Do Oscar Predictions Hurt or Help Films?

Sasha Stone has begun her Oscar Roundtables again this year at Awards Daily. It's kind of like The Film Experience's annual Oscar Symposium only more regular, more crowded, and less a back-n-forth discussion than a collection of statements.  I'm always happy to be invited.

One of the questions she asked was whether we thought it was insane to predict as early as we do and if that helped or hurt films to be assumed for nominations before anyone had even seen a frame of film. To which I responded:

Being seen as a Future Nominee ahead of time 100% helps you if the achievement is somewhere in the wide fuzzy area between “sure thing” and “for your consideration” because you can take on a sheen of “nominatable” or “worthy” that you might not have earned on your own. It’s really not that much different from the advantage of being a proven brand like a Streep or a Scorsese or whomever. You don’t have to earn a place on the board with your new work. You’re already a game piece. You just have to worry about winning. It’s taken as gospel that we as viewers are supposed to assume that some filmmakers and some actors are just brilliant every time and our only job is to decide “very brilliant” “somewhat brilliant” or “not one of their best but still brilliant”. I’m only half joking. This is a very real problem I think in honest discussions of merit.

I love Mark Harris's response

I’m not sure I’d chart it on the sanity/insanity spectrum. But it does seem a little like the equivalent of the comment-board guy who posts “First!” and then has nothing else to say. Obviously, it’s naïve to think that quality is the only thing that figures into an Oscar win. But it’s just as naïve to assume that quality matters so little that you can make a judgment without even seeing the movie. Isn’t half the fun of writing about the Oscars the chance to write about the movies themselves? Why deprive ourselves of that?

Anyway, other questions and answers are over there so read up.

I'd love to hear your take. Do you think it hurts or helps films to be predicted as Oscar threats? Does it affect your enjoyment at all when you're watching a film with months of buzz chatter already absorbed in your system?

Tuesday Ten: "Abduction"

Earlier today I got booted from an Oscar contender screening (Mexico's Miss Bala) that was over capacity. There was once this great thing called a "book store" (sound it out. I know it's unfamiliar) where it was easy to kill a couple of hours when you didn't have a laptop with you and something went wrong schedule wise. I've yet to find a suitable alternative so I went to the multiplex. The only movie starting at the right time to fill my schedule gap? ABDUCTION. I feel terrible about contributing to its box office gross but I will make it up to the cinema gods somehow (my first born child?). Don't judge me too harshly. I'm sure you've done something terribly terribly wrong in your life!

I'm opting to stay positive by listing... The Ten Best Things About Abduction

Best Trailer Screen Cap: Sigourney Weaver and Taylor Lautner with a huge black title card celebrating Sigourney Weaver covering his face. YES!!!

01 Sigourney Weaver has a fun entrance in one scene carrying a huge bouquet of balloons. 

02 At one point the villain threatens to kill all of Taylor Lautner's fans* on Facebook. (*okay he says "friends" but some people deserve to die.)

03 The star's girlfriend's eyebrows are more masculine than his.

04 In the movie's best stunt Lautner hurts his ankle and he remembers to limp for most of the rest of the scene. ACTING!

05 The movie hides the face of one key character the whole time but the lips were enough to give him away. Hi, Dermot Mulroney! Also: I will now fantasize that Dermot Mulroney did this for the money and was smart enough to put it in his contract that his whole face not be shown and thus associated with this movie. If Maria Bello, Jason Isaac, and Sigourney Weaver had all done the same this movie would have been very avant garde what with the entire adult supporting cast only shown through extreme closeups of lips and eyes.

06 The climax takes place at a ball game and I was able to reminisce about how good Moneyball is.

07 Maria Bello has this really emotional scene opposite a block of wood that questions its provenance "Are you my mother?" And she totally sells her love for the block of wood! "I'm not your mother but you are my son." That's what a damn fine actor she is!

08 It ended.

I tried to get to ten. I honestly did! 

It was terr-i-ble.

NYFF: 'A Dangerous Method' with Keira Unleashed

Kurt here. I'll admit I'm not as well-versed in the work of David Cronenberg as a 27-year-old cinephile should be, but I know enough to confidently conclude that A Dangerous Method, while every bit worth seeing, won't go down as a definitive entry in the Canadian maestro's oeuvre. A bubbling marriage of the sexual and the cerebral, the material surely speaks to Cronenberg's penchant for exploring the curious links between mind and body, but the resulting film doesn't haunt, nor does it even consistently provoke, short of whatever reactions are elicited from the recurring spanking of Keira Knightley's bum. A prestige piece through and through, A Dangerous Method is the intersection of a handful of prior collaborators, teaming Cronenberg with muse Viggo Mortensen, Dangerous Liaisons and Atonement screenwriter Christopher Hampton (who here adapts his own 2002 play, The Talking Cure), and Atonement leading lady Keira Knightley. It seems an almost experimental assemblage of talent, with Cronenberg's newfound Oscar-friendliness put into the mix with some very Oscary playmates. It could be grander, it could be harder, it could be better.

