BAFTA's Oscar Predictions... er, Nominations. BAFTA's Nominations!
Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 8:29AM by Nathaniel R
The BAFTA nominations are in and, what do you know? There is no difference whatsoever in which 8 or 9 films each awards group watches each year! One longs for a utopia where each major organization longs to shout their own identity out to the world (in some ways we are what we love) rather than just predict the Oscars but in our current dystopia, people in the industry -- no matter which country they live in! -- only watch 9 movies a year before voting.
Here are the nominees with commentary...
Best film
- BlackkKlansman
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
In the bygone years of five nominations only for Best Picture at the Oscars the race looks like it would be down to 7 films now, these 5 above as well as Black Panther and (ugh) Vice. In fact, having 7 nominees only at Oscar this year wouldn't surprise us at all given how dominant those 7 films appear to be. It makes sense that Panther and Vice would be the two to fall out with BAFTA since they're surely more resonant in America...
Outstanding British film
- Beast
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- McQueen
- Stan & Ollie
- You Were Never Really Here
The Favourite gets the annual "both lists" plug but it is interesting to see a documentary make the list. There are six nominees -- Guy Lodge informs us that this one is half juried. So a panel selects three entries and the general voting population of BAFTA selects the others. It's pretty easy to see which is which!
And yes this means Bryan Singer got a nomination this awards season.
Bryan Singer gets a BAFTA nod. Yikes. pic.twitter.com/oPgZrxXaHL
— Guy Lodge (@GuyLodge) January 9, 2019
Leading actor
- Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
- Christian Bale - Vice
- Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
- Steve Coogan - Stan & Ollie
- Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
The only uniquely British inclusion for the British Academy is Steve Coogan in Stan & Ollie. This is a reminder that the fifth slot at the Oscars is still very much in play and we still believe passion votes (you have to have #1s) will give it to Ethan Hawke for First Reformed.
Leading actress
- Glenn Close - The Wife
- Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Olivia Colman - The Favourite
- Viola Davis - Widows
Viola Davis, surprise! And, as with Best Actor this serves as a reminder that the fifth slot is very much in play. Mary Poppins Returns apparently just didn't make a splash within the industry so Emily Blunt will have to wait another 12 years for that first Oscar nomination she deserved 12 years ago. Another noticeable exclusion: Even though BAFTA embraced Roma and BlacKkKlansman, notice that their leading actors did not make the corresponding lead lists.
Supporting actor
- Adam Driver - BlackkKlansman
- Mahershala Ali - Green Book
- Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell - Vice
- Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
40% leading actors! This appears to be the Oscar list (it's the exact same list as the Globes), give or take Sam Elliott. And I can't believe we have to say "or take" because he absolutely deserves to be there. If there weren't so many Category Fraud inclusions each year, there would be room for the great character actors! GRRRRRRRRRR
Supporting actress
- Amy Adams - Vice
- Claire Foy - First Man
- Emma Stone - The Favourite
- Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots
- Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
40% leading actresses. Same list as SAG but for Claire Foy in place of Emily Blunt's leading role in A Quiet Place. Despite missing SAG and BAFTA we don't think Regina King, our Globe winner, is in trouble and we suspect that it's Robbie and Foy fighting for that fifth slot even though we have to wonder what happened to the great Elizabeth Debicki in Widows (besides Category Fraud crowding her out, of course) and Nicole Kidman this year, who seemed to be in both lead and supporting conversations just a couple of months ago.
Director
- Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
- Paweł Pawlikowski - Cold War
- Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
- Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
- Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Oooh, some intrigue. This list is MILES better than what the Directors Guild of America came up with. Here's hoping that the Lanthimos and Pawlikowski inclusions suggest that it's Farrelly and McKay who are vulnerable in best director and not anyone else.
EE Rising Star Award (voted for by the public)
- Jessie Buckley
- Cynthia Erivo
- Barry Keoghan
- Lakeith Stanfield
- Letitia Wright
We previously discussed this category here. I'm rooting for Erivo. You?
Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer
- Apostasy - Daniel Kokotajlo (writer/director)
- Beast - Michael Pearce (writer/director), Lauren Dark (producer)
- A Cambodian Spring - Chris Kelly (writer/director/producer)
- Pili - Leanne Welham (writer/director), Sophie Harman (producer)
- Ray & Liz - Richard Billingham (writer/director), Jacqui Davies (producer)
Ray & Liz was well liked on the festival circuit but hasn't opened in the US yet. And Beast made a much bigger splash in the UK (given its awards presence here and elsewhere over there) as opposed to here in the States where it earned $800,000 at the arthouse box office this past summer. The other three are new titles to us so we'll have to investigate.
