Chart Updates - All Acting Categories
Friday, January 3, 2020 at 5:47PM 
Is it us or are the four of the acting races murkier than they usually would be during the week of Oscar voting? We chalk this up to a bit less precursor uniformity between Critics Choice, Globes, SAG nods, and the regional critical consensus. On the other hand that regional critical consensus has been very pronounced with a clear lineup of winners that go like so: Parasite/Bong Joon Ho / Nyongo / Driver / Dern / Pitt. But what we're dealing with right now is the nomination game which is far more complex than "who wins".
BEST ACTRESS - Six women are still very much in the mix and it's quite difficult to guess who will be left out. Passion suggests that Cynthia Erivo or Charlize Theron would be in danger of the "snub" but on the other hand you're not often the snubbee if you're the one doing the biographical role... especially if there's mimicry. For now we've opted to have Saoirse Ronan be the odd woman out but that doesn't feel right either given the very current groundswell of love for that picture. At any rate we think it's between the six listed on the chart with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) and Awkwafina (The Farewell) staring to look like impossible dreams in this final decision week...
BEST ACTOR - This race is even more confusing with TEN men still very much in the conversation. A lot will come down to passion votes which means that Bale (Ford V Ferrari), Pryce (The Two Popes) and Murphy (Dolemite is My Name) for example aren't exactly out of the mix even if they haven't performed spectacularly well in precursors. It will also come down to the films themselves (as acting races often do -- Best Picture heat counts for so much, whether or not it should in the acting races) which means that DiCaprio and DeNiro, for example, can't be discounted regardless of the fact that they don't feel like #1 choices for a lot of people because the films are so strong going into balloting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Here's the one race that feels the most "set"... though even here there is room for mystery. Is Florence Pugh really going to get nominated or is she more of an internet enthusiasm? Will Scarlett double dip? In the latest update we're saying yes on both counts because there just hasn't been that much volatility in this category. Or what volatility there has been feels anomalous (Annette Bening and Kathy Bates Globe nominations dont seem to have revved up those campaigns).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Another category that feels settled but we suspect isn't. Is Hanks really safe? He's been here this close before and suddenly not shown up. Is Hopkins safe? He did well in the precursors but without Pryce (who has a super competitive field to fight through) it would seem like an odd nomination. So we've opted to split the difference and predict a huge get for NEON with a nomination for Sang Kang Ho from Parasite.
Reader Comments (48)
I thought we had 7 Actress contenders (Awkwafina might win the Globe after all), but I don't believe she is gonna get nominated either. And as much as I would like to see 2 women of color nominated the same year, I don't want this to happen at the expense of Ronan.
I'd be so happy for a Song Kang-ho nomination even though I think of Parasite as more of an ensemble piece where no individual player shines above the rest. He's richly deserved (and gotten... at least abroad) the recognition for so long in stuff like Memories of Murder, The Host, Thirst and A Taxi Driver.
I’d love for Florence Pugh and Sang Kang Ho to slip in! Would be a great win for both an established legend and an upcoming powerhouse.
I’m also feeling a Song Kang-ho nomination. I think Parasite might just end up with even more nominations than most people are expecting.
I can only speak to my experience at a Little Women screening at a theater that often has voter screenings right outside of NYC. People were raving about Florence Pugh's Amy above everything else. I haven't seen this level of enthusiasm surrounding one performance leaving a screening at this theater since Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men. I don't know if Pugh will win, but she's standing out and Little Women is peaking at the right time.
I actually think Pugh will get in but not Saoirse Ronan for that reason. I heard a lot of "that actress playing Pugh is amazing; I mean, Jo was good, too, but Amy. Oh my god. Amy," in many varieties.
For context, this is the theater where I saw a screening of Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close right before the voting period started and listened to people raving about the film and Max Von Sydow as they sobbed leaving the theater. I recognized some of those same people a the Little Women screening championing Florence Pugh.
Basically, I'd bet money of Pugh making the cut above any other actor in that film.
Actress : Zellweger, Theron, Johanson, Nyongo, Ronan
Actor : Banderas, Phoenix, Driver, DiCaprio, Pryce
Supporting Actress: Lopez, Dern, Robbie, Pugh, Johanson
Supporting Actor: Pitt, Pacino, Pesci, Hopkins, Hanks
I’d be totally happy with The Two Popes snubs and acting noms for Parasite!
