Oscar Volleys: Best Adapted Screenplay is a confusing mess!
Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 11:00AM Lynn Lee and Christopher James discuss the race for the Adapted Screenplay Oscar...
EMILIA PÉREZ, Jacques Audiard | © Netflix
LYNN: Another year, another head-scratcher over what counts as “adapted” for Oscar purposes. To be sure, this season there doesn’t seem to be any classification controversy on the level of last year’s Barbie kerfuffle. But, as ever, there’s some pretty transparent strategic positioning – such as the decision to campaign Emilia Pérez in adapted instead of original, which was likely driven by an assessment that adapted is the less competitive of the two this year.
Does that calculation seem right to you, and will it pay off? And does this mean we might have two musicals nominated for adapted screenplay this year, if Wicked also gets in (as I think it will)? Has that ever happened before?
CHRISTOPHER: I love the ever changing definition of “adapted,” which just seems to be “can you point to any written source that kinda relates to your film.” This year is such a strange year, as all of the frontrunners would be considered odd picks in past years...
The biggest surprise for me is how much the precursors have loved Emilia Pérez (and not just because I would count myself among one of the detractors). Wherever it campaigns, I think it’s safe to say that it will get a nomination. A win for musicals is often very hard in writing (even nominations are hard for them), which is why I wouldn’t put it as the frontrunner. Wicked is safe in many categories, but I don’t think it’s safe here. While movies like Chicago and A Star is Born earned nominations here, other Best Picture nominated musicals like Les Misérables and Moulin Rouge! were snubbed.
The one true lock I would put here is Conclave. The drama about the election of a new pope is perfectly tailored for this category. There are a number of satisfying twists and turns. It’s become a surprise hit (and meme sensation) and will be nominated across the board. Even if it doesn’t go all the way in categories like Picture, Director or Actor, this feels like a great place to give it a consolation prize.
CONCLAVE, Edward Berger | © Focus Features
Would you agree that Conclave is locked as a nominee in this category, or are there any other frontrunners you see here? Also, are there any other nominees you consider locks or secure here?
LYNN: Totally agree Conclave is a lock. However you feel about its twists and turns, especially the final one, there’s no denying Peter Straughan’s success in turning a movie about a particularly formalized and ritualistic process into an intrigue-laden thriller! Obviously much of the credit goes to the direction and acting and, of course, the Robert Harris novel it’s based on, to which the screenplay is apparently quite faithful. But Oscar voters are likely to want to reward the movie’s papal-pulp fiction effectiveness in some way and, as you note, adapted screenplay seems like the lowest hanging fruit.
Sing Sing feels like the closest to a lock after Conclave; it’s been picking up a lot of awards buzz lately across the board, and the base story is undeniably inspiring. I agree that Emilia Perez is likely in as well, based on its precursor performance, though I keep wondering if backlash regarding its authenticity (or lack thereof), in its portrayal of trans identity and/or Mexico, isn’t going to catch up with it at some point. I actually liked the film – it works best if you treat it as the opera it was originally intended to be – but I would not say the writing (or adaptation) is its strongest suit; it’s powered by the acting and direction even more than Conclave is.
I continue to believe Wicked is in, notwithstanding the annoying decision to stretch the story across two movies. (Conversely, I think Dune 2 – which has turned into a bit of an Oscars afterthought this year, especially compared with its predecessor – is out of contention in this category.)
Moving away from locks, I think The Wild Robot might be a sleeper here. It’s a long shot, considering how few animated features have ever been nominated for screenplay (original or adapted). But it’s a very successful adaptation of a beloved book (series?), and in a relatively open year, why not?
What else do you see in the mix?
SING SING, Greg Kwedar | © A24
CHRISTOPHER: I completely agree that Sing Sing is a strong contender. It has a compelling and crowd-pleasing story, and the narrative surrounding its source material makes it an ideal candidate for this category. This makes three movies pretty secure for a nomination - Conclave, Sing Sing, and Emilia Pérez.
For the last two slots, I think they are going to go to a blockbuster and an underdog, respectively. For the blockbuster slot, it’s going to be either Wicked or Dune Part 2. At this moment, I'm predicting Wicked over Dune Part 2 in this showdown. While I noted that musicals have had a hard time in this category, the stellar box office performance and recency bias will help it out tremendously. If it really has as good of a shot as people think for Best Picture, it will need to secure a nomination here (as well as Director) to be a real contender. Even though it showed up well at the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes performance of Dune Part 2 gives me a lot of pause on how it will perform at the Oscars. Getting only Best Picture and Score demonstrates a potential lack of top-of-mind enthusiasm for the sequel. Being so early in the year may have bumped it from some people’s minds.
Plus, with stars Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya also having awards contenders they’re promoting (A Complete Unknown and Challengers, respectively) those movies may be more top of mind than Dune Part 2.
Now for the long shot – I love the idea of The Wild Robot being a potential dark horse nominee. It has its fervent fans and is a charming, emotionally involving family film. The more it wins different Animated Feature races, the better shot it has here. I am still hoping that Nickel Boys sneaks in. The film is a challenging watch, both because of the subject matter but also the first person POV structure. That decision may also make it seem more like a “director’s film,” though I find the script to be a beautifully structured and intricate way to tell such a harrowing story. It has precursor support, but it could easily be an Academy snub. I’m also rooting for I’m Still Here, the Brazilian film which was just shortlisted for International Feature, which if it plays its cards right could expand beyond that category for writing and actress (Fernanda Torres).
This last long shot is more a personal one, but count me on the pro side of Nightbitch. Yes, there are some repeated beats, but I really responded to the central character’s frustrations and found it to be a wonderful portrait of rebelling against the way society views you and finding ways of processing frustration.
