Anthony Hopkins' shocking win shouldn't have shocked anyone.

by Baby Clyde

Thank you all very much. I really did not expect this.

I watched the last 20 minutes of the 93rd Academy Awards with a sense of impending doom. The disastrous decision to cynically rearrange the final awards in the hope of ending the night on a contrived ‘high’ immediately struck me as problematic. Whilst back in the day Best Picture wasn’t always given out last, it’s been that way for nearly 50 years and changing the order this year was clearly done for one and only one reason. The emotional finale meant to honor Chadwick Boseman with a posthumous award was something the hapless producers couldn’t resist, and it infamously backfired. A slow moving, gold plated car crash ensued as Sir Anthony Hopkins was declared the winner. With no back up plan, no Zoom speeches allowed and no host to close the show the evening ground to an unceremonious halt. If only they’d asked me, the day could have been saved.

I’m not a great Oscar predictor. Every year I seem to get 17 or 18 right. Usually tripped up by the Shorts, even if I’ve watched them all --no, especially if I’ve watched them all! But this year I did manage to successfully predict both Lead acting races, despite them both supposedly being "shocks".  Best Actor was less clear, yes, but I put Hopkins in the #1 spot back in September and never moved him. I’ve been Oscar watching a VERY long time (When I started Glenn Close only had Supporting noms) and sometimes you just get a feeling about a particular race. For example, I never once thought Stallone was winning back in 2015 and I’m still puzzled when people insist Meryl’s third was a surprise as it was inevitable. I felt exactly that way this year and as the season went on (and on and on) there was plenty of evidence, I present six pieces, pointing in that direction...

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BAFTA Winners: Anthony Hopkins, Frances McDormand, and More...

by Nathaniel R

Richard E Grant accepts Best Actress on behalf of Frances McDormand

It's the last major stop before Oscar night. The BAFTAs were held over two days this weekend and the winners list is now in. It was a spread the wealth kind of year. Nomadland led with four awards including the top prize but The Father, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman, Soul, and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom each won two statues.

We notated whether or not we correctly predicted the wins below as well just for fun...

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BAFTA predictions? Why not!

by Nathaniel R

Rather famously the BAFTAs did a gigantic overhaul of their nomination process to insure gender parity and diversity in their nominations. Many of the individual category nominations were decided by tiny juries. But for the winners the whole voting body will vote. Given that the nominations themselves were impossible to foresee perhaps the winners will be too? So lets just try our hand at divining what might come to pass.

FILM

• The Father
• The Mauritanian
• Nomadland
• Promising Young Woman
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

WILL WIN: This is actually a tough call. BAFTA has disagreed with Oscar more than we commonly think for the top category...

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Showbiz History: Julia peaks, Channing rises, and Maddie swings from chandeliers

6 random things that happened on this day, March 17th, in Showbiz History. Happy Saint Patrick's Day!

1941 The National Gallery of Art opened in DC eighty years ago today. 

1991 The 44th annual BAFTA Awards honoring the films of 1990 are held. Italy's Cinema Paradiso (which we were just discussing) is a huge hit winning 5 awards and Martin Scorsese's Goodfellas emerges triumphant with the top prize (Dances with Wolves, which will beat it at the Oscars a week later, isn't up for the BAFTAs until the following year, but it loses then to the homegrown title The Commitments)...

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A surprising BAFTA nomination list

by Nathaniel R

Nomadland and Rocks lead the nominations at the BAFTA Film Awards this year with 7 nominations each. The Father, Mank, Minari, and Promising Young Woman were right on their heels with 6 nominations each (though Mank and Minari both missed key top categories). After years of criticism over BAFTA's lack of diversity they made 120 rule changes (!) and, coupled with a strong year for films from and starring ethnic minorities or women, two thirds of the acting nominations went to people of color and the majority of the directing nominations went to women.

We've outlined the complex changes they made around the Best Director category (which created quite a surprising result) but in general it's easiest to think of what BAFTA did as adding what amounts to Oscar's International Feature "Executive Committee" to the longlist process in multiple categories to keep an eye on diversity and fix any glaring ommissions before the final nominations vote.

Oscar voters turn in their nomination ballots tomorrow (if they haven't already) so this won't be influential per se but it's still interesting. Especially since the nominations are so very different than what the Oscars will end up being (due to different eligibility lists and now different rules, too)...

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