How I Did Prediction-Wise. How 'Bout You?
Tuesday, January 25, 2011 at 11:02AM I'm not much for stats but for what it's worth, here's how I did on my Oscar predictions.
74% (89/120) if you include all categories, including those very few others predict like the short features.
77% (81/105) if you drop the three shorts categories which very few people bother with, thus upping their predictive ratio ;). If you'd like to know how I stack up with other pundits, I'm hearing Kris Tapley edged me out with 84/105 but am I in second place this year? Does anyone know? 81 is a good score. Yay me!
88% (40/45) in "the big eight" director, picture, acting and screenplays
Best Categories: I went 100% in Animated Feature, both Actress categories and Lead Actor -- if I'd only seen Hawkes over Garfield, I would have had an historic 100% in all acting categories -- correctly assuming those Big Hollywood Players raving about Javier Bardem (Ben Affleck & Julia Roberts among them) would do the trick for him. Another category I'm really proud of is Animated Short, which is often difficult to guess and I went 4/5 after viewing clips from all the finalists.
Worst Categories: I totally biffed Makeup (1/3) which is, in my defense, year after year the most baffling category (though I think The Way Back is very deserving and I also nominated it in my own awards). But I'm much much more surprised to have done so poorly on the Sound Categories (3/5 in each). In my defense there this is a very unusual year: for once the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing nominations are not virtual mirror images of each other. In fact, I can't recall a year ever with less overlap. Only two films Inception and True Grit show up in both categories. Usually these categories are 4/5 overlaps. Frustrated that I didn't predict the Angelina actioner Salt since I nominated in my own awards and it was my "alternate" that I nearly went with but in the end I chickend out and just used the Sound guilds nominees, which turned out to be not at all what Oscar's sound branch was thinking ;)
Just Curious: Did anyone predict I AM LOVE for costumes? I'm so thrilled that happened for Antonella Cannarozzi.
Very deserving if I do say so myself.
What are you most proud of from your predictions? Where did you fail most spectacularly?
all Oscar race posts
complete list of nominations
Costume Design, Oscars (10), Punditry, Sound
Reader Comments (33)
I'm glad I went for Hailee in supporting. No one seemed to really give a damn this year that she was actually a lead haha. And Michelle Williams was something I only half-expected but wrote down. I'm also happy with choosing 127 Hours for Best Picture! Your predictions were, of course, stellar.
I predicted"I Am Love"'s costuming nod. I also predicted a Ruffalo and Kidman snub, so there you go.
Oh well done! You edged me out by one... I had 80 sans short categories. My biggest triumphs - calling The Tempest for Costume Design, John Hawkes for Supporting Actor, and Salt for Sound Mixing... biggest bummers - calling The Town in Best Picture and forgetting to jump on the Julia/Nathaniel bandwagon for Javier Bardem.
by the way, Nat, when do you plan to announce the results from the April 2010 Best Actress predictions?
I had:
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone*
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole*
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine*
Julianne Moore - The Kids Are Alright
Imelda Staunton - Another Year
so... I'm curious where I stand :)
Cheers
These were mine: http://www.rinkworks.com/awards/results.cgi?file_tag=nom2010&name=liscobeck
Second place at Rinkworks! Woot!
Here's the thing with I Am Love, Black Swan was probably not nominated because of the fact that all the ballet costumes and Nina's white evening gown were designed by the fashion label Rodarte. In I Am Love all of Tilda's clothes were designed by the fashion label Jil Sander and Fendi was used for some of the other characters. (Fendi was also a producer of the film) So, it seems a bit unfair that the costume designer gets the nomination and the desginers do not, since the film was likely nominated because of Tilda's costumes?!?
Through some miracle, I got 83/105 (not counting the shorts, of course).
But I can't even be happy about it because of the Nolan and Garfield snubs. Also, I absolutely refuse to acknowledge Hailee Steinfeld as a supporting actress.
of the big eight, i got Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay 100% correct. i had a feeling the preferential balloting/ ardent fanbases for "Winter's Bone" and "127 Hours" would edge out "The Town".
i missed "127 Hours" in screenplay but i got "Dogtooth" in foreign film (best nomination of the morning!)
I got 85/105 for everything but short, and 38/45 for major. The Town instead of 127 Hours, Nolan instead of Coens, Duvall instead of Bardem, Moore instead of Williams, Garfield instead of Renner, and so on. Duh.
I just did Picture, Director, and the acting categories: I got 30/35.
