BAFTA predictions? Why not!
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 10:48AM by Nathaniel R
Rather famously the BAFTAs did a gigantic overhaul of their nomination process to insure gender parity and diversity in their nominations. Many of the individual category nominations were decided by tiny juries. But for the winners the whole voting body will vote. Given that the nominations themselves were impossible to foresee perhaps the winners will be too? So lets just try our hand at divining what might come to pass.
FILM
WILL WIN: This is actually a tough call. BAFTA has disagreed with Oscar more than we commonly think for the top category...
Usually when they do they choose a lesser film than Oscar chooses (though not always). Nomadland is probably only a soft frontrunner. But we're still going to predict it.
COULD WIN: The Father is more British and also excellent but being British doesn't always help you at the British Academy Awards. But really IF Nomadland loses any of the other four, aside from The Mauritanian, feel possible...especially The Father. Though the Father could win the next category so maybe Chicago 7 is the correct answer here.
BRITISH FILM
- Calm With Horses
- The Dig
- The Father
- His House
- Limbo
- The Mauritanian
- Mogul Mowgli
- Promising Young Woman
- Rocks
- Saint Maud
WILL WIN: We think it's between Promising Young Woman and The Father due to their high profile. And we're going to be on The Father just because it feels like Promising is losing awards steam (curious) while The Father is still growing in estimation.
COULD WIN: On the other hand, there is Rocks. We can't speak to its quality as its only recently arrived for streaming in the US so didnt factor into awards in the US but it has a lot of nominations, too.
LEAD ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Tough call since the one we would have banked on (Carey Mulligan) didn't make the cut. Will voters just embrace Frances McDormand for Nomadland even though she won so recently? She doesn't have 2 BAFTAs in the way she has 2 Oscars but voters are likely not keeping track of such differences. So we actually think they'll just go rogue here and honor Bukky Bakray in Rocks.
COULD WIN: Some people are predicting Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman but we can't quite see it for some reason; she's been "just happy to be nominated" since Venice. So for an alternate let's say Frances McDormand.
LEADING ACTOR
- Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Adarsh Gourav - The White Tiger
- Sir Anthony Hopkins - The Father
- Mads Mikkelsen - Another Round
- Tahar Rahim - The Mauritanian
WILL WIN: If any of the majors are not going to feel the need to honor Chadwick Boseman posthumously it will be BAFTA. On the other hand BAFTA isn't exactly known for rocking the boat awards-wise. So we think he'll win though we don't think he's locked the way he's been everywhere else.
COULD WIN: Sir Anthony Hopkins has three competitive BAFTAs plus a Fellowship which is why we're not banking on him to upset. If there's a potential spoiler couldn't it be Riz Ahmed who is magnificent in Sound of Metal and also had Mogul Mowgli in contention.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Niamh Algar - Calm With Horses
- Kosar Ali - Rocks
- Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Dominique Fishback - Judas and the Black Messiah
- Ashley Madekwe - County Lines
- Youn Yuh-Jung - Minari
WILL WIN: Though Minari weirdly didn't show up in Best Film it did so well in the nominations overall that we think Youn Yuh-Jung triumphs here with all the Brits eating into each other's support.
COULD WIN: Maria Bakalova might pull this off if they admire her bravery and the lampooning of American insanity.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
- Barry Keoghan - Calm With Horses
- Alan Kim - Minari
- Leslie Odom Jr - One Night In Miami...
- Clarke Peters - Da 5 Bloods
- Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya has been sweeping supporting categories for his leading role as the Black Messiah so we've no reason to believe he won't continue that televised award sweep here.
COULD WIN: If there's a shocking upset... no, there won't be.
DIRECTOR
- Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg
- Babyteeth - Shannon Murphy
- Minari - Lee Isaac Chung
- Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
- Quo Vadis, Aida? - Jasmila Žbanić
- Rocks - Sarah Gavron
WILL WIN: Chloe Zhao will continue her sweep of Director prizes, even if Nomadland loses.
COULD WIN: ..unless BAFTA voters are feeling really frisky and decide to honor a homegrown talent and go wth Sarah Gavron
EE RISING STAR AWARD
- Kingsley Ben-Adir
- Morfydd Clark
- Bukky Bakray
- Ṣọpẹ́ Dìrísù
- Conrad Khan
WILL WIN: Let's just guess and say Bukky Bakray because Rocks won't go empty-handed surely?
COULD WIN: Kingsley Ben-Adir has the highest profile in the US of these actors but this is an audience vote in the UK and we confess we don't know how popular any of these actors are across the ocean. Some winners of this prize in the past have been very surprising. But he's easy to picture as a winner even though One Night in Miami didn't fare well in their nominations.
