Who Will Be This Year's Surprising Snub at the Oscars?
Friday, January 8, 2016 at 3:10PM 
Coco here, ready to talk about the current Oscar race and the surprising snubs that wait around the corner.
Last week, I wrote about performances that might get nominated despite not having a lot of precursor support. This week, I'm writing about the opposite. If you're an actor and you're nominated for the Golden Globes, the SAG awards, and the BAFTAs, then you're widely assumed to be a lock for an Oscar nomination. This is true for the most part, but there are plenty of instances in which seemingly beloved performances that do great with precursors are nowhere to be found on Oscar morning. This has been especially true in recent years. We've seen at least one such performance be left off Oscar's list in each of the last four years.
Here's a quick rundown...
2014 - Jake Gyllenhaal's performance in Nightcrawler popped up at all the right places. What's more, the movie seemed to gain momentum consistently, scoring nominations from practically every awards-giving body throughout January. As you probably know, Jake didn't get the nomination. Maybe Oscar didn't like Nightcrawler as much as we were expecting. After all, the movie only got one nomination for Original Screenplay.
2013 - This year was a bloodbath as far as snubs are concerned.
2012 and 2011... and 2015 speculation after the jump.
Jake Gyllenhaal is still looking for Oscar nom number 2
The most surprising omission was Tom Hanks, who gave one of the best performances of his career in Captain Phillips. The movie scored six nominations including Best Picture, but Oscar couldn't make room for its lead star. Also ignored despite support from SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes were Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks and Daniel Brühl in Rush. Although neither of those films were as beloved as Phillips (Saving Mr. Banks only got one nomination for Original Score, Rush wasn't nominated at all).
2012 - It seems like Oscar can't nominate more than one foreign language performance at the time. Since they nominated Amour Emmanuelle Riva, Marion Cotillard got the boot despite being nominated at the big three precursors for Rust and Bone. It's also easy to forget now, but Helen Mirren was somehow also nominated by all three for her performance in Hitchcock.
2011 - We Need to Talk About Kevin doesn't seem like an awards-friendly movie, but Tilda Swinton got nominated consistently throughout the 2011 season. At the end, she didn't find favor with Oscar, who preferred Rooney Mara's Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
As you can see, these "surprising snubs" are not a coincidence. They are a trend, and they suggest at least one of this year's most awards-friendly performances might be left off Oscar's list. The question, of course, is which one?
The BAFTA nominations were announced this morning, thus completing the "big three" precursors as far as acting awards are concerned. This year, we have thirteen performances nominated by the Golden Globes, the SAG, and the BAFTA. Let's take a closer look and try to figure out who'll miss Oscar's list.
Could both Carol performances be snubbed? 'Cause I don't think I could take it...
Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) are the only Lead Actresses that have appeared at all three award shows (in the same category). The category is so wide-open in terms of possibilities thanks to SAG's left of field decision to honor Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman, and the Golden Globes category fraud resistance that it would be truly shocking if any of these ladies is left off Oscar's list. But hey, we might have said the same thing about Tom Hanks two years ago and look how that turned out. It pains me to suggest this (because I love the performance), but maybe Cate Blanchett is in a similar situation this year? Like Hanks, she's a big star with two Oscar under her belt, maybe voters will think she's been awarded enough?
Meanwhile, the confusion of which category will Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) and Rooney Mara (Carol) compete at the Oscars remains unanswered. They've been nominated for all "big three" awards, but in different categories each time. Supporting at SAG, lead at Globes, and split at BAFTA (Vikander lead, Mara supporting). It seems more and more likely that Vikander will get two nominations on Thursday (lead for Danish Girl, supporting for Ex Machina), but then again competing against one-self can be messy. Category confusions could certainly keep either of these ladies off Oscar's list.
However, category confusion will most likely not hurt Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), who's been nominated consistently in the supporting category. It shouldn't hurt Christian Bale (The Big Short) either, especially since his movie is quickly becoming a front-runner for Best Picture. He was nominated as a lead at the Globes, but Oscar will most likely agree with SAG and BAFTA and put him in supporting.
