Oscar Volley: Best Actress. You can sit with us.
Friday, March 25, 2022 at 5:00PM Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Nathaniel, Ben Miller, Mark Brinkerhoff and special guest Nick Davis to discuss Best Actress.
NATHANIEL: I've been thinking a lot about what the characters and not the nominated actresses would make of all the competitive hoopla around the Best Actress Oscar this year. Photographer Janis (soulfully embodied by Penélope Cruz) wouldn't quite want all the eyes on her but she'd keep busy and turn her lens on her fellow nominees. She'd stick around for all the events. Professor Leda (Oliva Colman in all her complexity) and Princess Diana (anxiously inhabited by Kristen Stewart), who I'd never otherwise pair in thought, would both surely acknowledge the honors while eyeing the nearest exit and counting the minutes until they could escape. They would skip anything non-mandatory. Lucille Ball (surprisingly portrayed by Nicole Kidman) would be the consummate star and pull all the focus... but what would she actually be thinking about in the glow of all the lights? Only Tammy Faye (enthusiastically reincarnated by Jessica Chastain) might truly enjoy it. She would be very extra about campaigning and thoroughly enjoy the circus of it all.
Am I stalling due to utter suspense about who might win? Sure...
But also no because I love to think about movie characters as actual people and I don't mean biographically. Do I have a kick off question? Not really but I guess I do want to know where your preferences lie. Which character would you be most eager to sit with at an Oscar party... and which actress are you hoping takes home the gold and why?
MARK: Excellent question(s). The character I’d be most eager to sit with at an Oscar party probably would be Lucy on account of the interesting conversations to be had. (Janis and Lena, by contrast, may be a bit too cagey, while Diana and Tammy Faye likely would be awkward or just plain exhausting.) But that doesn’t mean the character I’d like to spend time with is played by the actress I’m hoping to take home Oscar. Because that would not be Kidman (whom I love) this year, despite the fact that she gives a much better performance as Lucy than the film surrounding her merits—or that I, quite frankly, expected from the (mis)casting. And while Chastain, Colman and Stewart are giving their performances their all (Colman most effectively), my heart belongs to Cruz, even though my head leans (slightly) toward Chastain at the moment. What a weird, wild Oscar race this has been, am I right, gents?
BEN: I love how fluid this race has been. Six months ago, Stewart was the runaway winner. Two months ago, it was Kidman. Lady Gaga was the precursor champ, then it shifted to Colman. Chastain has all the momentum now, but there are grumblings of a Cruz surprise. I love it. The last time I remember this many contenders for the win (not counting last year's Best Actress), was 1999 Best Supporting Actor.
This is the Academy's reward for not nominating any duds. There is no clear "narrative" driving who should win. Either give Chastain or Stewart their first with a long career to follow, or give one of the other mainstays their second. My favorite part: there is no bad outcome. I am "very fond" to "overwhelmingly love" all these performances.
NICK: Obviously, my job is to sit with Leda and hold down a whole banquette for moody academics who teach esoteric subjects and feel like lumpy, middle-aged laughingstocks while doing their grading on the beach. It would be fun to sing our beloved Bon Jovi together and to steal things from other nominees and compare our respective bounties, debating what to keep and what to restore. Or maybe, amid what I considered a growing rapport, she’d look at me flatly like she does at Ed Harris and ask to finish her dinner undisturbed, please.
Regarding the actresses, I’d be happy to see any of the five of them win, though I feel like Colman is embarrassed about the whole thing and would rather clap for somebody else. All of them have had interesting, unpredictable careers, and I would be excited for whatever extra choice-power and visibility a trophy would entitle them to, however briefly. Regarding the actual performances, I’d have a hard time with a Spencer win. Stewart’s committed performance often seems effortful and self-conscious to me in ways that don’t serve the character or shift between scenes, as Chastain’s/Tammy Faye’s strenuous exuberance or Kidman’s/Lucy’s shifting and overlapping layers of performing, withholding, and prevaricating do.
I like what Chastain and Kidman manage under tricky circumstances and in uneven films. But at the end of the day, I’m a Cruz voter. I love how much less she “does” than many an actress would and how she and Almodóvar have conspired to explore the power of underplaying within an ornate aesthetic and an excessive genre. The scene where she tells Milena Smit’s character….what she finally needs to tell her, in a quiet and subdued tone and a conversational pace, while sitting down, utterly refusing to “play” to her scene partner or her director, encapsulates this quality for me. She manages a kind of directness and emotional lucidity throughout while remaining as mysterious in some respects as the script requires. Colman is similarly economical and subtly kaleidoscopic in a surprising part for her and is my close runner-up. I do think Chastain is winning, though.
