Oscar Volley: Best Director could be 2012 all over again
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:00PM Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category before the nominations come out. Here's Eric Blume and Glenn Dunks to talk Best Director...
ERIC: Hi Glenn, excited to dive into this year's crop of Best Directors with you. To me, the big question is whether all three of the "big gun pictures" will carry their directors to nominations. That's Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon; Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer; and Greta Gerwig for Barbie. I personally can't get too excited about Nolan or Scorsese, even though they both do expert work but nothing that rattled my cage. I think one of Gerwig's biggest achievements directing that film...and this is no easy feat...was dealing with what must have been BINDERS of notes from Mattell and Warner Bros and still delivering the film she set out to make...
Do you think these three are definite locks, and what are your thoughts on the three of them?
GLENN: Welcome to another Oscar season, Eric. I was mulling over your question and trying to land on what this year's director race reminds me of and it wasn't too long before it clicked. 2012. Remember that? When two of the frontrunners—Ben Affleck for eventual Best Picture winner Argo, and Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty—got given the boot for smaller works by Benh Zeitlin and Michael Haneke. It was a shocker on nomination morning.
I'm still confident on Nolan and Scorsese out of sheer logic, but I do fear our dear Greta is on the path to a surprise omission. I don't necessarily begrudge it, particularly if Justine Triet can make it in. And although I have yet to see the films, Greta Lee and Jonathan Glazer seem like further logical beneficiaries of the director branch's expanded diversity. The field seems both very compact around certain titles and yet wide open for major surprises.
Are there any ways you see this race unfolding that would make for some major shocks?
ERIC: Glenn, I couldn't agree more. I remember that shocker morning a decade ago. The Director branch tends to have smarter, more refined taste than a lot of the other nominating committees, and I agree that we are likely to see some surprises. I guess you're right that Nolan and Scorsese will make the cut at end of day, but I do think there's a window where Scorsese is a surprise miss. FWIW, I haven't talked to anyone here in LA who is particularly excited about Flower Moon, and the praise for it seems more respectful than passionate. And directors are all about passion. One other thing the directors really factor into their voting is budgets. Scorsese basically had a open check to work with on his film, so the other directors know that he didn't exactly need to be scrappy and resourceful. Hence the nominations for Haneke and Zeitlin back in the day...directors who really delivered while working with no money.
Greta is a curious case, and she could indeed go either way. I think the branch will be impressed with how she navigated through the corporate waters to still deliver a "personal" film, but it's still a very glossy film that some might find too commercial?
I think Glazer is definitely in for The Zone of Interest, just as I felt super confident last year that Todd Field would make it in for TÁR. Directors LOVE control, especially the kind of masterful control that Glazer has here, resisting all urges to move any of the actors' faces into even a medium shot, and never abandoning a metallic, antiseptic atmosphere full of purposefully banal compositions. Glazer picks a lane and NEVER veers from it. He certainly must have had moments where he felt like "let's make at least this one shot beautifully framed"...but he never indulges, and he keeps things so clinical and ugly and distanced throughout. The directors will understand that kind of achievement.
And I think Yorgos Lanthimos is surely in as well. After The Favourite, he's in the club, and at this point, all the directors are eagerly awaiting his next film. Poor Things is that kind of singular achievement that nobody else could have dreamed of making in that way, the movie that makes other directors jealous. Lanthimos somehow makes Poor Things take place in the past, the future, and in some timeless vacuum all at the same time, and he lets all of his actors soar. The combination of his visual imagination, technical acumen, and the work he does with Emma Stone should surely land him safely in this race. I personally think his work is more dynamic, interesting, and deep that Nolan and Scorsese's combined.
What do you think, Glenn? Am I out of my mind thinking Glazer and Lanthimos are sure bets?
GLENN: Yes, well, a list made up of Gerwig, Glazer, Lanthimos Nolan and Scorsese appears to be the most logical at this stage. Lanthimos has become something of an unexpected awards season favourite and the audaciousness of Poor Things' vision will, I think, get him over the line (although I am not a fan of it). Meanwhile, Glazer does strike me as getting some benefit from being British making a German-language film in an expanded Academy—but did it leave its run too late for a film that really requires the viewer to sit and contemplate it.
But a month out from nomination morning and I just have to stop and think about what's going to be on the top of the screener pile over Christmas that could really get the branch going. Which is why I keep coming back to Celine Song, whose film is small but unlike anything else among the contenders. Or the director of my number one movie of the year, perhaps Justine Triet whose masterful fusion of Euro-intellectualism with the mainstream hook of a courtroom thriller might be an even better choice for the branch, which obviously leans very American but not as American as before.
Or could the warm-and-fuzzies provided by Alexander Payne's Christmas-themed The Holdovers get him across the line again?
Before we go into our final predix, I'd love to know which outside-the-box (or at least outside-the-main-contenders-that-we've-mentioned) contender you wish could make us all stand up and shout on nomination morning. I would love nothing more than for Todd Haynes to land his very first directing nomination. I also thought it would be wild for the branch to give a giant f-u to awards season precursors and nominate Wes Anderson for Asteroid City. What a wild choice that would be!
My predictions:
- Greta Gerwig, BARBIE
- Yorgos Lanthimos, POOR THINGS
- Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER
- Martin Scorsese, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
- Celine Song, PAST LIVES
ERIC: Glenn, it's interesting that you and I are both largely thinking the same nominees, outside of your confidence in Strong and mine in Glazer. That's why I hope we are ripe for some upsets on nomination morning.
