There is No Frontrunner For Best Actor
Monday, September 23, 2013 at 9:57PM By and large pundits seem to have narrowed down the Best Actress category, sadly before all the films have even premiered, to about 6 or 7 women... but many of them won't be able to win for their roles (when you've already won it's more difficult to build a "more" case - this ain't the Emmys) so the fight for the actual statue will probably not be bloody at all. Here you go, Cate! The supporting categories (both male and female) are still hugely competitive as far as nominations go but again the winning could well be set in stone as soon as the nominations are facts rather than assumptions.
Will Oscar feel sentimental about Dern or Redford?
But Best Actor just can't be narrowed down. Not yet at least. [more...]
There are too many contenders unwilling to budge, too many for whom you could build a solid argument. I'd argue that we don't even have a frontrunner yet. Which is the way it should be before the movies have all premiered though not often the way that it is. My argument is this: squint your eyes and imagine scenarios and narratives that might play out over the next 5 months and who might conceivably hold a statue in their hands in March 2014. It's still possible to imagine six different men as winners. And six is greater than five which means the fight for nominations could be brutal.
And this doesn't even account for possibilities like Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Michael B Jordan in Fruitvale, Joaquin Phoenix in Her, or Christian Bale in American Hustle all of whom strike me as still being in the hunt for shortlisting if the campaigns are smart, the precursors are kind, and the films win the right kind of year-end hoopla. I realize that's a lot of "if"s. Future winners they're not but future nominees? One or two of 'em might be.
POTENTIAL WINNERS
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer's Club) has offscreen charisma (an advantage for campaigning), considerable recent acclaim and momentum, and a showy fiercely committed star turn with which to clobber the industry into submission, especially since he's been knocking supporting roles out of the park lately, too. But do they want him to win? When McConaughey first broke through with A Time To Kill (1995) he was quickly compared to Paul Newman in media profiles and reviews. AMPAS made Newman wait until he was 62 to win despite a filmography that was roughly 1 million times as impressive as the one McConaughey's been building. And if they love McConaughey so much where was his nod for Magic Mike last year, for a performance superior to ALL of last year's actual supporting nominees.
Bruce Dern (Nebraska) and Robert Redford (All is Lost) are both very real possibilities as nominees if you account for their reviews . They're potential winners if you account for the career honors factor. And you should. AMPAS is notoriously "in the moment" when it comes to actresses, regularly honoring them at the beginning of their careers before they've really proven anything beyond Future Promise. But with men, they want some years on them --a statistical fact -- and the industry by and large seems to really dig "thanks for the career!" prizes for men.
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) has four major things going for him right now. One) he's never won and Oscar eventually crowns the box office kings. Two) it's a showy "fun" looking-role and his competition is more severe in temperament and lord knows a curveball of mood was just what Leo needed since his roles were getting uncomfortably dour. Three) this might be vaguely reminiscent of a previous Oscar winner; Oscar loved the bad boy 'greed is good' antics of the last movie star Wall Street wolf. Four) the movie is still a wild card and people aren't really predicting Leo to win which means he can't wear out his welcome and fall from a pedestal he isn't on. He might still have an element of surprise if he (and the movie) really delivers. But still... he's often "snubbed" in the mainstream perception -- I mean I'm perfectly content with the lack of recent nominations but the majority of the moviegoing public is not -- suggesting that maybe there are pockets of the Academy that just aren't that into him.
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) could well be our prime stealth candidate who suddenly becomes a steamroller. I'm actually confounded that more pundits aren't betting on him. Yes, Foxcatcher is the most mysterious of all the films that have yet to screen and yes Carell is not exactly an Oscar Commodity but consider: Bennett Miller has to date never failed to win his actors nominations and though he's only made two narrative features (Capote & Moneyball) that's still quite a feat; Mental/Physical disabilities are literally the #1 Bait Gimmick with which to hook Oscar voters in this particular category and he's playing a schizophrenic; Carell does still carry a "comedian" persona to some degree and Oscar loves a funnyman who gets serious; they also love a prosthetic nose. I rest my case.... all four of them.
