman-less field. Only a Close snub will prevent her winning and I pray for he not winning for Hillbilly shit so hard!
Give Glenn some slack and let her win.
Outwardly it looks like a race but reading the feeling in the air: At last it's Glenn Close and a cigar! Hopefully the other categories can give us a surprise or two. A shame she wins for a lacklustre performance but the Academy will not be able to resist...... NEXT!
For the love of god please don't give Stevens a medal, I'll give you monthly coffee or something, but the promised benefit of a medal-less Stevens is too good to pass by!!!
Bakalova is out, probably for the nom as well one hundred percent for the win. We shall cherish the stellar critics run and a rare showing of exquisite and brave taste.
I’ve seen Jodie Foster once in 25 years living in L.A. and it was going into the HFPA office about ten years ago, whatever that implies about her Golden Globes win.
Are we sure Close is happening? It's odd to see her as the frontrunner and then losing the Globe to Foster. With a movie as critically reviled as Hillbilly Elegy, you have to take into account that some Oscar voters are going to be turned off by it, regardless of how good she is.
I have a feeling The Mauritanian is going to do very well with BAFTA. I can easily see an Oscar nomination for Jodie.
Ultimately, I have no idea what this category will be like, although I'm starting to think Bakalova is vulnerable. No matter how well she's done with precursors this is so not a role they typically go for.
I'm not exactly convinced on Fishback either. Kaluuya seems to have sucked all the air out of that movie. If anyone is getting a coat tails nomination, it'll be Ellen Burstyn. In this bizarre season, I think it'll help to be a living legend who has a juicy performance (just ask Sophia Loren).
I honestly don't think anyone except Colman (the one who can't win) is a lock for a nod. Foster really messed things up. The final lineup could go so many ways.
I really wonder just how many members of AMPAS are actually AWARE that Glenn Close has never won an Oscar. When you’re such a legend, and given as iconic a performance as Alex Forrest, I’m sure there’s a lot of people who just assume you’ve already won. I think that may have played into her surprise loss for The Wife. Regardless, I really hope she wins this year even if it’s for a mess like Hillbilly Elegy.
Close is not going to be nominated
Calling Close a lock is irresponsible IMO. I am predicting her to be snubbed. Her Globes nomination was all about reacting to what they think will happen at the Oscars, and her SAG nod is nearly irrelevant when they also nominated Adams. The movie is too American and too lowbrow, which works for SAG but won’t cut it with AMPAS. Youn is winning this either as the way of honoring Minari, or as the win to go with Minari’s BP triumph. Picking her would be classy and also speaking to the heart — and let’s be honest, makes them look good for finally awarding an Asian performer (which I think will be a big deal in the media when the nominations come out). I think she’s winning even if she doesn’t win anything on the way to the Oscars.
GusCruz - I agree. I think Glenn is vulnerable. And even if she is nominated Youn will be a huge threat to her winning.
@GusCruz-same idea
Close is going to be nominated and win.
Foster's win at the Globes showed that Close winning Oscar is not that obvious.
IMO she's not even a lock now because why should they nominate her for the 8th loss?
Seyfried surely won't win: she did not get the Globe and she isn't nominated for SAG.
Colman so quickly after "The Favourite"? Doubtful.
Bakalova probably even won't be nominated - her Globe loss makes her this year's Jennifer Lopez.
I'm beginning to think that it will be Youn. If she wins SAG then she might be the winner at the Oscars too.
And the nominated five? Colman, Youn, Zengel, Seyfried, and Foster.
Foster might be 'a Globe fluke' but it would be the first case in 44 YEARS that the Globe winner of her category wouldn't be nominated for Oscar.
Someone you answered your own question.
"IMO she's not even a lock now because why should they nominate her for the 8th loss?"
Because if she is nominated (as I believe she will be) it won't be for another loss as you yourself have admitted would be the case.
Nathaniel, do you think in any other year, Kaluuya would have campaigned in lead? It's just the circumstances this year meant that if he went for Lead, he wouldn't win.