'Beasts' doesn't have much traction, but seems like Idris Elba is in for a nomination.Along with Bale for the Supporting Actor ride are Mark Rylance, who is all but assured a nomination for Bridge of Spies, and Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation). If any of these three actors is going to fall out, I'd put my money on Elba based on the fact that Beasts doesn't seem to have much traction in any other category. If Elba is snubbed, however, we might have yet another year of #OscarSoWhite, and that would be just embarrassing.
In the Lead Actor category, we have Leonado DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), and Bryan Cranston (Trumbo). Other than Leo, I wouldn't call any of these men a safe bet. The Danish Girl and Steve Jobs don't have much buzz to speak of, and the love for Trumbo remains rather puzzling. However, there doesn't seem to be much room for surprises in this category (is the assumption that Leo is going to win what's made this category so boring?). Here's hoping a geat performance like Michael B. Jordan's in Creed finds support to surprise on Thursday.
Does this sound like a trend to you? Which of these thirteen actors do you think will be left off Oscar's list on January 14th?
Reader Comments (56)
I know she also missed out on a Globe nod but I remember my jaw dropping when Oprah didn't get a nomination for The Butler
I'm more worried for Rooney Mara with each passing day. Carol is such an enigma right now - the Academy could go crazy for it and give up to 9 nominations, or Blanchett could be the only nominee - and any scenario in between. But if Carol is not as well-liked as many hope, then Mara's category confusion could easily find her left out of the mix altogether.
I was considering this same question today, and I think that Fassbender and/or Winslet may be the surprise snubs. Interest in the film has long since peaked and faded, there's no chance that either of them will win the eventual trophy, and with the exception of Fassbender, most of the film's big names (Sorkin, Boyle, Winslet, etc.) have already won Oscars. I think Winslet is especially vulnerable, though personally I would be sad to see her miss the shortlist.
I could see Cranston missing, even as he looks more and more locked up.
You don't think Damon is also strong in the Actor category? I'd bet The Martian has more fans than The Danish Girl.
That's a really good point. It's also a question as to whether the Academy will have room for ANY actress above the age of 35.
Best Supporting Actor is where we're gonna see the most snubs / surprise. Really, only Rylance is safe. Stallone could be end up like Albert Brooks in "Drive".
Anyone who predicts that category 5 for 5 should get a metal.
Is there ANY way Alicia Vikander could end up like Scarlett Johansson in 2003... i.e. two loved performances and category confusion canceling herself out???
I'm fearing most for Todd Haynes here. What is happening with Andy Mckay is beyond my comprehension. He's a lock. So, who's missing in best director? Be very afraid.
Mark -- this is like a challenge. I accept. HAHA
Haynes is a long shot IMO. Jay Roach has as good of a chance as Haynes.
In order of likelihood:
1. Scott
2. McKay
3. Miller
4-5. A combo of McCarthy, Spielberg or Innaritu
Remember when EVERYONE was floored by the Dennis Quaid FAR FROM HEAVEN snub?? That could likely be Rooney Mara this year :-(
Rami-
OMG yes, that Oprah snub must've stung!! She has everything going for her and she was very good in that film!
Is it possible that Redmayne gets left off? Vikander is the real star of that film. I would like Michael B. Jordan to take his place. Or take anyone's place. He should have been nommed for Fruitvale Station too.
2014: Anniston was nominated for SAG, BAFTA & GG. But on this site I don't think it was considered much of a snub.
I could see just about anything or anyone getting snubbed this year.
Pam-
I was thinking that too... Affter I saw The Danish GIrl, Redmayne's performance was a bit of an afterthought... Vikander however, made quite the impression.
Snubs Predicting:
Actor - I think Fassbender or Damon will be left out of Best Actor in favor of Steve Carell or Michael B. Jordan. Only DiCaprio seems like a safe bet right now, and there's no real fervor for any other candidates, so Carell could get caught up in "The Big Short" wave and ride it to another nomination.
Actress - Vikander is looking more and more like a double nominee, but it would be interesting if "Ex Machina" gets her in and "The Danish Girl" performance is snubbed given how much more Oscar-friendly it really is.