If a Libra can spit out a clear preference and a straightforward prediction, anything is possible for the rest of you. Nathaniel dodged his own question about favorites in the race, as did Ben, and Mark’s head and heart were in different places. Show those cards!
NATHANIEL: Fine fine. Haha. At first I didn't state preferences because I was torn but it came time to give out my Film Bitch Awards medals so I had to. Since Chastain had already won gold in my own awards (for A Violent Year) and I felt very "tie" about my preference, despite not believing in ties, I went with Olivia Colman who is a total marvel in The Lost Daughter. She's playing both interior and exterior constantly and the way she illuminates how badly Leda would NOT like her exterior to show, her frustrations and fascinations and attractions and ambivalence and what have you keep popping out, often messily. It's a really rich performance. I'm also crazy about Chastain who is definitely playing more to the exterior but what other choice did she have for that specific role (if anything she could have gone bigger!). It's a highwire act. She risks being absolutely ridiculous, which you'd have to in that role and which is absolutely appealing from a fan perspective if the performer pulls it off. You just want to throw flowers. Or at least I did. In lieu of flowers, throw Oscars? I actually think she might lose though so I'm considering dreadicting Kristen Stewart.
Why? I do genuinely like Kristen Stewart and my own awards prove I think she already deserved an Oscar. But the mania around this performance has had me baffled all year. Kristen Stewart has been campaigning as hard as anyone and she is obviously leagues more comfortable with being in the white hot spotlight than she was during the Twilight and immediately post Twilight years. I think the voting will be close.
One more thing I want to state is that I dont really understand the mandatory thing of people expressing that they dont like a film but they love the actor's work in it. A lot of people are using this against Jessica Chastain this year. I am 100% sure I've done it in the past but when I see others doing it I'm always like "No, we're supposed to only be judging the acting in these categories". If I were judging on solely the films themselves than my medalists would often be very different. This is a long way of saying that Olivia is in the best film with Cruz as runner up. Yes, Chastain is running circles around her too-simple film but that doesn't put her in last place. Meanwhile I feel like Kristen Stewart isn't running circles around her movie so much as spinning in place with it until actress and film get dizzy and crash into earth. I don't like the movie or the performance, though I can always separate one from the other. I'm sorry, internet!
Ben? Mark?
MARK: Well mine are obviously on the table, but can we revel for a moment in the full characterizations that Cruz and Colman are giving—full stop? Historically the Academy is clearly gaga over biopic performances (except, ironically, Lady Gaga’s this year), but I much, much prefer when actors—oh, who am I kidding, actresses—create something vivid and distinctive organically. Which is precisely what Cruz and Colman get to do, guided in no small part by their incisive directors.
Also really appreciate that these two, now four-time and three-time Oscar nominees, respectively, have been nominated for roles that are quite different from the Oscar-nominated roles they’ve played previously. I mean, the range, the talent, the wonder! It’s an embarrassment of riches for those of us wistful for the halcyon days of Sirk-like melodramas with complicated women at their center. And speaking of complicated, can anyone explain how Stewart arrived at this interpretation of Diana? What direction must Pablo Larraín given her to go…there? (Chastain and Kidman had more linear paths, truly.)
NICK: Mark, I love your points about Cruz and Colman, in relation to their working without real-life templates and their significant stretches from what they’ve shown us before, especially in nominated work. For me, though, the other three nominees get a gold star in the latter department, too. I never expected to see Chastain as exuberant and full-bodied or as musical (when talking, as much as when singing) as she is here. There's some Celia Foote in her Tammy Faye, but I think even Celia would be awestruck and a little dumbstruck by her. Kidman's given plenty of outsized and plenty of inward, cerebral performances but to me it's kind of rare that she's had to give both at once, weaving back and forth between those poles in tricky rhythms and often against audience expectations.
I do agree with you in being perplexed by a lot of what Stewart does, especially by herself and in adult interactions. She has repeatedly named "ferocity" as her keyword for Diana, and I still can't work out the path to that of all adjectives. But ferocious she is, and I can almost see it as an experiment in playing Diana as panicked, hunted animal even when she's not being outwardly aggressed. It's nothing like I thought we'd ever see from her, and still less are her best scenes (to me), which are the ones with her kids. So I'm blissed out by a category where nobody is repeating herself.