I feel like Supporting Actress is going to have one of Bening or Bates. They're respected, clearly have fans in the Academy, and I just don't think they're going to double dip with ScarJo. However, I cannot tell which one it would be-Bates is in the bigger film, Bening is more due, and so I get the urge to not include either even though I think at the end of the day one of them makes the cut. Bates has to be cursing the person who did submissions for the SAG Awards, as if she'd made it there that would be enough of a leg up that she'd be a surefire nominee.
Who knows though-Kidman could still sneak in at this point-less flashy performances from Oscar favorites have been in before.
Actress : Zellweger, Theron, Johanson, Nyongo, Ronan
Actor: Banderas, Phoenix, Driver, DiCaprio, Pryce
Supporting Actress: Lopez, Dern, Robbie, Pugh, Johanson
Supporting Actor: Pitt, Pacino, Pesci, Hopkins, Hanks
I agree with your actresses.
I wish I could go back to the 90s and tell myself that I would be rooting for Jennifer López and Joe Pesci in 2020.
I thing everyone is gonna be surprise and simultaneously disappointed with some of the acting nominations at the Oscars, especially in Best Actor.
I fear that the vote will be so spread out that we gonna get some really boring choices in the 3rd, 4th and 5th slots.
Weird nominations happen when the frontrunners (Phoenix and Driver in this case) hog a lot of number 1 votes - my favorite example of this is 2003 best actress when Charlize Theron and Diane Keaton were far ahead, the votes were so spread out that a perfomance being campaigned as supporting got in a lead.
Let's hope for the best and prepare for worst/weird/disappointing.
No Hanks again this year. Don't know who will take his spot, but that's my call.
I have to wonder given the chilly critical reception for BOMBSHELL whether Margot Robbie is really a lock in Supporting Actress?
i agree that parasite will end up with more than we expect, including an acting nom (or two, if they go wild).
i'm not confident in erivo in actress. she's likely to be nominated for song, and i wonder if that will overtake her her. last year, awarding gaga in song was enough for her contribution to the film, and this year, a single nomination for erivo might be it for her. i'm not sure about it. regardless, the (outside) possibility that best actress could be more than half people of color is very exciting!
Bates very much feels in. If it weren’t for the SAG confusion, she’d be an obvious lock. It will be an easy “we still love you” nom for a hairy role, even if the film has garnered some controversy.
i hope both Lupita and Alfre make it in and at the expense of Theron. That movie needs no noms, it's mediocrity incarnate. Margot should get in for OUATIH.
Victor - my #1 snub of my lifetime is Evan Rachel Wood for Thirteen, with Pam Grier/Jackie Brown following right behind. Can't let those go.
Nathaniel - you think Sandler is getting in? I'd love that, but I'm not sure at this point. You also have him down as having a Globe nom, but he didn't even manage that.
Actor
Banderas
DiCaprio
Driver
Bale
Phoenix
Actress
Zellweger
Ronan
Enviro
Nyongo
Johansson
S Actor
Pesci
Letts
Pitt
Pacino
Hopkins
S Actress
Robbie
Dern
Bates
Lopez
Pugh
It looks like we're gonna be surprised no matter what in each of the four races.
I feel like I don't have enough reasons to think Leonardo DiCaprio will get in, but I also can't think of any reasons why he would miss? Best Actor is gonna be crazy for sure and probably, like Victor S said, will end up being weird/disappointing.
I really want Zhao Shuzhen to get in, even though I'm starting to think The Farewell will get 0 nods and your current chart seems about right. If Scarlett gets in Supporting nods, could she become the frontrunner in Best Actress? She's been a constant presence in the precursors and after last years Olivia Colman victory over Glen, it does seem very Old Academy to hand the statue to Renée for a baity biopic.
Don't we all love overthinking about this?
Dream line up:
Kaitlyn Dever
Beanie Feldstein
Scarlett Johanson
Mary Kay Place
Charlize Theron
(Kay Place should win)
What I think will happen:
Erivo
Johanson
Nyongo
Theron
Zellweger
(Theron will win)
I hope that Lupita and Alfre gets in with Renee, ScarJo and Ronan. Hurray!