Film not in the English language
- Capernaum
- Cold War
- Dogman
- Roma
- Shoplifters
Italy's Dogman, which took Best Actor at Cannes, missed the finalist list for the Oscars this year but the rest of them might well become nominees at Oscar.
Documentary
- Free Solo
- McQueen
- RBG
- They Shall Not Grow Old
- Three Identical Strangers
McQueen and They Shall Not Grow Old did not make the Oscar finals but the rest were major box office hits and are also expected to become nominees.
Animated film
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Since they only have 3 nominees in BAFTA (which is all they should really have at the Oscars, given the small amount of movies eligible) this is a reminder that these are the only three films that could actually win the Animated Feature Oscar. I know people think that Into the Spider-Verse has the win locked up but I think it's still a fight, because Oscar loves Pixar most (they've won 50% of the Oscars in the category) and Wes Anderson is still Oscar-less.
Original screenplay
- Cold War
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- Vice
Good showing for Cold War at BAFTAs. Interesting that Vice managed so many nominations but not Best Film
Adapted screenplay
- BlacKkKlansman
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- First Man
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- A Star Is Born
Color me surprised that A Star is Born keeps making writing lists. As you know, I love the movie, but I suspected that the writer's branch would give it a pass with so many other more "writerly" options (like Leave No Trace) out there as well as other adaptation options that lean populist (Crazy Rich Asians, Black Panther). Note: Death of Stalin was ineligible here, since it was nominated last year but IS eligible for the Oscars this year.
Original music
- BlackkKlansman
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Isle of Dogs
- Mary Poppins Returns
- A Star Is Born
Great to see BlacKkKlansman makes this list because Spike Lee's main composer Terence Blanchard has still never been Oscar nominated! BAFTA doesn't differentiate between songs and score which is why A Star is Born is here.
Cinematography
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- Cold War
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Roma
Okay. So. Bohemian Rhapsody (sigh). Newton Thomas Sigel, Bryan Singer's regular DP, has never been Oscar-nominated despite great great work in his filmography in films like Refn's Drive, Russell's, Three Kings and Singer's X2. And he did have to briefly take over the Directors chair on that movie when Bryan Singer went AWOL on set so one feels for him because surely that shoot was a nightmare. But still. It remains insane that this is the movie that has risen up so strongly for awards. When was the last time a production this troubled, with such a clearly fictional self-flattering point of view about real history (hi surviving Queen members), did this well?
The longwinded point is this: Sigel is talented but if we're talking the shooting of concert scenes, Matthew Libatique's work on A Star is Born, which was excluded, is pretty great.
Costume design
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Mary Queen of Scots
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is a wildcard in the Oscar race, and not just in this category. It *technically* qualifies for the Oscars but, unlike Roma, which got a lot of media attention for its itty bitty theatrical race, this surely feels more Netflixy and thus more TV to some voters. But Oscar loves the Coen brothers so we'll see.
Editing
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Roma
- Vice
Sigh. no comment
Production design
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Roma
How many times does Stuart Craig need to be nominated for doing Potterverse films? He's been nominated for 9 BAFTAs for the 10 Potterverse films, winning 2 of them just for this series alone. How many times is enough? I'm asking for a friend, who is me, who doesn't want movie awards to become Emmy Awards which is a real possibility in our current franchise world.
Make-up and hair
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Mary Queen of Scots
- Stan & Ollie
- Vice
The only one of these that didn't make Oscar's 7 film wide finals is The Favourite. But Oscar only allows 3 nominations and it's competitive.
Sound
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- Mission: Impossible - Fallout
- A Quiet Place
- A Star Is Born
Unlike their American counterparts BAFTA doesn't let the sound people have two separate awards.
Special visual effects
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Black Panther
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- First Man
- Ready Player One
Fantastic Beasts didn't make the 10 wide finals for Oscar's Visual Effects so this can't be the Oscar list. But the fifth slot (if First Man is truly in there which we're not certain of) is a wide open competition. We knew all along that Black Panther would sail in to a nomination on its popularity but it's kind of a shame because the visual fx are one of its weakest elements in terms of craft since some other departments were just killing it. That final battle sequence between Killmonger and Black Panther is soooo rubbery. It's too early to pour one out for a snub but I feel for Ant-Man and the Wasp which I'd argue has the best fx of a Marvel movie this year and it's surely the one that Oscar will skip just as BAFTA did.
