Naked Gold Man... Now With Golden Globes
Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 9:01PM 
Late last week I went out for a drinks with an old friend of mine who introduced me to a friend of his I'd never met. They had just seen Jesse Eisenberg's new play and were arguing about how much to tell me about ("spoiler alerts!" and all) though they both highly recommend it.
Once we sat down for drinks and dinner, the topic turned to Oscar. You know I felt immediate kinship when this new insta-friend told me a hilarious story of his teenage self absolutely freaking out on the night of March 29th, 1989 when Jodie Foster's name was read out and his beloved Glenn Close was shunned again. Inconsolable he was!
Let's just say his breakdown was less composed than the Merquise de Merteuil's when she met her ignoble end in Dangerous Liaisons.
After the story, he requested an article on Golden Globe predictions. "You haven't written about that," he says. He's right. So, let's ditch the sword and pick up the globes.
Let's focus on Comedy/Musical ...AFTER THE JUMP. I don't know about you but the #1 reason we love the Globes is that it shines a bright light on movies and performances that might otherwise struggle for awards season traction, since even when the Globes idea of Comedy is actually Slightly Funny Drama, they're still usually "lighter" as it were.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL
Golden Globe Predictions
- Bridesmaids
- The Artist
- Midnight in Paris
- My Week With Marilyn
- Young Adult
or maybe? Carnage, Crazy Stupid Love, 50/50 or The Muppets
who knows? Horrible Bosses, The Hangover Part II,
Up until very recently you'd be forgiven for assuming that this is where Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris would get its due. After all Vicky Cristina Barcelona took a surprise win in the category just 3 years ago and this movie is famously his most popular in ages. Now it seems inevitably to be the one sure contest where The Artist will be prevail. It's even got dancing so it can pretend to be a musical as well as a comedy. As for Bridesmaids, its nomination here will get people talking about "can it show up in Best Picture?" and the answer is "of course not!" but the conversation will happen anyway. Such is the power of the Globes.
The trickiest thing about this category is trying to suss out where the borderline films will be placed. Despite the downer that is Marilyn's psyche, My Week With Marilyn spends a lot of time on the set of "the lightest of comedies" and it also has musical numbers so I'm guessing Comedy/Musical. I'm assuming that The Descendants is a drama, despite the numerous funny bits.
How much will this affect the Oscars? A reasonable amount. It will further cement future Best Picture Oscar nominations for the two French-lite movies (The Artist, Midnight in Paris) and maybe give an intangible boost to Bridesmaid's Original Screenplay chances.
Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
Golden Globe Predictions
- Jean Dujardin, The Artist
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
- Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
- Taylor Lautner, Abduction *JOKE! Just wanted to see if you were paying attention*
- Jason Segal, The Muppets
- Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
or maybe? although now that I'm looking at this, won't they want to make room for Eddie Murphy (Tower Heist) since he's Oscar hosting? Johnny Depp in Rum Diary or Pirates of the Caribbean or both (though that would surprise me. I think they might be a bitsy bit embarrassed about last year), Ben Stiller in Tower Heist, Steve Carell in Crazy Stupid Love. and Paul Rudd in Our Idiot Brother
who knows? Tom Hanks in Larry Crowne, Chris Hemsworth in Thor (comedy?) Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo (comedy?), Bradley Cooper in The Hangover Part II, Colin Farrell in Fright Night (what? they like him. He was good in it, you know), Adam Sandler in Jack and Jill, (god help us all),
Whaddya know? It's a super duper competitive category after all. I could easily see a lineup where I only get like two guesses right.
Will this affect the Oscars? Doubtful. Though a nomination here for JGL would go a long way towards winning him "award worthy" momentum for future attempts at awards season glory. You have to break the ice at some point.
Drama Predictions as an aside: CLOONEY, DICAPRIO, GOSLING, OLDMAN, and PITT
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Golden Globe Predictions
- Berenice Bejo, The Artist
- Jodie Foster, Carnage
- Charlize Theron, Young Adult
- Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
- Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
or maybe? Amy Adams in The Muppets? Kate Winslet in Carnage? Cameron Diaz in Bad Teacher?
who knows? Emma Stone in Crazy Stupid Love? Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses or Just Go With It? Anna Faris in What's Your Number?, or SJP in I Don't Know How She Does It.
Will this affect the Oscars: It's quite likely. Especially if Michelle William is considered "comedy/musical"... a win here could go along way in boosting her Oscar profile for a biopic role once the ballots are out. Bejo seems likely to be demoted to "supporting actress" at the Oscars but if there's anywhere where she'll compete as a lead it's at The Globes.