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) because it never ever ever ever ever hurts Best Actor candidates to be in the frontrunner for Best Picture. In fact, about 28% of Best Picture winners have also won Best Actor, which is an astounding stat. Yes, yes, the cries of "12 Years a Slave has already won Best Picture!" are super annoying and also terrible for the actual movie and our collective soul, but the point is that it IS in the lead, for what little that's worth, at this very moment. But even if it weren't, Chiwetel proves once again with his compelling performance that he's a potent screen presence and one of our (to this date) most underappreciated great actors.
Which five men do you think will still be standing in February to win nominations? And do you think about wins before nominations or do you try, like me, to keep the possibilities alive in your cranium?
Reader Comments (46)
I honestly think that Hanks has a shot. Not kidding. The emotional payoff in that film is so huge, and it's going to get a ton of nominations. His performance is great, and I could very well see him being in the top three when voting rolls around. But maybe his Disney performance will be just so incredible that they'll reward him there. I don't see either happening, but I'm just saying that he shouldn't be completely out of the conversation for winning.
Locks as of now:
Redford (frontrunner)
Ejiofor
McConaughey
Hanks (assuming the film does well in nominations... which I think it'll have no problem garnering 6 or 7 at least)
Not sure who's gonna get that fifth slot, but it's going to be a war. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
I'm so ready to pounce on the Gatsby narrative if we see DiCaprio, Redford and Dern (original
Tom) all nominated together.
Have you seen Captain Phillips yet? It's outstanding, and Hanks is just killer. Really smart, controlled performance that also gets big moments. Especially the very end--really emotional. It might be a bit too "genre" for the win, but if the movie's a hit (and I think it will be) watch out...
Beyond that, I can't figure out who might win. The buzz could easily latch onto any of those six guys. Oscar Isaac too, I think. Early critics awards might be big in shaping the field.
@Jordan-- what nominations would you peg Captain Phillips for? I could see Picture, Actor, Editing (could win), Score, Sound Mixing, easy. Outside shots at screenplay, cinematography, directing, sound editing.
I'm too sad about Grace of Monaco being delayed to focus on the men. I'll be fine, don't worry guys, I just need to be alone for a moment.
@Jake D Totally. I'm thinking Nat hasn't seen it yet, because Hanks gives my favorite performance of the year so far. I'm so used to seeing him coast through poor decisions the past few (ok, many) years, so this was a huge relief. And you're right about that ending. Just super well directed and such a huge payoff. I'd say Picture, Actor, Editing, both sound categories, score and screenplay. I think Greengrass could definitely show up in directing, and the cinematography might have a good chance as well. But you're right, those five (or six—I think sound editing is a go) seem pretty locked up.
Every time I hear "12 YEARS A SLAVE has already won Best Picture", I just think back 3 years and remember SOCIAL NETWORK getting the same raves *sigh*. So this race has only just begun.
but we are in September - did we know the winner last September? I think everyone was gripping about DDL's voice and thinking Joaquin had it in the bag. Things will be clear soon.
Jake D -- i have not seen capt. phillips yet. seeing it this friday.
murtada -- "things will be clear soon" - GOD I HOPE NOT. the not knowing is what makes it so exciting.
I don't think about who might possibly win until the nominations come out. I hate going into a movie comparing an actors work to whatever the consensus 'best' is at the time; it severly limits the way I can view the performance. It's not until after the nominations when I think about who could build the best narrative for their Oscar campaign, and who could possibly win from that group.
But that all falls apart on Oscar night when the wrong person wins which invariably leaves me SUPER pissed, and bugs me for months (or in some cases years) afterwards.
At this point, I see Chiwetel Ejiofor , Matthew McConaughey, and Robert Redford, in that order.
And then... I have no idea.
Ejiofor, Redford, and McConaughey seem like good bets for nominations. Dern as well, although slightly less so than the first three. But I'm having a really hard time figuring out which gent to predict for slot #5. I suppose it could be Hanks, but something about a Hanks nomination in this category feels so...tired? So 1990s? Admittedly, though, I haven't seen the film. Carrell will have to be really great to break through, I think, in such a competitive year--isn't there a bit of a bias in this category against actors who are viewed largely as comedians (aka the Jim Carrey factor)? Then again, Bradley Cooper broke through last year. I'd love to see Harvey somehow push Michael B. Jordan into the spotlight, but Jordan's chances are shaky right now, as are the chances of Harvey's other probable Best Actor candidate, Whitaker. And DiCaprio? I don't know, I just proceed with caution when it comes to Leo. Bale, maybe, but who knows until someone actually sees American Hustle.
