Which of the First-Time Nominees Will Return Soon to Oscar?

Some years ago now I did a study on how often actors win second nominations. I can't find the figures at the moment but I believe it was around 42%. Obviously it's not as many as we pretend each Oscar love-in season. Though it's arguably easier to win a second nomination than it is a first -- they're already considering you if you will -- that doesn't mean it's easy, if you get me. The Oscars are definitely a pyramid in shape. There's only one actor with 18 nominations and there are hundreds of thousands with 0. I don't mean to be a bummer, just to underline how special and rare the Oscar experience is even for celebrity actors. Lineups like Best Actress this time, which I believe has the highest average nomination count of all time in an acting shortlist, fool us into believing otherwise but the majority of first nominations are also last nominations. 

the first-timers this year that DIDN'T win: Chiwetel, Sally, Barkhad, Fassy, June*should we do a fashion post?

But let's stay optimistic!

Who among this year's first-time nominees do you think will be the first to be invited back? Explain your choice in the comments. I think I'm going with Sally Hawkins only because her work has been really solid for a long time and now that they've noticed her, perhaps a rush of even better roles will happen? It's not always easy to predict. I mean, who among us thought that Jonah Hill would be the first among the new men from the class of 2011 to do it? There's no wrong answer. At least not for another year or three. 

poll by twiigs.com

If you like this poll, there are more, you know. Vote on those, too!

Beauty Vs Beast: Death Becomes Them

JA from MNPP here, starting off a new week with a brand new round of Beauty Vs Beast! I hope everybody enjoyed the Oscars last night - there were highs (Lupita!) and there were lows (another year of ill-incorporated montages) but there is one thing we can all agree upon: seeing Goldie Hawn and Meryl Streep in the same room like that made us all wish we were watching Death Becomes Her instead.

I was really hoping they'd present together, or maybe Meryl would just randomly scream out "NOW, A WARNING?" while Goldie was on-stage, or maybe Jennifer Lawrence would tumble down the theater's stairs and break into pieces in an elaborate tribute to the nearly twenty-two year old film? ...Something. Anything! Isabella Rossellini could've been carried out onto stage by some muscle men, perhaps? Alas it wasn't to be, save my imagination.

Thankfully I can trot out my imagination here, then. I give you this week's competition...

poll by twiigs.com

As always go ahead and make your cases for and against Robert Zemeckis' forever-living nut-cases in the comments, and in one week's time we'll down the potion and crown our new eternal queen.

And speaking of, crowns and queens and golden things with icy-cold skin, we've got to name our winner from last week's Frozen poll! It was pretty much a blow-out - Princess Elsa had too much diva-draw and strut herself to an easy win against her less flashy sister. As Anne-Marie said in the comments:

My vote is entirely colored by how badly I felt for Anna when I went to Disneyland in January. Literally every Elsa doll in the park was gone, so there were just all of these abandoned Anna dolls all through the park and it just made me so sad for this fictional character. Always living in her sister's diva shadow."

And so she shall remain. Team Elsa for the win!

Beauty Vs Beast: Let It Be... On!!!

JA from MNPP here with this week's brightest bluest newest round of Beauty Vs. Beast for y'all to play. First things first let's look back at last week's competition, which took David O. Russell's film American Hustle and pitted man versus man and woman versus woman (or hair versus hair versus hair versus hair) in an ABSCAM-off for the ages. Things between Team Sydney (Amy Adams) and Team Rosalyn (Jennifer Lawrence) were close for a wee bit but Sydney asserted her dominace pretty early on, eventually running away with 67% of the votes for the win. But over between the fellas the face-off between Team Richie (Bradley Cooper) and Team Irving (Christian Bale) stayed suuuper close over the course of the week - ultimately Richie squeaked it out, literally, beating Irving by two votes, or just 0.0037% of the total. Team Cleavage takes it away!