DEBUT FROM BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR, OR PRODUCER
- His House - Remi Weekes (writer/director)
- Limbo - Ben Sharrock (writer/director), Irune Gurtubai (producer)
- Moffie - Jack Sidey (writer/producer)
- Rocks - Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson (writers)
- Saint Maud - Rose Glass (writer/director), Oliver Kassman (producer)
WILL WIN: This will be the chance for Rocks to shine even if it loses elsewhere.
COULD WIN: Unless Moffie has momentum?
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- Another Round (Denmark)
- Dear Comrades! (Russia)
- Les Misérables (France)
- Minari (US)
- Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
WILL WIN: We think this is a tight contest between Another Round and Minari but let's guess the former since it made the finals for Best Film and also showed up in Best Director
COULD WIN: Minari
DOCUMENTARY
- Collective
- David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet
- The Dissident
- My Octopus Teacher
- The Social Dilemma
WILL WIN: I'm seeing a lot of My Octopus Teacher predictions online and though I'd like to be contrary for punditry sport reading through BAFTA's list of past winners in this category, when it differs from Oscar it's often for very digestable audience-favourite docs and this one qualifies.
COULD WIN: Collective.
ANIMATED FILM
- Onward
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
WILL WIN: Throwing caution to the wind and predicting Wolfwalkers just for the helluva it. Maybe some BAFTA voters will be tired of the Pixar dominance and want to throw some love to Ireland's great animation studio.
COULD WIN: ... we realize this is foolish and it will probably be Soul
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Another Round - Tobias Lindholm, Thomas Vinterberg
- Mank - Jack Fincher
- Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
- Rocks - Theresa Ikoko, Claire Wilson
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Aaron Sorkin
WILL WIN: Fennell didn't show up in Director so we think this is her chance for a BAFTA win and this goes to Promising Young Woman
COULD WIN: Trial of the Chicago 7 could pull this off. But doesn't it feel like Another Round could as well?
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Dig - Moira Buffini
- The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
- The Mauritanian - Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani, MB Traven
- Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
- The White Tiger - Ramin Bahrani
WILL WIN: Nomadland has been dominant but if The Father is going to win anywhere for its great and formerly celebrated words, wouldn't it be at BAFTA? We can dream (partially because we don't quite understand why Nomadland has been winning screenplay awards -- a brilliant film but the script isn't primarily why)
COULD WIN: Obviously Nomadland has a great shot but as alternate we want to say The White Tiger because we can actually picture a shock win in our deep fried awards brain.
ORIGINAL SCORE
WILL WIN: Throwing caution to the wind again here and going with Minari's gorgeous score here even though...
COULD WIN: ...awards voters have been tirelessly obsessed with Soul
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbitt
- Mank - Erik Messerschmidt
- The Mauritanian - Alwin H Küchler
- News of the World - Dariusz Wolski
- Nomadland - Joshua James Richards
WILL WIN: Nomadland
COULD WIN: Mank
COSTUME DESIGN
- Ammonite - Michael O'Connor
- The Dig - Alice Babidge
- Emma - Alexandra Byrne
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth
- Mank - Trish Summerville
WILL WIN: Though we think the race is tight for the Oscar between Ma Rainey and Emma, across the pond we doubt Ma Rainey is as well loved so we're guessing Emma.
COULD WIN: Ammonite. It would surprise everyone but Michael O'Connor is a wonderful talent
EDITING
- The Father - Yorgos Lamprinos
- Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
- Promising Young Woman - Frédéric Thoraval
- Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten
WILL WIN: The Father
COULD WIN: Sound of Metal
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- The Dig - Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald
- The Father - Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone
- Mank - Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale
- News of the World - David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan
- Rebecca - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
WILL WIN: Mank
COULD WIN: The Father
MAKEUP AND HAIR
- The Dig - Jenny Shircore
- Hillbilly Elegy - Patricia Dehaney, Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Matiki Anoff, Larry M Cherry, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal
- Mank - Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams
- Pinocchio - Mark Coulier
WILL WIN: Pinocchio
COULD WIN: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
SOUND
- Greyhound - nominees TBC
- News of the World - Michael Fentum, William Miller, Mike Prestwood Smith, John Pritchett, Oliver Tarney
- Nomadland - Sergio Diaz, Zach Seivers, M Wolf Snyder
- Soul - Coya Elliott, Ren Klyce, David Parker
- Sound of Metal - Jamie Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Phillip Bladh, Carlos Cortes, Michelle Couttolenc
WILL WIN: Sound of Metal
COULD WIN: News of the World
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- Greyhound - Pete Bebb, Nathan McGuinness, Sebastian von Overheidt
- The Midnight Sky - Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, David Watkins
- Mulan - Sean Faden, Steve Ingram, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury
- The One and Only Ivan - Santiago Colomo Martinez, Nick Davis, Greg Fisher
- Tenet - Scott Fisher, Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley
WILL WIN: Tenet
COULD WIN: Mulan
CASTING
- Calm With Horses - Shaheen Baig
- Judas and the Black Messiah - Alexa L Fogel
- Minari - Julia Kim
- Promising Young Woman - Lindsay Graham Ahanonu, Mary Vernieu
- Rocks - Lucy Pardee
WILL WIN: Rocks
COULD WIN: Minari
BRITISH SHORT FILM
- Eyelash
- Lizard
- Lucky Break
- Miss Curvy
- The Present
We confess we haven't done our research on this one so let's go with The Present which is very good and also up for the Oscar.