So, yeah, I'm baffled.
I slightly disagree with Travis's comparison between The Social Network and 12 Years a Slave. In 2010, The King's Speech was considered a BP frontrunner very early in the process, after it had screened at a film festival (Toronto?). Then The Social Network came along, got critical raves, and started winning all the crit prizes, and it was then people started to think it might be the film to beat, only to have The King's Speech surge back to life with the guilds and, finally, Oscar. My point is, back in middle to late September of 2010, I think The King's Speech was seen as the BP frontrunner more than The Social Network was.
I agree that Chiwetel Ejiofor is at present grossly underrated and it would be great to see him in the running. Beyond him I would guess it will probably be Robert Redford OR Bruce Dern but not both. Leo if the movie is as good as it looks, McConaughey is due a nomination but not a win. If both Dern and Redford aren't nominated than maybe Tom Hanks or perhaps a dark horse, the stars of Prisoners are getting awfully good reviews it would be great to see either Jake or Hugh make the list.
I try not to think about the winner before the nominations unless it is abundantly clear as it was last year with DDL.
I still think Cate could lose. Adams has yet to be seen, and being overdue in a category full of former winners could help her. We'll see.
If I had to put money down at the moment, I'd go with Ejiofor or Redford, depending on how long 12 Years a Slave can maintain positive buzz. Anyone you mentioned could end up happening though. I could see a Hanks nomination too, but it's hard to imagine him winning a third.
It'll be Redford, McConaughey, Ejiofer, Hanks (for Captain Phillips), and maybe Idris Elba for Mandela, but I doubt Leo will get nominated at all (Dern will get moved to supporting due to voting shenanigans). Also, it's ridiculous Sandra Bullock isn't in your top 5 list but its your call of course. I think if she hadn't won for Blind Side, she would win for Gravity. She might still win if the movie is the blockbuster it looks like it'll be.
Best Actor & Supporting Actor might be one of two pairs.
McConaughey & Leto
Ejiofor & Fassbender.
For the love of God: please not another nomination to Hanks. I just cant stand that guy.
There I said it
Rooting for McConaughey, Eljofor, Jordan, Elba
And Cate Blanchett will win Best Actress in March 2014
For now, I'm going with Ejiofor, Dern, and Redford (all have post-festival raves) along with Hanks (seems like he's gotten great reviews from the limited amount that's been published about CP) and either Carell or Phoenix if Her is a critical hit.
That leaves McConaughey out in the cold. You've definitely laid out a good reason for why he might get in, but I worry that the movie is too small compared to those of his competitors, not to mention (which you also say in the article) that maybe they just aren't fans of his.
Who am I most excited about? Phoenix, Oscar Isaac, and Carell in that order.
Also, speaking of, when is the Foxcatcher trailer going to come out? They sure are taking their sweet time on this one.
It seems that everyone who has seen Captain Phillips is calling Hanks a good bet for a nomination. I think Ejiofor, McConaughey, and Redford are definitely in, and Hanks and Dern are currently the other two who look to be in at the moment but could still be booted out by an unseen performance (DiCaprio being the most prominent, but Carell and Bale too). My feeling is that Carell, DiCaprio, and Bale's chances are tied to their movies; in other words, if their movies become big Best Picture players, they could easily get in. But I don't really see any of those three getting in without their movie getting in for Best Picture. McConaughey, Redford, and probably Dern are strong enough to get in even if their movies don't (so is Ejiofor, but his movie IS getting in, so it's not worth speculating).
To all the Hanks haters, though, I'll at least say this: I seriously doubt Hanks will win Best Actor this year. He could, however, win Best Supporting Actor for Saving Mr. Banks. A double nomination for him actually looks very possible, and if it happens, I'm pretty sure his buzz will all be focused on his Mr. Banks role. The Captain Phillips nomination, while very possible, won't be in serious contention for the win, in my opinion.
Tom Hanks is always safe bet. if his movie gets good reviews (and this one odes) he's in.