Sorry, Ben, for cutting in, but also glad to vamp to give you more time!
BEN: We are all pretty much in agreement that all these women/performances are great. What win works as the best narrative for the Academy? None of these women are in the twilight (no pun intended) of their careers and could very well be nominated again in 20-30 years. In each of their cases, the Academy can justify skipping the win because they keep doing great work. Kidman and Colman are already Best Actress winners, while Chastain and Stewart seemed poised to keep showing up. Cruz is interesting.
The Oscars have this funny habit of owing Supporting winners until they get a Lead trophy. Jack Lemmon and Denzel are the best examples of this. Do they give Cruz the Lead Oscar this year and wait on the next opportunity for Chastain and Stewart, or is this the right time to give Chastain her Oscar and wait down the line for Stewart (or vice-versa)?
What is the best and worst scenario narratively?
NICK: I’m curious how others will answer, but I’m not your girl for Oscar narratives. I feel like they disproportionally drive the conversation, besides which voters are weirdly erratic about when they embrace them. The last time we got a perfect Oscar narrative was with Alfre Woodard (universally beloved, always reliable character actress with decades of experience, finally headlining a movie with complex, timely themes that takes the top prize at Sundance and in which she gives a pristine performance with an enormous degree of difficulty), and they couldn’t even bothered to nominate her! Besides which, I feel like none of this year’s contenders has a better-than-average narrative behind them, and their careers are precisely interesting by not having clear narratives. So now I’m back on Libra brand by not having any decision or preference to register. : ) What do you think, Nathaniel?
NATHANIEL: The narratives drive the conversation too much, is what I think, yes. And I blame that somewhat on the cottage industry of punditry. It was pretty limited realm when I started doing this in 2000 but it's exploded with every site having someone on the Oscar beat and some critics (probably reluctantly) covering it too when they have to. With the ratings dwindling it makes me think that one day there will be more pundits than people watching. JOKING, obviously. But It makes me think of Mo'nique's indifference to campaigning 'can't it just be about the performance?' or the rare times when it does feel entirely about the performance (Hopkins for The Father, Swinton for Michael Clayton).
Ben is right that the "overdue" and "owing" business is super inconsistent -- especially when Supporting trophies are involved. Nick name-checks Alfre Woodard in Clemency (2019) and I raise him then-overdue Joan Allen in Upside of Anger (2005) who gave the best leading actress performance in a year in which it would have been remarkably easy to reward her and, again, no narrative took.
But back to this season. Though there was a groundswell of love for Penélope Cruz around the time of the nomination, Parallel Mothers didn't break out as much as some of Almodóvar's other films. For example Pain and Glory did $37 million worldwide while Parallel Mothers has earned about half of that. Some of that is surely due to the sorry state of moviegoing in 2021/2022 but I feel it did undercut her momentum. And then The Worst Person in the World and Renata Reinsve (who wasn't nominated) began to soak up the conversation, with a lot of people (including myself) suspecting that Reinsve could have made the Best Actress list had the film been released earlier or pushed harder. All of which made Penélope's momentum feel confined to just a couple of weeks. If she wins on Sunday I will have obviously been wrong about this!
And then the conversation looped back around to Kristen Stewart. All conversations loop back to their origins if the season wears on long enough. Which is why I think this race is either going to Kristen Stewart (obsessive fans that wouldn't budge even if they thought she would lose) or Jessica Chastain (the narrative + degree of difficulty). Olivia Colman never took off as an option because Maggie Gyllenhaal was the focal point of The Lost Daughter's campaign.
MARK: Oh, God, I’m at odds with myself about whether Stewart’s winning would help or hurt—not Stewart herself (or her career), per se, but rather her devoted fanbase. Would they be quelled or further emboldened by Oscar winner Kristen Stewart? I mean, if haters gonna hate, then fans gonna fan… the flames.
So maybe the Academy, which isn’t beholden to #FilmTwitter or rabid fanbases anyway, opts to reward a clearly going-for-the-gold Jessica Chastain, thus completing a decade-long quest for the highest honor in Hollywood. And I could hardly quibble with Chastain’s being an Oscar winner, even if her output as of late (namely superfluous sequels like The Huntsman: Winter’s War, It: Chapter Two, and X-Men: Dark Phoenix) has been more questionable than quality. (Count me as excited though for George & Tammy, reteaming her with Take Shelter co-star, Michael Shannon—to me the undersung performance/film from her breakout year.)
