Who will win or could win the SAG Awards?
Saturday, January 28, 2017 at 3:30PM Last year, the Screen Actors Guild Awards had a ready-made anti-Oscar narrative with a slate of winners that features colorful casts (Orange is the New Black) and Idris Elba as the supporting actor winner during the #OscarsSoWhite backlash. This year, there's no clear media narrative and SAG even has to make do without a Best Picture frontrunner since La La Land is understandably not up for their top prize (Outstanding Performance by a Cast... also referred to as "Best Ensemble" by many). So what will they choose this year? Who knows!
Viola has won four SAG awards, two for How to Get Away With Murder, two for The Help
We'll find out tomorrow night but what we're most looking forward to the lifetime achievement tribute to Lily Tomlin which will happily be presented by her 9 to 5 co-stars Jane Fonda and Dolly Parton. But back to predictions. Will Viola Davis win her fifth SAG in five years? Let's make the tough calls after the jump...
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
CASEY AFFLECK / Lee Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
ANDREW GARFIELD / Desmond Doss – “HACKSAW RIDGE”
RYAN GOSLING / Sebastian –“LA LA LAND”
VIGGO MORTENSEN / Ben – “CAPTAIN FANTASTIC”
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Troy Maxson – “FENCES”
Will win: Casey Affleck
Could win: Despite two Oscars, Denzel has never won the SAG Award. Theoretically that could help him but I don't think enough SAG voters will consider such trivia when voting. If and it's a big if, Ryan Gosling shockingly nabs this, expect a clean sweep at the Oscars. That means the film is unstoppable.
Should win: Denzel, Casey, Ryan, and Viggo are all so marvelous in their movies -- they all make my personal ballot.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
AMY ADAMS / Louise Banks – “ARRIVAL”
EMILY BLUNT / Rachel – “THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN”
NATALIE PORTMAN / Jackie Kennedy – “JACKIE”
EMMA STONE / Mia – “LA LA LAND”
MERYL STREEP / Florence Foster Jenkins – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS”
Will win: They can't award La La Land with their ensemble prize so the natural place to honor it is here with Emma's completely dazzling star turn.
Could win: Natalie Portman. Awards voters do love celebrities pretending to be other celebrities in true stories. There's also the outside possibility that Amy Adams wins which would surely be viewed as a reaction to her Oscar snub.
Should win: Natalie or Emma. It's a toss-up.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
MAHERSHALA ALI / Juan – “MOONLIGHT”
JEFF BRIDGES / Marcus Hamilton – “HELL OR HIGH WATER”
HUGH GRANT / St Clair Bayfield – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS”
LUCAS HEDGES / Patrick Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
DEV PATEL / Saroo Brierley – “LION”
Will win: Mahershala Ali, despite his Golden Globe loss, still has the heat. And what's more he has worked a lot in recent years in both TV and film so he'll have fans from both mediums voting for him.
Could win: Dev Patel, who seems very well liked in a movie with devout fans
Should win: Mahershala Ali
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
VIOLA DAVIS / Rose Maxson – “FENCES”
NAOMIE HARRIS / Paula – “MOONLIGHT”
NICOLE KIDMAN / Sue Brierley – “LION”
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Dorothy Vaughan – “HIDDEN FIGURES”
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Randi Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA”
Will win: Viola Davis
Could win: On the very unlikely chance that they feel they've awarded Viola enough (she's won 4 SAG statues in the past five years) Michelle Williams would seem the obvious runner-up recipient.
Should win: Since I consider Viola a lead, my vote would go to Naomie Harris or Nicole Kidman who both make my own ballot.
The Moonlight cast at the LA premiere
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
FENCES
HIDDEN FIGURES
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
MOONLIGHT
Will win: Given that SAG often views this prize as their "Best Picture" equivalent, it would seem likely that they'll choose Moonlight, which amazes most people who see it. Plus the actors are all marvelous but it's hard to separate them since the cast is tripled up given the time jumps in the narrative.
Could win: On the other hand, SAG is one of the most populist awards bodies and Hidden Figures is very very popular (and likeable). It might surprise.