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
- The Fire Next Time
- The Owl and the Pussycat
- The Song of A Lost Boy
Same but we're going with The Fire Next Time which also played Sundance this year and combines stop motion sets with hand painted animation.
Who do you think will win this weekend?
Reader Comments (17)
How does Promising Young Woman not win casting for disguising "bad" boys with actors known for sensitive portrayals and for Tammy Taylor as the complicit dean?
@ Lenard
Not to mention how Mulligan’s father from An Education is used here. #nospoiler
(And the casting of her parents and boss.)
That should be Yorgos Lanthimos.
Marcos -- what is this referring to?
If Hopkins wins I think Best Actor isn't so locked.
I think this is Maria Bakalova’s last chance to make an Oscar push. If she doesn’t win this I think she’s out of contention.
@ Marcos
They are two different people (one's a director, one's an editor).
I would love Bakalova winning here, but this is Youn's to lose (as the Oscar, probably), unless they think that Minari taking Foreign Film could be reward enough - but I don't think BAFTA members vote with that in mind. Bakalova's chances depend on what the average BAFTA member feels about Borat and if they are impressed that she even eclipsed Sacha Baron Cohen in his own territory, at the first try. That is why, despite believing Youn is taking the BAFTA and the Oscar, I still think Bakalova can take them both as well (but in Oscar, the narrative for her victory would be a split voting between Youn and Close for the "respect"/"veteran" status, allowing her to sneak through to the victory).
I'll be glad when the BAFTA winners are announced and perhaps bring even just a little more clarity to this year's Oscars. When you enter the annual Oscar pool for money every year it's important to try to get a grasp on things and this year has been rough! But it's WAY more fun than those tiresome years where all the majors are pre-ordained from the get-go.
Lenard: how did I not clock that! He has such a good part in both movies!
I think Rocks wins Best Casting. The excellent casting of its child actors is one of the film’s most obvious and impressive achievements, so I can’t see it losing here.
Moffie received a very quiet straight-to-streaming release in the UK during the Summer and then quickly vanished, but Saint Maud achieved (relative to its size) astonishing box office returns when it was released into a dearth of new releases in the Autumn, buoyed by overwhelmingly positive reviews. If something were to spoil there, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were that.
Like others who have seen it, it’s a mystery how Cosmo Jarvis didn’t get into Best Actor this year given that voters clearly saw and liked the film. But it was stiff competition this year, so...
I kind of hope Your wins agains so that when we look back on the season Close's Oscar win feels extra egregious.
I think I'll watch this year.
After night one, your predictions have held up pretty well!
Would love to see Alfre Woodard win for Best Actress. For her to get that nomination but mean there was some real support there, so perhaps enough for a win? Still wonder how she would’ve factored into the Oscar races last season if things had worked out, but still happy to see her performance’s visibility continued!
If there's a place where The Father could receive some honors, it's here.
I also find it hard not to predict Chadwick. BAFTA has gone on the sweep thing these very last seven years.
I also find it hard to see Frances winning BAFTA. While she may have been nominated everywhere and won the most critics' awards, they passed on her for every big award: Venice, Gotham,NBR, precursors, AACTA and most likely Indie will follow.
The BAFTAs have indicated last-minute shifts in momentum enough times (think Tilda Swinton in 2007, Alan Arkin in 2006, and Polanski in 2002) that I would definitely take any deviation from the expected frontrunners here into consideration when making my final Oscar predictions. It’s not fail-proof, but honestly a “when in doubt, go with the BAFTA winner” strategy has paid off for me a few times in Oscar prediction contests.
I think it might be somewhat less applicable in Best Actress since only two of the nominees are also up for the Oscar this year, but a win for Maria Bakalova here would be enough to convince me she still has a real shot at the Oscar.