10 Questions about the Oscar race
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 8:46PM 
by Nathaniel R
Every Oscar chart has been updated. Late October is always a strange time in the awards race. It's a time when most of the major players have surfaced (at festivals or screenings) but nobody has yet seen everything and no awards groups (beyond festival juries) have sorted and sifted through the abundance. Which means anything is still possible until the critics groups and awards org begin to narrow the focus of Academy voters in ways that tend to be both interesting and disheartening. They'll boost a couple of unexpected but worthy contenders into the conversation but at the same time their hive mind choices will pour abundant love on too few titles and starve other beauties of sunlight and water.
So as you peruse the charts, answer these ten questions in the comments...
In no particular order
1 Will Hard Truths work for AMPAS?
The Academy flits in and out of Mike Leigh fandom. When critics stump for one of his films they usually show up but it's hard to say if they'll embrace (Secrets & Lies, Vera Drake, Topsy Turvy), or merely respect (Another Year, Happy Go Lucky, Mr Turner). Complicating matters is that the distributor Bleecker Street hasn't had a ton of luck with Oscar campaigns even if they've sparked some buzz and conversation and a random nomination here or there with strong films. (Mass, Disobedience, Captain Fantastic, I'll See You in My Dreams, etc...). Mostly we wonder if Marianne Jean-Baptiste can land in Best Actress, 28 years after her first nomination for a Mike Leigh classic.
2 How many sequels will score big?
This didn't used to be much of a golden question, but it's become a persistent one in the 21st century time of franchises galore. Will the October rerelease of Dune Part Two remind them of how much they loved the first one or will they divert their gaze to Ridley Scott's Gladiator 2. That dusty battle could be a stalemate with both films scoring in Best Picture or one left behind. (We assume Furiosa and Joker Folie A Deux are toast)
3 Which aging Master will get the Scorsese treatment?
With so much of the buzz (so far) centering on directors who've never been up for Best Director like Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), and Sean Baker (Anora), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), will any previous nominated favourites return? Voters can choose between legendary auteurs like Mike Leigh (7 noms but no wins), Ridley Scott (4 noms but no wins), and Pedro Almodóvar (he's won but only in Screenplay and International Feature).
4 Will the music branch give Diane Warren a 16th nod?
The music branch has been known to waste a Best Original Song slot on Diane Warren even if a) nobody watched the movie b) the song wasn't particularly good or c) it meant ignoring an amazing song in something else or d) all three at once. Given her recent Oscar history it's stranger and stranger that they ignored her in a year where she should have easily landed in the mix (Burlesque!) Will they nominate her again this year for a new Tyler Perry movie The Six Triple Eight. Why do I keep predicting that they'll break out of their cultish devotion?
5 Will Flow score twice? once? not at all?
The acclaimed animated film from Latvia could show up in both Best Animated Feature and Best International Feature (a la Flee).
6 Exactly how much Category Fraud will we see in Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress this year?
We had a brief respite from this annoying campaign/voting habit last season but this year feels potentially dangerous again. We shall see. At any rate, mad respect for Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) for a double Best Actress campaign rather than pretending two lead movies don't exist.
7 Will Denzel win a third?
Denzel Washington is getting tremendous buzz for his villainous turn in Gladiator 2 and the Academy truly loves him (9 acting nominations, 2 wins). A 10th nomination would make him their second favourite male actor of all time (tied with Laurence Olivier who is just behind Jack Nicholson). For such a leading man, it would be strange to see Denzel with two supporting Oscars... but it could happen. At this very early state I see the never-nominated but enduring Guy Pearce as his biggest threat. Pearce is fantastic in a large memorable role in The Brutalist.
8 How will voters react to Wicked?
This could truly go any which way. If it's a massive hit it'll be tough to ignore. But if it's merely successful, it's possible that they won't take it seriously since the source material is both feminine and partially comedic (Oscar prefers manly serious spectacle). Can we least assume that it'll show up in visual categories? We also don't yet know if it's any good. But what if it is? We're hoping even though we think splitting it into two halves is dangerous both for quality and Oscar dreams.