Should win: Moonlight
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR”
“DOCTOR STRANGE”
“HACKSAW RIDGE”
“JASON BOURNE”
“NOCTURNAL ANIMALS”
Do they announce this one ahead of time? I've forgotten.
TELEVISION PRIZES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
RIZ AHMED / Nasir “Naz” Khan – “THE NIGHT OF” (HBO)
STERLING K. BROWN / Christopher Darden – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
BRYAN CRANSTON / President Lyndon B. Johnson – “ALL THE WAY” (HBO)
JOHN TURTURRO / John Stone – “THE NIGHT OF” (HBO)
COURTNEY B. VANCE / Johnnie Cochran – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
Will win: I'm going to go out on a limb -- is it a limb? -- and say Riz Ahmed
Could win: Either of the People vs OJ Simpson men
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD / Lacie – “BLACK MIRROR” (Netflix)
FELICITY HUFFMAN / Leslie Graham – “AMERICAN CRIME” (ABC)
AUDRA McDONALD / Billie Holiday – “LADY DAY AT EMERSON’S BAR & GRILL” (HBO)
SARAH PAULSON / Marcia Clark – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
KERRY WASHINGTON / Anita Hill – “CONFIRMATION” (HBO)
Will win: Sarah Paulson who is having her Temple Grandin year in which she picks up statues for what feels like 18 months or so...
Could win: It's just Sarah. She's a steamroller
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US” (NBC)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JOHN LITHGOW / Winston Churchill – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot Alderson – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
KEVIN SPACEY / Frank Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
Will win: John Lithgow because he's quite an awards magnet. Tonys, Emmys, Globes, SAG....
Could win: Kevin Spacey won last year beating surging Rami Malek and SAG does like to repeat itself.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
MILLIE BOBBY BROWN / Eleven – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
CLAIRE FOY / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
THANDIE NEWTON / Maeve Millay – “WESTWORLD” (HBO)
WINONA RYDER / Joyce Byers – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
Will win: Claire Foy with heat from her Golden Globe prize
Could win: Robin Wright has yet to take this prize and could be a sentimental favorite for her unsentimental role. On the other hand, if they're feeling anything like sentiment, welcoming Winona Ryder back would be "very".
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ANTHONY ANDERSON / Andre Johnson – “BLACK-ISH” (ABC)
TITUSS BURGESS / Titus Andromedon – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank Gallagher – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)
Will win: Anthony Anderson since Black-ish is now an awards favorite
Could win: Burrell, Macy, and Tambor have all recently won this prize and SAG likes to repeat
Should win: I mean... doesn't anyone want to hand Burgess a statue for his genius work on Kimmy Schmidt?
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
JANE FONDA / Grace Hanson – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
LILY TOMLIN / Frankie Bergstein – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
Will win: This is a really tough call, but I'll go with Julia Louis-Dreyfus who, despite her constant Emmy wins, doesn't usually win SAG
Could win: Uzo Aduba has won this prize for the past two consecutive years
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
THE CROWN (Netflix)
DOWNTON ABBEY (Masterpiece/PBS)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
STRANGER THINGS (Netflix)
WESTWORLD (HBO)
Will win: Common wisdom will say The Crown but let's predict a surprise and go with Stranger Things since SAG loves the cute kids.
Could win: Downton Abbey has won this prize three times and it's their last chance to reward the show. But it feels like it went off the air long ago, doesn't it?
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
BLACK-ISH (ABC)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK (Netflix)
VEEP (HBO)
Will win: Let's say that Veep gets its first prize in this category.
Could win: Orange is the New Black has won this for the past two years and Modern Family for quite a few years before that but both shows have lost heat, haven't they?
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
“MARVEL’S DAREDEVIL” (Netflix)
“MARVEL’S LUKE CAGE” (Netflix)
“THE WALKING DEAD” (AMC)
“WESTWORLD” (HBO)
Do they announce these ahead of time? Game of Thrones usually wins. But crossing my fingers for Westworld since Daredevil's stuntwork wasn't as amazing in season 2 as in its debut season.
Reader Comments (39)
Ryan Gosling is HORRIBLE in "La La Land". His nomination is probably the worst nomination for acting in this century (though Matt Damon in "Invictus" wasn't better).
