Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
Saturday, January 11, 2020 at 6:36PM The 92nd annual Academy Awards are almost upon us. They're just 29 days away at this writing. We'll have the official Oscar charts back up for you as soon as is humanly possible once the potentially exciting event has occurred on Monday (they're coming down now to prep for Monday's unfurling). But until then, it's time to make final predictions.
BEST PICTURE
The sure things: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, 1917. That's six titles that we can't imagine missing on Monday morning given their success to date in precursor awards and with critics and the public. The extremely probable: Marriage Story. The only reason we've begun to worry is that there's been virtually no traction for Noah Baumbach in Best Director which suggests that people have reduced the movie to "an actor's showcase"... but then where was the SAG Outstanding Cast nomination? It's likely in but if there's a shock omission Monday morning...
The big maybe: From there it gets MUCH trickier to predict. In the end we think Little Women is in 8th place. It's cresting at the right time and it fills a story void that the other Oscar contenders this year are mostly quite terrible about filling (the lives of women... you know, um, 50% of the earth's population!!!). If there's a ninth nominee? Whether or not there will be 9 nominees is unknowable but history suggests it's not unlikely since we've had either 8 or 9 nominees ever year of the new voting system. Of the vaguely plausible candidates, Knives Out feels the most "right now", The Two Popes the most crowd-pleasing, The Farewell the most deserving, and Ford V Ferrari the most old school pleasureable. If there's a ninth we're predicting Ford V Ferrari.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sure things: Scorsese, Mendes, Tarantino, and Bong Joon Ho can all feel secure. Their movies have done very well in precursors and, Mendes aside, they each have almost fanatical fanbases with cinephiles and, we think we can safely assume, within the directors branch too. Mendes doesn't need a fanatical fanbase since he's pulled off such a showy DIRECTOR'S ACHIEVEMENT style movie. The probable contenders for slot five? If you're putting money on your predictions you would be wise to stick with one of these three: Taiki Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) has the DGA nomination, Todd Phillips (Joker) has the buzz, and Greta Gerwig (Little Women) has the internet rooting for her and could become the social cause within the director's branch if they don't want to hear another round of "you only nominate men!" anger.
Longshot Maybe the rushed season has us thinking crazy but we think the fifth spot will be more of a surprise. Director used to go hand-in-hand with Best Picture but they've been fighting this decade... going through their own Marriage Story, if you will. (Yes Baumbach could still happen for slot five). Pawel Pawlokowski (Cold War) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) are proof under the new voting systems that you can still be the "lone wolf" Best Director nominee even if you don't have a film vying for one of the now nearly doubled Best Picture spots. A week ago I had a fantasy/hallucinatory faith that the recipient would be Celine Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) who is easy to imagine with #1 votes, and not due to her gender though that wouldn't hurt. But we think NEON slept on that movie for too long and misjudged with that peek-a-book qualifying release. Film bros and other cinephiles seem to be rooting for the Safie Brothers (Uncut Gems) and that's also not outside the realm of possibility, as gross as that is to yours truly (I hated the movie). Because of our indecision and because no prediction has felt "safe" we're going to stick with Pedro Almodóvar (Pain and Glory) as the lucky surprise yes AND wishful thinking candidate. We'd be more confident if Tarantino and Scorsese weren't also fighting for 'look at this film that is also sort of about the end of my career!' style votes but it is what it is. So we're predicting Pedro while admitting that our rational headspace is screaming "Phillips" even though it will be very weird to have a Scorsese rip-off competing with the real thing.
BEST ACTRESS
Sure thing: Renée Zellweger, for Judy. Yes it's only her. And how weird is that? There are about eight women that feel like they're still in the running for a nomination so none could possibly be "locked" right? For fun here'd how I'd rank them in terms of PREFERENCE based on quality of performance NOT predictions:
I'd rank the still-standing 8 like so in terms of quality of performance
- Nyong'o, Us
- Johansson, Marriage Story
- [TIE???] Theron, Bombshell / Woodard, Clemency
- Zellweger, Judy
- Ronan, Little Women
- Awkwafina, The Farewell
- Erivo, Harriet
PLEASE NOTE: That top five is not my best actress ballot but more on that soon with the Film Bitch Awards.