Drama Predictions as an aside: CLOSE, DAVIS, DUNST, OLSEN, STREEP
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Golden Globe Predictions
- Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
- Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
- Carey Mulligan, Shame
- Octavia Spencer, The Help
- Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
or maybe? virtually anyone, but I wanted to notate this because I think this is where Melissa McCarthy rises again (though I don't actually believe that role is going to become Oscar nominated). But this will likely fool people into believing it as much as they did after the Emmy win.
I am 100% sure I've forgotten something since we don't spend as much time tracking Comedies as we do dramas. And the Globe voting body is notorious for completely bizarre decisions that no one could have predicted (The Tourist anyone?)
ANSWER ME THESE QUESTIONS THREE?
• What do you think of these predictions... where am I right on or totally off my face?
• What will this year's The Tourist be?
• Don't you wish they'd extend the split to the supporting acting categories, too?
OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATES
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPP ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS | FOREIGN FILM | SCREENPLAY | VISUAL CATEGORIES | AURAL CATEGORIES
Reader Comments (44)
didn't joseph gordon-levitt break the awards season ice at the globes last year with 500 days of summer?
While it's likely Vanessa Redgrave will be overlooked by the GG's for 'Coriolanus' (unless she's that good and she gets nominated for every pre-cursor), I think she's pretty locked in for an Oscar nom. A BAFTA and SAG nom seem definite and because of how respected she is, along with the raved performance and buzz, she could be a strong contender come Oscar night.
I'd guess they'd go for Depp in Rum Diary rather than Segal in Muppets (the trailer actually looks quite entertaining), and Marion Cotillard in Supporting for Midnight in Paris will be too tempting for them to pass up.
If The Rum Diary, J Edgar, or The Iron Lady turn out really bad, I could see any of them being this year's Tourist. They all have a bit of a stench about them, but look great on paper (aka you dont need to see it to want to vote for it) and have the kind of big movie stars the Globes so love to attend. I could even see The Iron Lady pulling a "wait, that's a comedy?!?" on nomination day.
I think your predictions are fairly accurate.
I'd say CAMERON DIAZ is assured in Best Actress, I'd switch it with Berenice Bejo who I just don't see appearing in the Globes' nominees.
She looks like one of those nominees you'll only see at the Oscars. Jean Dujardin, on the other hand, I think he's safe. The buzz is all about him.
For Best Actor, no way they're passing on Johnny Depp for 'The Rum Diary', no matter how bad it is (remember he got a double nomination last year AND he has 9 (!) nominations in their Comedy/Musical category) and I also believe Robert Downey Jr. will get a second nom for 'Sherlock Holmes' (he won two years ago, remember?). So... I'd say Segel and Gordon-Levitt are out. I'd also watch out for Tom Hanks and I don't think even Gosling is safe (due to the Emmy backlash against Carell, couldn't they easily give him a nomination for CSL instead of Gosling as a reward for moving away from TV and doing movies with good BO?).
And I'd fancy Segel's chances more for 'Bad Teacher' btw.
And also... Ewan McGregor for 'Beginners'? Shouldn't that be a possibility too? That movie is neither a drama nor a comedy, could be pushed either side.
Best Actor/Drama I think it's spot on. And I have a feeling this is the line-up that will transfer to the Oscars, give or take Oldman for Dujardin.
Best Actress/Drama: I don't think Dunst will be the fifth pick; I'd be more willing to bet on Keira. She did receive a nomination for 'Atonement' in 2007 after all.
Supporting Actress: I say you're right, Melissa McCarthy might be nominated. But the remaining line-up... Uh, this category is so messy. SO. MUCH. FUN. I think you're underestimating Marion Cotillard's chances here. 'Midnight in Paris' may have a stronger showing than what you're antecipating.
Supporting Actor: I'd say... Brooks / Plummer / Brannagh / Pitt / people are betting on Von Sydow but I guess the Academy will want to welcome Hanks (and so will the Globes) again; if not, double nom for Clooney here.
Do you think that if Shame gets a GG nod it would be for Mulligan? I'm not saying you're wrong, after all your Drama Actor picks seem really possible. I'd like to think that Carnage could get in instead of My Week with Marilyn but I doubt it.