So if he wins I'll be SHOCKED.
That being said I think that Affleck, Portman, Ali and Davis will win. And the cast of "Manchester by the Sea". And the stunts from "Hacksaw Ridge".
Should win: Washington, Portman, Bridges and Williams.
I'm Really pulling for Washington and Portman for SAG win. If nothing else, but to make the race more interesting on Oscar night.
HELL , why not throw Dev Patel and Michelle Williams some love. Wrenches for all!
I'd also love for Thandie Newton and Elie Kemper to find some love this season along with Titus Burgess.
Should win: Mortensen, Portman, Ali, Davis, cast of Moonlight
Will win: Affleck, Portman, Ali, Davis, cast of Manchester By the Sea
Could win: Washington, Stone, Patel, Williams, cast of Hidden Figures
Should have been nominated: Edgerton, Negga, Foster, Gerwig, cast of Hail, Caesar!
I think they really like Fences and giving Washington an overdue win in the category feels correct. Davis and Ali are locks with SAG. I feel Stone is a lock with Portman as a spoiler. Moonlight will, could, and should win the Ensemble prize. I don't care much about the TV categories because they're slower than the Emmys to recognize the best on television.
I don't think anyone is a lock except for Viola. Living in LA and being friends with many actors/SAG voters I consisternly hear the following-like sentiment -
- the actors in LA LA Land can't sing or dance. Why didn't they cast people who were better suited for the parts .. there are thousands of us out there
- Ali does what he is supposed to do beautifully - but he is barely in it, and does he do anything other than what the script asks from him?
Everyone has had their screeners for the past month and are slowly watching the films at home. The potential problem is that there has been all this hype for months - when we finally see movies such as Moonlight, LA LA Land, etc, they are inevitible a let down. Or the performances are a let down. There is too much hype. All that to say, just from talking to my friends, I don't think there are any locks (that's a fabricated concept created by journalists, bloggers, etc).
The Winners Washington undeserved,Stone undeserved,Bridges undeserved and Davis FOR THE WRONG PERFORMANCE.
My Choices
Mortensen,Adams,Grant,Davis in a weak field
The 2 supporting actresses in Christine with Rebecca Hall were better by miles than this uneven top 5.
Davis FOR THE WRONG PERFORMANCE
Would you prefer she were nominated for Suicide Squad?
Stone and Gosling gave two of the best star performances of the year. Devoid of mannerism and the kind of self-seriousness we so often see these days and working on their respective movie star personas as they light up the screen. However slight it may appear to some naysayers, it's some major work. You don't see enough of these type of performances these days, and I'm really glad they both got recognized for such work.
I predict Ryan Gosling will win best actor. The love for La La is so real, they'd want to give it more than one award. The film has become a huge hit since the noms were announced and people like to validate popular choices. Besides there's the matter of the nominating committee vs. the whole membership, they might want to rectify the ensemble snub and give La La more than one award.
Thoughts on Nicole never having won SAG, despite the 8 noms?
I really want Williams over Davis. Hope to see that at least at SAG awards.
guest - hear hear.
Nat: I'd argue Bryce Dallas Howard is POSSIBLE over Paulson for that SAG Trophy. Her work in that episode of Black Mirror is a powerhouse, even in the face of Black Mirror's hamfisted approach.
Stone and Gosling will win. Rooting for Viggo.
Would you prefer she were nominated for Suicide Squad?
Yes 'cos at least she did something different to her nominated roles,same tears,same runny nose,same role,same roles different era .
"Stone and Gosling gave two of the best star performances of the year. "
Yeah, well, the problem is that Gosling can't sing, can't dance and can't act (at least now - his last good role was in "Blue Valentine").
Stone was OK and worse performances have won Oscars but she surely isn't THE BEST actress of the year. Actually: she's probably the weakest of the nominated actresses so... ('probably' because I haven't seen Blunt)
The period pieces Viola Davis is participating in for awards recognition won't have much in variation in costume design, hairstyling, and character agency since race and gender are the things then that would hold her characters back. And again since these black women of a bygone era still represent the struggles black women face today regardless of the progress one can point to. Your insistence she's giving the same performance is reductive.