Safest? Scarlett Johansson, if she wanted it more, could be the only real spoiler for Zellweger's second Oscar. Meanwhile you should never doubt the power of playing beloved figures in biopics so Cynthia Erivo is probably safe, too, even if there's little evident passion for that movie out there in the industry. A bloodbath for spots four and five: Precursors suggest that Charlize Theron is in and we're going to agree... even if Bombshell isn't particularly well-liked by critics. She's been working hard for the nomination, she's a major movie star who hasn't been nominated in way too long, and Oscar voters are routinely impressed by "transformations" of actor to real life figures. We think the final spot is actually a deadlock war between Lupita Nyong'o and Saoirse Ronan in Little Women. Lupita got the SAG nod and Saoirse the Globe nod and both films are hits. Saoirse has the advantage of being very recent but isn't Little Women's ensemble feel (Jo isn't quite as centered as she usually is) and this being a remake going to work against her? Though Oscar's genre bias is a definite obstacle we think Lupita, who received a terrific campaign (thanks Universal) is going to squeak this one out by a hair with the help of #1 votes becaus the performance is incredible. Is this wishful thinking? Possibly. We won't be surprised either way though.
BEST ACTOR
Sure thing: Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix are the only true locks. From there I'd literally call everyone else about even (and no, I'm not exaggerating). Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) has the prestige but a small foreign-language film, Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) has the right now enthusiasm but an annoying character, Taron Egerton (Rocketman) has the hardest working campaign but an early release film, Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio both have the advantage of headlining a Best Picture frontrunner even though it's hard to imagine either with a ton of #1 votes, Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name) and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) both have the advantage of being in widely available enjoyable funny movie while also being significantly underrewarded through their careers. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) has the advantage of being Christian Bale. I've honestly never been more confused about Best Actor predictions in my life.
So... gun to head: The precursors have been kindest to Leo but I've had a hunch he'd be left out all year (a break after that exhausting overdue campaign for The Revenant) so I'm sticking with that hunch and saying: Banderas, DeNiro, and Bale ... though honestly no combo would be surprise me (unless Driver or Phoenix were missing)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sure Things: Laura Dern, Jennifer Lopez, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie
Fifth Slot: This race feels more sewn up than the others. I think the last spot goes to Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit, a film Hollywood likes and has actually seen. Though wouldn't it be lovely see Zhao Shuzhen surprise for The Farewell?
Long Shots: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Annette Bening (The Report) still feel like distant possibilities if Oscar feels contrarian this year but the precursors have mostly agreed.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sure things: Brad Pitt and Joe Pesci are all locked up.
And Probably Al Pacino is in too. Unless The Irishman underperforms -- if it's going to do so we might know early with a Pacino surprise omission. We were going to assume that Tom Hanks was in the fifth slot and not at allk safe but the Golden Globes Cecil B DeMille speech and the fact that he's a celebrity playing another celebrity and historically Oscar voters are rarely unimpressed with that trick all probably spell safe.
Fifth Slot Bloodbath: For a long time we though Anthony Hopkins would prevail with The Two Popes gainingmomentum but then the momentum seriously stopped. For a long time we hoped Alan Alda (Marriage Story) or Tracy Letts (Ford V Ferrari) might factor in as rare *actual supporting actors* in the supporting catgory but their campaigns didn't seem to gain traction. Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) and John Lithgow (Bombshell) all feel like viable dark horse possibilities but we think Parasite's ever growing fanbase might just portend a rare foreign-language nomination for Song Kang Ho.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Sure things: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Probably: Knives Out
Fighting for the fifth slot: This could go anywhere. Maybe Pain and Glory (crosses fingers), maybe Bombshell (if LA loves it more than NYC does), and the smart money is probably on The Farewell. though we're predicting a complete shut out for that beautiful movie (cries). So the guess is Uncut Gems which is going to score somewhere (argh!!!) so maybe it's here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sure Things: Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Little Women
Probably: (sigh) Joker
Fighting for Fifth Slot: Here's where we think The Two Popes actually lands a nomination though we're rooting for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood to score and Hustlers to come from nowhere (not really -- it's right there, people!!!) to kick out Joker.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Sure things: Parasite (South Korea). And that's it.
