Oscar race: Supporting Actress Chaos & Supporting Actor Lock-up
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 8:00PM by Nathaniel R
don't despair ladies, you're the only two locks in "Best Supporting Actress"
We saw a tweet yesterday that implied that the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress is now between Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) which felt a bit insane to us. That's a Globe induced fever. Nevertheless the shock of Foster's win for a movie people have barely noticed does maybe tell us that the Supporting Actress competition is more fluid than assumed. So who is leading and who is going to be left out on the 15th when the nominations are announced? The way we see it there are 9 women left standing for various reasons (which is a lot going into voting since it's usually only 6 or 7 by now). Only two of them (Glenn Close and Olivia Colman) feel locked up for honors. Curiously despite the sure-thing feel of Colman's soon to be second nomination, it's unlikely she has ANY shot at a win. Her Oscar win is very recent and The Father isn't quite the contender it should be (qualitatively speaking) given its quiet campaign. But the nomination battle is always different than the battle to win.
Who gets the other three spots?
Close's competition for the win remains surely either Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Youn Yuh-Jun (Minari), or Amanda Seyfried (Mank) but each of them needs the nomination first and all of them have obstacles. Yes, Bakalova has been beloved by the precursors but at the end of the day it's still outlandish improv comedy which Oscar rarely goes for. Youn missed the Globe nods and she's also an Asian actress (the minority group that Oscar has been the absolute stingiest with in the acting categories, given the films that have been in competition) so she could still be passed over on nomination morning though that would horrify us. Seyfried has the benefit of being in what might be the nomination leader and paired with a major leading actor contender but she missed the SAG nomination and its possible the actors don't love Mank as much as the craft branches do.
All three could easily be nominated but the dark horse candidates are strong, too, so one OR EVEN TWO of them might fail to secure the nod.
There are four spoiler contenders still standing who could easily or theoretically sub in for any of them. Little German child star Helena Zengel nabbed both SAG and Globe nods for News of the World and the film is doing well with precursors; she has to be considered a major threat. In fact, statistically she's more likely than Youn Yuh-Jung though we think Minari love could be strong enough to offset that. Ellen Burstyn is a living legend and former Oscar favourite (6 noms and 1 win) paired with a major Best Actress contender in Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman. Coattails are a real awards thing. We've seen them drag people in time and time again. (Then again, Burstyn hasn't received much play this season so she feels unlikely).
And speaking of coattails... though she's received no attention yet, if there's any surprise nod on Oscar nominations morning in this category, Dominique Fishback would make more sense than Jodie Foster as she's paired with Supporting Actor frontrunner (?) Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah in what is a completely textbook Best Supporting Actress style role aka the "long suffering girlfriend/wife" part.
And then there's Jodie Foster. We think she's a Globe fluke since the HFPA have always deeply loved her (8 nominations, 2 wins, plus a Cecil B Demille Award) but you never know. The Globe win may be enough to get AMPAS voters placing that screeners in their players in the next couple of days and finally watching it.
We still think Glenn Close is going to win in the end but with 9 arguably viable contenders for 5 slots, nomination morning is going to sting for a few actresses and their fans. And then the race for the win begins. SEE THE CURRENT CHART.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IS MUCH LESS CHAOTIC
We're sticking with last month's predictions since there hasn't been much disagreement with the precursors in terms of this category. We think the nominees will be
- Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods (LOCK)
- Sacha Baron Cohen - Chicago 7 (LOCK)
- Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the BLack Messiah (LOCK/FRONTRUNNER)
- Leslie Odom Jr - One Night in Miami (LOCK)
- Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
For the fifth slot we're going with critical darling Paul Raci even though he missed at both the SAG and Globes. History is filled with critics awards winners that failed to secure Oscar love but we think Riz Ahmed's strong campaign will help Raci squeak in. The coattails effect is often derided because unworthy contenders often benefit but it CAN be used for good and this would be benevolent usage.