British short film
- 73 Cows
- Bachelor
- The Blue Door
- The Field
- Wale
British short animation
- I'm OK
- Marfa
- Roughhouse
Outstanding contribution to British cinema
- Stephen Woolley and Elizabeth Karlsen (Producers. Their credits, together or separately include: Carol, Colette, The Crying Game, Youth, Mrs Harris, Ladies in Lavender, The End of the Affair, Interview with the Vampire and more...)
Reader Comments (100)
Suzanne thanks for the catch. That's hilarious.
Sawyer, agreed.
Listen. I love Regina King. She is excellent in IBSCT, but she ain't winning that Oscar now. Not without Bafta and Sag noms - they're not trivial. As a combo, they are pretty damn important. She may well get the nomination, but there is going to be someone else delivering those 2 crucial speeches right when Oscar voters are choosing their winner. And that won't be King now. It is Stallone all over again.
From Here to Eternity also had 3 Leads nominated - Lancaster/Clift and Kerr, but not in the same category like Mutiny on the Bounty or, potentially, The Favourite.
I suspect the SAG will go to Adams and the BAFTA will go to Weisz, Foy or even Robbie. I'd put money on Weisz of those choices.
If that happens (very 2007 spread of wins) then King's not much worse off to win because she's so popular and the timing feels so right. But if Adams wins both she may be in trouble.
I just don't really see Adams taking SAG and BAFTA. Maybe SAG will even throw a curveball with Emma Stone or (lol) Emily Blunt.
evangelina--I was talking about Regina getting the nomination. I don't know if she will win, but I suspect she will. And this is much different from Stallone. He lost because he is not well-liked. But Regina is beloved in the industry.
NATHANIEL - Oh, true! I didn't know if the question was whether three in one single lead category have ever been nominated.
Evangelina - since 2000 (roughly when BAFTA started their "Oscar Predicting" years), there is no precedent for a Regina King win at this point.
The only person to win without SAG is Marcia Gay Harden, who was a late-season bloomer like Lesley Manville last year, plus she was not BAFTA-eligible.
The only BAFTA-eligible Oscar winner in the category to miss a nomination has been Melissa Leo (Amy Adams did get nominated for the same film though!)
So she'll make history if she gets that statue (which, for the record, I hope she does)...
What would be especially worrying in any other year is that we have evidence of King not placing in the Top 5 of either voting body with the biggest member overlaps with Oscar (though SAG has the rumoured screener issues). Luckily, she won at the Globes so has been especially visible to voters this week. Plus the category beyond the fraudulent Stone and Weisz is a wasteland of “non-passion picks”, so she and Amy will be just fine, especially as Regina is a “passion pick” for people…
*Trivia*
Rachel Weisz does not have a BAFTA win to her name (she was placed in Leading by the committee in 2005 because they didn't have enough submitted contenders for their longlist, then lost to Witherspoon - true story!) So I'm predicting her to take this one...
brookesboy - She's not much loved by Sag or Bafta, that's for sure. And there is an Oscar crossover. It's a shame and I think she will get the nominations but I think that'll be the end of the road for King. Ksrmot, I agree: my money is also on Rachel Weisz.
I find the Robbie late surge inclusions more interesting than the lack of Regina,IBSCT is just not being embraced,Nat had trouble with it,agreed Vice is not the film to give Adams an Oscar for and they have Close in the overdue category,Foy/Robbie/Blunt/Cardellini are up for 5th spot and I think Blunt ends up with it.
Lead Actress 5th spot Collette will surely have passion voters same with Kidman a performance actors will embrace or maybe Yalitza,Blunt maybe but some people really hated her in MPR.
Another puzzling omission is Elliott he does a lot with little screen time TRULY supporting the leads and I do believe as someone else stated it's to do with Lead roles being thought of as supporting and it would've been gr8 for Stone,Ali or Chalamet to say so and change things,one big voice is all it takes.
Regina King is beloved in the industry. People are underestimating how the Academy voting body is changing by the year. It takes someone like Regina King to win an Oscar without other precursors to set a new precedent.
Viola Davis is another one who has been visible all year. When lackluster nominees start falling through the cracks, someone beloved like Davis can easily grab a fifth slot on good will alone.
Hopefully these snubs of Regina King and Ethan Hawke have the effect of highlighting how terrific they are in the minds of Oscar voters.
Has Paramount even launched BSA campaign for Blunt in A Quiet Place since the surprise SAG nom?
How exciting would it be, purely from a prognostication standpoint, if Regina won without a SAG or BAFTA nod? Maybe it's time to let the old ways die.