How can there be pockets of the Academy not into Leo?? He so pretty...
(and super talented and all that too!)
My bets:
1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club (What did his Magic Mike performance in, ultimately, was a mixture of the same thing that did in Sally Hawkins Happy-Go-Lucky performance, too much reliance on "physicality as performance" and the trashy subject matter. With a performance where you can hear what makes it placeable as #1 and the baity subject, this is in.)
2. Chris Hemsworth, Rush (There's five hooks here: Sex and Drugs lifestyle (check), True Story (check), period (check), ultimately inspirational story (check), proof of range when compared against Thor: The Dark World (check). And Oscar pundits aren't placing bets on it? Yes, that last thing is pure narrative that has nothing to do with the performance itself, but narrative shouldn't be discounted for viability.)
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave (Best Picture frontrunner. Easy.)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (Speech clip friendly role and it's been a while since some comedy (and yes, this does seem to be a bit of a dark comedy) has creeped in.)
5. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis. (They nominated True Grit for 10 prizes. Somehow, this might not get as many, but it's getting some major stuff.)
Scepticism:
Redford (The closest they've gotten to nominating a one man show performance is Hanks in Cast Away, after that, maybe James Franco in 127 Hours, but there's so many flashbacks that involve interactions with other people in that one. If the end result is "We watch Redford survive on this island with no dialogue", I don't buy that the Academy will toss #1 votes at that, no matter how "aged" they are. I still think they're listening to these things more than they are watching them.)
Bruce Dern (As I've said: That bleeping stupidly repetitive trailer? YIKES. Not exactly getting my hopes up, seeing as how they're supposed to be selling the movie for ADULTS.)
Steve Carell (The reason you're predicting him is exactly why I can't. That prestige vending machine of a director that is Bennett Miller has to slip up, frankly. And considering this actor is probably a far harder sell for them than Brad Pitt or Philip Seymour Hoffman? I can't see it.)
Hanks (I have never really bought into Captain Phillips as a Best Picture possibility (For me, Green Zone stripped Greengrass' momentum and for any sort of action director it's ALL momentum) and the accent work in the trailer was just goofy. Sorry, to me, it was Keanu Reeves in Dracula level bad and even if he nails the emotional parts of the performance, I can't buy him getting any of the precious #1 votes based on that. Maybe the accent work is better in full context, but if it isn't, I hope he doesn't get the nom. Better to not bother (Charlton Heston in Touch of Evil is probably his career best work, after all) than do a bad one, y'know?)
We always float out these sentimental elderly contenders as threats to win, but the truth is that you have to be Miss Daisy or one of the On Golden Pond folks for that to translate into a statue. Seriously—Christie, Riva, O'Toole, etc. Those bids virtually never win in leading categories, even if they hold their own in the precursors. I don't include Helen Mirren because that's a whole nother thing.
Smart money has this on McConaughey. I don't think smug womanizing is going to win DiCaprio an Oscar anytime soon. Between this and his performance in Gatsby, it feels like he's fast forwarded to the dirty old man phase of Jack Nicholson's career. Besides, isn't it about 50-50 that McConaughey will steal DiCaprio's own movie from him, much less the Best Actor race?
The Wolf of Wall Street will steal everyone's thunder once November arrives. So watch out, people.
I was getting a little fatigued by Tom Hanks a few years back, but I feel that working on Cloud Atlas really invigorated him. He had a chance to experiment, to go to the edge of the ridiculous, to do grounded in the moment period work, to explore different facets of characters. It seems he came out of it refreshed as an actor, and now he has new ideas about how to construct and add depth to a character. So yeah, I'm in agreement that a supporting nom in Saving Mr. Banks looks like a really good bet, and that the leading role in the other would be one to watch.
In long shots, I'm still rooting for Ethan Hawke in Before Midnight. (Along with noms for Best Actress Delpy, Best Director Linklater, Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay).
What are the chances voters are going to buy Saving Mr. Banks as the Thompson show with Hanks supporting, rather than a duet? Based on the trailer, they are pretty equally matched. Add the fact that Tom Hanks is a Leading Man and his character is the Great Walt Disney, and I highly doubt a supporting campaign would stick.