And regarding your questions, It hink your predictions are pretty strong, it's fun predicting the Globes. And I wouldn't like it if they split the Supporting Actor/Actress nominations. Strange names get in without the division (Travolta for Hairspray). I don't know what could be this year's The Tourist, possibly The Rum Diaries but I'm fearing it could be The Hangover 2. Ugh
I agree with others that Johnny Depp is practically a slam dunk here. I know you're against declaring locks, but I think "The Rum Diary" would have to be truly, unspeakably heinous (like worse than "The Tourist") for it not to happen.
I also think that Cameron Diaz will get in. This particular organization is a fan of hers, and it seems like a role that they'll go for, like Billy Bob in "Bad Santa."
I think these predictions are really good, but could Albert Nobbs be a comedy and The Artist a drama? I think both could easily fit in either category. Is The Artist could easily campaign as a comedy, but they'll have to promote the hell out of that dog. On that note, could Beginners show up in in the Best Pic category?
(But The Muppets?)
Also, I'd love the Globes if they nominated Kim Cattrall in 'Meet Monica Valour'... if only the best performances were actually nominated...
As for The Tourist of the group... New Year's Eve? Garry Marshall will have to schmooze the HFPA big time, but it means Michelle Pfeiffer!
Berenice Bejo in Best Actress and not Supporting Actress? Will this be an instance of category confusion?
No supporting actor?
The not splitting the supporting categories torments me...even more so with the television categories. Those fields are so deep in both comedy and drama, even without tossing in the miniseries/tv movie people. It's ridiculous.
I'd be surprised if Cameron Diaz wasn't nominated for "Bad Teacher". It's a big broad comedic hit and they like those, plus Diaz gets nominated for rubbish like "Gangs of New York"? Yeah.
The Globes have cracked down on misleading musical/comedy categorisation so "My Week with Marilyn" may have a harder time convincing them.
I definitely think you're right about Gosling's double dip. I think you're wrong about Vanessa Redgrave. If Jacki Weaver can get a Globe nomination then so can a legendary Brit.
I love Gosling as much as anyone, but if he gets nominated in comedy for Crazy Stupid Love and Carrell doesn't, I'm gonna shoot someone.
Just read your latest predicts for Oscar. Noticed that you have Fassbender and Harrelson over the likes of Oldman, Shannon and Gosling. After watching shame is it possible for the Academy to nominate a role like Brandon? Or is it wishful thinking from the festival buzz. I see no evidence of them changing their ways and nominate anything from the film (even Carey Mulligan who was also brilliant).
I saw W.E. at TIFF and Andrea Riseborough should be nominated for supporting at the Globes and Oscars.....! SHE WAS AMAZING....hope she doesn't get overlooked. If you've seen you would agree.
You forgot about Win Win and Paul Giamatti's performance (worth a Golden Globe's nomination too); and maybe Mia Wasikowska for Jane Eyre.
I'm not sure how The Artist, The Descendant, Young Adult end up with. But I think 50/50 will categorize as Comedy.
There been many confusions about Comedy/ Musical category in the past. For me, Up in the Air is comedy drama; and films like In Bruges or Fargo are more crime genre than Black Comedy.
Hell, This year have been a very strong year for comedy, as oppose to last year. Anyway, after last year, I begin to lost faith in Golden Globe Comedy.
My Best Comedy prediction are:
-The Descendant
-Young Adult
-50/50
-Midnight in Paris
-Bridesmaids
or maybe: The Artist (if it classified), Win Win, We Bought a Zoo.
i'm surprised there's any doubt from anyone that The Artist willl go in comedy. It's very very funny and even once it gets serious in its second half it still has big laughs. I'd be really surprised if it went Drama (but given what's happened before with the divisions... i suppose anything is possible)
Do we think "The Help" will be pushed to comedy so it/Davis can win? Not that it will definitely lose in drama.
For whatever reason, I see Marilyn going drama. Then again, you've seen the film, and I haven't, so my guessing on that one is blind. Other than that, I can see most everything in your predictions happening except for Jason Segel getting in for The Muppets.
As for "this year's Tourist," I can totally see Larry Crowne getting that spot, especially if more comedies once thought to be major awards contenders - like Carnage, for instance - lose their steam. The HFPA loves Tom Hanks, who's also got Extremely Loud and Incredibly Clsoe, and Julia Roberts, who picked up that random nomination for Duplicity back in 2009.
As for extending the genre split for supporting, I wholeheartedly agree.
why is everyone doubting The Muppets. It's a musical... and that goes a long way at the Golden Globes.
nic -- it's wishful thinking to some degree. but it's also changing realities (they have gotten a *tiny* bit braver recently with critical darlings that would have been considered off-putting in earlier oscar years or at least non-1970s years .... like No Country For Old Men, The Departed, There Will Be Blood....
but it's also that Fox Searchlight is pushing it hard and if it gets some early critical wins or important precursors it is theoretically possible that both Mulligan and Fassbender will be in. I've never felt that OLDMAN was a sure thing either. In the running sure. but sure thing? No.