Still that fifth slot might go to Bill Murray or Jared Leto instead if voters are feeling lazy and not watching their screeners and defaulting to familiar stars. IF there's a surprise we might see David Strathairn or Charles Dance or Mark Rylance or Glynn Turman pop up but that's unlikely. It would probably require chaos in the vote totals and a kind of 'character actor loving disgruntled voting block' hiding out there in Academy land, uninterest in many of the frontrunners. Haha.
OH AND HERE'S MY OWN BALLOT FOR THESE TWO CATEGORIES AT THE FILM BITCH AWARDS.
(Keep in mind that, as a staunch calendar year advocate, Judas and the Black Messiah is not eligible. Any film which is firmly a 2021 picture -- i.e. no premieres or play in 2020 -- is ineligible. And even if it were Daniel Kaluuya is not remotely a supporting actor since he's playing Fred Hampton in the Fred Hampton biopic. He's half of this titular character duet!
Reader Comments (108)
"Because if she is nominated (as I believe she will be) it won't be for another loss as you yourself have admitted would be the case."
Wouldn't be for a loss? :) She did not win the Globe and she won't win BAFTA (she probably even won't be nominated).
We'll see in a few days if she'll get Critics' Choice.
If not, SAG would be her only hope. And how many people have won having ONLY SAG of those four?
And, to be honest, I'm not convinced that she will win SAG. She did two years ago, she doesn't have to once again there so...
Listen: I am no Glenn aficionado (I have only ever seen Fatal Attraction, Albert Nobbs and The Wife of her nominated performances). I don't care particularly if she is nominated for this movie. But this narrative about Hillbilly Elegy being the worst film of all time is disingenuous as fuck. The terrible RT score is not proof of it being terrible - it's just proof that critics and Film Twitter went after this movie because of its perceived political message.
Because objectively it's a perfectly serviceable if uninspired 90s style family drama with some ham bone performances. And - as Nathaniel rightly points out - Close is the best part about it, so she should get some credit for elevating the material. I am yet to see a criticism of its awfulness that is based in something tangible. Just vague assertions about its politics or what not. Why are we pretending that it would discredit the Oscars for Close to be awarded when Allison Janney, Laura Dern, Rami Malek, Gary Oldman and countless others have won for far more egregious performances.
On the subject of Bohemian Rhapsody, the delusion was strong with that one right up until Oscar night, and I see it as much the same here regarding Glenn. If you won't predict things because they don't align with your politics, then you are doing it wrong.
Release dates are weird. Technically almost all of these movies are 2021 movies by the release dates of my country but I’m going to count them as2020 still. Whatever the original date is. And even Sound of metal and first cow are going into my 2019 lineups. It just makes more sense in when looking back and editing.
we have the same quintet of likely nominees... Bakalova, Close, Colman, Seyfried and Youn. I think that the only really vulnerable of those is Seyfried... but in that quintet, Bakalova clearly stands out, like by a landslide, and I don't think it will matter how "untraditional" her role and performance is, actually, if nominated, it's like a no brainer that she should win by default (Close: honorary Oscars are there for a reason).
At this point, I think it is almost settled 3 out of the 4 acting wins, and the only one I am a bit in doubt is lead actress: I say Mulligan, but...
Actor: Boseman
Supp. Actor: SBC
Supp. Actress: Bakalova
at this point, I would be scratching my head if those 3 aren't winning it.
@Nathaniel...
I take the absence of Bakalova in your Film Bitch Awards as she's one of the five nominees in Lead (given that you stated clearly that nominees at the main categories were not ellegible for the "breakthrough" nominations, and Bakalova is clearly the breakthrough of the year). Am I wrong?
Hmm Jesus your Bakalova prediction will turn on you like Judas did your namesake. I wish your delusions were true, but Close could win not a one major award and still walk away with the Oscar, especially if Colman is there to remind them of her recent loss. As someone admitted earlier in the thread, the Academy won't nominate Close just for an 8th loss. She in, she wins. Her name called on nomination morning: Game Over Man!