Supporting Actor - I think there's no such thing as a "snub" here this year. Way way too many candidates all spread out - anyone really can make it in - we have 11 legitimate candidates and still have dark horses like Oscar Isaac outside of that that I believe in.
Supporting Actress - Winslet seems far from a lock to me (even though she's the most likely nominee) and I wouldn't be shocked by a snub.
David - I still constantly (mis)remember that Dennis Quaid was nominated for Far From Heaven. That's when I know something was a snub. See also - Tilda in We Need To Talk About Kevin. Crazy that a performance in such a divisive film missed out in the balloting system (weighted towards 1st place votes) that favoured her most!
Rami and David - I distinctly recall that Nathaniel had Oprah "locked" in November and NOT ONE OF US would have disagreed. Then the blip of the Globe miss. Yet I was still amazed that she didn't get in - she had just about everything in her favour, or so it seemed.
I kind of love it when a crazy nomination or snub happens, like Cotillard getting in last year without a BAFTA nomination - the body most open to Foreign Language performances.
It stops us from treating Oscar Predictions as a science, and for that I am grateful!
Bruno - last year Aniston missed at BAFTA (there was some confusion here over whether she was even eligible - I thought not, but I think somebody did find that she was on an eligibility list)
I think Mara is most vulnerable because I think people voting her lead will make a point of not voting for her as support. I also think she's getting placed/ranked on lead ballots further down than Blanchett (though I'd place her ahead), and she's therefore getting fewer top votes. I think if she shows up at all it's in Support. Which is maddening, but I suspect she's getting plenty of top votes there.
Haynes' presumed vulnerability is only based on how Carol does in general and we still don't know how the Academy will feel about that movie. The guilds made us shaky, sure, but we still don't know. DGA will be interesting. Is it one of the solid central nominees along with Bridge of Spies and Spotlight or does it eek out only a few nods like Far From Heaven did back in 2002? It could theoretically do a repeat of its BAFTA turnout and we'd all breathe a sigh of relief as well, sans Rooney who gets snubbed out of confusion. Idk idk it's hard to gauge.
Anybody who gets more than 15 acting nominees right will be deemed an oracle. All those categories are ripe with spoilers, which is so rare.
Steve Jobs seems like something they could completely forget about. Who is even gunning for that movie still? That frees up a spot in Best Actor for Damon or Jordan and Supporting Actress for whomever has enough strong outlier support, like Fonda.
Of the 13 here, I'll go with any one of Rooney, Alicia, Fassbender/Winslet, and Cranston because I hope Trumbo is only a red herring and we all laugh about it weeks from now.
No way is Winslet being snubbed,at least her's is a true supporting role,made for Oscar,plus it's been a while since her last time round..
I think Winslet is the only true lock for supporting actress. Who knows what happens with Mara and Vikander (for two films!). The rest of the nominees is totally unpredictable with Fonda, Mirren, Leigh, McAdams, Walters, Stewart, Allen and Banks as strong possibilities.
The Mad Max crash and burn at BAFTAs is making me feel like Natalie Portman at the end of Revenge of the Sith.
"You're breaking my heart!" /overacting
I think the big snubs will be Matt Damon, Jennifer Lawrence, Idris Elba and Jennifer Jason Leigh and The Hateful Eight in toto.
I'm so scared that those four in actor are all going to stay where they are. Best Actor seems so into capital-A Acting this year, and with their thing for biopics in general. All of those men seem vaguely mystifying as contenders, especially given how well they're doing in the races. Redmayne feels the most vulnerable, but he just won one, Cranston's film is only gaining momentum, DiCaprio has so much goodwill behind him, I guess Fassbender's the most vulnerable but that feels like it's locked up too.
Honestly, Mara and Vikander feel pretty safe to me? Whatever pushbacks they've gotten, Mara's still be in Supporting for every race that's allowed it, and Vikander being recognized as a lead only opens her up for another Supporting nomination. Maybe they won't show up at all, maybe Vikander will be here twice, but I can't imagine them both missing, let alone one of them.