But damn, is it watchable, especially in regard to Knightley's performance as Sabina Spielrein, the unhinged, yet shrewd, Russian fetishist who ultimately comes between psych titans Sigmund Freud (Mortensen) and Carl Jung (Michael Fassbender). A violently screaming Sabina is the first thing you see after some ink-on-paper credits, and it's immediately arresting, if only because you've never seen Knightley so...loud. This is easily Knightley's most impassioned and most transformative performance, one that's sure to have Oscar calling in whatever category she lands in (note to voters: it's a leading role). For a long while, I was having a hard time deciding if her turn was too shrill or dead-on, but I'm leaning toward the latter, despite the lingering sense that she's operating on a wild plane independent of the film. Ably tackling a convincing accent, and looking even more gorgeously gaunt than usual, Knightley plays the sexually-scarred Sabina like a slinky Linda Blair, her deep, dark and gyrating confessions to Jung trickling out as if part of a deep-seated, slow-motion seizure that's long been brewing in her groin. It's uncomfortably compelling, and it gains interest as the film proceeds, as Sabina proves to be much more than her demons.

Mortensen also slips deep into his character, in a performance that's also likely to have at least some amount of gold thrown at it. Behind dark contacts and a good bit of facial hair, he steps into uncommon character-actor territory, to which his handsomely-aging face lends itself well (he's also best with the movie's easy, unassuming humor, which finds a mature, yet playful, way to fool with so much clinical sex talk). Faces, I'd say, are Cronenberg's greatest collective asset here, and one he exploits like a pro. I'm avoiding a great deal of plot, because I don't feel that gripping storytelling is the movie's strong suit. But the not-quite-million-dollar mugs of Knightley, Mortensen and Fassbender, all of whom have enough uncannily symmetrical beauty to ensnare you, but enough slightly-offbeat features to keep things interesting, are what hold you from moment-to-moment and stick with you when you leave. Fassbender, bless him, is clean-cut and awkwardly dashing, yet he shares Knightley's cadaverous look, his well-formed bones exceptionally pronounced. And Mortensen gets a lot of mileage out of those wrinkles, swapping out smolder for aloof wisdom.

Of the milieu on display, I found it most interesting to consider a group of characters evaluating their behaviors while Freudian explanations were still being established. Can we imagine a world without them now? Where motivations and actions aren't looked upon with some degree of id assessment? Such thoughts make A Dangerous Method feel important, at the very least in relation to the whole of 2011's output. What burrowed into my head, though, were those faces and that feral performance from Knightley. Getting in the spirit, I kept wondering what she drew from to get into character, what conscious and unconscious Knightley demons brought Sabina to life. Whatever the answer, it worked, as Knightley's method, pardon the pun, is a dangerous one indeed.

Previously on NYFF
The Loneliest Planet brushes against Nathaniel's skin.
Melancholia shows Michael the end of von Trier's world. 

Curio: The Driver

Alexa here.  After seeing Drive this past weekend I am now one of the legions of obsessives screaming about how cool it is all over the internet.  So, of course, I found myself on a search for some original poster designs for the film.  To me, its 80s stylings and rich atmosphere scream for visual homage (it even got Nathaniel sketching again!).  

Here are some recent designs I spotted.  I'm hoping to see more soon.

Poster by Cory Schmitz and Maré Odomo.

Two more from the series.

CLICK TO SEE MORE

Click to read more ...

Sleep Deprivation, Hungarian Potatoes & Oscar Charts

Yesterday morning I had to pass up a chance to see Hungary's Foreign Film submission The Turin Horse which saddened me. But half an hour of footage of peasants boiling potatoes in black and white mixed with three hours of sleep (2011 Insomnia Plague right here!) would not be an ideal match. If I die from operating heavy machinery while sleep deprived (what if my computer falls on me?) please know that it was fun talking movies with you this past decade.

The Turin Horse -- not to be watched without sleep

OSCAR'S FOREIGN FILM RACE
But good news! This week I will be seeing Mexico's submission Miss Bala (more specifically I'm watching it as you read this), Iran's submission A Separation, Turkey's probable submission (Once Upon a Time in Anatolia) and what I suspect will be Argentina's submission The Student which recently received the Academy's official "go ahead, then" despite some initial concerns about its eligibility (something due to the format it was shot in). In other words, it's on! I don't think anyone, even those who say they do, knows what will happen this year with either the executive committee or the nominating groups given how many high profile critical darlings and crowd-pleasing baity entries are already in the mix to split all types of aesthetics in the voting. And we still don't even know about 20 entries including three big deal Oscar countries: Spain (19 noms, 4 wins) update: it's Pa Negre (Black Bread) a Spanish Civil War Drama that won big at the Goyas, Italy (26 noms, 10 wins) and the Czech Republic (8 noms, 3 wins). 

Joshua Marston shot by Andreas Rentz in Berlin, 2011CONTROVERSY
In related news, the controversies we've already noted here are covered over at Deadline in more detail in addition to the new but totally expected story that Albanian's entry "The Forgiveness of Blood" might not be deemed Albanian enough what with Joshua Marston (from California) in the director's chair.

Given that Marston was already booted out of this category once (Maria Full of Grace) due to his citizenship despite his international spirit -- consider that he has yet to make an English language feature -- we are reminded again how frustrating the Academy rules are. You do have to have rules, mind, but there are always casualties when the letter of the law rather than the spirit rules.

Please to enjoy the ever-expanding charts and pass them on! Nobody gives you this category like The Film Experience. 

Trailer for the Swiss entry and the entire Cuban film (if you can speak Spanish) after the jump.

Click to read more ...