It's a big leap to say that if Raci doesn't get nominated, it's because Academy members are lazy and aren't watching their screeners. I've seen the film and think Riz Ahmed is nomination-worthy, but I do not understand the gravitation toward Raci. I understand that others do, but for me, he was just an average part of an ensemble, nothing special. Meanwhile, I think Bill Murray is great at masking loneliness with a debonair pretense in On the Rocks; he would definitely make my ballot.
It's hard to defend the idea that people are voting based on name recognition and then put Glenn Close in your top 6 for a performance that wouldn't get any awards recognition if it had been cast with a capable character actress (Margo Martindale, say). The push for the nomination there is all about the performer and not about the performance.
Judas (fake name... troll?)
some Oscar history... the winner is a balance between "uniqueness", momentum, consistent precursor love and dueness among other factor. Here's Bakalova's case on these aspects.Fasten your seatbelt.
1) When a breakthrough young comedic performance gets into the final quintet in S.A., it normally WINS. Goldie Hawn, Mira Sorvino, Marisa Tomei, etc. Specially if she has the "it" factor. Recent exception: Melissa McCarthy, that no offense, ain't a "pin up" girl.
2) The "oh, it's so cute" factor. Anna Paquin, Tatum O'Neal join this wagon as well. Bakalova's feel like a discovery.
3) Her campaigning has been clearly indicating how DUE eastern european performers are for a chance in Hollywood.
4) Also, how DUE is for some recognition, this kind of comedy. Remember, this is the industry voting and they are sympathetic to such a claim (as hinted by McCarthy's nom several years ago with Bridesmaid, a film that was a huge hit but hardly the landmark in comedy - and politics - that Borat is)
5) Even many Close fans don't want her to win for this one. They even claim that it is better that she isn't even nominated, so she doesn't need to go through another deception, and to fast forward to her next deserving performance or the honorary award she's already granted to have.
6) Borat 2 is a WGA + SAG + Globe + Critics Choice nominee (in some category) and is almost locked for BAFTA as well. Consistency in one of the year's most important films. Something Hillbilly Elegy hasn't.
There's the chance that Close pulls off an Iron Lady. Certainly it is. But she's not playing Margaret Thatcher and Streep was raved while the film was savaged... Close has been nominated for the Razzie for that performance... do you really think a Razzie nominated performance has a real shot to win the Oscar? That's your fact check
And Close is Bakalova's main competition... let's see the other ones
- Foster just appeared out of the blue and has 2 Oscars. Hardly "due" and the film is underseen
- Colman won a couple of years ago, and the star of the film is Hopkins, who CAN'T win.
- Youn is in a Best Picture lock for the nomination, however AMPAS never nominated an asian performer for a foreign language performance here. It could happen but it's a longshot, and Oscar tends to favor new faces (they did not tremble to snub Gloria Stuart, a living legend, for Titanic, that swept with 11 Oscars... Stuart was one of the easier Oscars for that film, to win)
- Seyfried would be winning it, if Mank didn't lose so much steam and her role was showier and full of Oscar clips. Her role is mostly quiet and subtle, Oscar doesn't normally go for those, they want their Oscar clip!
- Burstyn is almost forgotten by now
- Zengel... for a child to win, they have to be at the same level than their costar (Tatum and Anna) with dialogues thrown like knives. Zengel's performance is mostly quiet
... and that's it. Bakalova has most of the cards. It's a tight race, but it's non-sense to think Bakalova isn't winning this, given the precedents and elements of analysis. The only factor against her is the comedy bias, but when you look at the precedents that AMPAS actually gave it to a comedic performance, they're almost Bakalova's lookalikes in factors.
Oscar predictions
Close
Foster
Burstyn
Seyfried
Colman
My Nominees not seen Foster,Colman or Mahaffey
Amanda Seyfried
Ellen Burstyn
Olivia Cooke
Talia Ryder
Youh Juh-Yun
Colman is a lock for a nomination, but a second Oscar so soon? I don’t think so.
Seyfried lost the Golden Globe, and was not nominated for the SAG. An Oscar win? Probably not.