Probably: Pain and Glory (Spain)... but we can't ever forget the shock and pain of Volver being stiffed at the last minute. What a tragedy that was in the foreign category.
And Maybe: Les Miserables (France), Beanpole (Russia), and Corpus Christi (Poland)
We'd Like to See: Atlantics (Senegal) but maybe it'd be a little too out there for Oscar?
ANIMATED FEATURE
Sure things: Toy Story 4, Missing Link,
Probably: Frozen 2 but there are a lot of sequels this year. We're guessing it's either Frozen 2 or How to Train Your Dragon 3 that scores but not both. Is that crazy? Three sequels in a field of five sounds insane.
Going Out on a Limb: and say too more obscure films, critical favourite I Lost My Body and Klaus both land nomination.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Sure things: NONE. The Documentary Branch has proven time and time again that they don't believe in locks.
Our guesses: One Child Nation, Apollo 11, American Factory, Honeyland, For Sama
But spoilers abound so maybe we shouldn't doubt The Cave or Maiden?
COSTUME DESIGN
Sure things: Dolemite Is My Name, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other guesses: Rocketman, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit
But watch out for: Joker, 1917, Downton Abbey
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sure things: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other guesses: Joker, Ford V Ferrari
Fifth Slot Guess: Common wisdom suggests The Irishman but we're going to go with The Lighthouse
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Sure things: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other guesses: The Irishman, Joker
But watch out for: Anything might happen here including Jojo Rabbit, Aladdin, Ad Astra, Little Women but we're going to riot if it's not Parasite.
FILM EDITING
Sure things: Ford V Ferrari, The Irishman
Other guesses: Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Joker
But watch out for: It will be a total travesty if Parasite misses but we're guessing it will. Another distinct possibility that we should probably predict but are going to take a wild guess on is that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood misses.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Sure things: Bombshell only.
Other guesses: Rocketman, Judy, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
But watch out for: Dolemite is My Name, Maleficent Mistress of Evil
VISUAL EFFECTS
Sure things: Avengers Endgame, Star Wars Rise of Skywalker, The Lion King
Other guesses: Alita Battle Angel, The Irishman
But watch out for: We really don't want the bad de-aging of The Irishman get in so wouldn't you rather see 1917 or Terminator Dark Fate there?
ORIGINAL SCORE
Sure things: 1917, Little Women, Joker
Other guesses: Ford V Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit
But watch out for: but watch out for Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn, or Star Wars Rise of Skywalker since John Williams rarely misses and we can't believe we're predicting that he will.
ORIGINAL SONG
Sure things: "Stand Up" from Harriet, "Into the Unknown" from Frozen
Other guesses: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" from Rocketman, "Glasgow" from Wild Rose, "I'm Standing With You" from Breakthrough
But watch out for: "Spirit" from The Lion King or "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from Toy Story 4
SOUND MIXING
Sure things: Ford V Ferrari, Joker
Other guesses: Rocketman, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
But watch out for: The Irishman, Apollo 11, Toy Story 4, Rise of Skywalker
SOUND EDITING
Sure things: Ford V Ferrari,
Other guesses: Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Avengers Endgame, The Irishman
But watch out for: 1917, Toy Story 4, Rise of Skywalker, Apollo 11
ANIMATED SHORT
Our Guesses: Dcera (Daughter), Hair Love, Kitbull, Uncle Thomas: Accounting for Days, The Physics of Sorrow
But watch out for: He Can't Live Without Cosmos, Hors Piste, Memorable, Mind My Mind, and Sister
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Guesses: Fire in Paradise, In the Absence, Learning to Skate in a War Zone (if You're a Girl), St Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha
But watch out for: After Maria, Ghosts of Sugar Land, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers, Stay Close
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Guesses: Brotherhood, The Christmas Gift, Little Hands, Miller & Son, Refugee,
But watch out for: The Neighbor's Window, Nefta's Football Club, Saria, A Sister, Sometimes I Think About Dying
Reader Comments (55)
I still think “Speechless” from Aladdin will get a nom
Hi Nathaniel , What about Kidman ? Can she be the surprise ?