Earlier today I was amazed how good Christian Bale is as an actor. He WAS Ken Miles for me. Such a great performance
I am dreaming. I am DREAMING of Laura Dern getting snubbed. Her performance in Marriage Story is so 1 - 0 - 1 acting. My lineup is Lopez, Pugh, Robbie, DaVine and Zhao
I hope there will be a future rule about how much screen time a supporting performance can have. The rule is to protect the character actors. So with that in mind, I am rooting for Tracy Letts, Sterling, Aldis, Song, Shia
You're only predicting corresponding Best Actor/Actress nominations for 3 of your predicted BP nominees - Marriage Story, The Irishman, and Joker. I don't believe the correlation has ever been lower than 4/8 or 5/9 in the expanded BP era, so that would be unusual. It's worth considering Ronan, Leo, Bale, and Uncut Gems in BP.
Why are we treating Bombshell with kid gloves?
The movie is getting worse reviews than Harriet (67% vs. 73% RT; 65 vs. 66 Metacritic) and making much less money, especially when you consider the bigger budget.
It maps to Vice in so many ways, not least of which the lead actor's uncanny transformation (and Bale's was just as uncanny, truly) into a divisive public figure.
So Harriet is a hopeless turkey (How many times have we underscored this now?), Vice has no redeeming qualities (What positive thing did anyone have to say about that movie?), yet for some reason Bombshell is...just another contender in the race? Nothing to see here but some fine actresses doing fine work?
I totally feel that Adam Sandler will be nominated too. That performance has a lot of champions, and will surely garner a lot of #1 votes. The terrific box office will help too.
I hope they go all out for Parasite. Would love Song Kang-ho nominated, but would be ecstatic if one of the actresses got in supporting as well - Cho Yeo-jeong or Park So-dam would be fabulous.
If Ronan is bumping anyone out of actress, I think it'll be Nyong'o.
I'm expecting there to be a couple of wild nominations in best director too like Pawklikowski and PT Anderson from the past two years.
Looking over these, the double nomination for ScarJo caught my eye. Not sure why, but it doesn't quite seem right. Of the two, it seems the supporting nom for Jojo Rabbit is more in jeopardy. From the next tier down, the most likely seems to be Kidman to me, but a double nom in supporting for Bombshell seems far fetched too.
Except double acting noms happen most in supporting actress.
I love overthinking this :)
Maybe Anna Paquin's (almost) wordless performance in The Irishman will power through in the supporting actress category. In a strange way, I sometimes like the left-of-field nominees that the Academy vote.
If the hate for Zellweger getting a second is as strong as it is here and she ends up nominated and wins a globe or SAG to keep her chances up), who will voters gravitate to more. Will Theron be the beneficiary or Johansson? Are we here an accurate bellwether or just a hateful echo box?
Off-topic - Is it too soon to put in guesses/wishes for the Best Picture presenter?
I was happy with the choice of Julia Roberts last year. Would love to see her back for it again this year.
How about Sissy Spacek, Whoopi Goldberg, Goldie Hawn, or Sally Field? It's the 40 anniversary of Field's first win. Sigourney Weaver, Michelle Pfeiffer, or Anjelica Huston... all good choices!
I think Ronan, Pugh, Sandler and Sang Kang Ho are all getting in. Their movies are peaking at exactly the right time (especially Little Women and Uncut Gems). That being said, I just can’t see Sandler getting in over Leo. I hate to say it, but I’m getting very nervous for Antonio Banderas.
Best Picture
1917
THE IRISHMAN
MARRIAGE STORY
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
PARASITE
If the Academy nominates six films, then
JOJO RABBIT
If they nominate seven, then
JOKER
With eight nominations,
FORD V FERRARI
With nine,
LITTLE WOMEN
And when ten,
THE FAREWELL
Potential Spoiler- THE TWO POPES
Dark Horse- BOMBSHELL
Long Shot- A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Unanticipated Sneak-ins- KNIVES OUT, RICHARD JEWELL
Best Director
Noah Baumbach MARRIAGE STORY
Bong Joon-Ho PARASITE
Sam Mendes 1917
Martin Scorsese THE IRISHMAN
Quentin Tarantino ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Long Shot- Taika Waititi JOJO RABBIT
Unanticipated Sneak-ins- Greta Gerwig LITTLE WOMEN, Todd Phillips JOKER
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale FORD V FERRARI
Antonio Banderas PAIN AND GLORY