@Aaron - I totally agree about Winslet. She's the only frontrunner in her category that's exclusively appeared in her category, and I'm sure everyone's excited to welcome her back for good work.
I don't see Damon missing. The Martian is a very well-liked film and he's really at the center of it.
I can see Jennifer Jason Leigh getting snubbed. It would be appropriate given her history with the Academy.
And Rooney Mara? Who knows. I can see her winning in lead or in supporting, or not being nominated at all. That's how crazy this year is.
And I love it.
Fassbender seems the likely snub for Lead Actor. Not sure it would be that shocking though. I expect the shock might be if they nominate Keaton for Lead in his place. Jordan has no chance.
Supporting Actor is so up in the air, I think Stallone, Elba or Shannon could all miss. My money is on Ruffalo getting in there somewhere. Hardy as an unlikely but possible dark horse.
Matt Damon in favor of Michael B Jordan or *who knows?* Johnny Depp/ Steve Carell. And I agree with Sylvester Stallone possibly being the Albert Brooks in Drive of this year- respected actor being recognized across the board, still gets snubbed due to heavy competition in the category.
If the Best Actor slate turns out to be my favorites—Courtenay/Fassbender/Jordan/McKellen/Röhrig—who are the snubbees? Oh, them. (Totally unlikely, though.)
nathaniel, UPDATE YOUR PREDICTIONS, we're on pins-and-needles ;)
Lawrence and Rampling are in a bit of trouble which means there are open spots for Best Actress.
I think Vikander gets in here with Lawrence, and gets in supporting as well. Mara I think may miss out but Supp Actress is a mindf**k at the moment so who knows.
Best Actor and Supp actor don't realy have any concencus bar Leo and Rylance, so any snub wouldn't be surising!
Guide us Nathaniel!
I am utterly lost this year
My dear Coco, you seem to forget one of the biggest snubs of the decade: FASSY!
If Winslet gets snubbed I'm taking the next few years off caring. Am I the only one who thinks, in hindsight, that Steve Jobs was actually probably one of the better movies that came out this year? Sure, when I saw it, I thought, "It's good, but it's not going to win best picture." But frankly, when I saw everything else, I had the exact same reaction. Of course I also thought that when I saw The Queen and Mirren's performance. Spotlight is fine, but it will be like Argo, a completely forgotten Best Picture winner. Last year I saw Boyhood and Birdman, and was like, "Shit, now that's gotta win!" I haven't felt close to that this year, except maybe for Room and Brooklyn. Those the only movies that've moved me emotionally. The rest seem like technical things, and as far as technical things, Steve Jobs was so much better than Spotlight, The Big Short, etc. Carol is at least artistic, even if it's not particularly emotionally stirring, at least for me.
I truly hope the Best Actor race ends up with many front runner snubs so Courtenay, Jordan and Caine get in. And also Isaac, who is lead in Ex Machina.
There WILL be shocking snubs and shocking surprises.
I am predicting Todd Haynes will miss out on a Best Director nom and my belief that Charlotte Rampling will finally get nominated took a dive today when the BAFTAs snubbed her.
The big surprise - IMO - will be Will Smith's nomination for Concussion.
And I think Sylvester Stallone might finally get his Oscar - playing the same role that he did almost 40 years ago. The Academy love to honour this sort of thing.
Jeff, I've been pretty much saying the same thing for weeks about the films of 2015. But Son of Saul did rise above the pack and blow them away.
" It's also easy to forget now, but Helen Mirren was somehow also nominated by all three for her performance in Hitchcock."
Oh, I remember. It's the only thing getting me through the days hoping the same thing will happen with TRUMBO.
Tony, big difference between Johansson and Vikander is that both of Johansson's performances were very quiet and restrained, minimal. That can't be said for Vikander who has a very big, emotional role in DANISH GIRL and a villainous one in EX MACHINA.
Stallone has not been nominated by his peers. ACTORS. On either side of the Atlantic. Star fucking HPR, NBR and some big name bloggers do not equal SAG & BAFTA. There are too many highly respected contenders in this category. And this is a competitive Oscar, not an honorary one (another scary thought). Harrison Ford was much better in his reprisal of a 40 year old role if they are in a sentimental mood.
you know what, I will take any frickin snub or surprises only if stallone is NOT nominated. I hate rocky so much for stealing all of Network's Oscars.
currently I think they'll be...