The structure in flashbacks in Little Women only benefits Pugh in terms of awards. She's the one who "changes". I think Lupita and Erivo are in.
There was room for Mary Kay and Alfre and their studios didn't use it. It's so frustrating.
Robbie for Bombshell or for playing Sharon Tate? I love her scenes watching herself at the movie theatre.
I would absolutely cry from JOY if Song Kang Ho gets a nomination!!!
This must have been exhausting to write, but it's so incredible. Thank you, Nathaniel!
Like you, I hated Uncut Gems, along with Sandler’s performance, and still cannot get the love it is getting.
Your predictions are almost the same as mine.
I still think di Caprio is getting nominated over de Niro. I honestly think he and Adam Driver were the best last year.
A Woodard nomination would be amazing, but I don’t see it happening. Theron and Erico for me are the weakest in terms of performance.
Will be pretty sad if Zhao Schuzhen doesn’t get nominated for supporting actress, but I feel your picks are spot on. God forbid, it’s not Nicole Kidman for a lackluster performance in Bombshell. I still have the feeling she will make it over the more deserving Pugh, Schuzhen, and Annette Bening.
Currently predicting the Bombshell ladies don't get nominated and that Saoirse Ronan and Lupita take best actress with Shuzen takes supporting from Robbie vote splitting.
I love when we can't bring ourselves to be 100% dispassionate in our predictions (will happen vs. should), but then, that's how surprises happen — voters rebel from narratives and vote their hearts en masse.
Here are mine in case just for prosperity's sake (copied from twitter hence the need to condense it down):
Film: Irishman, Jojo, Joker, Little Women, Marriage, 1917, Once Upon, Parasite
Dir: Bong, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino, Waititi
O Screenplay: Farewell, Marriage, Once Upon, Pain and Glory, Parasite
A Screenplay: Beautiful Day, Irishman, Jojo, Joker, Little Women
Actress: Erivo, Johannson, Nyong'o, Theron, Zellweger
Actor: Banderas, DeNiro, Driver, Egerton, Phoenix
S Actress: Dern, Johansson, Lopez, Pugh, Robbie (Bombshell)
S Actor: Hanks, Pacino, Pesci, Pitt, Song
International: Atlantics, Beanpole, Honeyland, Pain and Glory, Parasite
Documentary: American Factory, Apollo 11, The Cave, Honeyland, One Child Nation
Animated: Abominable, Dragon 3, I Lost My Body, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
Costume: Aeronauts, Dolemite, Jojo, Little Women, Once Upon
Cinematography: Ford, Joker, 1917, Lighthouse, Once Upon
Editing, Apollo 11, Ford, Irishman, Once Upon, Parasite
Art Direction: Irishman, Joker, 1917, Once Upon, Parasite
Make Up/Hair: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent, Rocketman
VFX: Alita, Avengers, Ca(ts?)ptain Marvel, 1917, Star Wars
Score: Jojo, Joker, Little Women, Marriage, 1917
Song: Frozen, Harriet, Lion King (Spirit) Rocketman, Wild Rose
S Mixing: Avengers, Ford, Irishman ,Joker, Once Upon
S Editing: Avengers, Ford, Irishman, 1917, Once Upon
Anim short: Dcera, Cosmos, Hair, Sister, Uncle Thomas
Doc short: After Maria, Learning to Skate, Nightcrawlers, St Louis, Walk Run Cha Cha
Live Short: Brother, Miller, Refugee, Saria, Sometimes
I think it's interesting you're predicting "Parasite" for Production Design but NOT Editing. I think it will get in Editing more easily than Production Design.
