Sunday
Oct042020
Oscar Prediction Updates: Picture, Director, Score, Song, Sound
Sunday, October 4, 2020 at 3:02PM 
Just as we'd given up on Minari being released for this year's awards season, a trailer shows up (albeit without a release date attached) and just as we'd decided that No Time to Die was going to be a hit in the craft categories -- especially given the dearth of big studio event films -- it gets delayed until Easter 2021. But we soldier on, happily, with the Oscar charts.
It's looking like a great year for black cinema (multiple films in play), a great year for Netflix (which didn't have the movie theaters closing problem), a good year for Nomadland, but otherwise things are still very uncertain.
The following charts are all updated...
- International Feature Overview
- International Submissions Pt 1: Albania through Greece
- International Submissions Pt 2: Germany through Norway
- International Submissions Pt 3: Pakistan through Vietnam
What'cha think? Know of any original song contenders? (It's always so difficult to track them)...
Reader Comments (22)
Yay ! New predictions. For original song I love Queen Bee by Johnny Flynn in Emma. Also read somewhere the Nomadland music is from previous albums of the artist called Seven Days Walking. Really looking forward to I Carry You With Me especially with your director ranking so high.
I've been trying to look for this info as I feel like it has been announced already, but do you know if Amazon will be submitting the Small Ace anthology for the Oscars or Emmys?
The Oscars won't be presential. At this point we have to stop lying ourselves.
FYI Minari has the wrong description on the BP chart
I feel completely disconnected this year, so your services are becoming essential :)
i love that what traditionally plays against smaller films is now working in its favour, letting diverse movies more in contention. The Critics Awards and Indie Spirits will be fascinating.
MJS -- fixed. thanks for the heads up.
Mandrake -- i assume they'll do what the Emmys did if things are still this way in April.
Chris -- i can only assume Emmys as it is for an anthology series and therefore a television event. But i dont know for certain.
JW -- it might be wishful thinking with Ewing but i can see the Spirits really grabbing at that one. It's so good.
Some of the song possibilities:
The Other Side (from Trolls World Tour) - SZA & Justin Timberlake
Love Myself (The High Note) - Tracee Ellis Ross
Loyal Brave True (Mulan) - Cristina Aguilera
Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy) - Janelle Monae
from Eurovision, the obvious pick is Husavik (My Hometown) and the song from Onward is Carried Me With You (Brandi Carlile).
Less likely but still eligible is The Plan (Tenet) by Travis Scott
Oh, and Shirley is an Adapted Screenplay - based on a novel by Susan Scarf Merrell
You might want to take off "The Prom" from your predications for Best Original Song and replace it with "Free" from The One and Only Ivan seeing how it has music and lyrics by Diane Warren a very Oscar nomination darling.
You know, I was just thinking about this. Baring another mass reschedule, this year really isn't looking that bad! At most the only catagory that seems to be in a fuck is Visual Effects, but most of these films either have already got released or have a qualifying date set!
Look, I'm trying to be optimistic.
I love the song from "Onward!" Very moving.
Psst! I'm not sure that plot for "Tenet" is what the movie is about. "Hillbilly Elegy" maybe, but not "Tenet".
I'd prefer Elisabeth get the nod for "The Invisible Man" over "Shirley".
Something to read between the Smackdowns and the Monty series. And any non Oscar pieces which take precedence over this stuff. Thanks!
Awwww thanks !
Possible Best Song: From the Netflix film Jingle Jangle, This Day by Usher and Kiana Ledé
Nathaniel, you have the plot synopsis for Hillbilly Elegy under Tenet. Just FYI!
Faint hopes that Hillbilly Elegy is brilliant and will land a best pic nom while Adams & Close garner Oscars. Very faint.
rob - fixed.
whunk -- i totally thought it would be a biggie until Nomadland rolled around. Now i think it will probably look very shallow in comparison but we'll see.
I'm curious to see how Minari will do since I honestly didn't expect it to win the grand prize at Sundance even though I liked it a lot. I think it's coming out at the right time, and I hope that smaller distributors will be rewarded for still debuting their independent films in a non-theatrical setting. It would be great to see some truly diverse and inclusive choices this year.
And of course Dune has just been pushed to next year, freeing up a number of technical spots...
Dune is gone. Time to start over, Nathaniel!
There's a few original songs that I see having a chance not on your list. The One and Only Ivan has a Diane Warren song. Mulan had Loyal Brave True and Disney might push it also.
One Night in Miami will have an original it seems, so that's something to look for. And also Janelle Monae did something for the All In: The Fight for Democracy doc.
Just saying: as you point out that all of Taiwan noms are Lee’s films, maybe you should point out that all of Sweden’s wins are Bergman’s. By your writings i know you don’t have any kind of bias but when you leave this out it may give the impression you do. You are welcome not to post this if you find it offensive or trolling. As a matter of fact, i prefer if you don’t. It is a personal comment to you that i hope you consider. You have the best movie site and I write this as an admirer. Sorry if i cause you any distress. Love and peace.