Adam McKay (even if he gets a DGA nod, i don't see Oscar's directing branch getting behind such mediocrity)
Helen Mirren
Michael Shannon
The Martian (adapted screenplay)
and i just can't decide about Fonda. I know she's a legend and they love her but that role is *so* tiny and with two leading ladies and showy work from Winslet and Leigh in the mix...
Yeah, Tom hanks and Oprah were proably the most shocking (acting) snubs in recent years though I can't remember a snub as jaw-dropping as affleck and bigelow in directing. Before nomination morning, we though they were the front runners. Anyway, this year has been crazy so any amount of fuckery could occur.
My dearest wish for a snub would be Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't think he is "overdue", I think he has been "over nominated" in the past.
The Revenant is a real male vanity project, full of macho posturing, indulgent improvisations, and slow and dull with it. I loved the critic who called it "a prestige episode of Jackass".
Does anyone know what happens if you receive the needed number of votes in BOTH lead and supporting? Do they then place the actress in whatever category the got more votes in?????
Nathaniel? Anyone?
brock: here (scroll down)
I went 5/5 last year for Best Actress- correctly predicting Cotillard would replace Aniston. But this year is a lot more challenging. Still, snubs happen EVERY year. And a snub in my book means you were on the cards with all the major precursors except Oscar's shortlist.
My predictions in the acting races below. These will most likely change Oscar Nomination eve.
________________________________
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Steve Carell, The Big Short
With all the hype surrounding Adam McKay's masterpiece (I loved it), I think the true wildcard is Steve Carell- who we all remember replaced Jake Gyllenhaal last year unexpectedly. His performance is top notch, funny and dynamic - and since voters know this is the movie that's threatening Spotlight's position, they will watch it and see the goods.
I am also betting the snub for the morning in Best Actor will be TV star Bryan Cranston, who has reaped all the important bids for Trumbo- even though many admit it's a hammy movie. True, voters do love films about Hollywood- but they also love Hollywood stars; TV actors (like Aniston proved last year) can sometimes struggle. Mary Tyler Moore's fierce nominated role in Ordinary People comes to mind as a woman who was able to defeat those criticisms and still manage a leading nod. Ditto for Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets. But those women were in Best Picture contenders, something Trumbo isn't going to do.
Matt Damon is also vulnerable, but I think the plug for The Martian, his almost guaranteed Globe win Sunday (which Oscar voters can predict he will win since ballots for the Academy Awards will be in already, so there will be no influence) and his personal Hollywood charm. I think DiCaprio, Redmayne and Fassbender are safe- though I agree the latter could be dropped since there's literally zero enthusiasm for that box-office flop.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
While last year seemed to solidify 7 possibilities with Adams and Aniston nixed, this year has a plethora of female performances to choose from. And everyone is going in different directions- making the frontrunner a mystery despite so many pundits insisting it's Brie Larson's to lose. I am on the camp that says it's Ronan's, as the former Oscar nominee is in a movie more likely to be embraced by the academy- especially in the Best Picture race.
I want to say Blanchett should win this, but I've seen Carol and it wasn't AS spectacular as people made it out to be. While she is indeed the standout, I think she can sit this round out and hope she does magic with the Lucille Ball biopic. Rooney Mara has many insisting she's lead too, but the Carol I saw was all about Blanchett's character and Mara fading in the background. She doesn't have a strong enough presence in the movie to be considered lead (unlike Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in Thelma & Louise, who both prove impeccable and worthy of their lead nods).
Two slots open. Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman both landed SAG nominations way out of left field. But Mirren's absence from the BAFTA nominations makes me think her SAG nod was just for name filler. She's decent in the movie, but it's too full this year. Silverman's is even more strange, and I doubt voters bite.
My money is on Alicia Vikander, who IS LEAD in The Danish Girl and unlike Mara, she let's you KNOW SHE IS. She commands the screen and even outshines costar Redmayne. I not only predict her to be nominated here, I might even say she could WIN.