Who else and how many in the past have won a supporting acting GG but weren't nominated for both SAG & BAFTA?
Suzanne, it would be more exciting if there was a different winner at every awards and then it'd be a real nailbiter.
Isn't supporting actress 60% lead instead of 40%? I haven't seen Mary, Queen of Scots, but I assumed from the trailer that the two queens are co-leads.
evangelina - Right? Imagine if Bale won BAFTA, Cooper won SAG and Hawke won BFCA (BFCA is probably too obsessed with Oscar predictions to let that happen, though).
Robbie is prominently featured in trailers but she has fewer scenes than you'd expect,Ronan is the Lead and much stronger in it.
Wow! Alfonso Cuarón got 6 personal nominations: Film, Foreign Language Film, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing! (Editing is shared)
I wonder if he will be so lucky at the Oscars.
The Marcia Gay Harden comparisons aren't even remotely apt. It's night and day.
MGH went into Oscar night with a NYFCC award, a Spirit nomination (she lost) and a NSFC runner-up citation. Literally nothing else. Glitter and Jesus, as Monique Gay Hearten would say.
Films can absolutely have three leads and of the same gender - Three Men and A Baby anyone? ;)
Hayden, when was the last time a Globe winning performance with no SAG and BAFTA citation went on to win an Oscar?
Evangelina, precedent is there to be broken, just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it won't ever happen. It used to be that a film can't win Best Picture if it didn't have a corresponding Best Editing nomination (since 1980) but that spell was broken with Birdman.
Evangelina—I can't tell you the last time it happened (but I'm sure you can tell me—maybe never!).
I can also say Regina King is likely to be the first, if that's the case. This will be a very silly hill to have fought so hard on when Oscar night arrives. Then we'll have a new set of "unbreakable" rules to defend.
Looking at SAG & BAFTA noms for supporting actress in the last couple decades (not sure how far each even awarded in this category before 1994), there have been no other actresses who've won the Globe and weren't nominated for either the BAFTA or SAG. Some have missed one of those, but not both. Therefore, Regina King has ALREADY done something unprecedented.
Laurie Metcalf must be bummed Lady Bird didn’t come out this year.
Sorry guys but I feel you are talking yourselves into something nprecedented (unlikely), which is fine! But if this was Joe Boggs, even Aaron Taylor Johnson, it'd be clear as day. But of course anything can happen so I will eat my words if she wins. I hope she does, but I strongly fear she will not.
@evangelina Perhaps that's true. The combination of many critics prizes along with the GG are something Johnson didn't have, as well as the fact that King's top competition (Adams) hasn't actually won anything yet. Well, actually, Amy won KC.
Evangelina - we all know that SAG and BAFTA have a strong actor member overlap with Oscar, which is what makes missing the first two and actually winning the third seem impossible.
HOWEVER
In the case of Regina King, we also know that there were screener issues resulting in a lot of voters not seeing it - as a precedent, Million Dollar Baby bombed at the 2004 BAFTAs when its late screeners arrived a couple of days before the nominations voting deadline.
So, it's possible that she would have made it if screeners were readily available. Or maybe that's rumour and she won't win the Oscar. Or mayne it's rumour and she'll still win due to tje topsy-turvy competition this year. We'll see.
Either way, as Suzanne mentioned, the times when Oscar "rules" are shattered and rewritten are the times I most love the Oscars.
Hayden & evangelina -- the last time someone won the Oscar without SAG or BAFTA nominations was Marcia Gay Harden for POLLOCK (2000) -- and she didn't even have a Globe nomination, let alone win, so it has happened before. I think Regina King is in good shape still.
Let's also not count out the Beale Street factor. For whatever reason, the Brits did not take to the movie. But AMPAS could very well adore it, and if so, that will help propel Regina.
Do you guys think Glenn Close will win here, too?
Will Regina King be Beale Street's only win come Oscar night? Her performance alone makes no sense as the only competitive place to acknowledge the movie. Jenkins deserves to clench a second win in adapted. Although I wouldn't mind Into the Spider-Verse being the alternative. But since animation never gets that love of crossover passion I'll stick with Barry till the end.
If Adams needs to win Critics Choice alongside SAG and BAFTA to be a clean victory over King. Any spread the wealth between other nominees from these three precursors won't give us anything unexpected come Oscar night. Also, the overdue narrative for Adams has everything to do with inflated nod count. Supporting Actress is her category too for those who would prefer she someday wins in Best Actress since this will be her fifth nod there. So all the premature talk of Octavia Spencer being the modern day Thelma Ritter is a not so with Amy Adams always being reliable for recognition in supporting.