Leonardo DiCaprio ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver MARRIAGE STORY
Joaquin Phoenix JOKER
Potential Spoiler- Robert DeNiro THE IRISHMAN
Dark Horses- Taron Egerton ROCKETMAN, Eddie Murphy DOLEMITE IS MY NAME, Jonathan Pryce THE TWO POPES, Adam Sandler UNCUT GEMS
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo HARRIET
Scarlett Johansson MARRIAGE STORY
Lupita Nyong'O US
Charlize Theron BOMBSHELL
Renee Zellweger JUDY
Potential Spoiler- Saoirse Ronan LITTLE WOMEN
Dark Horse- Awkwafina THE FAREWELL
Unanticipated Sneak-in- Alfre Woodard CLEMENCY
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Anthony Hopkins THE TWO POPES
Al Pacino THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci THE IRISHMAN
Brad Pitt ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Dark Horse- Willem Dafoe THE LIGHTHOUSE
Unanticipated Sneak-ins- Jamie Foxx JUST MERCY, Song Kang-Ho PARASITE, John Lithgow BOMBSHELL
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Laura Dern MARRIAGE STORY
Scarlett Johansson JOJO RABBIT
Jennifer Lopez HUSTLERS
Florence Pugh LITTLE WOMEN
Margot Robbie BOMBSHELL
Potential Spoiler- Zhao Shuzhen THE FAREWELL
Dark Horses- Kathy Bates RICHARD JEWELL, Nicole Kidman BOMBSHELL
Long Shot- Annette Bening THE REPORT
Unanticipated Sneak-in- Da'Vine Joy Randolph DOLEMITE IS MY NAME
https://satyamshot.wordpress.com/2019/12/31/oscar-predix-for-the-year-in-film-2019/
I am not feeling Jojo Rabbit. Hence I do not think Scarlett Johansson is happening in supporting.
I'm guessing DiCaprio gets in over either Sandler or DeNiro, and I think Hopkins may over ... well, not sure, someone who is not Pitt or Pesci. I really don't know what to make of people's reactions to the Eastwood, but think there's a decent chance Bates knocks ScarJo out of Supporting.
I am preparing myself for Hanks to be snubbed. I just loved his performance but cannot shake the feeling that he's going to miss in the end.
And I know a lot of people are predicting a shocking Theron snub but I hope not. It is easily my favorite Lead Actress performance of last year.
JF - I have seen seventy-eight 2019 releases. Bombshell was the only one that made me feel as though I'd truly wasted two hours. It had no value whatsoever and felt like a movie for people who feel Adam McKay's films are too sophisticated.
Harriet and Vice are better films, and Erivo and Bale give better performances than Theron. I felt Tubman and Cheney were real people; Theron's Megyn Kelly was just an empty impersonation. They might as well nominate Alec Baldwin for doing his Trump on SNL.
I think people are going easy on Bombshell because it has a cast you want to root for. Not just the three stars, but Kate McKinnon, Allison Janney, Robin Weigert, Holland Taylor, etc. - all of whom were wasted in it, as was Kidman. I recall Nathaniel complaining that The Post did not give most of its cast much to do, but to my mind, Bombshell was much worse on that account. Imagine taking an actress like Janney, fresh off her Oscar win, and dumping her in a thankless two-scene impersonation.
I would LOVE Hanks and Kang-ho to both get nominated. Within the realm of possibility, my ideal lineup would be your current Best Supporting Actor predictions with Dafoe in pace of Pacino, and that's it.
Awkwafina
Scarlett Johansson
Lupita Nyong’o
Charlize Theron
Renée Zellweger
Antonio Banderas
Leonardo DiCaprio
Adam Driver
Taron Egerton
Joaquin Phoenix
Laura Dern
Scarlett Johansson
Jennifer Lopez
Margot Robbie
Zhao Shuzhen
Tom Hanks
Al Pacino
Joe Pesci
Brad Pitt
Song Kang-ho
I am not falling for Erivo. Renee is the default mediocre biopic nom this year. Still pulling for Awkwafina.
Total nope for Sandler. I am fine with Two Popes snubs.
I too think Theron and Hanks will be the big snubs this year,Bombshell is literally that and LW is being much better recieved and is making money.Did ABDITN even come out
I am thinking about a Anna Paquin nominating lately. But she is not on Oscar reminder list. Her name cannot be found on Netflix’s fyc. Marina de Tariva was on last year’s reminder list, so her nomination makes sense. But can Oscar voters nominate an actress who is not on the list? Does anyone know if this is possible?
Renee, Scarlett, Saoirse, Lupita, Alfre
Christian, Driver, Joaquin, Antonio, Eddie
Brad, Willem, Shia, Song, Al
Jennifer, Laura, Zhao, Florence, Scarlett
Erivo will miss and to be honest I don't believe she is worthy of making it. Everybody complaints about Zellweger that gives a very good performance in a decent film but not for Erivo that gives a mediocre performance in a formulaic bad film.