Todd Haynes sits in sixth-place likelihood to me. Again, May December is the kind of movie not only where directors will "get" what Todd Haynes is doing, but realize that ONLY Todd Haynes could have delivered it exactly in that form. Haynes somehow is working on at least four or five tonal levels throughout the picture, but in masterful ways, not by mistake. He also gets two shattering career performances from his skilled actresses (Portman and Moore) and directs an inexperienced actor (Melton) so skillfully that he almost steals the picture from them. Haynes is a genuine original in the category most likely to celebrate genuine originals. Directors are jealous of this film...they couldn't have landed this plane. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him finally make the slate this year.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Alexander Payne in there either...it's really caught on in these past weeks, and they've nominated him for far less successful work.
Haynes, Song, and Justine Triet are the underdogs I'm rooting for (I'd swap out Nolan, Scorsese, and Gerwig for them). And I have enormous respect for what Andrew Haigh swings for with All of Us Strangers. He's telling a metaphysical and purely metaphorical story in a medium not inviting to those styles, and the language he's using to tell it is extraordinarily sophisticated.
But end of day, I’ll second your nominees, swapping out Celine Song for Jonathan Glazer. But I wouldn’t be surprised if, like you said, we had some shocks like back in 2012!
RELATED READING:
- Other Oscar Volleys – Makeup, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Song, International Film, Supporting Actress, Actor & Actress
- Nathaniel’s Oscar Charts
- Team Experience Predictions – From Picture to Screenplay
Reader Comments (8)
Ugh. I really didn't like the end of Flower Moon. That pic reminded me.
At this point I’m pretty confident in Payne getting in. The DGA nomination was a big get for him, and the BAFTA nomination (especially getting in over Gerwig and Lanthimos) was even more telling since BAFTA has never been as high on him as the Oscars have. I’m going to guess Lanthimos is the one of the DGA quintet who gets left out.
In order of confidence:
1. Nolan
2. Scorsese
3. Payne
4. Triet
5. Gerwig
6. Lanthimos
7. Glazer
8. Song
9. Cooper
10. Haigh
Also, I’ve mentioned this before, but if Payne and Scorsese are both nominated, that will continue Payne’s trend of being nominated alongside Scorsese for every single one of his Best Director nominations.
Surprising Bradley Cooper doesn't even rate a mention with a Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA nomination?
Overall I agree this feels pretty wide open. Only a Nolan snub would truly be shocking. I tend to think Scorsese is safe, Lanthimos and Gerwig are probably in, and Payne the "safe" choice for the 5 slot. But some combination of Glazer, Song, Triet, or Cooper showing up instead would be very in character for the director's guild.
The interesting question is, given those are the directors of 9 of our 10 very likely best picture nominees (sorry Cord Jefferson!), is there a director from outside the best pic field that could surprise a la Thomas Vinterberg or Pawel Pawlikowski? Haynes would seem an obvious options, or maybe BAFTA-nominated Andrew Haigh?
I’m fearing a Yorgos snub, only because of how weird and wild the film is.
The possible case for Todd Haynes is very intriguing; for all of us that have been screaming for the Academy to acknowledge him over the years, I actually really wonder what the reaction would then be for him to finally make it for this film. I think it would be more deserving than someone like Celine Song, for sure, but that isn’t a high bar. But I think people would ultimately think of it as totally random for it to finally happen for this.
This does feel like a potentially volatile category this year, but all I ask is for the voters to vote for whomever they truly think did the best job, period end of sentence. No other criteria should be applied. Let the voters own their beliefs.
Justine Triet, ANATOMY OF A FALL
Alexander Payne, THE HOLDOVERS
Martin Scorsese, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Bradley Cooper, MAESTRO
Christopher Nolan, OPPENHEIMER
Nolan is locked, sealed, he'll be the winner.
They won't let Scorsese out.
I think they're not ignoring Cooper again.
Payne seems a warm choice and totally "establishment".
And they will go for the right woman, Triet.
Unfortunately, no room for Haynes and Song.
Is it possible for a complete surprise to show up in the Best Director and the Best Picture categories?
I remember many years ago when "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" got a Best Pic nomination. This film was on nobody's radar I believe.
So to throw a spanner in the works what do you think of these doozies;-
Best Director - Wim Wenders for Perfect Days?
He has never been nominated and I am sure he will be nominated eventually. So why not this year?
And - wait for it - this is my whopper for Best Picture;-
Sound of Freedom
Are there enough rightwing conservative members of the Academy to nominate this?
Surely the likes of Jon Voight and James Woods and many more might be voting for this child trafficking exploitation film?
Remember American Sniper a few years back?
I am hoping I am wrong about the latter - but there are thousands of members of the Academy and not all of them are leftwing liberals.
I'm with Peter on the fluidity of the race (outside of Nolan and Scorsese), though I don't really see Triet or Song getting in. Anatomy of a Fall is great, but it plays more like a showcase for acting and screenplay. And Song is too new. I would rate Glazer's chances over both of them.
As lame as it is, I think the DGA five is the set. I don’t know who would be pushed out for Glazer or Triet. Oddly, if I had to pick one, it would be Yanthimos.. the movie is way weirder than usual Oscar fare despite the acclaim so far. Weirder than Mulholland Drive, probably the most similar analogue off the top of my head.