157 days 'til Oscar
Wednesday, September 17, 2014 at 11:46PM We're still five months and a few days away from Oscar night so is it possible that things are starting to lock up? Ehhhh yes but mostly no. Every year all over the web casual movie fans and awards nuts like to start shouting LOCK as early as May for various things (usually centered around something becoming a massive hit or winning something at Cannes). But that's not really how it works. So here we are in September. A lot can happen in the last three and a half months of the calendar year leading up to the nominations. We've still got a long way to go and, conceivably, brilliant or lazy campaigns and smart or clumsy moves and release date shifts can still change everything... even if things are looking terribly good or just dismal for whomever or whatever. While I don't technically like to call anything or anyone a lock before it's actually opened (and thus eligible) the closest thing we have within the four acting categories are two, both in lead races: Reese Witherspoon (Wild) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything). They have all the ingredients you could want in a lead push -- the right release dates, the right kinds of roles with the right kinds of hooks, the right level of quality in the actual acting, the right early critical response, the right time in their careers, and a release strategy already carefully mapped out by the right studio.
There are other "likely!" contenders at the moment of course (Still Julianne, holla / Imitation of Benedict: The People's Choice) but I'd argue that Reese & Eddie are the closest to securing nominations.
And I'd argue that the Supporting Actress category is the most volatile where no one is particularly close It's easy to imagine my current predicted lineup being exactly right but it's almost as easy to imagine not one of the five of them making it if the films that still haven't screened or those that could yet gather more power or lose it, happen to shake up this category. Nobody is remotely safe yet. People like to claim that Patricia Arquette is a done deal for Boyhood and though I hope so I don't think so. We're still four months from nominations and pictures praised for being directorial visions are often where you end up with weird blindspots when it comes to the acting branch.
MAJOR UPDATES, MOVEMENT, NEW PLAYERS ON ALL FOUR ACTING CHARTS
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Who or what do you think locks up next?
Reader Comments (55)
I have a really really REALLY hard time seeing Steve Carrel missing the lead nomination. Especially the fact you have Keaton, Oyelowo and FIENNES in front of him. I understand your logic but to me an early release date + the fact no one has ever been nominated for acting in a Wes Anderson film compared to beloved comic actor + transformative role/prosethetics + film likely to get major nominations + prime release date makes it seem highly unlikely that Fiennes will best Carrel.
I also think you're underestimating Katherine Waterson and Inherent Vice all together.
Glad to see Swinton at the tail end of possibilities in Supp Actress.. It's a camp performance, sure, but an expertly judged one. Damn if it isn't the best thing about Snowpiercer! I hope they try some kind of campaign.
Emma Stone? Really? That would be so much fun. I can't wait to see BIRDMAN.
Your predictions feel apathetic. I have more confidence than you on Julianne Moore. But since you're a lifelong devotee I will assume your caution is a result of superstition. Why jinx the very real possibility of a genuine overdue actress receiving her just rewards in the category that is historically ageist against women in their 50's? Understood.
I appreciate your thoughts on these, but I think all the categories are still up for grabs. I only see Witherspoon and Moore as sure things for noms. If I had to pick a third, it's Cumberbatch.
If God exist Jenny Slate will get an a nomination, Tilda will win a second Oscar an Julianne will (FINALY) be an Oscar winner. But he obviously doesn't since Glenn, Genna and Annette are Oscarless. So perhaps Hillary (Shank that is) will win a 3rd one...
Nathaniel its a shame some of the other small independent films won't get academy love i can name 4 or 5 other performances that deserve Oscar attention but won't get it because there distributed by smaller distributing companies:
1. Gerard Depardieu Welcome to New York (The best lead male performance I seen all year)
2. Najarra Townsend The Toy Soldiers ( if you see the performance you will agree)
3. Constance Brennerman TheToy Soldiers
4.Nicolas Cage Joe
5. Chandler Rylko The Toy Soldiers
6. Zoe Kazan The Pretty One
All these performances are Oscar Worthy
The idea of "locks" always reminds me of Alice In Wonderland and the Mad Tea Party.
With locks, three or four great performances can come along at the end if the year, but there's only one available space, as everything else has been declared locks.
Alice goes to the tea party, and they cry, go away, go away, there's no room! Alice replies, whatever do you mean, there's plenty of room.
If Harvey wanted to be mean and devious, he could arrange for a TV channel in the US to play the BBC drama Hawking, which starred Benedict Cumberbatch, at a certain point in the season as to undermine Eddie.
Maybe I should get into Oscar campaigning!
I do hope Arquette makes it. Been a fan since... A Nightmare on Elm Street 3. Seriously
Andrew -- i guess i feel that the film is really dry and slow. I'm just not sure that it's going to be as big a hit with Oscar voters as it was with Cannes critics. In a way the prosthetics and mimicry acting should make Carell a sure thing but mostly in a year with so many people playing real life characters i just think that advantage is dulled a bit.