And so on to this week's tail-end-of-winter pre-Oscar festivities. Disney's Frozen is probably going to walk away with the Best Animated Film Oscar this Sunday for its efforts at shattering the Disney Princess mold and freshly focusing its sights on the sisterly bond over the usual princely fixations. (Although let's be honest, that Kristoff fella is a strapping lad and it's a good thing somebody ends up with him in the end... someone other than his reindeer... although he is really close to that reindeer, isn't he?) Blood is thicker than water, and one assumes that frozen blood is similarly thicker than ice. But as Joan Fonatine and Olivia De Havilland taught us, sister-love can be tough... and also a whole lot of fun to project our own familial anxieties upon. It's a Sister Off!

poll by twiigs.com

As always take your arguments pro and con to the comments, and next Monday we'll crown the one true snow queen!

11 Days Til Oscar. Bette Midler & Original Song

Bright and early this morning they announced that Bette Midler will be performing at the Oscars for the first time. That's shocking to type since she's had so many great movie musical moments in her career and she's obviously been to the Oscars as a nominee or to present. But, alas, her material was generally not original* and thus unnominated in the one category that regularly prompts performances.

Though it seems highly likely that they'll have her as underscore songstress for the In Memoriam visuals (zzz. Love that segment but it's never about the singer so they're interchangeable... something you can't usually say for Bette Midler) It's more fun to fantasize about recreating one of her musical moments from a movie on the main stage. So... vote!

poll by twiigs.com

* A Shocking Memory
Yes, it's true. The classic "The Rose" from The Rose (1979), written by Amanda McBroom, was NOT nominated for Best Original Song even after winning the Golden Globe. It was not expressly written for the movie though it had never been recorded before that point -- the same tragic reasons for disqualifications as Moulin Rouge!'s "Come What May". That category has been fucking us over for decades - this year's controversy was the least of it, really. The ideal song line up for 1979, an unusually good year for the category, would have probably would have been some combination of the two lists since the Oscar winner "It Goes Like It Goes" from Norma Rae, unnominated at the Globes, is also lovely.

But when you remember that "The Rainbow Connection" was nominated at both awards shows and lost twice, the point becomes moot. Truth: that eternal classic deserved multiple Oscars. An Oscar for 1979 and then an Oscar for every random year thereafter that failed to produce a worthy nominee. As an encore, you know? 

What would you have voted for?

I hope you've been enjoying the Countdown to Oscar! We're having so much fun with it so please check out any episodes you missed. Remember this truth: Comments are fuel for more blogging. 

Previously
12 Days - A twelve-wide Best Picture field!!! What does 1934 tell us about "Oscar slots"? 
13 Days - Matthew McConaughey and 2000's Best Actress Race?
14 Days - All About Eve vs. Titanic. The two all time nomination leaders face off!
15 Days - Supporting Oscar Chart fun "how were they nominated?"
16 Days - Irene Sharaff's 16 nominations 
17 Days - Looking back at The English Patient, Sal Mineo... and 1917?
18 Days - Meryl Streep's 18th nomination. Like whoa
19 Days - Julianne Moore's awards history
20 Days - Flashback '93: Age of Innocence, Farewell My Concubine, The Piano
21 Days - What's your favorite Billy Wilder? 

Beauty Vs Beast: Oscar Hustle

JA from MNPP here with this week's edition of everybody's new favorite fun-time activity Beauty Vs. Beast, wherein we pit a movie's good and bad guys against each other in a death-match of public opinion. First things first let us congratulate the winner of last week's inaugural poll - Rebecca's diabolical Mrs. Danvers pretty much shoved The Second Mrs. de Winter right out the window at the starting line and never looked back. We do love our maleficently repressed domestics. Viva Team Danvers!

And so on to this week's face off. I don't know if you guys are aware of this, but the Academy Awards are coming up in less than two weeks. Did you know that? I know! It's nutso bonkers. So in the spirit of the season let's do some Oscar-themed showdowns til then. And what better place to start than with the cinematic ode to financial slash follicle excess which translated into similar nomination generosity - David O. Russell's American Hustle, which really when you come down to it is just a series of show-downs itself between actors being looney-tunes all up on each other. And with that spark of gladatorial excess let's make this week a two-fer, lads versus ladies style.

poll by twiigs.com

poll by twiigs.com

You've got one week to vote, and we'll be back with the winners and a brand new round next Monday! And please do make your cases  for these folks in the comments...