With all that said, I can’t help but have a nagging feeling that Cruz, whose biggest hurdle was the nomination itself, very well could pull off an upset and at the end of the day be the emergent winner. Which would be deeply satisfying *and* deserving, would it not?
NATHANIEL: Stewart stans are already insufferable but they will be whether she wins or loses. I think she'll top this performance in no time if she keeps taking big swings with quality directors (as she did here - though I'd argue it didn't quite work; I'm fully aware that this is a minority opinion so don't come for me). Anyway, I like her and I am thrilled by her ambition and will eagerly watch what she does next.
Ok final round make your predictions. I'm going:
Prediction: Chastain. (alt. Stewart)
Preference: Colman (alt. Chastain)
NICK:
Prediction: Chastain (alt. Cruz)
Preference: Cruz (alt. Colman)
But really: WOODARD (do a write-in, you cowards!!)
Dear Kristen Stewart fans – I did not besmirch you in any way or use an adjective like “insufferable,” and I wrote a nice cover story about her once, and Mark was very nice and called you “devoted” and Ben stayed out of the whole fray. Please take this info into account when issuing any and all follow-up communiques.
BEN: I appreciate the recap Nick. It made me look really good. The Academy loves their history and I think a Cruz win would look the best down the road. Though I do agree with you that Chastain is looking like the predicted winner. I just want the Academy to keep Best Actress as competitive as it has been for the past two years. It's been delightful.
MARK: Indeed it has. So here we go:
Prediction: Chastain (alt. Cruz)
Preference: Cruz (alt. Colman)
Which leaves Kidman on the outside looking in…till next year? Who can say; that woman works a lot.
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Reader Comments (16)
As much as I would love a wild shock, being that this is the only major category that could actually do that - with Jessica being so close, I really do hope it’s her time… she’s missed a couple of worthy nominations and has been working steadily towards her crowning moment. And she’s definitely one of our best working actresses!
I still haven’t seen the movie tho (lolz).
@Nathaniel: Love you for bringing up Joan Allen and The Upside of Anger. Easily the century's most egregious snub in the Best Actress category.
Also, I loved this post. This is such a stellar lineup filled with exciting and risky work.
My prediction: Penélope Cruz
Great conversation, y'all. As to the Stewart thing - I figured she'd win months ago in large part because of "the narrative", but I'm with Nathaniel and some others on the film (hated it) so I tend to think it'd be best if she didn't win this year given that her playing the game throughout awards season seems to have won her new fans in the industry and I'd think her career would be better served by winning for a less-divisive film.
I'd vote Colman, but I'm predicting Cruz upsets Chastain (or maybe I'm just hoping for that).
i'm going with olivia in the hope she glenda jacksons her way to a second win in three years [with another nomination in between]
Reinsve, Thompson: MISSING IN ACTION.
Kidman: a very COULD WIN performance (biopic, Hollywood).
Colman: another COULD WIN (everybody loves Olivia).
Stewart: in the SHOULD WIN column, because I happen to like her and Spencer very much, but as I said right after I saw it many moons ago: "She will be nominated, but she will not win for *this* performance in *this* film."
Chastain, Cruz: I could predict a tie (ridiculous, I know) because I get strong WILL WIN vibes from both of these overdue (for a Best Actress win) stars—but Cruz would be my preference.
Loved reading this! I’m a Colman voter, barely over Cruz (though ask me again tomorrow and I might very well go the other way) then Kidman, then Stewart, then Chastain. But I have to say that I think it’s a really strong field and I’d be happy with any of them winning. I also think this group is fascinating because these performances are all shape shifters. I’ve seen all of the films twice and have reacted somewhat differently to each of the performances (and the films) in those viewings. So I look forward to revisiting this lineup for years to come to see how these performances do and do not change for me, which I think is an excellent sign of a strong roster with talented actresses doing interesting, ambitious work that are so different not just from each other but from what we usually seen them do.
The way they wasted a slot with Kidman. Any other actress and you would be all up in arms.
I think Stewart's best scenes are with the kids because it's the only time in the movie she gets to step out of the "walking anxiety" template she & Larrain cast for the character. It's just too one-note a portrayal. I liked Cruz and love Almodovar, but this particular movie didn't do it for me, it got really bogged down as it went along. Colman is always sublime, she wins this hands down if she didn't win a few years ago (see? should've given it to Glenn Close). Kidman was great too, but she's already won as well. Chastain is my pick, just totally entertaining and overdue.