@Tyler: I'd be surprised if Coleman doesn't take BAFTA, but then again I didn't think Close would take the Globe either.
I'll believe in a Glenn Close win if she takes BAFTA. Otherwise I still think Colman has the edge.
I think the story will be told on SAG night, BAFTA Is pretty much irrelevant in that race.
I am in the minority when it comes to Viola Davis. I just dont like it. I really dont care about her as a performer
There are several ladies that really need that boost into Academy consideration like Carey Mulligan, Rosamund Pike, Emily Blunt, Toni Collette
I am also so sad to hear that the very talented Elizabeth Debicki was overlooked yet again
3rtful: Early in the game, I was one of those who said Octavia Spencer was the modern Thelma Ritter. But I did not say that strictly because of how often she was nominated for Best Supporting Actress. I was thinking of her sense of humor, the way she uses facial expressions, her deadpan delivery and also her warmth. And, yes, of course, the number of BSA nominations. Amy Adams only fits the mold as regards number of nominations.
For Best British Film, I think they changed the rules a couple years back so that there are always 6 nominees with three determined by full membership vote and three by committee.
I keep reading that King is "beloved in the industry," but the fact that SAG has never nominated her for any of her three-time-Emmy-winning TV work may suggest otherwise. BAFTA, as we know, is historically averse to many, many POC (notably American actors like Washington), but with Ali and Davis nominated this year, it's not as if #BAFTAsSoWhite can be a thing.
Anyway, Weisz actually *is* lead in The Constant Gardener so her category placement at the BAFTAs in '05 was right on point. She certainly seems primed to win a BAFTA this year.
Mareko, I am glad you said it because this Regina King is beloved and untouchable thing was perplexing me.
kermit, sorry to break the bubble but Beale Street was one of the early screeners sent to BAFTA and the majority of Annapurna screeners were sent to SAG.
I remember "Straight Outta Compton" doing a LOT to sugarcoat the histories of N.W.A., particularly surviving members and producers Dr. Dre and Ice Cube. Total precedent there with the remaining members of Queen and "Bohrmian Rhapsody."
Viola Davis? Over Emily Blunt? Stunning! Get that fifth slot, Yalitza!
Matthew Libatique has his own criminal conduct to deal with right now. He won't be nodded for anything for "ASIB."
Prayer circles for Regina King! That race is done if SAG and BAFTA pick the same winner.
Looks like "Green Book"''s goose is cooked. Awardswatch just nailed a big, fan Italian nail into its Oscar hopes lol.
Methinks Bohemian Rhapsody is definitely doing as well if not better than Black Panther. It doesn't have a director nomination for obvious reasons, but it does make editing here.
The SAG awards don't have supporting categories for TV actors, so all male or female performances in that particular field are stuffed into one category. And she was a supporting actress in her show (barring the recent one).
So that doesn't suggest she isn't beloved.
If Margot Robbie gets an Oscar nomination, that will have to be one of the weirdest nominations ever, right? Particularly when her co-star has the more acclaimed performance.
Wasn't particularly impressed by Julia Roberts in Ben is Back, and frankly I really dont think she's that good an actress when not doing romcoms. Now that her starhood has waned, it's harder to get nominations
@Mike, I don't think 'Where is Kyra' was released at all in the UK, but it might be released this year . It was barely released in the US too --1 or 2 screens at most. It would be eligible for BAFTA for 2019.
I don't think the studio had any money to promo it, and Michelle isn't much into doing promos herself, and the movie itself really isn't that good outside of her acting. The best acting performance in the world is of no use if hardly any of the judges get to see it :(
It's a shame - her acting performance really deserved a nomination. I do wish some criticssocieties outside of Gotham had nominated it. Hopefully this experience doesn't discourage Ms. Pfeiffer from doing more Indie work.
armk & mike -- the main problem with WHERE IS KYRA geting any traction was that it was a difficult "art" movie so it needed all the promos it could get and the rumor was that the director and Pfeiffer did not get along and subsequently Pfeiffer didn't support it at all. She didn't go to the Sundance premiere and didn't really do anything for the movie, only hitting the press for antman and the wasp. If all you have to sell something is the star and the star isnt interested it's a problem. So with a miniscule gross ($59,000) there was frankly no way it was happening. It's kind of a miracle she even got that Gotham citation. But she didn't show up for that either.
She's a mean bitch.