@Mark Gordon UK
I also can't wait for LILY TOMLIN!!!
The four acting winners here most definitely will repeat at the Oscars. Unless there are surprises like last year with Elba. Hopefully for Adams! But please no Gosling.
Manchester by the Sea also has a big chance to win at best ensemble imo.
VEEP must win comedy ensemble. I mean that is hands down the best and funniest cast I have seen in a series. lol
In another note: RT @Someone. Stone is the weakest nominee, at least Portman actually gives a great performance. But I couldn't be angry if Emma wins the Oscar. They do love their ingenues.
I would personally be thrilled if Ryan Gosling won, mainly because this type of role never wins men awards (but often wins women awards) and if it were so easy to pull off the romantic leading men with such aplomb then there would be many more A list movie stars. But Gosling doesn't have that many peers who can do what he does.
someone -- i feel bad for you with how many good movies you are missing out on. Gosling is one of our very best actors and though his dancing isn't Old Hollywood perfect he moves with natural grace (unlike Emma Stone, whose lines are really sloppy) and sharpness and his voice is just as pleasant to listen to as anyone's who isn't embarrassing themselves when they sing. His voice is even a bit like Gene Kelly's.
/3rtful & mark -- i also diagree that Viola is giving the same performance. Yes, her nose runs when she cries but Julianne Moore's face also scrunches up the same way each time she cries. It doesn't mean the characters aren't different. Davis's volcanic rage in the big scene in Fences is much different than the more timid anger in The Help or her measured, making the most of a terrible situation compromise in Doubt. I think they're very different performances.
I see Nat what your saying,I don't know what it is about this particular role winning the Oscar,it's just not revelatory to me.
Who will NOT win (every year when I post my ballot as a voter here, I remind fellow readers that it's rare for more than 1/3 of my choices to win):
MALE ACTOR/MOTION PICTURE
Denzel Washington
FEMALE ACTOR/MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams
MALE ACTOR/SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali
FEMALE ACTOR/SUPPORTING ROLE
Michelle Williams
STUNT ENSEMBLE/MOTION PICTURE
Doctor Strange
CAST/MOTION PICTURE
Moonlight
MALE ACTOR/TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Sterling K. Brown
FEMALE ACTOR/TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Audra McDonald
MALE ACTOR/DRAMA SERIES
Sterling K. Brown
FEMALE ACTOR/DRAMA SERIES
Thandie Newton
MALE ACTOR/COMEDY SERIES
Jeffrey Tambor
FEMALE ACTOR/COMEDY SERIES
Lily Tomlin
STUNT ENSEMBLE/TV
Westworld
ENSEMBLE/DRAMA SERIES
The Crown
ENSEMBLE/COMEDY SERIES
Veep
Again, not predictions, but my actual ballot.
Paul why aren't you a participate in the Viola Davis sweep to Oscar?
Viola Davis is just so damn beautiful.
Similar to Nathaniel, Portman is in my top 5 but Stone just missed out so of the ladies nominated here, Portman is my #1.
I'm resigned to Stone winning the oscar but don't want her to sweep all the major awards (she'll win the Oscar anyways; too bad Bening did not take the globe).
Globes - Huppert (drama), Stone (comedy)
SAG - Portman
OSCAR - Stone (i'm resigned)
BAFTA - Adams or Portman
@ /3rtful
Davis hasn't been sweeping the precursors, and with good reason: she's in the wrong category. If she had been nominated in Leading here, I would have voted for her, not only because of the quality of the performance, but because neither Huppert not Bening are among the competition. As things stand, I went with Adams.
I'm gonna switch the win of Manchester & Fences. Jus bcos Washington & Williams has been nom for so many times w/o any win, SAG might wanna make up to them, also they are both the runners up in their cat...Beside Davis alr have 4 SAG awards!!! & she's gonna take the Oscars, so i hope they will spread sum wealth to some other deserving actress too (Can u believe Adams & Kidman, despite numerous nom, never won a SAG!!!)