The nominations for Bakalova, Foster and Burstyn will be their awards.
So, if Close is nominated for the Oscar, she Will win.
If she is not , I don’t know. Maybe Youn ?
Oscar predictions Supp Actor
Raci
Odom Jr
Cohen
Kaluuya
Murray
My Nominees
Mark Rylance
Paul Raci
Leslie Odom Jr
Murray
Howard
The Jodie Foster win feels pretty big. For the past 40 years, Globe winners have been nominated. She's also familar to the Academy and she has enough scenes of her giving the type of supporting performance they like (tough female lawyer who' gets emotional at the right moments) to be nominated. She's this year's Kathy Bates.
I usually hate predicting so-so kid performers, but I think Zengel is in. Her studio will push her really hard.
I think it's very easy to see them snubbing Close. If they didn't give her the win for her towering work in the Wife when the rest of industry and critics seemed to be rallying, why give her the award for a film no one really loves?
Locks
Colman
Probable
Seyfried
Zengel
Likely
Yuh-Jung
Foster
Close
On the Outside
Maria Bakalova
The biggest thing that could help Glenn get in is netflix. If they think she can win, which they probably do, I think they'll push her harder than even Seyfried, who is more of a coattails nom.
If Leto won do you think he'd do his character's Pretending to be an Overweight Bum walk.
Luke, Bohemian Rhapsody was a major hit and won the Golden Globe for best picture. I wonder if the inability for box office to reframe films as successes or failures (away from critical acclaim/opprobrium) will have an impact.
no guts no glory... SWANKIE - NOMADLAND
@Jesus Alonso: Bakalova won't even be nominated so she can't win.
And I have nothing against Bakalova or Close. The same with Zengel, Youn or Seyfried. All good performances, but none of them really great, to be honest, so it isn't maybe that surprising that Foster won the Globe (I haven't seen her but I can imagine that she can be better than all of them :P ). I haven't seen Colman too so I cannot judge.
That being said, it looks like 2 out of 3 won't be nominated: Close, Bakalova, Seyfried. And as for now I think that Seyfried will be and the other two will not, simply because she has a stronger movie.
I'm pretty sure of Colman, Youn and Zengel now. And Foster because, you know, Globe is a Globe. She might be this year's Aaron Taylor-Johnson but he's the ONLY supporting winner (of both categories) in the last 43 years that wasn't nominated for Oscar so... And even in his case, the Academy nominated supporting actor of "Nocturnal Animals" but simply changed him for Michael Shannon.
This is a great point about Fishback, and it matches my own thinking after the Foster win. " if there's any surprise nod on Oscar nominations morning in this category, Dominique Fishback would make more sense than Jodie Foster as she's paired with Supporting Actor frontrunner (?) Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah in what is a completely textbook Best Supporting Actress style role aka the "long suffering girlfriend/wife" part."
At this point, pre-BAFTA, my hunch is Close, Colman, Foster, Seyfried, Youn. SAG winner takes the Oscar.
Jesus -- you drank all the koolaid with Bakalova! I admire your passion and you have some sound reasoning -- though i'd disagree heavily that what she's doing is comparable to what Tomei and others were doing in their films (this is a unique beast of a performance). Mostly though I have to disagree vehemently with the 'Glenn Close is guaranteed an Honorary' statement. NO ONE is guaranteed an Honorary. They have let so many legends die without giving them one and they've made several bizarre choices over the years AND there's the not small matter of sometimes they want to just rereward winners instead of getting around to the long list of those who've they always undervalued.
It's never guaranteed. I can think of at least 10 other actors who are as worthy as Close who are still alive and most of them will go to the grave without one It's frustrating but there are so many non-Oscared living legends that I think will die without one because who knows what's going on with th board of governors and politics when they make these decisions?
DIED WITHOUT AN HONORARY DESPITE BEING OBVIOUS CHOICES THAT EVERYONE WOULD HAVE APPLAUDED... (AND THIS LIST IS OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD SO THERE'S PROBABLY 100+ MORE LIKE THEM.)