I had 85 without the shorts, 93 with them, surprisingly. But my friend beat me by one point. ARGH! Should have gone with my gut and picked "Winter's Bone" rather than "The Town." (Did anyone see the AwardsDaily and Steve Ponds' articles on how The Town had no #1 support? Very interesting).
Favorite nominations: Dogtooth in Foreign Language Film (Sight unseen... I'm so excited to be watching it tonight now that it's on Netflix!).
Saddest Omission: Ryan Gosling in Actor. Major bummer.
I did 39/45 in the Big Eight. I correctly predicted the ten BP nominees,John Hawkes, and the Coens for Directing, but put Hailee in supporting, which messed up my Actress and Supporting Actress predictions. Also, I wasn't as ballsy as you and went for Duvall instead of Bardem.
My biggest suprise was the failure of Waiting for Superman to be nominated as best documentary. I was happy about this since I disliked the film and thought it was overrated. However, it was critically acclaimed, a box office success, and received many awards, so I sort of assumed it would at least be nominated.
I am love deserves the costume nod just for marisa berenson's shades.
mark -- yes! and for every color choice on Tilda.
Did alright. 82% for the big eye. Worst was Adapted Screenplay, and I was right on the money for Best Actress.
Still can't believe they didn't go for Nolan or Garfield. Ai-yi-yi
Picture: 9/10. I put The Town in over 127 Hours for some reason.
Director: 4/5. Had Nolan in and the Coens as alternates
Actor: 4/5. Had Gosling getting in instead of Bardem
Actress: 5/5. Awwww yeah.
Sup. Actor: Garfield instead of Ruffalo.
Sup. Actress: 5/5.
O. Screenplay: 4/5.
A. Screenplay: 5/5
I picked I Am Love and The Tempest for costumes. I picked Eyesore, too, but only because my sewing friend is still talking about the strength of those designs. The other two I got wrong.
I'm also patting myself on the back for picking Hereafter in Visual Effects. I knew if nothing else, the Academy would go for the effects in that film.
Is there any actress this year or any other year better dressed than tilda s,she looks great without clothes too.
I somehow managed a banner year prediction-wise, with 86/105 in everything but the shorts, and 40/45 in the big eight. Got 5/5 in Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Score, and 3/3 in Animated Film. Glad I stuck to my guns with Exit Through the Gift Shop and Dogtooth.
But many personal favorites (Christopher Nolan, Mila Kunis, Andrew Garfield, The Town--boy, did I dislike Winter's Bone, and even more now) were snubbed, and I really don't care for The King's Speech, so it's been a very bittersweet morning for me.
It's nice to see I AM LOVE receive something, but it's a bit of a slap in the face, too, just like BRIGHT STAR last year in this same category.
I had 88/120.
Film:
Blue Valentine
Should have been: 127 Hours
Correct score: 9/10
Director:
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Should have been: Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Correct score: 4/5
Actor:
Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Should have been: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Correct score: 4/5
Actress:
None.
Correct score: 5/5
Supporting Actor:
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Should have been: Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Correct score: 4/5
Supporting Actress:
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Should have been: Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Correct score: 4/5
Original Screenplay:
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
Should have been: Another Year & The Fighter
Correct score: 3/5
Adapted Screenplay:
The Ghost Writer
Should have been: 127 Hours
Correct score: 4/5
Foreign Language Film:
Life Above All (South Africa)
Should have been: Outside the Law (Algeria)
Correct score: 4/5
Costume Design:
Black Swan
Should have been: I Am Love
Correct score: 4/5
Cinematography
127 Hours
Shutter Island
Should have been: The King's Speech & The Social Network
Correct score: 3/5
Art Direction:
Shutter Island
Should have been: Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallow part I
Correct score: 4/5
Editing:
Inception
Should have been: 127 Hours
Correct score: 4/5
Visual Effects:
Tron Legacy
Should have been: Hereafter
Correct score: 4/5
Make-Up:
Alice in Wonderland
The Fighter
Should have been: Barney's Version & The Wolfman
Correct score: 1/3
Score:
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows part I
Never Let Me Go
Should have been: How to Train your Dragon & 127 Hours
Correct score: 3/5
Song:
Burlesque - You Haven't seen the Last of me yet
Should have been: None, there were only four nominees.