This is why I read this site - such deep performance analyses! Totally agree that Stewart's best scenes are with the kids.
Beyond the plausible contenders (Gaga, Haim, Hudson, Reinsve, Thompson, Zegler) I'd be curious to know who you'd all advocate for. To me, Léa Seydoux in FRANCE, Virginie Efira in BENEDETTA, Mary Twala in THIS IS A BURIAL, NOT A RESURRECTION, Nina Hoss in MY LITTLE SISTER, and Deragh Campbell in ANNE AT 13,000 FT all deserve more love.
I loved reading everyones thoughts,seems Cruz may surprise
Not seen Cruz but am excited for when I do.
I know who I don't want to win Kidman or Stewart,I don't see anything of note in either performance
The Spencer screenplay has the most problems though and she can't rise above them or make them work and she needs to stay away from dinner table acting.
I would love if Nicole won a 2nd someday but I thought initial miscasting thoughts we're spot on,I didn't hear 2 Lucy/Lucilles like I keep hearing from commentators,she doesn't look right either in that particular era just like she stood out as wrong in The Beguiled,her face is to modern.
It's too much if Colman wins again,sometimes a 2nd win can sour your nomination chances down the road ask Hilary Swank.
I wonder if Chastain wins whether she'd become a Susan Sarandon who was never nominated again after her overdue win,the only thing holding her back is the ropey Punch n Judy make up.
That leaves me with the person I haven't seen,Is Penelope going to pull a Marcia Gay Harden.
My Best Actres list contains subtle Thompson,Colman and big GaGa and Chastain,I have Frances M in 5th but expect Cruz to replace her.
Tessa Thompson is my winner for the year,I loved Passing and would nominate her 2 co stars Negga & Holland also.
This is just as exciting as last years race.
I had kind of glossed over Penelope Cruz until I actually saw her movie. Then I understood why she had been nominated for it. A wonderful, thoughtful performance.
Both Cruz and Chastain’s movies have become “timely”.
Cruz: anti-war and the legacy of damage that war brings.
Chastain: being a “Christian” doesn’t mean you have to be cruel and punishing to people who are perceived as different.
I tried watching Tammy Faye last night and I just… although I expected it to be a glorified TV movie, it was harder to watch than I expected. Why do they look like chipmunks? The fake cheeks are so distracting, and aged them even when they were young.
All this to say, as fantastic and overdue as she is, I’m not sure members of the academy (which has seemingly become more high brow in recent years) would watch that and be eager to vote for it. Then again, it was also nominated for makeup, so what do I know.
I really think Cruz has a shot. Heck, any of them do. This category will be a nail biter as the envelope is opened!
I'd be a Cruz voter, and it wouldn't be close, so perhaps this is wishdicting. But I think she has the best shot.
Perhaps alone on this site, and normally considering myself an actressexual, I cared neither for the film Lost Daughter nor for Colman's performance. But note the 48% audience score for the film on Rotten Tomatoes: This is one of those films where critical and actressexual reception differs from the generic filmgoer reception, and a hefty portion of (older, straight, white) Oscar voters might lean more "generic" than critic.
I envision the other three performances splitting their votes. They're three well known actresses with devoted fan bases in BIG, controversial performances of not-particularly-widely-loved films about divas (can you imagine a better gay icon selection in mainstream Hollywood films than Princess Di/Tammy Faye/Lucille Ball?).
I do, however, suspect that Parallel Mothers is the least seen film of the five, and it has subtitles. But Cruz's performance is so gorgeous that I'm wishdicting it to win.
I have been a champion of Jessica's performance and I really hope that she takes home the gold tomorrow.
My rank goes like: Chastain-Stewart-Cruz-Kidman-Stoleman
I feel like two actresses have "passion" voters - which are Cruz & Stewart - I kind of feel like they split votes and the more "mainstream" nomination (Chastain) wins.
I agree with everyone who says this is an incredible lineup. That said, I would take out Coleman and Stewart, whose movies I loathe, and put in Lady Gaga and Tessa Thompson. Then it would be a perfect category. Jessica is my No. 1, and she fully deserves this win, as I truly believe she gave the best performance. Penelope is my Nol. 2. I am a huge Nicole fan, but she should not win for this film, even though I love that she is among the nominees. The only win that will really anger me is Colman, because she should not win again so soon, not with this horrible film.