My predictions:
Will Win: Stone, Washington, Williams, Ali, Moonlight
Should Win: Stone, Gosling, Williams, Ali, Moonlight
Could Win: Adams, Affleck, Davis, Patel, Hidden Figures
A reason not to bet on Moonlight: too many actors in the ensemble that are a) unknown, b) novices, c) young. Fences, Manchester and Hidden Figures seem more logical. Captain Fantastic is not guild-unfriendly either. (And I voted for Moonlight, never a help.)
Gosling has a chance to win SAG and Oscar. Casey Affleck has bad energy.
Emma for both as well. I was so-so about La La Land but people seem to be highly enamored of it, like The Artist.
Viola is unstoppable.
Rooting for Gosling and Stone. Superb performances from both. I do think Gosling's work in The Nice Guys was better. He's had a great year.
Someone - I understand that there're some critics that never connects with Ryan Gosling as an actor (though I would say most do) but I'm baffled by some of the can't act statement when he's delivered some great work over the years in Half Nelson and the Believer. He rarely gives the same performance twice and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But he's talented, though if you're not a fan before I'd argue that this is not going to win you over.
I do wonder if some of the discontentment towards the singing and dancing has to do with the type of music (i.e. non stage adapted, non disney). They're no Fred and Ginger in that department, but Gosling in particular made good use of his rather limited range in the few songs that he had and I think they worked, for most people that enjoyed the film anyway.
Overall I do think one has to venture back to the 60s or 70s to find two outstanding star musical performances like these. I don't think he's going win as Affleck has pretty much swept every critics awards in sight.
Davis hasn't been sweeping the precursors
Only televised precursors matter with Oscar.
After watching Lion I am rooting for Nicole - I love how expressive her eyes are, you can always feel the internal struggle and the pain her characters feel + it is a traditional supporting role. I hate the fact that we will have a category fraud two years in a row, this steals the chance from supporting actresses to shine.
People complaining Ali is not in Moonlight enough to warrant a win? That's why it's called SUPPORTING. This is the problem with category fraud; everyone starts thinking you have to have the screen time of a co-lead to warrant a win. Ridiculous. Screen time does not equal an impactful performance.
"Gosling is one of our very best actors"
I liked him before he met Refn. He was good in "Half Nelson", "Lars and the Real Girl" and "Blue Valentine". But since "Drive" he's just awful in everything he does. He actually ruined "LLL" for me - if there was anyone else in this role I suppose that I liked this movie much more.
"People complaining Ali is not in Moonlight enough to warrant a win"
Yeah, but the best 'supporting actor' in "Moonlight" is Rhodes and among the nominated guys Bridges and Grant (SAG) or Shannon (Oscars) are much more deserving of recogniiton than Ali.
Davis is very good but Williams is much, much better. She has less screen time than Ali in "Moonlight" bud does with this time much, much more and should win every award this season. Easily.
I'll keep on saying this until Oscar season is over: Viola Davis=NOT a supporting performance / Michelle Williams=BRILLIANT supporting performance ...
Am I the only one who was not bowled over by Williams in Manchester? She's a distant fourth (ahead of Spencer) among the nominees.
Anyway, can't wait for Ali, Stone and, hopefully, Gosling (or Washington) to snag SAG.
Stone will win but if Portman is winning anywhere, it'll be at SAG. Usually it is her & Huppert fighting it out for the complex technical portrayal vote against Stone with the charming populist perf in the best picture front runner.
At the oscar, the complex technical vote will be split between Portman &Huppert and Stone will win easy.
At SAG, since Huppert is not a nominee, Portman chances improve ALOT but La La Land is such a juggernaut, Stone may still win.
Mareko. I feel the same way. Michelle Williams is my least favorite performance in the supporting actress nominees this year (though i do think it's a strong category overall)
Mmm. I keep wondering if I missed something, but her big scene (and even her scenes leading up to it) just didn't really do anything for me.
Now I do (mostly) enjoy Williams as an actress, mostly, and thought she was enormously affecting in Brokeback Mountain, Wendy & Lucy, Blue Valentine, and Take This Waltz. But this performance? Not so much (ditto Certain Women, in which her part of the tryptich was by far the weak link).