/3rtful - i'm not sure what you mean about julianne moore. it's not that i don't have confidence. But i think it would be silly to call her a lock when the film was just bought and they'll obviously have to scramble to come up with a plan and there's no poster or trailer or release date yet. But yes, I think people are being overly positive that she's going to win when only one 50something actress has ever won in the lead category.
Henry - but that's exactly my point. I think everything is still up for grabs except maybe 2 spots :) I do find it interesting that so many people are doubting Eddie Redmayne. It's not my favorite performance of the year but the night i saw it all i could think was "he has such a good shot at the win" Just about the only thing working against him is is age. He's not too young to win but he is young to win. He'd be the 8th youngest winner ever, interestingly enough, just a shade older than Daniel Day-Lewis was when he won from a wheelchair role.
I don't see Actor panning out like that at all,maybe we'll get a Hnaks/Giamatti like snub in Actor,Actress looks a bit clearer but i think people should have more hope in Swank,I feel stronger about Dern than most.
I think either Redmayne or Cumberbatch makes it.
Isn't Redmayne's acting basically mimicry, too (with the help of costuming where Carell's help is prosthetics)? I don't think there is an assumed frontrunner in Best Actor yet, but I've heard more people claim they think Keaton or Cumberbatch will win. I'll be very surprised if someone as young and unknown as Redmayne takes it, for a film that has no shot at Best Picture.
Physicists, mathematicians, women losing their mind... wake me up in April.
Pretty crazy that we could have a Savage Grace reunion in the winners' photo. Does Hugh Dancy have anything coming out this fall?
I just posted how I am giving up on the chances of a Ralph Fiennes nomination for GBH and here you go giving me hope again. I don't want my heart broken, Nat!
Other thoughts:
- If Laura Dern didn't make it in your Toronto Jury of One - possibly the most pro-Laura Dern voting body in the history of time - what chance does she have with Oscar?
- One of the main things Patricia Arquette has going for her which you didn't mention is that the film's big emotional pay off is hers. Ellar Coltrane is too busy living it to have any perspective, and Hawke's father is too casual a participant. Arquette is the one who sees the passing of time and so Boyhood's epiphany moment, which gives the film's final scenes such an impact, comes from her character. If voters go for Boyhood I don't see how they leave her out.
Lsat month I had the opportunity to go to a research screening of A Most Violent Year. If (and that's a big if) it comes out this year, Oscar Isaac (and possibly Albert Brooks with leftover good will from Drive) will be part of the overall conversation. Isaac is super compelling in the role. However, Jessica Chastain steals every single scene she is in and her absence often sucks the air out of the film. She owns it. Whenever the film gets released (possibly under a different title based on reaction and questions to the group), Chastain could easily (and deservedly) sail to a nomination in either lead or supporting if A24 is ready for its first big push.
My overall sense is they will hold the film until next year to give it some TLC before throwing it to the wolves.
I also heard online about how gr8 she is in this.
Nathan, do Lithgow or Molina stand a chance at all for Oscar nods? Please say yes!
As much as I hate to break it to Julianne Moore devotees, but she's going to lose that Oscar to Reese. Laura Jean will campaign so hard, it will put Tracy Flick to shame. There's just a lot of things going for Reese: that whole Reese-surgence thing; producing very good materials; working with top-notch directors, actually working with pretty much everyone in Hollywood. How could she lose? If Amy Adams gets nominated, she'll take away a chunk of the "she's so overdue" votes from Julianne.
Shirley MacLaine and Christopher Plummer in Elsa & Fred? I know the film's story -very baity- and just saw the poster. It premieres November 6. I guess Shirley and Maggie Smith would cancel each other out with voters who like to include a "veteran" in their line-ip.
Lyndee: The difference between the Reese-surgence and the McConaissance is this: The McConaissance started significantly before 2013 (probably started as early as early 2011), and continued past the moment that got him the Oscar. (Even if Interstellar isn't good, going with Nolan is going with a veneer of respectability and he's got Sea of Trees next year.) The Reese-surgence really just starts and ends this year. (Next year, Reese is going to be in a junky action comedy directed by the maker of Step Up and The Guilt Trip called (ugh) Don't Mess with Texas. After that, at least at the moment: Wish List, another attempt at a coin in a magic fountain movie. Oh, yeah, because When in Rome, the last time that was tried, went over SO WELL.)
Ugh I'm just having so much trouble getting excited about this year of films. Everything just seems so...uninspiring. Hoping there are gems that come out of NYFF, otherwise this might be a year where I take a backseat on new releases.
Volvagia, I did not even compare Reese's resurgence to Matthew's renaissance. So why bring the so called difference between the two? And while we're at it, let me just say that Matthew, prior to Mud/DBC is basically second tier: no significant critical acclaim nor solid box-office clout unlike Reese. But I agree with you though regarding Reese's future after this year because after Don't Mess with Texas, she'll work on Wish List and that Peggy Lee biopic to be directed respectively by some amateur directors named PAUL FEIG and TODD HAYNES.