Fingers crossed for Nyong’o, Woodard, De Niro and Banderas.
How crazy would it be if ScarJo gets snubbed in BOTH categories? lol
Next week is certainly going to send the internet into overload when someones fave is left out,crossing fingers for certain people in each acting category Eddie Murphy,Alfre Woodard,Tracy Letts & Kathy Bates.
My fantasy sees The Farewell hitting out of nowhere with the Oscars. Just imagine Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay just popping out seemingly out of nowhere. I'm sad that I can't even imagine Lulu Wang making the Best Director cut in my fantasy world, but it is what it is.
Again best performances are being ignored: Mary Kay Place The Girls from the amazing Booksmart and Brittany runs a marathon if I add Charlize to this line up I have my dream ballot!
I’m picking Sciamma to get in for Best Director. Risky but I think it might just happen.
I think that Almodóvar Will be the biggest surprise with Pain and Glory in eight nominations (Picture, directing, writing, actor, sup actress, original score, international, production design)
Laura Dern will be nominated for Little Women
Margot Robbie will be nominated for once upon. A time or lost the nomination
Only make up for bombshell
Two international films nominated for beat picture too (almodovar and bong joo. Ho)
How to train your dragon with two nominations or more (sounds, animation, production design)
I remember how much it stung when nomination morning Ethan Hawke and Toni Colette weren't nominated last year, I'm expecting the same for Antonio Banderas and Lupita Nyong'o. Oscar gave a clear message last year when both critical darlings were shut out, no matter the precursor love.
Those locks for best picture are overwhelmingly bro-heavy (give or take a Parasite). Marriage Story had better make it! And how about The Farewell and Little Women for the final spots? And Knives Out at least has a lead woman. I don't suppose Us or Booksmart have a shot, but it's a shame we're not discussing them along with Two Popes, Ford v. Ferrari, and Uncut Gems as possibilities.
I have this feeling that Awkwafina sneaks in.
Actor: DiCaprio,Driver, Egerton, Phoenix, Sandler
Egerton is good but this year Banderas and Murphy are both more deserving.
Actress: Erivo, Johansson, Nyong'o, Theron, Zellweger
Sup. Actor: Dafoe, Hanks, Pacino, Pesci, Pitt
Supp. Actress: Bates, Dern, Kidman, Lopez, Robbie{Bombshell}
Not a big fan of "Bombshell" on the whole but, contrary to most reviews, I thought
Kidman (in a beautifully shaded performance) was its MVP. And I wouldn't be
surprised if lots of Oscar voters wanted to include her.
Dern is much better in Little Women than she is in Marriage Story... I agree Jay.
Praise the lord and howl at Buddha. Please eliminate DiCaprio and make room for more deserving nominees come Monday. This is the only thing I'd ask for all year. DiCaprio doesn't need any more nominations. That ex-Oscar should be his retirement ticket.
GUT feelings this year Oscars won't be too white since there's numerous notable performances from all colors.
I think people are underestimating the score for "Us". Michael Abels has been showing up in nominations and the music is a big part of what works bout the film.
Everyone is underestimating Egerton, not only for the nomination, but also for the win.
My no guts no glory pick is that someone from the KNIVES OUT cast gets in.
Why do I have the nagging suspicion that Lopez misses for Hustlers? God I hope I am wrong.
"How crazy would it be if ScarJo gets snubbed in BOTH categories? lol"
It has happened before! *cough 2003*
Right now, I'm just praying for J.Lo. Scott Feinberg and Anne Thompson are predicting snubs for her.
Leo was the best thing about the overrated Once Upon a Time in Hollywood so I hope he gets in. Not really understanding why the exhausting overdue campaign has relevance here when that was over 4 years ago and he doesn’t act frequently. I think some people are grasping at straws. Why would De Niro be nominated over him when he hasn’t shown up anywhere and seems to generate the least passion out of The Irishman actors? Bale is really going to get another filler nomination?
