Every Oscar Chart Updated!
Thursday, November 30, 2017 at 7:00PM 
Oscar voters don't begin voting for quite some time still but precursors season is off like a shot: we've already had the Gotham Awards, the Spirit nominations, the NBR and NYFCC announcements and the Directors Guild of America got their nomination ballots this week, too. They generally come close to matching Oscar's eventual list and in ye olden times of 5 wide categories they were considered the single best predictor for the eventual Best Picture nominees. We pray they choose wisely this year. It'd be so great to have a female director in the shortlist this year, wouldn't it? (hint hint)
In case you've missed various posts like Adapted Screenplay confusion, the diverse director field, and the deep best actress & supporting actress bench, please to know that every Oscar prediction chart has been revamped. Some new text, some fresh images, and definite shifts in ranking. Read them and weep or rejoice depending on whether your favorites are predicted or not.
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SCREENPLAYS | FOREIGN FILM | VISUAL CATEGORIES | AURAL CATEGORIES | ANIMATED AND DOCUMENTARY CATEGORIES
Oscars (17), Punditry
Reader Comments (42)
Thank you for the work you do, Nathaniel!
Did Supporting Actor update? It still has October 29th at the top, so I was curious. I think that fifth slot in Supporting Actor is the hardest one to call this year, which in a perfect world would mean a lot of people cited, but I fear a 2009-style march from a really interesting race to group-think.
Darkest Hour and Shape of Water are not a formidable as you suspect.
You have Jamie Bell in both categories,how is he being campaigned,they owe from 2000,
To echo John T, is Supporting Actor updated? I think Armie Hammer's shot up to at least third in this race behind the two locks, with Stuhlbarg and Rylance in 4/5 slots as of now.
Supporting Actor is truly the most wide-open race as of now as well - the shortlist seems to have tentatively narrowed to 7-8 names in the other races thus far, while this one seems 15 deep.
you missed one: you're still predicting all the money in the world for make-up due to kevin spacey's creepy old man prosthetics. turns out they didn't need the make-up after all
par, turns out they definitely didn't need makeup to make Spacey look creepy.
JOHN T & PAR & EVERYONE -- SORRY THIS POST ORIGINALLY WENT UP TOO EARLY BEFORE I WAS FINISHED. *NOW* EVERYTHING IS UPDATED.
Philippe le Sourd should win (hands down) for The Beguiled - some of the most exquisite
cinematography I've ever seen -
too bad it was in service of such an inconsequential movie.
Is that why you've put it under Long Shots?
Is this the year of the overdue?
Oldman, Janney, Dafoe, PT Anderson and James Ivory in Screenplay, Deakins...
I'm really hoping Sufjan Stevens is nominated, and with the expected love for Call Me By Your Name he should be swept along. Both songs are deserving, but since Visions of Gideon figures so strongly during the movie's powerful last scene, I think that may be his best ticket.
I still feel like Ronan is the frontrunner right now, but whatever. Isn't it interesting that you had Shape of Water as a lock before, but now it no longer is? For some reason people aren't really connecting with the film. It was good when I watched it, but it didn't really resonate with me for some reason.
Agree Get Out it's the default frontrunner. Close behind Lady Bird (it's an actual hit!). CMBYN, regretfully, will suffer the Moonlight hangover syndrome, even though it's a total different film.
The Academy has checked out "gay theme" whatever it means for them at large. Although I would replace either Gerwig or Guadagnino for Joe Wright. In no way DH it's better than Atonement, even though technical nominations and Oldman are more than probable. FTW? That ship has sailed with Dunkirk. Indifferent B.O doesn't help.
Speaking of which, don't be fooled by the actual tally Dunkirk and Shape of Water will get. In these times, accumulation means nothing. But in the Gravity, Life of Pi scheme of things, could spell Best Director easily.
Three Billboards? Well liked by audiences. But too harsh for elder members of the Academy. Divisive.
I have a feeling The Post will be one of those which will get the big tally numbers, too.
In the end, like happened the past three years, the small, affectionate one will get away with it. Assuming that CMBYN boxes has been checked out...
It's a Battle Royale between Get Out and Lady Bird. Whichever wins Origibal Screenplay first.
Watch out for Florida Project (to get a nomination). Newest members of the Academy already showed devotion for it. Will it be enough?
I've not F*** idea about Mudbound. Is it any good?
PS: I swear I'm not Jeff Wells.
I really hated when American Sniper was the last minute surprise and the Oscar voters threw all those nominations at it, snubbing Jake Gyllenhaal for his best performance EVER in the process.
But this year i'd LOVE Michelle Williams to be the surprise fifth nominee in the best actress category, if All The Money is a big hit.
Williams is such a rare, precious actress, and even if her My Week With Marilyn nomination wasn't deserved, she's always interesting to watch (even in OZ if you ask me...). I'd love so much to see her onstage some day, it really must be something ...
Nathaniel, thanks for everything you do! I think your Tier 3 should include The Disaster Artist and I have a feeling about All the Money in the World. It comes with this great narrative of Ridley Scott responding immediately and pulling off the impossible. If the movie is good, it could crack in. It seems strange that Lady Bird still isn't in Tier 1. I know you have your doubts that it's genre isn't important enough for older voters, but I think it is safe after this week.
I think Julia Roberts should jump up to Tier 2. Lionsgate had a strong year last year and I think they will be able to translate Wonder's incredible box office into a nom for Roberts. Heck, if they follow the Blind Side playbook, they might even go for a Best Picture nod.