Other than The Wild Robot, what other movies do you think are in the hunt for those final two slots?
NICKEL BOYS, RaMell Ross | © Amazon MGM Studios
LYNN: Sadly, I’ve not had a chance to see Nickel Boys as it hasn’t opened yet near me, but everything I hear about it convinces me it has an excellent chance at a nod... assuming Oscar voters watch it! As always, I wonder about the strategy of opening so late in the year and in such limited release – while Academy members have access to screeners and are more attuned to festival and critical buzz than general audiences, there’s still only so much time for a film to make its mark in the end-of-year rush, especially one featuring a singular artistic vision and heavy subject matter.
I have similar thoughts about The Room Next Door, though it at least has the Almodóvar stamp and two superstar actresses to grab voters’ attention, and the late release is kind of Sony Pictures Classics’ MO. Whereas I’m not sure what Amazon MGM Studios’ calculus is, if any – perhaps it tilts in favor of getting Nickel Boys onto Prime sooner rather than later, but it’s not clear when that’s happening, either.
A Complete Unknown could also be a potential contender here, depending on how strongly it performs across the board. Clearly everyone is going to see it for Timothée Chalamet. Will they like it enough to reward the book-derived screenplay, which focuses on a key turning point in Bob Dylan’s career (rather than his entire lifespan, per the standard biopic formula) and to its credit doesn’t try to excuse or explain his prickly assholish tendencies? Perhaps...and yet musical biopics, even when they snag multiple nominations, don’t tend to get recognized in this category.
Are there any films you think should have been in contention but, for whatever reason, are not?
CHRISTOPHER: You make some excellent points around A Complete Unknown. Since it had a strong enough box office start, I could see this film be top of mind for voters and corral a number of nominations. The Academy loves their music biopics, and this film does a really great job of zeroing in not just on a period of Dylan’s career, but on a community of folk artists in New York. If this film, Wicked and Emilia Perez get nominations, this will be an overwhelmingly music forward category. Walk the Line got snubbed in this category, but this movie could feel a bit more like Cooper’s A Star is Born in terms of nomination performance if it really hits.
In terms of movies that should’ve been contenders, other than the long shots I’ve spoken of already, it’s hard to say whether this film would contend on the adapted side (since it uses “pre-existing characters”) or on the original side (since it is an original script and falls under parody). However, few movies have bowled me over this year quite like The People’s Joker. Vera Drew has made a gloriously ugly version of Gotham City overrun by the “UCB” comedy troupe. What’s most impressive is how its send up of the comedy community is mere set dressing for an incredibly emotional and involving trans coming of age film. It’s brimming with ingenuity, heart and comedy. Wherever it would contend, I would vote for it.
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR, Pedro Almodóvar | © Sony Pictures Classics
I only just the other night watched The Room Next Door, based on the book What Are You Going Through by Sigrid Nunez. It was an incredibly emotional watch, with Almodóvar getting great performances out of its lead actresses. His first feature in English, the dialogue felt purposefully stilted, almost reminiscent of a Yorgos Lanthimos film, and it took a while to sink into the world. However, I’d love for the film to be in the conversation more. It’s a beautiful and difficult story that’s beautifully rendered by these artists at the top of their game.
What films did you wish were getting more attention here?
LYNN: Here’s where I go to bat for a film that everyone else seems to have forgotten already: Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders. Is the story particularly original or hard-hitting? No. Yet it answered the question that bugged me ever since I first heard the film was being made – “How do you make a movie out of a photo book?” – much more satisfyingly than I expected. Once again, much of the credit goes to the acting, direction, and cinematography that brought those striking stills to life, as well as the tapes that Danny Lyon, the photojournalist who compiled the book, made of his interviews with the real-life subject played by Jodie Comer, a lot of whose dialogue was lifted directly from those recordings. But Nichols’ writing also deserves its due for somehow stitching together these components into a fluid and surprisingly compelling, if loose, drama that both captures and ultimately debunks the mythos of the motorcycle clubs of the ’60s and ’70s. I realize I’m in the minority on this point, as the film was mostly treated as pretty images and spots of good acting in search of a narrative. But it worked for me, as the distillation of an era if nothing else.
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN, James Mangold | © Searchlight Pictures
CHRISTOPHER: Let’s wrap up with our predictions in this category. I was going to go with Nickel Boys (and still hoping for it), but you convinced me on A Complete Unknown.
- Conclave
- Sing Sing
- Emilia Pérez
- Wicked
- A Complete Unknown
What about you?
LYNN: This is tough. It’s funny that I convinced you to include A Complete Unknown instead of Nickel Boys, because on further reflection, I’m going exactly the other way! I think the literary prestige factor and emotional wallop of Nickel Boys, plus the general lack of screenplay love for music biopics (in addition to Walk the Line not getting a nom, neither did Elvis, Ray, or – hold your snark – Bohemian Rhapsody), tip the scale in favor of the former. I see the final lineup shaking out so:
- Conclave
- Sing Sing
- Wicked
- Emilia Pérez
- Nickel Boys
WICKED, Jon M. Chu | © Universal Pictures
OTHER VOLLEYS:
Reader Comments (3)
Conclave.
The movie where in 15 minutes is obvious who will be the new Pope.
Best screenplay.
Oscar.
Sure, Jan
I cant see any mess in Adapted Screenplay.
For me it's pretty clear: "Conclave" is the absolute frontrunner.
Certain as the Sun rising in the East.
I know this is a longshot but I would consider Nosferatu for that list as I thought it was a great film.