Eleanor Parker
Max Von Sydow
Carrie Fisher
Christopher Lee
Albert Finney
Richard Burton
Alan Rickman
Penny Marshall
Lynn Redgrave
Jill Clayburgh
Sam Shepard
John Hurt
Alan Parker
Doris Day
Omar Sharif
Bakalova is no better than Close and i'd rather have neither nominated.
Lisa -- no i don't think he would have. Studios now rarely consider running truthful campaigns if they have two leads of the same gender. So he was bound to go supporting... i'm sure the excuse is that he has slightly less screen time than Stanfield (since there's a stretch where he's in prison)... but it's a classic case of a two lead film. It's not unlike that other double titular Judas story "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" only in that case they made the POV Judas character the "support" and the assassinated character the lead... so this is just that reversed. I've said it over and over again but if Thelma & Louise were released today, one of them would have been campaigned supporting.
Seyfried
Colman
Youn
Bakalova
Close
Foster
@Joe G: "A film no one really loves." That's actually quite untrue. I personally do not like the film even though I think Close did the best work in it. But I've seen many people on Facebook talk about how much the film moved them, etc. It is critically reviled, true, but that hasn't gibed with the public reaction at large.
Nathaniel do you think there was a specific time or film, since Thelma & Louise obviously, where the perception of it not being possible to have two leads of the same gender nominated from the same film? I'm thinking about Shawshank perhaps which just got Freeman and not Robbins although they both got lead SAG nods. (As Robbins' Oscar campaign must have been lead)
I really hope the Borat girl won't get a nomination! The only reason people pay attention to that cheap performance is that she pranked the lawyer..
I consider myself kind of a what I imagine a usual Oscar screener watcher is like in that I care about the races, but not enough to strategize or anything, sort of like your typical voter. There were three "major" films this year that I just could not finish because they were either gross or boring. They were:
Da 5 Bloods
Hillbilly Elegy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Just throwing it out for a different opinion. Also, one of my favorites was Sound of Metal but I don't think Paul Raci did "all that" so that's another thought out there.
Also, if Viola Davis went supporting, which could sort of be argued, then I think she'd have her second Oscar.
Oh, and this isn't the place but if enough people see US vs. Billie Holiday, Andra Day will win for sure. It is very reminiscent of La Vie En Rose, but here she is doing her own singing. Even if the movie itself is an uninspired biopic.
I loved Close in HE but I have a hard time believing she'll win for a film this critically reviled. I am not even sure the nomination is secure.
whunk -- i agree with that. general public feelings about film is often vastly different than criics and i've always believed that the Oscar populace kind of fitts neatly inbetwen the two poles. Their taste is more refined than the average moviegoer BUT they also sometimes love mainstream appeal hits that critics might roll their eyes at. With HILLBILLY ELEGY it's hard to tell. Had it been a theatrical releaese in a typical year we might know more about perceptions of whether or not it was "successful"
@Nathaniel: It's hard to know, but my feeling is that being easily streamable and sort of the big! new! film! on Netflix the week it came out helped it greatly with casual viewers. No doubt it would never be a BP contender after people saw the film, but it seems well-liked enough by many that they want to reward it in some capacity. Which, rightly, turned out to be Glenn Close's best-in-show performance.
I feel like a lot of people in the comments are treating this like any other year. We have TWO MONTHS until Oscars. As the Globes have shown us, crazy things can happen.
I do think that if Glenn Close were to get nominated, she very much WANTS Olivia Colman to also be nominated because the press/storyline for that category would be ALL ABOUT their re-match which would benefit her since it'll remind people that she is still owed an Oscar.
@Nathaniel
1) how many of those names snubbed from honorary are... you, know, American? The list will be consistently reduced if you remove the non-american names.