I believe the Best Actress nominees will be:
Saoirse Ronan
Scarlett Johansson
Lupita Nyong’o
Charlize Theron
Renée Zellweger
next in line: Awkwafina
I'm having a really hard time picturing Sandler getting a nomination. He's not even all that great and the film is annoying as all get-go.
Paul Walter Hauser and Taron Edgerton for Best Actor
Charlize Theron for Best Actress
Zazu Shuzhen for Best Supporting Actress
Hoping Hoping Hoping
I'm with you in most respects. There are definitely some locks, although fewer than you'd normally see in Lead. The year, in general, feels unusually unsettled - which actually makes it all the more exciting.
The only person I'm prepared to view as a lock in Lead Actor is Joaquin Phoenix. I expect Adam Driver to land a berth - the only reason I can't regard him as an ironclad lock is that, when you have a category as insanely competitive as this, often the flashier performances prevail over the subtler ones. Beyond Phoenix, I honestly have no idea. Something tells me Egerton is in a stronger position than 9th place, although he still seems like more of a spoiler than a favorite.
Both my heart and my head are telling me that Saoirse Ronan is probably good to go. The film is peaking at exactly the right time, and all but assured a handsome nominations haul. Add to that she's sort of where Jennifer Lawrence was a few years ago, with the wind at her back and a ton of banked good will - and her selection seems like a safer bet than it did even at the start of last week. That leaves me torn between Cynthia Erivo and Lupita Nyong'o in terms of who draws the short straw. Kaluuya's nomination two years ago notwithstanding, the horror genre is still a tough sell for nominations, and Us isn't in as strong position as Get Out was - it will be a major surprise to see it place in any other category. I'd lean more heavily towards Erivo, if not for the fact that the film left so many feeling underwhelmed. So there's a still an outside lane for Awkwafina - probably the favorite for the Globe win - since the other two look vulnerable.
If any category is going to serve up a totally out-of-left-field pick that prompts a gasp in the press room, it's going to be Supporting Actor. Three slots are reserved for the 3 P's - Pitt, Pacino and Pesci - with the two remaining spots completely up for grabs. It wouldn't even be too much of a shocker if someone not even on your chart at all managed to slip in there - say, Archie Yates or Richard Madden. Nothing is off the table.
Supporting Actress feels comparatively less volatile, if only because the race seems to have boiled down to about 8 candidates with any realistic shot at it. Like most people, Laura Dern, Jennifer Lopez and Margot Robbie are locked and loaded, and given the ascendance of Little Women (six nominations in total? Seven? Eight?), I'm feeling almost as sure about Florence Pugh - who's having a phenomenal year. The fifth slot is a bit of a junk ball, although for whatever reason, a Scarlett double still feels like a reach, given how inevitable her presence in the Lead Actress lineup feels. I'm leaning slightly towards Kathy Bates over Annette Bening and Zhao Shuzhen, but I'm holding off on turning inmy ballot for the office pool for as long as I can!
Only 8 days to go!!!
I happened to be looking at Al Pacino's upcoming films, given that he's begun doing interesting projects again of late (Peele's Amazon series Hunters is what's next); and I just realized that The Irishman happens to be his 50th starring role in films. I'm excluding small appearances and documentaries, and of course TV. Quite a film to mark your 50th I'd think, and your 50th to mark your first collaboration with Martin Scorsese. Not a bad narrative for an Oscar.
Susie Q — I think the beneficiary of any best actress backlash against Renee, Charlize or Scarlett would be Lupita and Saoirse. I think Lupita in particular can still win this whole dang race. And I’m hoping Ronan makes a play at the Globe.
Actor
Phoenix
Driver
Banderas
Bale
DiCaprio
on the bubble: Egerton, Sandler, Murphy, Pryce
Actress
Zellweger
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Nyongo
on the bubble: Erivo, Awkafina, Woodard, Kay Place
Supp Actor
Pitt
Pesci
Pacino
Song
Hanks
on the bubble: Hopkins, Foxx, LeBeouf, Letts
Supp Actress
Lopez
Dern
Robbie
Pugh
Johansson
on the bubble: Zhao, Kidman, Cho Yeo Jeong, Lee Jun Eun
Trivia: Kay Place & Gerwig just won National Society of Film Critcs!!! I tink Gerwig will likely crack the director top five!!!