Bet against Taron Egerton at your own risk. He won the Golden Globe, is nominated for SAG and BAFTA, and is playing the one thing the Academy can't seem to resist... a real-life musical icon (and it just feels wrong not to nominate him when Rami Malek won last year for an inferior, superficial performance as another musical icon).
JJ : yes she can. Scott Feinberg is predicting her to get in for Bombshell. He's also predicting Kathy Bates to get in over Lopez.
I think that Banderas misses, but Pain and Glory's score is nominated.
I have the wild hunch that Catchy Song (which I love) is going to be nominated, for The LEGO Movie 2
Also, all my senses are screaming both Scorsese, de Niro and Pacino are going to be left out.
I also really hope Lupita is nominated, but I have such doubts. It’s going to be hard for her to overcome the genre bias. Us is not accessible in the way Get Out was, and I fear it was forgotten by the time Oscar voting rolled around. The Globe and BAFTA snubs don’t help her as well, although she has the critics on her side. It’s possibly the performances of the year, easily the best performance of Lupita’s career, so it would be a shame if she misses out.
I fear a Zellweger snub. If not I’m not confident she will get the win. I’d like it, but everyone (her3 especially) despises the very thought. Maybe voters have a similar sentiment unless it’s just contrarian corner here.
My predictions:
Best Pic
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
1917
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Ford v Ferrari
Alt: Knives Out
Best Director:
Bong Jong Ho
Quentin Tarantino
Sam Mendes
Martin Scorsese
Greta Gerwig
Alt: Taika Waititi
Best Actress:
Renee Zellweger
Scarlett Johansson
Charlize Theron
Saoirse Ronan
Lupita N'yongo
Alt: Awkwafina
Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Driver
Taron Egerton
Leo Dicaprio
Antonio Banderas
Alt: Christian Bale
Best Supp Actress:
Laura Dern
Margot Robbie
JLo
Florence Pugh
Scarlett Johansson
Alt: Zhao Shuzhen
Best Supp Actor:
Brad Pitt
Joe Pesci
Al Pacino
Tom Hanks
Song Kang Ho
Alt: Anthony Hopkins
Adapted Screenplay:
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
The Two Popes
Joker
Alt: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Org Screenplay:
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Knives Out
The Farewell
Alt: 1917
International Film:
Parasite
Pain & Glory
Les Miz
Atlantics
Those Who Remained
Alt: Beanpole
Documentary:
Apollo 11
Honeyland
For Sama
American Factory
One Child Nation
Alt: Maiden
It may be wishful thinking but I think Actress will be Renee, Charlize, Scarlett, Saoirse and Lupita.
The Academy will not want to face BAFTA-style criticism. I think Murphy, Woodard, and Nyong'o all will get in, and Erivo will get her recognition in Best Original Song. And that's as it should be.
If anyone ever deserved a spot on merit, it is Celine Sciamma.
Steve, I completely agree. Egerton is obviously a serious threat.
In addition to the best pic films skewing male, there’s only one story that isn’t about white people. Screenplay as well.
As I only care for actresses:
B.Actress: Johansson, Nyong'o, Ronan, Theron, Zellweger
B.Sup.Actress: Bates, Dern, Pugh, Robbie, Shuzhen
We'll see what Santa Oscar brings. I'd like to see some shocking surprises. Good and bad.
Aaron — I really want ScarJo to get a nomination, because she should already have several nominations at this point in her career. BUT I did not particularly care for either of her awards performances this year, especially her overacting in MARRIAGE STORY. I know a lot of people loved her in that, though, so I can’t see her missing in Best Actress.
Luke — Yes, and Egerton may just go and take the BAFTA, and if that happens, I think he’s got like an 80% of winning the Oscar, too. It’s a flashy, good performance in a musical biopic playing a living legend (Oscar loves such performances), he has campaigned more than anyone and is completely charming along the way, AND he might be the only Brit in contention for an awards body with lots of Brits. He’s still gotta lotta life left in him in this race.