2) Bakalova... oh well, don't get mistaken. I think Bakalova should win any given year, but for example, I also thought Colossal was the BEST picture of its year and in no way I ever said it stood a chance for being nominated anywhere at the Oscars. What I say about Bakalova is pure, objective analysis. Reread all the reasons I gave, and they are truly objective, based on precedents and facts. There are enough precedents, and also the SAG indicates that her fellow actors took her seriously enoough (she's nominated in the most difficult group, to be taken seriously, as the Sacha Baron Cohen snub in the original Borat, proved). When you compare the roles of every other competitor in that category, it's Bakalova the only one that offers anything really distinct or unique... huge callbacks to the races that saw Goldie Hawn, Marisa Tomei or Mira Sorvino as winners (or Tatum O'Neal or Anna Paquin, for the matter). The only similar case that didn't end in victory was Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids and she lost to a Best Picture nominated performance, but also because she didn't have the "it" factor, her character wasn't that much sympathetic (she was funny but too over the top, and without a proper character arch, if you ask me) and also McCarthy was only part of a huge ensemble of worthy actresses and performances. Again, I can see Bakalova missing the nom, for sure, I don't think she's locked (I think the only locked nomination is Colman) BUT, if she's nominated, she's in the lead for the win, because she's the performance that really stands out from competition.
And that has nothing to do with the fact that I'd love to see her winning. Specially since, to me, she's in the wrong category, she's a co-lead and I am against rewarding leads as supporting.
@Suzanne! You are so right.
Ryan T.: Ask Annette Bening how her rematch with Hilary Swank worked out...
Maria Bakalova won't be nominated. It's not the kind of movie and role they go for in acting categories.
Close-Colman-Seyfried-Youn
5th: Foster, Burstyn or Zengel
But no one else is even talking about HE except critics and "Film Twitter."
Confirmed, thr Glenndistas are the most delusional group of stans we have in Oscar races right now. Between inventing excuses, twisting arguments or wanting to put their wishes as facts.
Now it's the excuse of "but if Colman is nominated around Glenn the headlines are here"
As if this works to Annette Bening or Steve McQueen. If so, the Jodie Foster's GG add more salt to the injury: "They don't care about Glenn"
"HE is so liked on Facebook"
No doubt, but even if you make a better search you can find average people liking "Life as a House" or even "J. Edgar". Even the most critizied films here like "Bohemian Rhapsody" or "The Bkind Side" had shown broader acceptation (critics and audience awards).
Beside, Oscars wants "rooting factor", "underdogs successful stories", not stories of flop or losers of the race. In that case that was Netflix mistake. They should retain the film till Feb and releasing, when the critical reception wasn't enough strong.
"Glenn Close has the overdue factor"
And that cared in 2018? Or 2011? Perhaps AMPAS as a whole doesn't care either. Makeup/Career Oscar for the sake of it don't happen anymore. Even if she gets that 8th nom is not guaranteed.
Yes working stiff
If the GG showed us something, for all the talk about Netflix having the opportunity of dominate the Oscars and look, they only won two film award. Searchlight and Disney were still dominant
If it wasn't precisely for the critical backlash no one would care about HE at all (as their numbers of audience per Netflix showed). But still the stans comsider this as if it was the new Bohemian Rhapsody lol.
It's certainly an exciting race to predict, and at this point I don't think anyone is a lock. Many people want Close to win simply because she's long overdue to be honored. But I'm just not confident the Academy will do so for this performance. Plus Jodie Foster's Globe win has certainly shifted focus from Close to her own narrative with her return after a long absence. If Foster is nominated, do not count her out. I think the oversight and ensuing criticism of Zhao Shuzhen's omission for The Farewell last year--as well as not nominating anyone from Parasite--could definitely help Youn Yuh-jung. I'm in agreement with those who are wondering if Bakalova will be this year's Jennifer Lopez. And Seyfried's omission at SAG means the buzz around Mank is cooling off. I also think Helena Zengel is in only because this category loves young actresses. And Coleman is both beloved and overexposed. So which five get in? Can't wait to find out.
Jesus are you young supporting actress winners for comedic performances all from the mid 90's and earlier? Trends that have passed aren't relevant unless Bakalova is the start ofbit coming back into fashion. Hey, I want her to win too, but that argument is rightfully disregarded padre.