I think Rooney Mara gets in Drama for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo over Kirsten Dunst. And I think Midnight in Paris will show up way more than anyone is expecting. Picture (Musical/Comedy), Director, maybe Best Actor in a Comedy for Owen Wilson, definitely Screenplay, and the Globes particularly like Marion Cotillard so I see her getting in either supporting actress or Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy. Also, swap out Janet McTeer for Vanessa Redgrave.
I think Carnage would be nominated for Picture much sooner than My Week With Marilyn.
Do the HPFAs have any shame? I don't mean that rhetorically. I think after The Tourist they may cool it with the party-time-give-away nominees at least for a year. Truly heinous noms like that always sneak in when you least expect them, and the HFPA is capable of choosing surprising, good comedy noms -- just look at 2008.
Fair enough Nat. If Fassy gets nominated it would be a big breakthrough for the academy. I am afraid that's the exact type of gutsy role and performance that the majority of voters will turn their heads away from (a male sex addict isn't exactly their cup of tea). But I will be glad to be proven wrong comes nomination morning and to hear his and Carey's name being called.
Maybe it's the calm before the stormThis BA category seems to be thinning though. I do have the feeling that Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy may finally be Oldman's Oscar vehicle, for a nomination at least. They love it when a character actor shine in a lead role like this.
I can also see Harrelson taking a veteran spot, since it's such a good follow up to the Messenger, and where he's as good and more clothed than say Fassy's Brandon. Also do you think Gosling could be campaigned as supporting in Ides? Even though he's clearly lead and will be up against 3 other actors in supporting. I was thinking of the category fraud in the Departed, Collateral or Jesse James, where they could be called an ensemble piece. An interesting year for Best Actor for a change.
I heard that the Help is going comedy at the Globes? Really?
and I think Melissa McCarthy can buck the trend and get oscar-nominated. And I wasn't "fooled" into believing anything post-Emmys. I thought it ever since Bridesmaids came out. I know the history of comedy bias at the Oscars before anyone points it out.
I doubt the HFPA will go back to early 2011...but I actually think Natalie Portman, and, brace yourself, Ashton Kutcher are worthy of comedy noms for No Strings Attached...I admit I judged this film sight unseen...then I saw it and I was pleasantly surprised, so much so that I actually watched it twice (I never do that)...and it has an incredible ensemble to boot.
DuJardin and Owen Wilson are locks...definitely Carrell over Gosling for CSL.
Aren't the Globes the Hollywood FOREIGN Press? So they often lean towards European and non-American choices? (As well as the big US celebrities of course). So would Juliette Binoche in Certified Copy be considered in the Comedy category? Or Melanie Laurent in Beginners? And for drama, maybe Michelle Yeoh in The Lady?
Riseborough's chances with the globes are higher than witn the Academy; after all HFPA through the years have been quite kind with Madonna
nic - u know i hadn't even considered that but that would certainly make it even more interesting (the category stuff for IDES OF MARCH)... i think the thing that would kill that is that there is no second lead. DiCaprio and Damon as co-leads made that whole "they're both supporting" more plausible if still laughable.
adri -- people bring this up every year and i'll admit i've never run the numbers but i haven't really noticed any bias towards honoring foreigners beyond just the natural inclusiveness of having more nominees given the double lead categories. I think they're enchanted with big stars period but i honestly doubt they care whether they're american or european.
ned -- i really hope that's not true. The Help as a comedy. If true it's a serious miscalculation on the part of the campaigning studio. Because, like calling Viola Davis "supporting" as some people wanted it shines a less than flattering light on the movie's messaging. The detractors will do it enough damage without the film not taking itself seriously either ;)
Good point Nat. I never though to the co-lead rule when it comes to category fraud. For some reason, I think he has an outside shot for Best Actor anyway, for playing the more memorable, more "macho" character in Drive than his usual sensitive roles. I think he missed out last year partly due to the fact that his character in Blue Valentine was, dare i say, a bit too feminine for the academy taste.
OF COURSE "The Help" will be in the comedy categories. Box office + "lighter take on heavy material" + chance to have two lead nominations (Stone & Davis)?! How could they not? Fits the branding so far and why they'll be explaining their "need" to be included in Best Picture with AMPAS: a crowd-pleaser + a box office heavyweight + comedy.