9 Will any of the International Features score big?
Last year both the French language Anatomy of a Fall and the German language The Zone of Interest scored multiple nominations and emerged as winners. France's Spanish language Emilia Perez is the buzziest non-English title (so far) but will the increasingly international voting body, fall for something else too? Germany's Persian language submission The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Brazil's I'm Still Here, and the Payal Kapadia's Mumbai set All That We Imagine as Light (which is not eligible in the International category) all have devout fans already. But will those fanbases grow within the Academy as we approach balloting?
10 Which movie are pundits (myself or others) wildly overestimating in terms of Oscar appeal?
Conclave? A Complete Unknown? Emilia Perez? Gladiator 2? The Room Next Door? Blitz? I'm leaning towards Conclave or A Complete Unknown even though I have predicted them in multiple places. They both somehow seem too 'easy' as assumptions of prestige or Oscar appeal go. Maybe even Blitz, which has already been dinged for being too 'traditional' though I'd argue that it might be a little too non-traditional for voters.
SOUND OFF!
Reader Comments (49)
Please, no more Oscar nominations for Diane Warren.
oh this is fun - ok here goes - biases totally on display haha
1. I will say yes - Best Actress and Screenplay nominations.
2. Divert to Gladiator 2 and leave Dune 2 in the dust
3. I'm going with Almodovar
4.Hard pass - no more Diane Warren!
5. Twice
6. Also MAD RESPECT for Julianne Moore - will the 'sorry for the May December snub' help her possibly??
7. I do love Guy Pearce, and I think Denzel should have 3 already (sorry not sorry that I think he should have won for The Tragedy of MacBeth - and where the hell was Kathryn Hunter's nomination!!!) - so I'm thinking Denzel just might win his third.
8. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Ariana will get more attention than Cynthia.
9. I think because some expect it or want it to happen, that it won't. They don't want each year to shadow the previous - so with the attention for Anatomy of a Fall and the Zone of Interest last year, they will shy away from Foreign this year.
10. How about Conclave doing better than expected, A Complete Unknown being overestimated and missing, and Blitz doing just ok (Saiorse has The Outrun and HOPEFULLY Harris Dickinson has Babygirl)
Phew - what fun!!
you have Kristen Stewart and Carol Kane listed under "never nominated." Both have been nominated
Denzel should not win #3 before he steps out of his comfort zone. I feel that I'm watching the same performance from him for the last 20 years.
Is there an original Diane Warren song in the documentary DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS? If so, maybe that can finally provide the unique circumstances to finally give her a competitive win, so we never have to go through the random nominations again. (I can't believe I had to sit through FLAMIN' HOT last year to record the first ever year I managed to see every one of the nominated films!)
1 Will Hard Truths work for AMPAS?
Marianne Jean-Baptiste—maybe. Otherwise I (sight unseen) doubt it.
2 How many sequels will score big?
(in Elizabeth Taylor voice) Gladiator...2.
And Inside Out 2.
3 Which aging Master will get the Scorsese treatment?
Scott and Almodóvar.
4 Will the music branch give Diane Warren a 16th nod?
What Travis C said.
5 Will Flow score twice? once? not at all?
I am clueless at this point.
6 Exactly how much Category Fraud will we see in Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress this year?
Emilia Pérez...hmmm.
7 Will Denzel win a third?
Not for this. Especially since he might play the same role as a (co)-lead in a potential Gladiator 3.
8 How will voters react to Wicked?
You're gonna be popular!
9 Will any of the International Features score big?
Emilia Pérez...hmmm.
10 Which movie are pundits (myself or others) wildly overestimating in terms of Oscar appeal?
A Complete Unknown.
WOW!!! Just found your blog. THIS IS AMAZING!!!!
alt pants
One more year.
Here we go again...
1. Always unpredictable, but I don't think so.
Probably only Jean-Baptiste has a good chance for Best Actress and the Original Screenplay.
2. I hope no. Probably "Dune - Part II" are in, considering they LOVED the first movie. I'd love to see a nomination for Rebecca Ferguson. Is it possible?
3. A Master named Francis Ford Coppola?
4. I hope so. She REALLY must win someday.
5. Probably in Animated Feature Film.
6. Better both get a nomination. Lead? Supporting? I really don't know. I consider both lead. I want to see a Thelma & Louise scenario again.
7. NO, PLEASE!!!!! He doesn't deserve his 9 noms - he should have 6.
We don't need an other overrated Mery Streep! DEFINITELY NO!!!!!
8. I see a failure like "The Color Purple" - or even worst, something like "Cats".
There's no "Wicked" without Idina and Kristin. Period.
9. Yes. "Emilia Perez". I predict a lot of noms.
10. "Gladiator 2". The first movie won in a VERY STRANGE AND COMPLICATED YEAR (Forgive them, "Wonder Boys" and "Almost Famous". Humm... "Billy Elliot" too.)
I don't think it's coming so strong, although Scott deserves recognition. But, for this one? I love Mescal, but for this one?
And "Blitz", that I consider absolutely out.
Marianne needs the LA, NY, and National Society trinity.
Category fraud is alive and well. I read that Culkin and Saldaña are totally leads.
Fun prediction list. I did think some acting omissions were eyebrow raising - Daniel Craig in Queer, Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson, and Isabella Rossellini in Conclave.
My big question is where (if) horror will fit into the race this year.
The Substance made a huge splash and provides a fantastic comeback for a Hollywood favorite. The screenplay is already critically acclaimed. The quality of makeup is also fantastic. Will the voters be able to embrace body horror to recognize some fantastic film artistry?
Smile 2, if it submits for Original Song (and it should), has fantastic music. Could it break through with the music branch for the nomination?
And just for the gram, will their admiration for Glenn Close translate to another well-deserved nomination even if it's for a campy, polarizing horror film? She's that good in The Deliverance.
Finbar - it would be great to see Craig for queer - but after them completely ignoring the masterpiece ‘All of Us Strangers’ makes me think they won’t embrace a queer film entitled’Queer’.
And ‘Babygirl’ might be too sexual for their taste too unfortunately.
Random observation: if Denzel does win, then each of the four male actors who have won three Oscars will have done so with different combinations of lead/supporting:
Denzel Washington- two supporting, one lead
Jack Nicholson- two lead, one supporting
Walter Brennan- three supporting
Daniel Day-Lewis- three lead
I think Baptiste would need to be THE British actress this year to get the nomination. It just seems so unlikely. I mean, if Alfre Woodard couldn't make it in, I don't see why she can. The academy is still resistant to actors of color and character actors in leading roles. They also hold Leigh at arms length.
I suspect that if Denzel wins, then he'll still be in competition for a 2nd lead win the next time he's in contention. I think he's basically at the point that Meryl was in the late 2000s and early 2010s. There is a strong desire to see him win a second lead acting Oscar. I suspect this will keep him from winning, but if Gladiator II is a behemoth, then he could still win.
In terms of legacy, I suspect that Denzel playing another villain will keep him from winning. I get the sense that there's a desire to see him win for something else.
I'm a little peeved that The Substance isn't in contention more, especially with Demi Moore's CAREER BEST performance. Like, this is the best thing she has ever done in anything... EVER! Everyone is saying it's her finest hour and the reviews for her have been outstanding. I don't see how the Academy can ignore that.
I would also love for The Substance to be considered in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Sound, BEST MAKEUP! Come on!!
You don't have The Substance not even in make-up? Costumes, Cinematography, Production Design? Directing (they need a female nominee and Fargeat is the only contender)?
Now that you're back (thanks!!!!!), please end the suspense and tell us who won the Film Bitch gold medal in Best Actress.
Just no Diane Warren. These aren't even original songs anymore.
It sounds like AI generated parodies of "uplifting power ballad."
I thought Marianne Jean-Baptiste was truly excellent in Hard Truths and unlike cinephiles I spoke to, I thought Hard Truths was a very good return-to-form Mike Leigh film with a great cast and an outstanding lead.
By the way it has been 28 years since Jean-Baptiste was nominated for Secrets & Lies, not 18 years.
I think there is an outside chance that Mike Leigh will sneak in as a director nominee although I agree that screenplay is a stronger bet. Plus his long-time cameraman -- the esteemed Dick Pope -- very recently passed away and that might make people curious to watch Hard Truths. I saw it on a matinee at the BFI London Film Festival where Mike Leigh (and Michele Austin) made a surprise appearance. The audience that afternoon clearly love him.