The final slot and it's sink or float- so I'm jumping ship with Charlotte Rampling screaming all the way with me. If voters actually WATCHED 45 Years, they would easily nominate her. But WILL they watch it? It's questionable. The thing that helped Cotillard get in last year was not only her performance, but also the fact that she was an Oscar winner with an established star persona and fan base. Rampling may have devoted subjects, but they're not as loud. I am betting, however, that she reaps enough number 1 vote placements to get a spot. Her performance will ultimately land her number 1s vs 2s and 3s, which is why I am saying Nay to Jennifer Lawrence. The only other wildcard is another Brit- Maggie Smith, who did get the BAFTA nod and might upset at the Globes. But is she too late to the party? I'm betting yes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
The hardest races to predict undoubtably fall in the supporting fields. Only Rylance seems safe to go- and with the respect his movie is getting and his performance as the reason the movie works, he's a solid frontrunner. Ditto for Elba, whose movie DID manage that SAG Ensemble bid besides being absent everywhere else. It's a performance that is a standout.
Look for Bale here too, in a very worthy performance that was perfectly PERFECTLY delivered!
Open slots have room for upsets. Can Benicia del Toro's late surge make him show up, or Sylvester Stallone's sentiments in Creed? I am thinking neither makes it. The latter especially was okay, but he was essentially hitting the repeat button for a recycled character. Creed has underperformed everywhere, and I just think it's not as remarkable to voters as we assume. I think Michael Shannon (who upset in 2008 with that Revolutionary Road nod) will get the spot that's seen him everywhere else, and Mark Ruffalo will be deemed best in show for Spotlight. I wish Tom Hardy could make it, and if love for Leo's movie (and imminent win) is strong, Hardy could get swept up.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
This is a mind fuck category - pardon my French. I have no idea honestly. Mara, if placed here, will be competitive to win. If Vikander gets in here for The Danish Girl vs Ex Machina, watch out. If she's double nodded and places here for the same sci-fi movie- DEF watch out! Winslet seems safe which is not always a good thing. She was okay in the movie, but her uneven accent and hairdo got on my nerves. Jennifer Jason Leigh has been accused of chewing scenery in Hateful Eight- but voters LOVE scene chewing. And she's been in the business a while with zero Oscar nods. This is another reason why she might miss- because she is known as a Bridesmaid with the academy.
Helen Mirren in Trumbo is here ONLY because I can't validate anyone else. If support for Brooklyn or Room is big, then Julie Walters and Joan Allen have shots to upset here. I also think Kristen Stewart has been unfairly overlooked just because her movie came out A LONG time ago in a galaxy far, far away. And sorry, Rachel McAdams was a total snoozefest in Spotlight. She's done better performances on red carpet interviews then she did with that underwritten role. If she gets in, its because this category is weak. Jane Fonda was too brief in Youth for me, but she is Hollywood Royalty.
That's it for now!
I also think Blanchett is going to be snubbed, with Rooney nominated in the leading race (alongside Rampling, Ronan, Larson and Lawrence) - and Vikander nominated for "Ex Machina" in Supporting. I'm feeling a bit weary about Fassbender and Winslet, too.
Jason all of your reasons for my saying Mara is supporting our quslitative about you thinking she wasn't great. How good u are in s role has no bearing on whether it's a lead of supporting role. The story is what determines that. And by any conceivable description / definition CAROL is s romantic drama and that means two leads .
@Nate: I still feel Mara was not leading. The story felt more focused on Blanchett's story. Screen time should not always = lead or supporting. Anthony Hopkins is on screen 16 minutes in Silence of the Lambs, and he deservedly won Lead Actor because his character was that impactful and important. Cate Blanchett had a lot of screen time in Notes on a Scandal, but it was Judi Dench's story. I still am predicting Mara but I think she belongs in supporting. If she makes it into the leading race, more props to her!
Jason - ur still equating quality with lead in that argument and also suggesting that a story can't be more than one persons story -- it's very rare that love stories aren't the story of two people!