PS - SPOILER? (Any film with that much focus on a certain ingredient in pie is definitely a comedy in my book.)
I'm not so sure about Melissa McCarthy. Steve Carrell and Katherine Heigl were not nominated when they did The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up.
'The Tourist' was also nominated because it was a December release and if there's one thing the HFPA love as much as a Weinstein film, it's a new release they can promote. So I'd suspect 'We Bought a Zoo' could be a possibility. I agree Depp for 'The Rum Diary' will also be on the list and I wonder if they will throw a bone to Angelina Jolie's 'Land of Blood and Honey', even if critics and other award groups don't (it may well be brilliant and deserve it).
Another question might be who gets a double nomination this year? Gosling in Ides (Drama) and Crazy, Stupid, Love (Comedy)?
I'm hoping Gosling and Levitt get the awards attention at the Globes that the Oscars won't give them.
Mirko, did you see W.E. Don't you think she deserves an Oscar nomination for Supporting? I've seen Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs, Berenice Bejo in The Artist and Octavia Spencer
in The Help and I think Andrea Riseborough deserves to be with them. Also, Abel Korzeniowski did the score in this film, he also did the score for A Single Man, and it was breathtaking.....I think he will be nominated (and should be) for Best Original Score....if you haven't seen W.E. go see it, don't listen to the bad reviews. Have you seen it Nathaniel?
"if you haven't seen W.E. go see it, don't listen to the bad reviews."
I haven't see it but I will do as soon as I could...and I won't listen the bad reviews, even 'cause my opinion is that they are following THE HATING ROAD, even if maybe the movie isn't flawless
Not to be all negative but in what way, shape, or form is 'Rango' a huge hit?
Also, the fact that a movie as wonderful as Rio gets placed at 10th (TENTH!!!) spot on your list is just ghastly.
I would have been fine with Viola Davis going supporting. It's not so clear cut and dry as people say. I personally saw Emma Stone as the lead. And yes, this placement would have been a much clearer path to Davis winning an Oscar.
I can see "The Help" going comedy at the Globes too. Give the film some easy wins and set up whatever drama actress will go up against Davis for the Oscar (Close? Streep? Williams? Mara? Olsen?)
Maxim -- Um RANGO is in the top 20 of the year... ? not sure how its "hit" status is in dispute. but i was surprised to discover just when you typed this that RIO is an even bigger hit. So you're right that maybe i should rethink. I'll admit that the animated feature category is far from my strong suit. I don't always understand what they're looking for and i think it's a ghastly category itself... if Best Picture was voted on the way that category there would be like 70 nominees each year.
Gerry --- oh i get tthat it's not a total clear cut designation... i just think calling her supporting emphasizes everything the detractors say about the movie so it would be a really bad move on the campaign's part to call her that... because it immediately diminishes the experience of the movie (and even of Viola's work) and makes it yet another GUILTY WHITE PEOPLE EXPERIENCE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVIE.
My head is still aching from the Best "Comedies" list last year. Alice in Wonderland, The Tourist, The Kids Are All Right, Burlesque and Red. Like what the hell?!? Hopefully it return to being a true list of the year's comedies (2002, 2003).
But then, the summer alone of 2011 was overflowing with hit raunchy comedies: Bridesmaids, The Hangover II, Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses and Friends with Benefits. I think most of these films will get some form of love from the HFPA.
Larry Crowne will be this year's Tourist. Expect at least three nominations for the picture and the leads. It will be the Charlie Wilson's War incarnate. Also, is MWWM a comedy? Is The Artist a Musical just because it's a silent film?
Picture
Bridesmaids
Crazy Stupid Love
Horrible Bosses
Larry Crowne
Midnight in Paris *win
Actor
Carell
Gosling
Hanks
Timberlake
Wilson *win
*alt Cooper or Gordon-Levitt
Actress
Diaz
Kunis
Roberts
Theron
Wiig *win?
*alt Aniston (who was actually really good in the film)
How did I never see this post???
Anyway, I love that you included Dunst...I think it's definitely possible, they nominated her way back when for Interview with a Vampire.
I agree that Gordon-Levitt will get in for 50/50. I could see a Gosling double dip happen, or Carrell getting the comedy/musical nomination.
I hope Melissa McCarthy gets the nomination!
I think overall these are pretty good...I'm sure a few will change, but I can see these being legitimate.
Could Kunis get in comedy/musical from Friends With Benefits?
P.S. I echo the statement that Cameron Diaz will get in.