It would be great if, aside from Marianne Jean-Baptiste, the lineup for lead actress includes Fernanda Torres, Tilda Swinton, Demi Moore and Zoe Saldaña but it's not gonna happen because Angelina Jolie, Saoirse Ronan, Mikey Madison and Karla Sofia Gascon are discussed more often.
@Robert G - I saw The Deliverance too (not really a good movie) but Glenn Close was a riot as a 'white black woman'. I don't think her role as Alberta in that film has any buzz but the minute an outré and high profile critics group bestows her a recognition in the BSA category, she might be an exciting dark horse. But I don't think it's going to happen this year.
Not sure about Diane Warren's umpteenth nomination. I don't dislike her but there are other film songs and songwriters out there to consider, no?
I know this is sacrilegious in this site but I wasn't a big fan of "Wicked" when I saw it onstage on Broadway. Granted it wasn't Kristin Chenoweth and Idina Menzel who played the lead roles when I saw it but I am probably one of the very very few who wasn't bowled over. But the movie might surprise. And why have parts 1 and 2 for a story that can be told in one film?
I heard that Gladiator 2 is spectacular, like grand opera or something so there is a big chance it sneaks in the best picture lineup. I wish the buzz for supporting actor favors Samuel L Jackson for The Piano Lesson but some campaign machineries have bigger budgets.
For the international film, I plan on seeing On Becoming a Guinea Fowl and All We Imagine as Light when they open.
Am I the only one who likes Ryûsuke Hamaguchi's Evil Does Not Exist? There was no mention of the film among the year's best from any group, so maybe I am the odd one here.
Haven't seen either performance so who knows, but on paper giving Denzel a 3rd Oscar when that could mean Guy Pearce will never win one ... I don't like that at all. Big stars can simply be big stars. They don't have to have 3 Oscars too. Pearce has been reliably excellent for something like 30 years and this is probably the best chance he'll ever have to win.
I also think Ariana will get more attention than Cynthia.
No way they are skipping over Dune 2
10. I think Blitz and Conclave. Two Popes didn't make it into Best Picture and I think Hollywood is too secular to truly embrace a movie about organized religion. Blitz looks like it might receive pretty mixed reviews
cal -- it's not that i don't think it's worth voting for in some of those categories (the substance) but I have a hard time squaring its outre almost camp nature with anything Oscar has ever gone for. Plus their aversion to horror in general... even in the makeup category where you think horror films would show up on the regular.
Firstly can I just say great to have you posting again.
1 Leigh has a chance in screenplay just like Baptiste has a chance in Best Actress but i'd prefer Demi Moore.
2 Gladiator II seems to be the film that's shiny and new they go for but Dune II has the reviews
3 I think Pedro will be nominated and Scott too and maybe Scott wins.
4 Warren should have won years ago so No.
5 Never heard of Flow
6 Saldana, and Culkin are the co leads of the films thus both are frontrunners,sad face.
7 No,Denzel is an actor I find very overrated I think he has been worthy about 4 times
8 Craft and costume noms and that's about it,Erivo didn't help matters this week.
9 Emilia Perez is the one this year.
10 Blitz,The Substance,The Outrun and maybe even Gladiator II.
@ Nathaniel
What Ever Happened to Baby Jane - five noms, one win
Rosemary's Baby - two noms, one win
The Exorcist - ten noms, two wins
Death Becomes Her - one nom, one win
Mary Shelley's Frankenstein - one nom
Bram Stoker's Dracula - four noms, three wins
Shadow of the Vampire - two noms
It's time for The Substance...and Nosferatu
Frank, while the Academy has occasionally recognized horror films, it is very rare that a gory horror film breaks through, especially in the modern era. Toni Colette, for example, had a lot of support for Hereditary but the film did not break through at major awards ceremonies. Hereditary is quite tame compared to The Substance, a full on body horror film.
Cronenberg's work did not really break through the Academy until he stepped away from body horror (The Fly aside, which was one of the only times a body horror film won Best Makeup).
My own ballot is going to have a lot of recognition The Substance (as well as Love Lies Bleeding and I Saw the TV Glow), but I just don't see it standing much of a chance outside of Demi Moore, maybe Fargeat for Original Screenplay, and Makeup in that order.
Always great to see your updated predictions, Nathaniel, as my key source of reliable Oscar punditry. I'm excited to dive more in. Hopeful that Sing Sing pulls through where you said it would. I will say that, having seen Small Things Like These, I do NOT think it will be a contender at all. While Murphy may be hot from his Oscar win last year, this film is nowhere near the same scope or profile.
Besides picture, screenplay, actress, director and makeup, The Substance should really be considered for Costumes. The yellow coat, the Cinderella dress, and the 80s inspired workout gear were amazing. In a just world.
i'm with Ad_Mil: i too feel i've been watching Denzel give that same performance for over 20 years. he's been over-nominated and Oscar-ed enough!
i love this time in the yearly movie calendar, where so many things seem possible and we haven't narrowed down to the same 5 or 6 people in each category.
Is this comment section filled with BAFTA voters? I’m surprised to see so much Denzel hate.
On the substance, I’m curious if we see critics embrace Demi.
I saw Blitz in the Mill Valley Film Festival, and unfortunately it's just not good. I have to say it's my #1 pick for overrated Oscar-bait movie of the year. It was clichéd from start to finish. Ronan has practically no chance for a Supporting nom for this performance. I was quite surprised with the quality of the film and never would have known it was directed by McQueen if it hadn't said so. One review says it's like an early 90s Oscar bait from a generic Hollywood director, and I have to agree...
Joe G.,
Washington is a great actor, bur he IS extremely overrated.
Frankly, a nomination for "Flight"? "Roman J. Israel, Esq."?
Even in "Fences" I think he's over, totally out of tone, especially with Davis shining in every scene.
I agree with Ad_Mil: he's doing the same thing for decades. Like Streep.
He's not Tracy, Newman and Pacino. He doesn't deserve all that nominations. More nominated than Dustin Hoffman? It's insane!
No chances for Challengers in score and editing?
@JoeG When does thinking an actor is overrated or over nominated become hate?
@MrRipley79 - when the actor you think is overrated has 3+ more nominations than you think they should have
HAHA - just messing with you lol 😂
I'm so happy to see you posting about the Oscars again, Nathaniel.
I almost can't believe Ralph Fiennes is actually in an Oscar-baity movie he could win for - I'm rooting for Conclave for this reason no matter how traditional it seems.
If Blitz gets 7 nominations, I think Ronan will be one of them - they will nominate her before Gomez or Watson in a small film.
Owl - I loved Evil Does Not Exist (I liked it more than Drive My Car). But it was eligible for International Film last year, and Japan chose Perfect Days over it. Normally a foreign film has to be a huge breakout success on the level of City of God to score nods the year after its International Film eligibility.
I think it's sad how we can all see fine but unexciting films like Conclave or Blitz sail to like 6 nominations, while The Substance has tons of ardent fans and we're all still doubting if it can get anything beyond makeup.
@Iñaki Gold
Conclave looks and sounds great.
Honestly, the type of online person who thinks The Substance deserves 11 nominations is someone who will never be happy with the Oscars and probably shouldn't make any emotional investment in film awards.
Every year it's a chorus of people going "Why doesn't this 100-year-old institution with its own aesthetics and preferences share my exact taste?"
Yikes. I don't even believe X or Y deserves anything, I understand the Academy has its own tastes. I'm just commenting on how certain genres and types of films have a much easier path to nominations than others. Think about Maestro's 6 nominations last year vs All of us strangers, May December, Past Lives, etc, which will probably be more fondly remembered by people.
You know how it goes.
@Inaki I get what you are saying,something like the Substance is likely to have more longevity than a Blitz or a Conclave in fact even The Brutalist and A Real Pain will likely be forgotten in years to come like so many Oscar nominated films but that is the way the academy are,they like what they like and sometimes it's middle of the road unexciting stuff that fades from memory once the next season rolls round.
I hope members can look beyond genre bias and Demi's movie star status to appreciate what she brings to The Substance but I doubt they will,I don't think anyone would say any of Demi's previous performances were deserving of any Oscar love and i'm a huge fan of hers.
I enjoyed The Substance and Demi Moore is quite good in it—but the film treats her like a prop, her physical presence might as well be the yellow coat or that perfectly designed “Substance” packaging. She’s a beautiful, perfectly selected element among many beautiful, perfectly chosen elements.