Christie and Riva are women (and Riva was an aberration, given how few films she'd made - there really wasn't any sentiment involved in backing her nomination, because most Americans at least didn't have a strong previous attachment to her as an actress). The rules are different for women; once they age past 45 or so it becomes hard to win. (Also, Geraldine Page was an elderly female winner who definitely won for her body of work, but that's beside my point.).
Nathaniel is right when he says that AMPAS loves to give career honors in the Best Actor category - Al Pacino, Paul Newman, Peter Fonda. O'Toole never quite made it, but he wasn't as big a star as Redford, and Venus wasn't the platform that All Is Lost seems to be.
Suzanne...you could also have mentioned the case of Jeff Bridges getting the Best Actor Oscar for Crazy Heart, which is the most recent case of "gold watch Oscars." Colin Firth definitely deserved that one for his role in A Single Man.
Volvagia, it would be criminal if Hemsworth were nominated for BA for Rush and Brühl were not, given their roles and their performances.
Am I the only one thinking Don Jon could be huge for JGL? And Scarlett for that matter? Perhaps I just have fanboy delusions...
Suzanne—if your point is that 25-30 years ago, the Academy liked giving Best Actor awards to multiple nominees who already had honorary awards, then you have a point. I don't think Dern OR Redford are analogous to Pacino in '92, example-wise. Older actors have a better shot at sentimental career wins in the supporting category—Alan Arkin, Christopher Plummer, and even nominations like Hal Holbrook and Max von Sydow.
Older actors are preferred Oscar winners regardless of category. The best acting category in terms of fairness for all, where everyone is equal and competitive, Sup Actress. It has the best track record for people of color, all colors recognized, all ages, all sizes, it's the only category without the politics that lead to an exclusionary list of winners for the other three categories.
Poor Amy Adams --- looks destined to become a member of the
6 time loser club (Kerr/Ritter/Close).
I am still utterly disconsolate over Julie Christie's terribly unjust loss in 2007.
Jonn: Okay, I'm outing myself as kind of a massive nerd, but, if that spelling was supposed to be a reference to Martian Manhunter, you forgot an apostrophe between the J and the O.
Hayden W--The Saving Mr. Banks trailer did indeed make it seem like Thompson and Hanks had equal roles, but I think that's just a marketing strategy. If you have Tom Hanks as Walt Disney in your movie, you're going to want to highlight that as much as you can in the advertising campaign in order to sell tickets. I guess it's possible that they've increased his role since then, but I remember reading reports about the script that indicated Hanks would only have 20-30 minutes of screen time.
Volvagia - I'm not sure what your talking about. The spelling of what?
You conveniently ignore Django Unchained as a fun showy change of pace for Leo. Stop hating for the sake of hating, Nat.
The Gatsby reference made me just now realize that both alums Scott Wilson and Dern were in Monster.
Your handle. J'onn J'onzz? Like I said...kind of a massive nerd.
ant -- wouldn't "hating" require something more active than not mentioning something?
There is no Frontrunner in the Leading Actor Category? WHAT?!?
In my Opinion there is and there will be no Actor who will beat Matthew McConaughey for his phenomenal work in "Dallas Buyers Club"! With the last year he had and this year in "Mud" "The Wolf of Wall Street" and especially in "Dallas Buyers Club" he was from the beginning a Lock for the Win! There are only 2 Actors who came close to him and they are:
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave"
3. Steve Carell "Foxcatcher"
So Right now i would predict:
1. Matthew McConaughey "Dallas Buyers Club"
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave"
3. Steve Carell "Foxcatcher"
4. Robert Redfor "All is Lost"
5. Hugh Jackman "Prisoners"
Simon -- you can't be a lock for the win from the beginning when no one has seen your film. Yes, people have seen it now and they like it and he has a good shot at the win but good christ it's only september! what if the Academy is more resistant to Matthew than we know (did he come in 6th place or something much lower for Magic Mike?).... what if Steve Carell gives a "Monster" like performance? etcetera...
lots of questions still up in the air. Why does everyone want to coronate this early?
"Why does everyone want to coronate this early?"
a) For bragging rights.
b) Out of excessive fandom.
c) To sell product (or increase blog traffic etc).
d) All of the above.