My hope is that Molly's Game does great business and people will want to reward it's stars. Jessica Chastain deserves another nod (I just saw Miss Sloane) and I swear this is the third year you've had Idris Elba in Tier 2 with the line "Everyone loves him. Eventually he'll be nominated." THIS year he should be nominated! This category is wide open!
Nat, I counted 11 nominations for The Shape Of Water but on the tally it's at 9.
Get Out, Lady Bird, Call Me By Your Name, The Post, The Florida Project are on their way up while Dunkirk, Three Billboards, Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya need to make some noise very soon. A bit of surprise Willem Dafoe, not Gary Oldman, who steamrolling. And how about..Timothee! Thanks Nathaniel, so much fun reading yours oscar chart.
Love seeing Timothee move up. I think Gyllenhaal is losing steam to Franco. I think Diasster Artist is third next to Mudbound and CMBYN in screenplay.
For song I think The Star and Mudbound should be in Tier Two. A Beauty and The Beast song (days in the sun isn't campaigning - evermore and how does a moment live forever are) should be in Tier One. And either Stand Up For Something, the Cries from Syria song or Truth To Power.
I kept thinking about your charts on my drive home. Bob Odenkirk should definitely be in your Tier 2. If Shape of Water doesn't receive some attention next week, I think Richard Jenkins drops down with Odenkirk taking his place. And I think Christopher Plummer should be on the charts somewhere. If the role is good, they will want to honor the way he stepped in to replace Spacey.
We pray they choose wisely this year
PFEIFFER will be nominated for MOTHER!
I agree that Franco is moving up. If The Disaster Artist does well this weekend - and I think it well, as the audiences I'm with always react favorably to the trailer - I think the Best Actor nominees are fairly solid, Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Franco, and Hanks.
I also agree that Odenkirk is moving up. A lot of critics' tweets identified him as one of the best parts, if not the best part, of The Post, and he has been front and center promoting the movie.
Franco might even take LA critics.
Just another "Thank You!!!" for all of your hard work, Nathaniel, and #TeamExperience
I still think you are nutso to have Get Out a lock for screenplay and tier 1 for picture (as much as I hope you are right!)
Is Coco a vote siphoner of any kind in PIcture, or must it have even stronger box office to pull beyond the animation category?
I sooooooo want Daniel Kaluuya in... I'd even be happy with him bumping my beloved Jake.
Is it just me or is supporting actor really up for grabs? Other than Dafoe and Rockwell (and maybe Armie) I don't know if it's clear who the GGs / SAG / BAFTA will nominate and after that we'll get a clearer picture there.
I have a horrible feeling that Gyllenhaal is going to miss out again this year. Kaluuya, Hanks, and Franco are really coming on strong.
Everyone says the same thing every damn year about certain films being "quiet" and needing to "make some noise" and "omg where are there?!?" and then all the critics groups and organisations that do nominations start appearing and its like "oh, right, everybody is thinking the same bunch of people like they do every year"
'Is this the year of the overdue?... Janney,'
Excuse me? Alison Janney is overdue? For what, DROP DEAD GORGEOUS?
Christian Bale has finally entered your chart. I hope, HOPE that he will be one of the top five. Same with Rosamund Pike in supporting
Quit trying to make The Shape of Water happen! lol
I hate The Shape of Water SO MUCH
Glenn Dunks - Do you still think Timothee Chalamet will never get nominated?
Today, my votes will be:
PICTURE: Call me by your name, The Post, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out!
DIRECTING: Nolan, Del Toro, Gudagnino, Gerwig, Baker or McDonagh
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Lady Bird, Three Billboards, The Florida Project, The Shape of Water, Get Out or Phantom Thread or The Post
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Call me by your name, The Disaster Artist, The Lost city of Z, Mudbound (the way to recognize Netfllix), Blade Runner 2049
ACTOR: Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Franco, Bale
ACTRESS: Streep, Ronan, McDormand, Hawkins, Winslet
S. ACTOR: Stuhlbarg, Dafoe, Hammer, Plummer, Rockwell
S. ACTRESS: Pfeiffer, Janney, Spencer, MetCalf, Haddish or Pike
Original song: Call me by your name twice, Murder on the oriente express, Coco, A Ghost Story
Glad to see you finally recognize that Lady Bird is likely to be a major contender in at least a few categories (go Saoirse!). But I totally get where you're coming from: the Academy can be so ridiculous about female-driven movies. Happily, it would seem that the movie's popularity & excellence are undeniable at this point.
I love these Actress choices by Jon.
My choices so far for Best Actor would be:
Hugh Jackman in "Logan"
Ryan Gosling in "Blade Runner"
Daniel Kaluuya in "Get Out"
Harry Dean Stanton in "Lucky"
And one other
I think Wonder's box office is going to make it the sleeper awards contender of this season. It should be in the top tier for Best Makeup at this point, especially; that seems like a category it could easily steal from Darkest Hour, even.
I would LOVE Pike to get more attention for Hostiles, and she absolutely could. Fingers crossed.
Jack, no and I will gladly eat my words. But I also think this year's best actor race was dramatically weaker than expected.
Glenn - I clearly see your point cause Meryl the best elements of The Post is number 3 or 4 for many critics best actress contenders while Tom the secend best in the movie is high at 2 or 3. But because it's weak I see both Timothee and James Franco chances. I just wish these two get nominated.