Correct score: 4/4
Sound Mixing
Black Swan
Tron Legacy
Should have been: The King's Speech & Salt
Correct score: 3/5
Sound Editing
Black Swan
Salt
Should have been: Toy Story 3 & Unstoppable
Correct score: 3/5
Animated Feature:
Tangled
Should have been: The Illusionist
Correct score: 2/3
Animated Shorts:
Coyote Falls
The Silence Beneath The Bark
Should have been: The Lost Thing & Madagascar, a Journey Diary
Correct score: 3/5
Documentary Feature:
Waiting for Superman
Should have been: Wasteland
Correct score: 4/5
Documentary Short:
Born Sweet
Living for 32
Should have been: Strangers No More & Warriors of Quigang
Correct score: 3/5
Live Action Short:
Ana's Playground
Little Children Big Word
The Six dollar Fifty Man
Should have been: The Confession, God of Love & Na Wewe
Correct score: 2/5
Taylor & Ralph -- WOW. You bested the professional pundits.
In all categories, I pulled a 91/120. Not bad. I got four in each acting category (Manville, Kunis, Garfield and Gosling tripped me up), and I completely nailed Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and Art Direction (Harry Potter was a lucky guess). For the most part, I only missed one nominee in each category.
wow all of you are better than the actual pundits.
I got the same as you did without shorts. I left out The Town but scored poorly with directors (still pissed). I got Michelle Williams but I also had Ryan Gosling, so 4/5 in both categories. I had 100% in Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature and Original Score. Also got 4/5 with non-English films, I'm kinda proud of that. Only 1/3 in Makeup but that happens to me everytime.
I didn't do too badly. 83/105. 41/45 in the big categories. I'm very proud of my perfect Actress slates. But I'm even more proud of the Academy. Surprisingly original. I write a little more on blog here
I'm really just most proud of How to Train Your Dragon for score!!!!! Over "Eyesore in Wonderland!" HURRAH!
And I'm most upset with Inception missing out on editing! Really?!?!?!? It was my early prediction to win!
I was 100% in the Best Picture category (I surprised myself there a little) but missed one or two in every other category. I'm happy Alexandre Desplat got nominated again. I think I'm a bit more worried about Colin Firths chances now that Javier Bardem is nominated (that was quite a surprise to me). But the most important news - JACKI WEAVER GOT THE NOMINATION!
I only did the big 8, because i'm a wimp, but I did pretty average.
Picture 10/10 Was pretty clear to me that The Town wasn't getting in here. I liked it, but I doubt it was getting many #1 votes
Director 3/5 Was completely thrown by the ridiculous Nolan snub. I had predicted a Russell snub, but for Granik.
Actress 4/5 My No Guts No Glory call of Noomi Rapace didn' come through, but Williams was my Alternate.
Actor 3/5 Perhaps I was way too daring prediction both Gosling AND Wahlberg. But then I didn't realise that Oscar had such a hard-on for True Grit.
Supp Actress 5/5 I was calling Mila Kunis since I saw the trailer months ago, and only changed my mind a the day before. I was just seeing Weaver absoultely everywhere, she had a lot of love. Am most dissapointed though, I was rooting Kunis.
Supp Actor 4/5 While I did call Hawkes (so deserving), I had precicted him in place of Renner.
O.G Screenplay 4/5 Didn't see Another Year coming, had Black Swan in there but not really suprised by the miss, its not really what makes the movie.
Adapted screenplay 5/5 Pretty clear catagory, though I guess there was room for a suprise
All Up 38/ 45 not too bad, failed pretty hard on Actor and director though. My general, unnoficial predictions for the Tech catagories were pretty bad though, however I did get 5/5 in Foreign, although it was based on a hunch, rather than any knowledge of previous results in the catagory. My big Call of the night was Dogtooth. I figured if they liked it enough to make the longlist, it has a surefire shot to make the final cut. Don't have the balls to predict it for the win yet though.
Wow! I got 40/45 and 81/105 too. With 10/10 in BP.
I just did picture, directing and acting and I got 32 out 35. I missed the Coen bros, Bardem and Hawkes, but i did have all three of them in 6th place in their respective categories. Happy with that for my first year predicting the oscar race.
I am Italian and i am happy to see the very good job for the custumes designee in I am Love but i am angry to see that italians movie people choose always the wrong film (even if La Prima cosa bella is a very very good movie).
If they would have chosen I am love to represent italy i am quite sure it will be nominated.
What do you think?
rick -- yes, i'm pretty sure it would have made the final five with Oscar. i mean it even has a higher Oscar nom count than GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO :)