'Happy 50th Nastassja' That's One From Our Hearts

Nastassja Kinsi by Richard Avedon

Editors note: For Nastassia Kinski's 50th birthday, I asked Glenn to write up a bit on her appearance in "One From the Heart" since it's a movie I know he loves (even more than me and I like it quite a lot) and also because I like to mark the big milestones for actresses and films. If you haven't seen this movie rent it. If you're too young to know Kinski's work, other must sees include Roman Polanski's Oscar nominee "Tess", the horror remake "Cat People" and Wim Wenders "Paris Texas". Here's Glenn from the great blog Stale Popcorn.

I’m going to commit what must be one of the ultimate cinephile no-no’s and go on the record as stating One from the Heart is my favourite Francis Ford Coppola film. Yes, moreso than The Conversation or Apocalypse Now, even moreso than The Godfather parts one and two, Coppola’s One from the Heart is a personal favourite that, to be sappy and pun-tastic at the same time, I hold very dear to my heart. I don’t have time to get into the hows and the whys, because I’m here to discuss Nastassja Kinski!

Is she for real?

Kinski’s Leila first enters the picture over 30 minutes in, her hair slicked back, waving a sparkler, wearing a beaded yellow one-piece costume and draped with a cape. When Frederick Forrest asks “Is she real?” you have to wonder the same thing. This was Kinski’s first American production and her film following her breakthrough in Roman Polanski’s Tess and she couldn’t have a more eye-popping entrance.

Before long she’s romancing Forrest by performing a dance routine in a neon-lit martini glass to the bluesy trumpet of Tom Waits’ Oscar-nominated music. Coppola himself has said that he envisioned Kinski’s Leila as a "Felliniesque circus performer to represent the twinkling evanescence of Eros,” whatever that means, but her sexy gymnastic routine around the rim of this giant, novelty prop remains the film’s most lasting, and seductive, image. Coppola didn’t exactly make Kinski stretch herself by casting her as an exotic, German goddess, but in the mean time he cemented the image that we all still have of her. And then, poof, “like spit on a grill” Leila is gone; the perfect encapsulation of Las Vegas’ intoxicating, but short-lived high.

But didn’t she leave quite the impression?

Final Oscar Predictions & Questions

Yes, they'll have reason to celebrateWe're getting down to the wire now and doesn't it seem more confusing now that it did a month ago? So strange. The pink elephant in the room might be that the precursors were so entirely uniform that it should be easy to predict. Yet, could it really be so simple as these 11 films showing up everywhere as they have for months

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• The Town
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone

Does this mean we're due for surprises on Tuesday or is it just a year where everyone agrees? Last year, for example, when the prospects of Nine, The Lovely Bones and Invictus suddenly crashed in January wasn't it just a case of people not liking the movies despite their general precursor strength. Is there any film, for example amoung The Big 11 this year that people dislike? The answer is an exclamatory "NO!". Oh sure, nearly all of those films have detractors (as every film has throughout history) but there isn't a film in that group that has people in large numbers going "zzzzz" or "what a piece of shit" or "whatever. NEXT!" like we had last year when District 9 and The Blind Side muscled there way in instead.

Take a cold shower Shutter Island. Tone down those Oscar dreams.

This general strength is probably bad news for any film that would in other years maybe rally for a surprise nomination. But the way I see it there are six more films hanging around that might show up (at this point unexpectedly) in major places IF it's a surprising morning.

• The Ghost Writer (I'm guessing two surprise nods: score & screenplay. But I really don't think Picture/Director is entirely improbable.)
• Shutter Island  (I'm guessing two: sound mixing and art direction but a few more seem possible)
• Another Year (I'm guessing a shutout. Quote Ruth Sheen as Gerry in the film: "Life's not always kind is it?" Yet it could have as many as 3 nominations if Life is Sweet instead.
• Eyesore in Wonderland (I'm guessing the obvious ones like art direction, costumes, makeup, f/x which is 4 too many already and hoping there's not more. But it stands a very good chance of being the non-best picture nominee with the highest total. Life's not always kind, is it?)
• The Way Back (I suspect a shut out but it's a big handsome period epic and you never know...)
• Blue Valentine (i'm guessing 2 nominations. But what if it's 4? both actors & best picture.)

YOU CAN SEE THE BIG CHART HERE with links to each category
But for now just a few big question marks. I'd love your take on these things.

Best Picture
The general perception is that Winter's Bone, The Town or 127 Hours will be the snubee of the 11 constants. I really think Winter's Bone is safe though I couldn't exactly say why i have such certainty. I still worry a bit about The Kids Are All Right as a surprise snub (I blame the BFCA for the worry) but it's probably just jitters since I love the film. Since there are so many "auteur" films expected to place I'm guessing The Town edges out 127 Hours, since there's less competition for those mainstream votes. That isn't a knock on The Town just a reflection that it's not really in the list because it's daring or edgy or acclaimed. It's hung on because it's a solid general audience entertainment that is also critically respected.

Best Director
The big question mark here is whether it'll be The Coen Bros or David O. Russell in the final shortlist. I'm guessing that Russell hangs on. That's partially because I think The Fighter generates such love from its fans and partially because I think there's bound to be another fluke year where the Globes, DGA and Oscar all line up (hasn't happened since 1977.) BUT if you ask me what I really want to predict it's Roman Polanski. The only thing preventing me from that "no guts no glory" leap is that I have more trouble imagining The Ghost Writer placing in Best Picture than I do Polanski shaking up best director. With 10 Picture nominees it's harder to imagine the director's branch going way out on a limb like they use to.

I'm guessing "No" on Gosling (sniffle)Best Actor and Supporting Actor
I've made a switch in Lead Actor. I've got to take a risk somewhere and I'm now predicting Javier Bardem will edge out Robert Duvall for the 5th spot. People who see that movie just don't shut up about his work and he's a well regarded actor who is maybe in some ways, the new Anthony Quinn (Spanish speaking masculine heartthrob that Oscar just can't get enough of). Or maybe that's just because they look vaguely similar to me. But then again, Bardem missed for The Sea Inside so...).  I'd love to see Ryan Gosling in the mix, as he's on my ballot, but I really doubt it will happen. And I fear that if he manages to squeak it would mean a surprise snub for Jesse Eisenberg who, regardless of the buzz and media attention, is quite young and who is playing a largely unlikeable character.

Best Actress and Supporting Actress
The huge dilemma here is Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. Whichever category she shows up in ... [I still firmly believe it'll be supporting because the only previous examples of "promotion" are when the actor in question is already famous or has no co-leads in their film and voters feel silly about claiming that the actress is supporting a Whale or some such]... she WILL pull votes in both categories. Which means less votes for other people which means all sorts of surprise pockets of love and vacuums of votes could factor in. Same goes to a much lesser extent with Lesley Manville. The happiest outcome Hailee-wise would be a snub in both categories. Because, whoever she kicks out in either category, including Manville is her superior. (I'm not trying to be mean. She's just not the equal of her competitors. Not yet at least. She'll have other chances as one assumes she'll be in Chloe Moretz style demand now.) If she places in lead I see it costing Nicole Kidman the nomination since Rabbit Hole barely got a second glance from anyone... not even for its excellent screenplay which should've been kind of an easy get I think.

The Actress races are SO tense. Can you bear it??? Well, can you?

That said, I wouldn't be too surprised if I'm majorly wrong on Best Supporting Actress. I've reinstated Jacki Weaver because fans of her work are so passionate (#1 votes) and because I think Barbara Hershey (who I think is more of a threat than people realize and BAFTA gave me faith that I wasn't entirely wrong) will be pulling more votes from Mila Kunis than from Weaver) though I fear she's the new Peter Sarsgaard Shattered Glass (i.e. the critical darling that shows up everywhere until the Oscar). The huge difference is that Weaver is in an excellent film. But the strange thing there is that it just hasn't won traction elsewhere. So like Nicole Kidman, the relative lack of interest in her film, which ought to have been a bigger deal, could spell doom. I'M SO NERVOUS.

SEE ALL THE PREDIX HERE and we'll see how it goes on Tuesday morning.

The Ghost Linker

Filmmaker Magazine a brief video interview with Miranda July (Me and You and Everyone We Know) on her new project about a couple adopting a cat. EEEEeeee. Adopting a cat sounds like an EPIC story for a movie*. I cannot wait to see this.
Movie|Line Oscar buzz for Martha Marcy May Marlene (2011) at Sundance. Hey, lots of Oscar hopefuls kick off there. Here's to next year!
In Contention Guy Lodge's dream Oscar ballot. Other than Oscar, I *so* prefer to read people's individual ballots than see group choices.
The Wrap Like Crazy a romantic drama starring Anton Yelchin and Felicity Jones sells big at Sundance. Hmmm. Could mean big things for both leads.
Inside TV What the hell is going on with Mad Men? I'm so nervous. Give us that fifth season. With Matthew Weiner.

Ghost Writer keeps showing up in European Awards . Could surprise Oscar noms await?

Finally as much as I lie to myself and pretend that each day has 57 hours in it, I need to face facts that there will never be enough time to do a whole post on the Asian Film Award Nominations or France's Cesar Nominations because they're happening during my own awards (which are running much later than usual -- it was building this damn website!) AND just a few days prior to Oscars. I love movie awards so much but I do so wish the calendars were spread out. Let it suffice to say for now that Of Gods and Men and The Ghost Writer did very well with the Cesars and South Korea's Poetry (which I've already raved about), Japan's Confessions (an Oscar finalist) and Thailand's Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (already snubbed by Oscar) did well with the Asian awards nominations.

*It sounds like that to me because I am a crazy cat lady.

Best Actors (Lead and Supporting), My Ballot

As is my annual perogative I went back and forth between lead and supporting designations on several of those "co-lead" roles until I tied myself in knots and could not come undone. I'm more strict about these things than most so just deal. Every year people give me a hard time about it. But for every clear cut case of category fraud (Hailee Steinfeld is a lead in True Grit. Duh!) there are areas so gray one can't make out blacks or whites (I'm still not sure what to make of Lesley Manville in Another Year) and one just has to call it like one sees it and be okay with how other people are calling it too. No biggie. So for what it's worth I consider the couplings of Firth & Rush (The King's Speech) and Wahlberg & Bale (The Fighter) to be power duets within films specifically about their relationship with one another - therefore leads just like Scarlett & Rhett in Gone With the Wind only without the sex and with more of a damn given.

Lead Actor
I regret to inform that I have not seen Javier Bardem's much lauded performance in Biutiful. I tried! (Screener didn't work. Didn't realize that til after one week qualifier had passed, etcetera) Do I feel bad about thus dissing him? Yes and No. I love Bardem but it's no secret that I disdain the "one week qualifier" Oscar tactic and part of me -- a small petty part but a part nonetheless -- wishes even the worthiest of performances and films would be ignored every year IF attempting this until the studios and/or the Academy put a kabosh on this absurd practice which is bad for moviegoers and bad for dramatic films in general, as it teaches audiences to shun them or not care a whit about them unless or until they are Oscar-stamped. That's no way to build or keep an audience for adult entertainment. After all, not every film can be Oscar nominated.

So for my best actor list I had to choose between a sweaty former boxer, a sweaty federal agent, a sweaty rock climber (what's going on here) and several other men who were sweating out really difficult situations like an illiterate inmate, an innovator beset by lawsuits, a king on the verge of war, a man who'd just lost a child and so on.

Supporting Actor
So many wonderful performances and I'm still debating a couple of also rans with myself. Self: "He was better." Also Self: "No, you're crazy. Him." But in the end I'm happy with the settled ballot which includes a chill sperm donor, a hardened criminal, two men with mysterious motives with their lead actress, and one man, Andrew Garfield who I would have nominated twice over if I could have. Subtract The Social Network from the 2010 calendar and he'd still be a Film Bitch Award nominee for Never Let Me Go... (a film I didn't much care for overall).

READ MY BALLOT

Who is on yours?

Frank Rich on True Grit & The Social Network

Illustration by Barry BlittThe invaluable Frank Rich has a great op-ed on the success of True Grit in the age of The Social Network. It's beautifully written and interesting in the context of both awards season heat and our current political and economic climate. If I have one gripe with it it seems to downplay the fact that TSN is quite successful financially. Just not as successful.

I won't spoil the expert finale of the piece which shifts to The Social Network but here's a part I liked about True Grit which he correctly identifies as both elegaic and escapist for left and right wing Americans.

More than the first “True Grit,” the new one emphasizes Mattie’s precocious, almost obsessive preoccupation with the law. She is forever citing law-book principles, invoking lawyers and affidavits, and threatening to go to court. “You must pay for everything in this world one way or another,” says Mattie. “There is nothing free except the grace of God.”

That kind of legal and moral cost-accounting seems as distant as a tintype now. The new “True Grit” lands in an America that’s still not recovered from a crash where many of the reckless perpetrators of economic mayhem deflected any accountability and merely moved on to the next bubble, gamble or ethically dubious backroom deal. When Americans think of the law these days, they often think of a system that can easily be gamed by the rich and the powerful, starting with those who pillaged Lehman Brothers, A.I.G. and Citigroup and left taxpayers, shareholders and pensioners in the dust. A virtuous soul like Mattie would be crushed in a contemporary gold rush even if (or especially if) she fought back with the kind of civil action so prized by the 19th-century Mattie.

The whole piece is well worth a read.