My crazy best actress take is that if Lupita gets in, she’s gonna win. I just do not think the passion or narrative is there for Zellweger.
I'd be shocked at this point if Almodóvar were nominated for Director. Yes, Pawlikowski made it last year, but we knew the industry loved that film, as it performed really well at the BAFTAs. What is the indication that the industry loves Pain and Glory?
I posted a similar comment on your last set of predictions, but... there have never been fewer than 4/8 or 5/9 BP nominees with corresponding Best Actor or Best Actress nominations. Right now, you're predicting The Irishman, Joker, and Marriage Story will get nods for their lead actors (and actress, in the case of Marriage Story)... plus Ford v. Ferrari, if it gets in. It's logical that DiCaprio or Ronan would be nominated as well.
It feels as though Ronan is pretty secure. She won AACTA which is a significant industry precurser. And it's hard for me to imagine the Academy nominating two black women in Best Actress when their films are not really contending in other categories (yes, I know Erivo is a likely Best Song nominee).
DiCaprio should make it as well. I don't see any evidence that people are tired of him (it's been four years since that campaign for The Revenant), and the film will probably be the nomination leader and BP winner. It's hard to imagine that he would be omitted from that sweep.
I have a feeling Tarantino might be snubbed in Director!
Wouldn't be Oscar time without making a wild prediction - Jamie Foxx surprises with a Best Supporting Actor nom.
Picture: OUATIH, Parasite, The Irishman, 1917, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Little Women, Ford vs Ferrari
Director: Tarantino, Scorsese, Mendes, Bong-Joon Ho, Almodóvar
Actress : Zellweger, Theron, Johanson, Ronan, Erivo
Actor : Phoenix, Driver, DiCaprio, Egerton, Banderas
S. Actress : Lopez, Johanson, Dern, Robbie, Pugh
S. Actor : Pitt, Hanks, Pacino, Pesci,Kang Ho
Original Screenplay: OUATIH, Marriage Story, Knives Out, Parasite, The Farewell
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, The Two Popes, Joker, Little Women
For BA, I am not feeling Charlize, Scarlett, Sandler or DeNiro.
Crazy things my intuition says:
Almodóvar in BP, Directing, International and Screenplay + Actor, Sup. Actress, Score and one tech category
Best Actress be: JLo - Awkwafina - N'Yongo - Mary Kay Place - Reene or Charlize
Eddie Murphy + Banderas + Zhao + Snipes + Cruz + Waititi + Song remembered in acting
Mendes + Scorsese + Bong + Almodóvar + Gerwig or Sciamma in directing
Ok, help me understand the love for The Farewell. I just watched it last night, was expecting to really like it after all the advocacy I'd seen here, and I just didn't get the acclaim. It is a nice film, Wang's direction is very natural and the score was my favorite element. I am curious how many have seen it on DVD. I would argue it does NOT play well at home. The subtitles are very tiny and very difficult to read (white text often on a light background) Nai Nai speaks so fast there were several times I didn't finish the last several words of the subtitles before they moved on the next line of dialogue. I LOVE foreign films, but I struggled so much squinting to read the subtitles in this one, often stopping and rewinding to get the last few words, it left me very little room to look up and appreciate the nuances of the performances. Thought about giving up, it was such an unenjoyable experience, but I stuck with it. 24 hours ago, I thought Awkwafina could sneak in. Now I'm thinking anybody watching a screener is not going to include her or Shuzhen. Did anyone else struggle with the subtitles on this one?
Gutsy predictions:
- Charlize out Alfre in
- Sciamma in Scorsese out
- Willem Dafoe in Pesci out
The writing is the worst thing in the bad movie that is Hustlers. It was stuck between black comedy, crime caper and weird female empowerment thing and absolutely failed at all of them. The actual story might have made a good movie but the writer/director delivered a stinking mess. Hate to see it nominated anywhere but seems like Jlo will get in. Please let that be it or I might be done with the Oscars finally.