Silence Poster Reveal... and Oscar Chart Updates
Tuesday, November 22, 2016 at 12:19PM 
Every time we received news of Martin Scorsese's Silence it's like a splash of cold water or a pinch. In other words a jarring 'oh yes, that movie' or a 'wow, we weren't dreaming it. It does exist!' thing.
Today the poster has been released and you can see a detail to your left of Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver trudging on to the shores of Japan at 17th century missionaries in search of their mentor Liam Neeson, he of frequent mentor-playing in the movies.
The Full Poster and some Best Picture thoughts follow after the jump...
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My personal pundit faith in the movie kept decreasing as we waited longer and longer for any news which is why it's sitting at #10 in the updated Best Picture chart which is not quite nominated but definitely not out of the running. At the very least we know it won't be able to count on much precursor support given its late arrival. It could of course be the late arrival that changes nearly everything (as The Revenant was last year) but that remains to be seen.
Will the precursors change much of our expectations? It's currently looking like the top tier (the 'safe' titles) are five: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Fences, Moonlight, and Jackie. Then there are four pictures which have good reason to hope for attention but are probably needing and banking on significant precursor attention: Lion, Loving, Arrival and Hell or High Water.
There's also Silence and Sully and 20th Century Women and a whole bunch of late release pictures that could benefit from doing well with precursors. Live by Night and Hidden Figures might factor in/ they might not... it's hard to say. But I wouldn't expect, say, The Founder or Gold to make much impact outside of, arguably, the Best Actor category where both Michael Keaton and Matthew McConaughey hope to compete given the vagueness of the category beyond the Casey Affleck vs. Denzel Washington title bout. But more on that when we get to Best Actor.
One Final Thought: Given the reviews and attention paid to them, might we see Elle or Toni Erdmann slip into screenplay contention in Adapted and Original respectively which sometimes happens for hot foreign titles?
WHICH FILM DO YOU THINK WE'RE OVERESTIMATING AND VICE VERSA? (You should also check out the Gurus of Gold charts to see how Nathaniel's expectations align or diverge from other pundits here.)
UPDATED CHARTS
(acting and directing have not yet been updated)
INDEX
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VISUAL CATEGORIES
SOUND CATEGORIES
ANIMATED FILMS / DOCS
FOREIGN FILMS
SCREENPLAYS
Reader Comments (13)
Wow, that poster's composition is a total copy of High and Hell Water's, with the old guy towering like a ghost and the two young men walking towards you in the bottom right corner.
And, incidentally, I think Hell or High Water will do very well at the Oscars.
There's at least one film and performance out there we are all underestimating.When they really love you it helps.
i suspect 'moonlight' will be a hit with the critics but a miss with the academy [at least in best picture] and 'lion' the opposite
i suspect 'moonlight' will be a hit with the critics but a miss with the academy [at least in best picture]
That makes zero sense with an expanded Best Picture field.
I really hope that if Denzel gets a nomination for Best Director it's for his quality of work and not celebrity status. Because, ugh.
Yikes on how grim those first two SILENCE posters are
I agree that Dory is slipping (who even remembers that happened?) and I like that Hidden Figures is rising-I think it's going to make it, as it's inspirational and "rah rah" America in the right ways in the specter against what's happening nationally.
Nat: I really hope writers still nominate Zootopia over Hell or High Water. That is what writers are supposed to do for Original Screenplay, after all: Pluck out the 5 movies that are the best at being either creative (like Zootopia) or, for lack of a better term, "writerly." Hell or High Water is just another of it's plentiful type.
That Silence Poster: I can't be the only one that, in spite of how dark it's lit, heard Simple and Clean ripping through their head at how the poster is structured. Seriously, Liam Neeson is positioned as a giant bleeping cartoon keyhole, so how CAN'T I think "Kingdom Hearts."
Judging by the reviews, Moana is coming for Zootopia's animation Oscar.
Why are those two guys walkin' around in Liam Neeson's crotch areas?
It looks like the poster for an important film by an major film director.
Could score better than expected:
If screenplays aren't tied to Best Picture campaigns:
"Hunt for the Wilderpeople" in Adapted.
"The Nice Guys" in Original.
"Hidden Figures" seems to have all the elements voters are expected to acknowledge this year. It's about women, African-American women who are smart and contributing to a great American feat, it's a serious subject, BUT it doesn't make you feel bad. It has an old school movie star (Kevin Costner) breaking up a segregation sign (and the women are gorgeous, which never hurts).
"Rules Don't Apply" may have gotten lukewarm reviews from many reviewers, but they are not voters. Warren Beatty is the only person (?) to have twice gotten 4 nominations in a year for Actor, Director, Producer, Writer. And this may be his last movie. And it isn't preachy, it's light-hearted and fun.
Silence is definitely getting nominated. The novel is amazing ( and also surprisingly adaptable given that its largely an epistolary novel) and totally in Scorsese's wheelhouse and given how much time and effort he has put into making this right, there's no way its not going to be a great film. That said, I don't think it will win because its just way too intense and unrelentingly bleak.
Also, just for your predictions, if the book is any guide, Andrew Garfield is by a large margin the leading role. Adam Driver and Liam Neeson have about equal time, although Liam Neeson's role is definitely the more Oscary one, and given that even when his character is not on screen, he's sort of the MacGuffin that sets the plot in motion. That said, if its a huge success either critically or box office wise (and honestly there could going to be Christian groups going to this en masse, or at least they should, especially because its a far more interesting story than The Passion which they went to in droves) I wouldn't be surprised to see the actor who plays Kichijiro be considered for a nom, as he probably has the most narratively crucial and most interesting supporting male role.