I think she’s great in the “getting ready for a date” scene and that would serve as a good “Oscar clip,” but to say she created a distinct character or gave more than a passing glimpse at that character’s emotional life would be a stretch.
@Fabio, Hoffman is a great actor (and a double lead winner), but he stopped being a leading man/key supporting player 30-35 years into his career. Like Newman, Washington continues to be a leading man 40 years into his career who works a lot. He's going to simply get nominations because of that.
I guess I bristle at the idea that Washington is always doing the same thing. First, he's a movie star. They work in a series of modes and characters are sometimes designed around them. Second, he does have different modes he works in and each of those reveals something about his own sense of the character's masculinity and sense of place. His character in Crimson Tide is different from his Flight character and his Fences character. They're all different men who are complicated for different reasons.
I guess, like Streep, I find Washington perfectly rated. He's exciting to watch on screen and makes the films he's in more watchable. It's just fun to watch him have a good time acting.
Denzel is not where Streep was 10-15 years ago. The level of adoration for La Streep is much higher. And yes, I agree that Denzel, unlike Streep, is always the same. I am definitely not rooting for a third Oscar for him. Not to mention that he didn’t even deserve most of his nods in the last decade.
You are way overestimating A Complete Unknown with one category in particular: there is no way James Mangold gets nominated for Director. Movie looks fine but completely formulaic, which can do well in other categories but not with the directors branch, which likes their swings bigger and artier. If your predictions came true, I suspect the two things that would cause the biggest fuss online would be Mangold specifically getting in over every single director of color (#OscarsSoWhiteAgain) and Karla Sofia Gascon getting snubbed despite Emilia Perez doing well everywhere else (#OscarsTransphobic).
I also suspect you're underestimating Sing Sing and Dune Part 2 (opening early has been advantageous for the past three Oscar ceremonies, and those two were this year's only real early-in-the-year contenders) and perhaps most of all Nickel Boys, which seems like Amazon MGM's top priority and from reviews sounds like this year's Zone of Interest (more experimental that Oscar usually likes but the critical acclaim and important subject matter makes it undeniable). I'd think the first person style wins in Cinematography in a similar way to how Zone of Interest won for Sound.
I don't have many answers about the race right now, but I just saw your charts. There is not a single Warner Brothers title in your predicted finalists for Best Picture. I can't remember the last year that happened. Even some of their weakest slates find something to campaign and .get nominated.
Nathaniel, I always appreciate the wide array of possibilities you present, so we remember all the talent and artistry we’ve seen in the past year at the movies. With more to come!
1) I would like to see Hard Truths get nominations for Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay.
2) Three. Gladiator II, Dune 2, Inside Out 2.
3) Why are these masters of their craft so underappreciated?
a) Agnieska Holland for The Green Border
b) Mike Leigh for Hard Truths
c) Ridley Scott for Gladiator II
4) The Best Song category always puzzles me.
5) idk
6) sigh
7) If there is a Supporting Actor nomination for Gladiator II, I would like it to be for Pedro Pascal. Denzel gets to act sitting down. Pedro (who is 20 years older than Paul Mescal) is acting and doing fight and combat scenes. Also, it seems Pedro is the only one with a love interest (the wonderful Connie Nielsen). They may only have a few short scenes together, but I bet those scenes are heart breaking.
8) Since Wicked has 2 parts (!) they may wait for part 2 for awards.
9) Agnieska Holland’s The Green Border was finally released in the US this year. Those people who have seen it, call it a great artistic achievement.
10) Others may not tire of these as quickly as I would.
a) Conclave: The traditional Important movie with a large cast of male actors (“thespians” even!) doing Important male only things.
b) Anora: the trope “hooker with a heart of gold” (especially with a fresh cute ingenue) seems to perennially hit the entrenched comfort zone of some viewers.
c) Emilia Perez: Performances, yes. Screenplay, no. Emilia Perez has some similarities with Joker: Folie a Deux. It jerks from scene to scene and crumbles apart by the end.
Joe G,
We really disagree.
I can't remember the last time Washington made something exciting for me.
Maybe "Antwone Fisher"?