Ditto your 'oh it's so cute factor because Bakalova is not a child like your cited examples. Rightfully disregarded.
She may take a McCarthy type nod if the Academy is feeling frisky, but her Europeanness and broad comedy film are things to overcome not bolster. The outrageousness of Borat has more than eclipsed any of the political points made by the film, so once again padre, that factor has to be rightfully and logically disregarded.
The majority of Close fans aren't about individual achievement of the year being worthy. They are so worn down that they will take an Oscar for anything, even if she starred in Sia's Music! So using logic and sound thinking that point especially is rightfully disregarded.
And yes, with the Razzies more about whivh star had a stumble than actually terrible work, Close can easily win both. I pray Bakalova wins but the indescribable feeling in the air at this point is Close finally wins dues to a diverse field with many detractors for each nominee and different fancies for voters to spread their vote on. Fact checked.
Love your passion anyway. I wish i was less pragmatic and more blind faith like you are. Stay safe and try to enjoy the race anyway XOXO
Working Stiff: ehh I am not sure what your point is. I guarantee film critics and Film Twitter are the only ones talking about any of the films in contention this year. Out of interest why you do put Film Twitter in quote marks like that's not how Film Twitter describes itself?
BGK, we need the think pieces on Asian under-representation and being ignored by Oscar PRONTO! Just like when Black performers have a fluke year of few acting nominations you hear a thousand articles on the topic and #OscarsSoWhite, we need twitter and journalists to run with this narrative. Get tweeting folks, corageous writers like Claudio Alves your articles are needed now!!
@ Luke
I put it in quotes because "Film Twitter" as an idea and a reality is a load of bullshit. And other films in contention are being discussed by people who are neither critics nor on Twitter (film or otherwise). A few contenders that my circle of friends and family are talking about: Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal, Borat. People are curious about (but haven't yet seen) Nomadland and Minari.
As many others have commented, I fail to see how Glenn Close will win BSA. It’s not a career or overdue narrative what has transpired for her this awards season. People are confusing personal pity for what is actually happening (or not happening). At this point, I actually see Close and Seyfried as the ones vulnerable for snubs. Bakalova is certainly in despite naysayers. The power of the Rudy Giuliani scene combined with the trauma most of Hollywood experienced by the Trump years will suffice to bring her to Oscar night as reward. Call me crazy but I think Youn Yuh-jung will win this year. And Foster is IN too.
Working Stiff: You don't think there's such a thing as Film Twitter? Is this like when hipsters used to deny they were hipsters?
When Close is announced in the five nominees against Colman, the rehashing of her likely narrow loss last time will tip jer over the edge to a win. The other nominees will draw their own niche pockets of Oscars voters, but the familiar and unrewarded Close will slide by to a victory. I understand if you have a hunch it won't happen but logically it is very sound.
People are projecting a purely personal pity narrative on those who view the race pragmatically.
The race is so volatile that Close could totally win her overdue Oscar for a divisive film. If there was a frontrunner I'd think differently, but there really isn't. Foster won the Globe, Bakalova has comedy and category confusion (and lost her lead Globe), and Seyfried missed SAG. Her biggest competition would be Colman had she not won recently... Youn is definitely rising in the ranks, but it all depends on how the Academy responds to Minari.
People keep saying Bakalova has no shot bc it isn't the role the Academy goes for, but I feel like this year is the time where rules really don't apply.
Maybe BAFTA will give us some clues... or make it an even weirder race.
@ Luke
Oh, there is definitely such a thing. I said the idea and the reality of "Film Twitter" are both a load of bullshit, like so many things that actually exist.
Had they snubbed McCarthy for 'Bridesmaids' i wouldn't have much hope for Bakalova... but they didn't. If they can give a nod to something that outrageously comedic and vulgar I think she's safe.
Hope you wear H&M when you win the Oscar this year Glenn!
Glenn just needs to watch out for that little Minari grandma. I still thinks she’s her only threat to finally winning.