I agree with Andrew regarding Katherine Waterston, she is definitely going to sail to a nomination. You should at least include her with the other Inherent Vice girls!
I can't stand Reese Witherspoon. I hope voters don't fall for her faux Southern charm act again.
Nat - The crowdpleaser gay romcom "The Way He Looks" will represent Brazil at the oscars.
I don't think it has great chances but I'm happy with this news.
How has Reese become the front runnershe got good reviews but nothing saying a 2nd oscar is imminet plus why give her 2 when Moore and Adams have 0 or will this be a 2004 Swank situation again.
Steven -- they're making an announcement today about its release date.
Mark - Reese is very good in the film in a film people like by a director that's hot right now. Plus it's deglam and she's naked and grungy and so on and so on against type work.
Hi! I'm Carlos, from Brazil. Our country has submitted the amazing "The Way He Looks" to try a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film.
I feel so bad about Cotillard. I don't think she will be nominated but could she pull a Rachel Weisz and get a Golden Globe nomination for en early performance?
I think she stands a chance if the critics remember her (like NYC revived Weisz).
But Moore is gonna win, I think. They KNOW it's a shame she never won.
I wouldn't count Cotillard out just yet. The studio that picked up Two days, One night are planning a full push for her for this year.
Actor looks ridiculously competitive, and it feels like Actress is unusually thin, so, personally, I'm more interested in the supporting categories. It seems like there's a fair bit there that could break through your current top 5s in both. For one thing, unless the film is an utter disaster, I'd bet on Kendrick or Blunt getting a nomination.
I still say Cumberbatch builds on the goodwill toward his film and his ties to Harvey Weinstein and is a lock, even over Redmayne. But I haven't seen the films.
(Random aside- Redmayne looks *incredibly* young. I was shocked to find out that he's 32. We know how Oscar voters are ageist against young males... I wonder if that will figure into the race.)
I'd also say both Moore and Witherspoon are locks on the Actress side of things. I don't think there are any locks in the supporting categories-- there's too many contenders from unseen films and too much leading/supporting confusion.
In Picture, I'd put The Imitation Game down as a lock for a nom.
Anyway, it's nice to see the field so wide open this year!
Also, there were several other foreign language submission choices made today-- Brazil, as mentioned above, but also Bolivia, Colombia, Morocco, Panama, and Slovenia.
Belgium and Canada are up tomorrow! I hope neither one of them shafts their leading contender again, as both have been known to do.
Evan, the Czechs also announced their choice in the Foreign-language category.
As for Canada, there's a press conference to announce the choice on Friday at 1:30 PM Eastern tim,e which Telefilm Canada will be streaming on their website at www.telefilm.ca , if you're interested.
Ah- I couldn't remember if I'd seen the Czech submission before or not. Thanks.
Canada's simply has to be Mommy, right? They've snubbed him before, but they've also send his works before and this is perhaps his best known.
I think that Meryl Streep will be the only one nominated for Into the Woods.I don't see people voting for Anna Kendrick's Cinderella or Emily Blunt.
Anyone knows how much screen time Emma Stone has in Birdman?
fyi people all the foreign charts are updated with the 41 official submissions. I'll do a post about this soon too but since you're talking about it...
Nat, maybe it's just me, but I couldn't tell which foreign films were official submissions and which were theory (Mostly, that is. A couple were clear.). Did I miss something?
re: Mike in Canada
Okay, now Moore and Redmayne NEED to win. I didn't love Savage Grace, but come on, that would be brilliant to see.
Nat - You don't think Vanessa Redgrave has a shot with 'Foxcatcher', do you?
Adams, Moore, Whitherspoon, Swank, Streep - that would be a great Best Actress lineup!
John D -- she only has a couple of lines.
Henry -- the official ones are listed by title with the director and everything... the unofficial say "TBA" but i think there's some weird coding issues with paragraph breaks i'll have to look into.
Thanks Nat. Where do you think Mexico, Turkey and Venezuela fit in regard to the 5 you have selected?
Check what you say about George Wallace (Roth listing).
Suggestion for winnings/nominations listed (I think those are the right numbers):
Meryl Streep
N:3/15;1/3
Brad Pitt
N:0/1;0/2*
*Plus nomination/s and/or winning/s in other field/s.
Too complicated?
Great site!: Engaging writing, interesting (side-)topics, thorough information, lively discussions – including comments.
Thanks.
Capita: I get what you're trying for, but Streep, in Lead Actress, would be 2/15;1/3 and Pitt, in Lead Actor, would be 0/2(Button and Moneyball);1/3(12 Monkeys, The Artist, 12 Years a Slave).
Great! I'm always t s k'ing (the machine doesn't let me write t s k together) all the mistakes people make and there I go – among the BIGGEST! I've seen. Thank you, Volvagia. Except I would like the non-acting nominations asterisk-ed. But I think everybody here knows about all nominations so it's probably not needed. Lonely in Chicago.
What about Elle Fanning, John Hawkes and Glenn Close for Supporting in Low Down. It opens (limited release) in October. Just saw the trailer and looks good.