How often do two top Globe victories translate to Oscar gold?
Monday, January 6, 2020 at 11:00PM
by Abe Fried-Tanzer
Sam Mendes had a great night on Sunday when he took home both Best Director and Best Motion Picture – Drama for his war epic 1917. That two-hander worked out very well for him exactly twenty years ago for his debut feature, American Beauty, since he went on to repeat at the Oscars. Winning both prizes at both ceremonies, however, doesn’t actually happen often.
Between Mendes’ two bookends, that feat has only occurred twice...
2003 and 2008 both featured undisputed frontrunners, in the form of The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire. Their directors, Peter Jackson and Danny Boyle, picked up Globe and Oscar wins without any trouble. Three other times, a pair of Globe wins in these crucial categories led to just one corresponding Oscar win for Brokeback Mountain, Argo, and The Revenant, while the three remaining times, Avatar, The Social Network, and Boyhood won neither Oscar. There’s also been one time in the past twenty years that the Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical winner also took Best Director, and that was La La Land, which we all know didn’t end up as the Oscar victor for Best Picture despite what was initially announced.
The winner of the Best Director Globe race has also gone on to win the Oscar a handful more times, including when Million Dollar Baby, The Departed, and The Shape of Water paired their solo director wins at the Globes with a Best Picture victory at the Oscars that didn’t happen at the Globes. Brokeback Mountain and The Revenant did the reverse, where they couldn’t translate their top category wins to the Oscars despite Ang Lee and Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu winning both director prizes (the same thing happened with Chazelle). Infamously, Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated after winning the Globe, and Argo went on to a Best Picture Oscar anyway.
Interestingly, the only director in the past twenty years to win a Globe and an Oscar for directing without his film winning the top award with either group is Alfonso Cuarón – and he did it twice, for Gravity and Roma.
What does all this mean for this year’s Oscar race?
It’s definitely not 2003 or 2008. The Best Picture race is competitive. But is Mendes best likened to Clint Eastwood, whose Million Dollar Baby and American Sniper (not nominated for directing) both premiered late and changed the Oscar race, or to James Cameron, who had a lot of buzz going on for Avatar until critical love from earlier in the year propelled Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker to Oscar victory? History tells us that if the PGA and DGA pick a different film and director, 1917 won’t win. At this point, it’s too early to tell, but this feels like late-breaking energy that might not have enough steam if another film (Parasite, anyone?) can muster enough support.
Reader Comments (6)
This year has always felt very analogous for 2015 to me -
1917 standing in for The Revenant; late-breaking, light on story but director-cinematographer driven. Breaks late and is the most obviously Director-y, and I think it'll win the same places - Globes and BAFTA. Takes Director at Oscars but loses Picture to something more actor/screenplay driven.
Parasite, unfortunately, is Mad Max: Fury Road. The critics champ, a directors vehicle, but slightly too distinct and unusual to win a consensus. Takes Critics Choice Director (and likely Picture), but ultimately might falter at the Oscars in favour of something more safe.
I once thought Marriage Story would be this year's Spotlight - cast-driven, screenplay winner, strong buzz out of TIFF - but now I think this year's Spotlight might be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Broadly quite likeable, a likely Screenplay winner and SAG Ensemble winner, plus headed for an Acting win a la Moonlight or Green Book. If it takes SAG Ensemble, I think I would feel pretty good predicting it to win Picture, despite its release date. Watch out for DiCaprio to miss in favour of actors playing real people though.
Hell, Cuarón wasn't even eligible for Roma since it was a foreign language film.
I hope not. That's all.
Could it be a passion pick?
I think 1917 is an astounding cinematic achievement. Industry folks are just now catching up with it and I think its going to continue to do very, very well. PARASITE is a foreign film. It will always have that going against it in terms of a Best Director or Best Picture win. It has a category (International Film) that voters can easily check off and move on. I actually do think PARASITE has a major shot at taking the Ensemble SAG prize, but I still don't see that translating into a Best Picture or Best Director Oscar win.
It will help "!917" to sell tickets