DK,
Completely agree about "The Substance" and Demi Moore - and I like her a lot. I'd love to see her nomination, but I can't consider this a lock. For me she ans the makeup are the highlights of the movie.
Reuben Baron,
I don't think we're overestimating "A Complete Unknown" and James Mangold. He probably deserves more than people like Taylor Hackford in "Ray and Morten Tyldon in "The Imitation Game". That's completely formulaic!
Lenard W.,
Why is Warner Bros. snubbing "Juror #2"?
Never, never, never underestimate Clint Eastwood.
And Hoult looks great, finally getting a great leading role.
I'm not so convinced Ronan will get in for The Outrun ... the film came and went very quickly and got good but not great reviews. If Blitz has more buzz, I can see her getting in for Supporting but not doubling with a Best Actress nod.
1)I think so. If not the acting branch, then the writers’ branch who have always loved Leigh. Apart from the mix-reviewed Peterloo and All or Nothing, all of the director’s post-Secrets & Lies films have won some AMPAS support. Remember Mr. Turner’s four nominations? The writing citations for Another Year and Happy-Go-Lucky? Vera Drake’s three above-line nods? Topsy Turvy’s two wins? And then there’s Secrets & Lies itself. I feel like it’ll get in Original Screenplay if nothing else. Best Actress? Maybe, though I wonder if dislike for the character will hurt Jean-Baptiste’s chances.
2) I think you’re underestimating Dune a great deal. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Furiosa got some below-the-line nominations. I think branches like Costume and Sound will bat for it even if no one else will.
3) In Best Director, I would bet on Ridley Scott, though I would hardly consider him a master on the level of Scorsese. I wonder if Eastwood can get some buzz despite being screwed over by Warner Bros. Or maybe Walter Salles? I keep feeling like The Room Next Door will fail with American audiences and voters and The Outrun may be eclipsed by Blitz as far as Ronan vehicles go. That would leave I’m Still Here as an unlikely focus for Sony Pictures Classic campaign. They surely seem confident about it. After a qualifying run, they’ll release it on Oscar nomination week!
4) Yes.
5) I think it’ll only get into Animated Feature, if that. Indeed, I keep expecting to hear it has been disqualified for having no dialogue whatsoever or even written words on screen. Then again, renaming it International Feature instead of Foreign Language Film might preclude the category from committing such injustices. But even then, I don’t see it getting into that race. Maybe the shortlist if there are enough cat people in the Academy’s ranks.
6) A lot! More on that later.
7) At this early point in the race, it feels like a race between Washington and Culkin (category fraud!). Pearson and Maclin (more category fraud!!) could mount incredible campaigns, though. Indeed, all around, I think you’re underestimating A Different Man. I fully believe Stan is going to get a Best Actor nomination for that and Pearson doesn’t feel that far behind. Give him an early season opportunity to deliver a winning speech and he might just win the public’s favor. I know it’s stupid to rely on gut feelings, but Pearce feels like one of those sure thing nominations that never feel like they’ll ever go beyond the nomination.
8) I expect that this will be a reviews-proof cultural phenomenon and box office hit. At that point, I think the Oscars won’t be able to ignore it, especially with the colossal PR campaign they’re putting together. Then again, they did pretend Wonka didn’t exist last year despite immense popularity with mainstream audiences.
9) Emilia Pérez for sure, I’m Still Here maybe, and I think The Seed of the Sacred Fig can surge at the right time and become a dark horse contender in multiple categories. Sadly, I don’t think All We Imagine As Light will get any of the gold it deserves. Same for my beloved Grand Tour, even in the International Film category.
10) Seeing audience reactions outside the bubble of film communities and critical circles is making me think we are actually underestimating Conclave. I would even predict it in Production Design, for example. But that wasn’t your question. To answer the real thing, I must say I think you’re overestimating The Room Next Door.
I absolutely disagree with the notion that Streep and Denzel are on the same level career-wize or regarding their nominations. Streep, even in her slightest nominated performances, creates unique characterization and attempts inspired work through the material that she is given. Denzel, on the other hand, eclipses the material with his signature bombastic on-screen persona, often repeats himself and thus is more of a star than a character-actor.
If someone is overdue for #3 it's Cate Blanchett.